In Memoriam
It is with the deepest sadness that we must share news of the death of our dear friend and colleague, Rear Admiral Eugene J. Carroll, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.), who passed away on February 19. Adm. Carroll joined CDI after a 35 year naval career, and was with the organization for 17 years, serving briefly as its director, until he retired in 2001. Even after retiring Adm. Carroll remained active in the organization up until his death, regularly writing and speaking on critical national security issues. Adm. Carroll was a gentleman of wisdom, wit and grace. We miss him greatly.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

What Can the Coming War Tell Us About the State of Military Transformation?

Marcus Corbin, Senior Analyst, mcorbin@cdi.org

Much discussion of military "transformation" focuses on how the introduction of new information and communication systems -- intended mainly to provide ever faster and more complete targeting data -- is proceeding. But a broader concept of transformation might be: "how is military preparation for the complex, political, multilateral, semi-combat scenarios that seem to be replacing the more straightforward ‘shooting wars’ of earlier times going"? The coming war against Iraq actually fits into the former category, given the widespread effects that U.S. actions will have on the war on terrorism, the clash with fundamentalist Islam, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, views of the United States among allied peoples and in the Muslim world, and the global economy, to name a few. So what might the course of the war tell us about progress in this broader concept of military transformation? Five issues follow.

Grand Strategy
How well will the nation’s political and uniformed leaders use the military tool of national security? Will they use it as a blunt club, and so hinder U.S. efforts in diplomatic, economic, and social arenas? Or will they use it in a restrained way, in cooperation with other tools?

Things to Watch: How sophisticated is the bombing plan? If the civilian infrastructure of Iraq -- roads, bridges, railroads, waterways, airfields, power plants, refineries, factories, and communications lines -- is targeted as it was during Operation Desert Storm, it will indicate that the U.S. leadership still gives relatively low importance to the political aspects of modern conflict. However, there are reports that the military is planning a relatively restrained bombing effort.

Also, how well will the neighboring states handled? Will Iran, Turkey, Jordan, or others be destabilized or drawn into the fighting?

Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
How well has the military, particularly the Army, prepared itself for complex semi-combat missions? It is one thing to defeat Saddam Hussein’s military forces, but how well will the occupation go?

Things to Watch: If the Army is able to restore order in occupied areas, and prevent ethnic groups attacking each other to settle old scores, it may indicate that some useful attention has been paid to preparing for stability operations. If U.S. forces handle potential problems with refugees, environmental crises (such as burning oil fields), incursions from neighboring states, chemical/biological attacks and the like effectively, it may indicate that U.S. headquarters are becoming more adept at the multiple elements of modern interventions. And if U.S. forces work well with nongovernmental, international, and civilian agencies, it will indicate that the military is beginning to accept and take advantage of the complementary skills that these other organizations can offer. Regardless of how well the Army does, it seems that the importance of ground forces will be reaffirmed and the hollowness of the currently in-vogue arguments that “air power can do it all” will be exposed.

Urban Warfare
How well have the political and military leadership, and the Army and the Marine Corps prepared for urban warfare? Will the leadership order an assault on Baghdad and other urban areas, or try more patient besieging strategies?

Things to Watch: If siege approaches are chosen, it will indicate that the leadership is able to pursue more complex strategies inherently involving political considerations, rather than solely relying on brute military force. If forces are able to capture cities or portions of cities by assault without suffering or inflicting the normal level of casualties and destruction, it will indicate that the attention given to urban combat training and doctrine, particularly in the Marine Corps over recent years, is paying off.

Weapons of Mass Destruction
How well will the U.S. leadership handle -- both tactically and strategically -- potential Iraqi use of chemical and biological weapons?

Things to Watch: Will the leadership be able to strategically turn potential Iraqi use of weapons of mass destruction into a drawback in the court of world opinion? Will U.S. forces operate effectively under chemical or biological attack, and in particular has sufficient attention been paid to developing relatively simple protective gear for troops in the foxholes while billions have been spent on high-tech, network-centric warfare equipment?

Will the United States itself be tempted to respond in kind with small nuclear weapons -- a move that no doubt would have serious repercussions for rebuilding Iraq as well as the international nonproliferation regime?

Network-centric Warfare
Will network-centric warfare -- using new information technology to link up sensors, "shooters," and commanders -- play a key role in the conflict, or will large numbers of troops on the ground be the crucial factor? Will the network provide too much information to commanders, overwhelming them with data and leading them to micromanage officers on the scene?

Things to Watch: If the U.S. network of sensors happens to spot Saddam Hussein and he is killed, network-centric warfare might get a lot of credit (assuming that the political situation improves or Iraqi military resistance ends then). Alternatively, targeting or bombing mistakes, particularly against sites of biological or chemical weapons that lead to widespread casualties, may give the new technology of warfare a bad name.

It is likely that Iraq will provide a strong test of U.S. military progress in transforming itself for complex military operations of the future. The answers may well be arriving soon.

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

U.S. Sends Combat Troops to Philippines — The United States is sending roughly 3,000 troops to conduct joint military operations with Philippine forces in an effort to eliminate the militant Muslim group Abu Sayyaf. This is the second major deployment of U.S. forces to the Philippines in the past year. Last year a total 1,300 U.S. military personnel were deployed over a period of six months to train Philippine forces in counterterrorism operations. This latest deployment differs in that it has no pre-determined time limit, and U.S. forces will "actively participate" in combat operations, according to Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col Jeff Davis. Plans call for 350 special operations forces along with 400 support personnel to deploy in the southern Sulu Archipelago, while 2,200 Marines aboard amphibious assault ships armed with Cobra attack helicopters and Harrier strike aircraft will move in to the area from Japan.

Opponents of Iraq War Sue White House — Six members of the U.S. House of Representatives, along with members of the military and families of service members have brought suit against the Bush administration in an attempt to prevent the President from invading Iraq without an explicit declaration of war by Congress. The plaintiffs argue that the resolution passed by Congress last October supporting military action against Iraq did not specifically declare war and unlawfully ceded that power to the President. The plaintiffs include U.S. Representatives John Conyers, Jr. (D-Mich.), Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. (D-Ill.), Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Tex.), Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), Jim McDermott (D-Wash.), and Jose Serrano (D-NY).

Passengers of Crashed U.S. Government Plane Missing in Colombia — Four Americans and a Colombian on board a U.S. government plane are missing after the plane crashed Feb. 13 in a part of the country where guerillas are known to be active. The plane, a single-engine Cessna went down roughly 250 miles south of Bogata when radio contact was lost and the aircraft attempted to crash-land. U.S. rescue helicopters from a nearby base were dispatched, but when they located the wreckage there were no bodies to be found, fueling speculation that any survivors may have been kidnapped. It is now believed that units of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are holding them. The Bush administration did not exactly identify the functions of the Americans on board, but indicated that they were neither part of the Drug Enforcement Administration nor regular U.S. embassy employees.

Pentagon Probes Rape Allegations at Air Force Academy — The Defense Department has begun an investigation into numerous allegations of sexual assault at the U.S. Air Force Academy made by current and past female cadets. Many of the alleged victims have claimed that reporting assaults to academy officials has led retaliation in the form of reprimands and threats of expulsion. Other cadets have been afraid to report cases of sexual attacks by fellow cadets. According to the Academy, 99 cases of sexual assault have been reported to the academy’s hotline since 1996. Yet according to General John Dallager, the superintendent of the academy, no cadets have been successfully court-martialed for sexually assaulting another cadet.

Israel to Join JSF Program — U.S. and Israeli government officials on Feb. 13 signed a letter of intent that will permit Israel to eventually become a limited partner in development of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program. Israel will be the eighth foreign country to join the JSF program. Levels of involvement are based primarily on the amount of investment to which a country commits to the program’s early development. The United Kingdom is a first-tier country, having pledged $2 billion. Italy and the Netherlands are considered second-tier, having pledged $1 billion and $800 million respectively. Canada, Denmark, Norway and Turkey are third-tier countries, having pledged between $200 million and $400 million. Israel has committed $150 million to the program. If Israel eventually decides to purchase the JSF, deliveries could begin as soon as 2012. A nation’s status weights what input it will have in to development of the aircraft’s final design and capabilities, as well as possible future co-production agreements.

Quotation of the Week — "During the horrible confrontation with the Soviet Union we called the Cold War, I frequently stood nuclear alert watch on aircraft carriers. For a period of time my assigned target was an industrial complex and transportation hub in a major city in eastern Europe. Although destruction of that target would have done little to defeat the Soviet Union, it was only one of dozens of comparable targets to be attacked by aircraft from the two carriers in the U.S. Sixth Fleet. My bomb alone would have resulted in the death of an estimated 600,000 human beings. Multiply that 40 or 50 times and you can understand what the two carriers alone would have done, and that was only a fraction of the planned destruction to be wreaked by hundreds of aircraft and missiles from NATO bases in Europe. Later I served as Director of Military Operations for all U.S. forces in Europe. There I was responsible for the security, readiness, and control of 7,000 U.S. nuclear weapons available for use by NATO forces. Despite the obvious fact that those weapons would never defend Europe, only destroy everything there, the U.S. was then urging NATO to add neutron bombs, Pershing II missiles and Ground Launched Cruise Missiles to the European arsenal. It is from these up close and personal experiences that I came to understand that nuclear weapons are truly unusable, worthless for any rational military purpose. If a war is ever warranted, it is to achieve some identifiable objective and to prevent, or end, evils greater than war itself. But fought with nuclear weapons the war destroys whatever the objective might have been and there is no evil greater than the barbaric, indiscriminate destruction which the weapons would inflict on the earth and all who inhabit it," Rear Admiral Eugene J. Carroll, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.), "The Case for Nuclear Abolition," Turtle River Press, January/February 1999 edition.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"War for Water"

SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV examines the timely issues that affect the United States together with foreign experts from around the world.

This week, Superpower: Global Affairs Television takes a look at the foreign perspective on international water issues. Water is the World's most precious resource, and the one that Americans take most for granted. In other key areas of the world, including the Middle East, Africa, and South America, water has become a key issue of contention. As poor water planning and usage continues, dams are built, and supplies dwindle what will be the consequences?

Joining Superpower to discuss the issue will be guest moderator, Dr. Pia Salmre, Mark Thompson, national security correspondent for Time magazine; Urvashi Narain, Research Analyst at Resources for the Future, and Shlomi Dinar, from the School of Advanced International Studies.

If you would like to submit a question or comment to be read on this week's show, please send an e-mail to feedback@superpowertv.org.

WHERE TO SEE SUPERPOWER:

SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV is aired in the Washington, DC area on Wednesday at 8:30pm on MHz, and again on Saturday at 8:30am on MHz (Channel 56 -- check local listings at: http://www.mhznetworks.org/cable/listings.html).

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