Russia and America: The Post-Iraq Relationship
An Interview with Nikolai Zlobin
Dr. Nikolai V. Zlobin, nzlobin@cdi.org
[The following is based on a discussion that aired on the Russian radio station "Ekho Moskvy" on July 31, 2003. Nikolai Zlobin is the director of Russian and Eurasian Programs at the Center for Defense Information in Washington D.C., and editor-in-chief of the Washington Profile News Agency.]
In your opinion, how do Americans feel about
Russia
, now that the military campaign in
Iraq
is almost over?
I would say they feel sympathy and indifference, although some things do
bring out emotions. In part, the American public was not very pleased with the
realization that
Russia
is not as much of a reliable ally as the
US
thought. An unreliable friend is worse than a reliable enemy. When you arrive
in
Russia
, you get the impression that from
Moscow
's point of view, the
US
is deeply concerned with figuring out ways to make life in
Russia
more difficult. There is a certain sense of paranoia. But when you come back to
Washington
, it's very rare to come across someone talking about
Russia
, or to get an official, like, say, Wolfowitz, to say something about
Russia
, because the issue is so insignificant to them. That's a fact of life, and
whether you like it or not is a different issue. I wouldn't exaggerate the
directions American policy takes as a manifestation of some anti-Russian policy.
That's just not the case, and believe me,
Russia
today, unfortunately, occupies a very insignificant place on the political map
of
America
.
And
Iraq
was the cause? But
Russia
was simply defending her economic interests. Isn't that only natural?
Regarding Russian policies in
Iraq
, I agree with those who say there was no coherent economic policy on
Iraq
whatsoever - just like there wasn't a coherent political stance. Everyone,
Washington including, was caught off guard at the amount of improvisation, which
changed every day and every week. Various politicians made various statements,
but no one knew what the Kremlin wanted, or what
Russia
would do: some spoke about the impossibility of a veto in the Security Council,
others said the veto was inevitable. For a nuclear power, for a country as large
and respected as
Russia
, improvisation in foreign policy is unacceptable.
Iraq
showed that
Russia
has no strategic, economic, political, or even intellectual coherence in its
foreign policy - only improvisation.
Yet
Russia
and the
US
are returning to the period of mutual understanding that began after
September 11. Is that still an important tendency?
Two things, in my opinion, bring
Russia
and the
US
closer together, and
Iraq
has already showed this, in part.
Russia
and the
US
both see their foreign policy primarily from the viewpoint of their national
security. The others, especially the Europeans, do not. Their foreign policy is
based on socio-economic, ideological, educational, and cultural factors, and God
knows what else.
Russia
and the
US
(and the latter especially after 9/11) are both two countries that have placed
military security at the forefront of their foreign policy. Here we have an
opportunity for maneuvering and discussion between
Moscow
and
Washington
. Secondly, I think that
Russia
is very close to the
US
in their understanding of international terrorism. We both view international
terrorism as a sworn enemy, one that must be fought to the bitter end. This is
in contrast to the Europeans, who see international terrorism as a criminal
structure.
I would add, and they fight it with law
enforcement measures.
Yes. That's why it's difficult for Americans to come to terms with Europeans.
But Russians - remember "we'll wipe them out in the outhouse" - are
easier to find a mutual language with. The issue is a wide-scale war against
terrorism. Americans are for such a war, and in fact they are already conducting
it, which annoys the Europeans. I wouldn't say that
Russia
and the
US
have common threats - just a similar approach to these threats.
It's not surprising that
Moscow
will repeat, every once in a while, that
Russia
is not interested in an American defeat. What is the response to that in the
US
?
I would agree completely that the fate of the
US
, and support of the
US
, is extremely important to us. I would only make two comments on unipolarity.
One often encounters, especially in
Russia
, the idea that a unipolar world is something to struggle against. But one
cannot simply build a multipolar world if it's not there. You cannot build one
by force - it's not a political decision. It is a reality. If it's not there,
it's just not there, and it's pointless to fight that. And the second factor is
the danger that
America
will overstretch its forces too thin. And that's where, by the way, arises the
idea within the American political elite to build functional pro-American models
like
Japan
in 1945-46.
Iraq
was chosen as such a model in the
Middle East
not only because of the economy.
Do you believe in the possibility of
democratizing the Arab world in a Western image?
There is not a single Arab country in the region that has a democratic
market-based government. And Americans dream about creating such a country.
Iraq
is the best choice in this plan. In case of success, it will be difficult for
neighboring countries to uphold their current regimes. Look at what happened in
Asia
after the emergence of
Japan
. Hong Kong,
Taiwan
,
Singapore
,
China
- they all began changing. People used to say about that nothing could be
changed in
Japan
, that it's a medieval country of samurais. And look - half a century later,
it's the second largest economy in the world. That's what
America
is trying to do in
Iraq
.
Many in
Moscow
would disagree; they might say
America
is only furthering its own interests. What should
Russia
do to protect its economic interests in
Iraq
?
Interests, including economic interests, are either immediate or strategic.
The inability to protect strategic interests is a problem for
Russia
. If short-term political sympathies and antipathies prevail, there is a great
danger of losing this economically profitable region completely. Russian
interests in
Iraq
should not be intertwined with the figure of Saddam Hussein, which is what
happened.
No one argues that
Russia
and the
US
should unite efforts in safeguarding national security. But how? Security is
such a broad concept.
That's true, and I'll give you an example of how complex and contradictory
the problem of providing national security truly is. Security is not just
soldiers and missiles. Look at Bush's recent visit to fight AIDS in
Africa
. Why did he go? It's simple: AIDS in
Africa
is most common in the army and police forces, among young people in
Africa
. What would happen if
Africa
was left without armies and police forces? It would mean the appearance of
terrorism, possible destabilization, and a national security threat to
Russia
and the
US
.
Many analysts in
Moscow
think that
Russia
has no reliable allies. What do you think?
This is true,
Russia
has practically no reliable friends on the international scene. No one will
jump to defend her. Why is the
US
, after all, with all their drawbacks, with all the negative things Russians
could say about her foreign policy, closer to
Russia
than many others? But who if not
America
-
China
,
Europe
?
Europe
would not move a finger to help defend
Russia
, particularly on the southern border.
China
has even more of a sit-and-wait approach.
Japan
? Of course not,
Japan
is too upset at the inability to resolve the islands issue.
And what do you think about this idea: Russia
would close herself off, and in this Eurasian apostasy relinquish the North
Caucasus, her influence in the Middle East, etc - in order to guarantee national
security.
The
Soviet
Union
was a Eurasian power, and look what happened.
And the downscaling of Russian territory, I think, would be detrimental not just
for
Russia
, but for the entire world. And I know that Washington
is extremely interested in strengthening Russia precisely from the viewpoint of
the Kremlin being able to control regions that no one else can control. And if
Russia
leaves…if not
Russia
, then who? And the problem of global security and
stability would just hang in the air, and this would damage US national
security. Americans, by the way, are very interested in strengthening the
Russian army, so that the army can fulfill all the functions it's supposed to.
They're interested in strengthening the armies of Central Asia, and they are
spending a lot of money on creating armies and police enforcement in the region.
It's the same in Iraq - Americans are solving the problem of their own national
security by creating national armies in other states. Because if the army is not
there, who will fight terrorism? Who will control the borders?