TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

The Humanitarian Cost of a War in Iraq

Victoria Garcia, Research Assistant, vgarcia@cdi.org

Iraq has been plagued by more than two decades of repression and devastation; it has witnessed three major armed conflicts—the Iraq-Iran war, the 1991 Gulf War, and the strife following Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait—as well as almost twelve years of UN sanctions, leaving the country’s infrastructure weak and its people heavily dependent on government food rations. Consequently, a humanitarian catastrophe will only worsen if Iraq is attacked. Although the exact consequences cannot yet be measured, the UN and relief agencies worldwide are trying to calculate the real cost of another war in Iraq in order to prepare for what may lie ahead.

This kind of planning has thus far been politically unfeasible for both U.S. officials and the NGO community. In order for any U.S.-based organization to visit Iraq and become actively engaged in contingency planning, it must receive an authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department. The Bush Administration has been hesitant to give these groups permission to go to Iraq because it would be seen as a step closer to war, especially as the United States insists that the decision to wage war has not yet been made. Moreover, humanitarian groups do not want to be seen as helping plan for a war. But if war breaks out in the next few weeks, relief workers will not have sufficient resources inside Iraq to execute an emergency response plan.

The United Nations—one of the only bodies that maintain a continuous relationship with the Iraqi government through its oil-for-food program—recently issued a confidential report outlining how UN agencies and relief groups might cope with the humanitarian crisis that would come out of an attack on Iraq. The report foresees grave humanitarian consequences derived from "a large scale and protracted ground offensive, supported by aerial and conventional bombardment." Major results include the outbreak of disease "of epidemic if not pandemic proportions;" several hundred thousand war casualties; the shortage of medical items and personnel; a flood of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs); massive food shortages; and the lack of potable water.

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and World Food Programme estimate that over three million people will be in dire need of food and will require "therapeutic feeding," specifically women and children. According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates, close to 900,000 refugees will require assistance in addition to the 130,000 existing refugees in Iraq, and some two million IDPs will require temporary shelter. The electricity network is expected to be "seriously degraded" resulting from surgical airstrikes. If this occurs, the Iraqi water and sewage systems, which depend on electricity and are already in a weary state, would collapse, leaving millions of people vulnerable to diseases and epidemics. To that end, UNICEF estimates that approximately 39 percent of the population will need potable water in the short term. In an attempt to reduce the impact of a possible war on the Iraqi population, UNICEF is undertaking a 5 day campaign, February 23-27, to vaccinate four million children against measles and polio. Additionally, UNICEF has had several hundred tons of supplies brought into Iraq including food, medicine and water.

The UN report also clearly points that comparisons to the humanitarian crisis created by the 1991 Gulf War are extremely inadequate because almost 12 years of UN sanctions, aimed at forcing the country’s disarmament, have left over 60% of the population, or 16 million people, almost totally dependent on government handouts for their basic needs. For this very reason, an interruption in food supplies would lead to a severe food crisis, and according to UN estimates food will need to be provided to approximately 5.4 million in the short term, and eventually to at least 23 million.

While these staggering statistics are only estimations, the damage to the Iraqi people would undoubtedly be great if Iraq is attacked. Even a short-term interruption of water and sewage services or the oil-for-food program may prove to be beyond the means of international aid groups and the U.S. military.

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

Court Throws Out Suit Barring Attack on Iraq — The U.S. District Court has thrown out a lawsuit filed by six members of Congress and three unidentified members of the military and their families that would have barred the United States from any attack against Iraq without a declaration of war by Congress. In blocking the suit U.S. District Judge Joseph Tauro rejected the contention that the president must have congressional authority to order American forces into combat, saying that "case law makes clear that the Congress does not have the exclusive right to determine whether or not the United States engages in war." Congress has not formally declared a war since World War II.

Confusion Over Role of U.S. Troops in the Philippines — It was unclear this week what the actual role would be for U.S. forces deploying to the Philippines, after earlier Pentagon assertions that U.S. troops would be actively involved in combat operations against the Islamic extremist movement Abu Sayyaf. Philippine foreign secretary Blas Ople denied this, blaming earlier Philippine statements to the contrary on junior officers "who don't know what they are talking about." Meanwhile Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis reaffirmed his earlier statements, saying, "as we have stated, the U.S. and Philippine governments have agreed to conduct combined operations in the southern Philippines to disrupt and defeat the Abu Sayyaf group."

Colombian Rebels Hold Three Americans as POWs — Colombian guerillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) say that they are holding three Americans kidnapped after their plane crashed last week, and that the three are being held as prisoners of war. The Administration has identified the three as federal employees working for the Pentagon. FARC leaders claimed that they shot down the plane, but administration officials said the plane had engine trouble. Another American, whose identity is being withheld, and a Colombian Army sergeant were shot dead in the incident. Administration officials have requested additional U.S. troops be sent to take part in a search and rescue effort for the three survivors. Officials acknowledged that with the new deployment the total number of U.S. military personnel in Colombia will exceed the Congressionally set limit of 400 troops. Congress allowed for that cap to be broken in an emergency.

Court Dismisses TRW Missile Defense Lawsuit — A U.S. District Court has dismissed a lawsuit brought against TRW for allegedly falsifying results of 1996 tests of its missile detection software, after the U.S. government argued that the case could jeopardize national security. The seven-year old suit was brought by former TRW employee Nira Schwartz, a senior engineer, who accused the company of reporting that its software worked, even after it was incapable of differentiating incoming enemy warheads from decoys or airborne debris in tests. While an FBI investigation found that TRW did not attempt to defraud the government, a report by the General Accounting Office last year said that the company exaggerated its testing results.

U.S. May Use Massive New Bomb in Iraq — If the United States goes to war with Iraq, it may debut a huge new conventional bomb, according to ABCNEWS.com (Feb. 26). Called the "Massive Ordnance Air Burst" (MOAB) bomb, it is a larger, guided version of the Vietnam-era "Daisy Cutter." Like the Daisy Cutter, the MOAB would be dropped from the back of a C-130 transport aircraft, but unlike its predecessor, the MOAB would not be attached to a parachute and is equipped with a satellite guidance system. It could possibly be used for attacks against underground hardened defense facilities, or massed formations of enemy armor. Sources estimate that the MOAB is a 21,000-pound bomb; the Daisy Cutter is roughly 15,000 pounds.

Quotation of the Week — "Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld says there is "no doubt in my mind" that North Korea has a missile that could reach the U.S. Maybe so. But hasty construction of untested missile defenses is not a reasonable response. Without testing, the Pentagon -- and U.S. taxpayers -- has no way of knowing whether the defense system is just a high-tech Maginot Line, providing the illusion without the substance of national security," editorial in the Los Angeles Times, February 25, 2003.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"Issues Overshadowed by Iraq"

SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV examines the timely issues that affect the United States together with foreign experts from around the world.

As the U.S. prepares for a possible war with Iraq, what issues do other countries fear will be ignored in the process? Do countries in the Middle East fear for the stability of their governments? Do countries in Africa feel that issues their surrounding development will be ignored as a result of a conflict? Do countries in Europe feel the United States has a sufficient plan for peacekeeping and rebuilding in Iraq?

Joining Superpower moderator Lisa Simeone to discuss these issues will be Mark Thompson, national security correspondent for Time magazine; Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Philip Tazi, Washington Correspondent from the Cameroon Herald.

If you would like to submit a question or comment to be read on this week's show, please send an e-mail to feedback@superpowertv.org.

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