Russians Politics: Hidden Wrestling Behind Closed Doors
Interview with Nikolai Zlobin , Center for Defense Information
Center for Russian Political Monitoring, Ruspolit.ru, October 31, 2003

On October 31, 2003 the newspaper Izvestia published a column written by a well-known political scientist and publicist Nikolai Zlobin. In this column, the author, one of the most influential American experts on Russia and the CIS, asserts that Washington’s moderate reaction at the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky is a symptom of the continuing decline of US interest in Russia. A Ruspolit.ru correspondent contacted Nikolai Zlobin by phone and asked the leading expert at the Washington Center for Defense Information to answer our questions.  

Q: How would you describe the reaction of the American public at Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s arrest and Voloshin’s resignation as President’s Chief of Staff?

The reaction is rather inconsistent. On the one hand, the White House is obviously trying to assuage its reaction and act with an air of caution. The White House, the State Department and the National Security Council are all trying to convey the potential harm brought about by Khodorkovsky’s arrest on Russia ’s image, which would frighten foreign investors away from Russia. And, I think, that the clear message of the White House has already been delivered to the Kremlin. The issue is presented as such that the arrest not only affects American, but all potential investments in Russia . Russia should decide whether it will live by the previously declared rules or will constantly change them. In the case of the latter not only American, but no capital will enter Russia . It is known that the dollar is both a very daring and very cowardly currency, which runs from the slightest uncertainty.

If we look at the broader picture, the reaction in the foreign policy establishment is much sharper and negative. It boils down not only to a possible loss of investments, but also to a possible revision of more fundamental questions, which, it seemed, were already resolved. Specifically, we are talking about the possibility of revision of privatization results, property redistribution, as well as a return to manipulation of laws for political means. The last especially troubles America - still fresh are the memories of how this occurred in the Soviet Union , and quickly recalled are KGB tricks. It turns out that all these problems are not solved, but simply pushed into the closet. Unpredictability, for which Russia is known, is the most terrifying for Americans.  

Q: Yesterday Russian news-agencies broadcasted the announcement of Richard Pearl, a well-known right-wing American politician, in which he stated that Russia has lost all sense by throwing one of its most successful businessman into prison. Pearl also implied that after Khodorkovsky’s arrest it makes sense to escort Russia out of the Big Eight.  

Pearl’s announcement will be perceived as an exotic, irritated reaction not so much at the events in Russia, but the attitude of the present White House toward Russia. But I would not dismiss him altogether. Pearl is an extremely clever person, who calculates things well into the future, and this announcement may become the small stone that starts a rockslide. At the time, Brzezinski's announcements were also perceived as exotic.  

Q: You and other American analysts repeatedly spoke about the fact that the United States has not decided precisely how to perceive Putin. The President, Congress, State Department, and the Special Services are all taking a close look at the Russian President, trying to define who stands behind him. Have the October 2003 demarches brought more clarity to this issue?  

I think that for now the American elite has not yet resolved the question of who exactly stands behind Putin. The question that concerns American experts and politicians more pertains to President Putin’s ability to ensure the operation of programs initiated by him, as well as whom he will rely upon for their implementation. It is clear that Putin’s first term of presidency was disappointing - a big swing was taken, but it vanished somewhere. There is no administrative, military, property or energy reform. Even as a result of relatively successful reforms – pension, for example – the power and money still remained in the hands of the state. The question arises, where will Putin find the political will needed for the implementation of those reforms, the undertaking of which will require officials to share and compromise.  

Q: Do Americans find Khodorkovsky interesting? We have some PR people, hostile toward YUKOS and its president, who have, for the past couple of days, been actively disseminating a version according to which Khodorkovsky tried to get support from so-called “republican individuals” in the US.  

Over the past couple of years Khodorkovsky has managed to become one of the few people from Russia seen by Americans alongside Putin and Anna Kournikova. He is unwound, very clever, conducts himself correctly in the US , and this plays a very significant role. In America Khodorkovsky met with high ranking representatives in the administration and in business, and naturally certain promises were given to him. Certainly not on the level of “don’t worry, we’ll pull you out of prison,” but promises of cooperation. In the American foreign policy establishment there are relatively powerful forces, which will devote a maximum effort to protect Khodorkovsky. And not because he has paid them to do so, but because they believe that they are doing the right thing both for themselves and for Russia . But I think that today Bush’s attitude toward Putin will, in many respects, restrain sharp protests.  

Q: If one was to look upon the current situation in our country from the outside, is there a belief that Russia has entered into a uniquely deep crisis?  

The very procedure of Khodorkovsky’s arrest has made a huge impression – especially as he was not accused of murder or robbery. A deep analysis of the situation is a matter of the near future; the crisis of Russian-American relations caused by Khodorkovsky’s arrest is only beginning to show. But the sense that a political crisis is unraveling in Russia is already starting to form. Voloshin's resignation is yet another reason for concern. There arises a feeling that former times are returning where everything was solved behind closed doors. Unfortunately, even the very reflection of Americans concerning a possible crisis in Russia heavily disturbs its image in the US . The notion that with Voloshin's resignation something has broken down in the well thought-out mechanism of delivery of results in future elections, first of all in the Duma - they are much less predictable than they were a week ago. Presidential elections are even less predictable, not in terms of results, but in terms of what program will be established for the second term, seeing as how it is precisely the President’s administration that formulates this program. And while Voloshin's views were known, today the program is hung in mid-air.  

Nikolai Zlobin is the Director of Russian and Asian Programs at the Center for Defense Information, and editor-in-chief of the international news agency Washington Profile.

Translated by Olga Levitsky, CDI Research Assistant.