TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

Export-Control Murkiness: U.S. Secrecy Spurs Talk of Looser Standards

Matt Schroeder, Research Associate, Arms Sales Monitoring Project, Federation of American Scientists, and Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, Center for Defense Information rstohl@cdi.org

During a speech delivered at the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency’s annual conference in October, Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state, announced plans by President George W. Bush’s administration to conduct a comprehensive review of U.S. policy on defense trade controls.

The six-month review, which Bush authorized in a National Security Policy Directive, will be completed by an interagency panel comprising representatives from the departments of Commerce, State and Defense, under the auspices of the National Security Council. Topics include defense trade licensing, technology transfer policies, and maintaining the defense industrial base.

Despite potential implications for national security, publicly available information on the process and parameters of the policy review are in short supply. The review has attracted little attention from the media, even the trade journals, and few government officials in the know are talking.

Efforts to obtain information on the review process through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) also have been of little use. The directive originated in the National Security Council, which is not obligated to honor FOIA requests, and therefore chances of receiving a copy are virtually nil.

This opacity has fueled speculation that the review process is a vehicle for implementing many of the so-called reforms advanced by advocates of defense trade liberalization. For several years, the Defense Department and industry have worked together to push reforms of the export control system that actually loosen restrictions on weapon sales.

Among the most brazen examples is the ongoing campaign waged by industry and Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., to remove the CH-47 Chinook military transport helicopter from the U.S. Munitions List. As Defense News Staff Writer Jason Sherman points out, Weldon’s interest is clearly political; a dearth of orders for the CH-47 is forcing the Boeing plant in his district to eliminate at least 1,000 jobs by 2004 ("U.S. May Ease Utility Copter Export Rules," Defense News, April 8-14).

Removing the CH-47 from the U.S. Munitions List would allow Boeing to sell to China, which has expressed an interest in purchasing the helicopter but is currently prohibited from receiving U.S. defense articles because of an arms embargo that has been in effect since the Tiananmen Square massacre.

Advocates of the sale are quick to point out that Chinooks sold to China would be demilitarized. Promises to sell a demilitarized version are likely to provide little consolation to the Taiwanese, however. According to Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group, a defense consulting firm, China still could find many military uses for a "demilitarized" Chinook, including ferrying troops and equipment across the Taiwan Strait.

Proposed changes like the one above illustrate just how far industry and its government allies will go to make a sale. Until now, however, they have relied on laws and procedures to achieve their goals rather than administrative edict. The current review seems to bypass the oversight power of Congress and the purview of the public.

According to a White House fact sheet on the review, among its purposes is to "maintain America's technological and war fighting advantages over its potential adversaries, while facilitating friends’ and allies’ efforts to increase capability and interoperability."

The explanation of this verbiage can largely be summarized as putting more money in the pockets of the U.S. defense industry as quickly as possible. The list of areas targeted for such reform appears to be based on economic, rather than security, justifications.

Proposed modifications to the Militarily Critical Technologies List, the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations would, in effect, allow the United States to sell more military goods and services without needing to go through licensing procedures.

In short, the directive appears to be yet another attempt by the Defense Department and industry to sell as many U.S. weapons as quickly as possible. The May 2000 Defense Trade Security Initiative, "intended to expedite the export licensing process to improve industrial competitiveness," did not go far enough or fast enough for industry or the Defense Department.

Now, with little transparency, the Bush administration is poised to complete, in the words of one congressional staffer, the most sweeping change to U.S. arms export policy in more than 50 years. Certainly that kind of reform deserves at least modest public debate.

This article first appeared in Defense News, January 6, 2003, and is reprinted with permission.

CDI Hosts Moscow Conference on Confidence Building Measures

Dr. Wayne Glass, Senior Advisor, wglass@usc.edu

The Center for Defense Information joined with the Institute of Strategic Stability (ISS) of the Russian Federation's Ministry of Atomic Energy (MINATOM) to host a two-day conference in Moscow during December 5-6, 2002. Bruce Blair, President of CDI and Academician Viktor Mikhailov, former Minister of MINATOM and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, co-hosted the event that took place at the Ararat Park Hotel near the Kremlin in Moscow. Academician Mikhailov heads the Institute of Strategic Stability and also serves as the head of research at the Scientific Research Institute of Experimental Physics (RFYaTs-VNIIEF).

The conference on "Confidence Building Measures in the Nuclear Sphere and Problems of Strategic Stability" featured a presentation by visiting Congressman Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) who spoke to the participants about the critical importance of US and Russian cooperation in the fight against terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Congressman Weldon is a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee who served as Chairman of the Military Research and Development Subcommittee during the recently completed 107th Congress. Mr. Weldon pledged to continue to monitor and support key cooperative programs, including DoD's Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) programs, the nonproliferation programs managed by the Department of Energy, and the Russian-American Observation Satellite (RAMOS) program, a joint cooperative technology demonstration program to improve missile defense against Scud missiles. CDI has been a strong supporter of those programs in the past and welcomed Mr. Weldon's encouraging remarks.

Conference participants focused on three general problem areas in their presentations and discussions: recent evolutions in Russian-American relations and related prospects for arms control regimes and nuclear non-proliferation; reducing the nuclear threat between the two nations; and potential means of cooperation in the international war against terrorism. US delegates from the Department of State, the Department of Energy, Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories made presentations and offered innovative ideas. The US delegation also included senior representatives of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), the Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council (RANSAC), the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University, and RAND. The CDI delegation, headed by Bruce Blair, also included Phil Coyle, former Director of Operational Testing in the Pentagon, Dr. Ivan Safranchuk, CDI’s representative in Moscow, and Dr. Wayne Glass, former senior Senate defense advisor.

Topics of US presentations covered a wide range of timely subjects of mutual concern to both delegations. Bruce Blair addressed the conference on future directions for arms control negotiations and was joined by Elliott Schwartz of RAND to discuss specific issues regarding dealerting of strategic nuclear forces. Dr. Rose Gottemoeller of Carnegie spoke about potential cooperative measures beyond the Moscow Treaty and later offered remarks with Jane Purcell of the State Department and Jim Doyle of Los Alamos National Laboratory in discussing particulars of the Treaty. Dr. Frank Von Hippel of Princeton, Bob Berls of NTI, and Bill Hoehn of RANSAC made presentations on various cooperative non-proliferation programs including DOE nuclear security programs, nuclear materials stockpile reduction, and Highly Enriched Uranium. Dr. Von Hippel also presented ideas about cooperative measures for reducing the submarine strategic threat. Phil Coyle of CDI presented remarks regarding the US strategic missile defense program and was later joined in discussion by Dr. Wayne Glass who commented on RAMOS and issues relating to joint research and development for missile defense. Michael Levi of FAS gave a presentation on US plans for the “bunker buster” nuclear weapon and its nuclear testing implications. Ed Fei of the Department of Energy discussed potential cooperative measures regarding proliferation in South Asia. Dr. Dori Ellis of Sandia offered some well-received thoughts on cooperative opportunities in counterterrorism.

The Russian delegation included 51 members representing key organizations and governmental agencies with oversight responsibilities for US-Russia cooperative programs. In addition to the Institute of Strategic Stability and the Ministry of Atomic Energy, Russian delegates represented the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and key research institutes for Experimental Physics, Technical Physics, Automation, Pulse Technology, and Measuring Systems. High level Russian participants included General of the Armed Forces (ret.) Mahmud Gareev, President of the Academy of Military Sciences, and the Academy’s First Vice President, Colonel General (ret.) Varfolomei Korobushev. Mr. Vitaly Lukyantsev, Senior Counselor of the Department of Security and Disarmament Affairs, represented the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Russian Ministry of Defense delegation also included a number of high level participants, including Mssrs. Vladimir Lysenko, Aleksandr Milanov, Grigorii Shevchenko, Vitaly Shishkov, and Sergei Shustov.

Academician Mikhailov and Bruce Blair signed a conference protocol this month that summarizes the results of the conference and outlines future directions for cooperation between CDI and ISS. Both parties have agreed to convene future conferences on confidence building and strategic cooperation in order to develop joint recommendations to the US and Russian governments on future cooperative steps. CDI will publish the proceedings of the Moscow conference in coming months.

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

U.S. Surveillance Aircraft to Aid in Iraq Inspections —The United States has offered the UN the use of military surveillance aircraft to aid in Iraqi weapons inspections, according to Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The offer includes the use of U-2 aircraft and unmanned Predators. Thus far the UN has only indicated an interest in using U-2s, and no flights have yet been flown. The Iraqi government has expressed its opposition to the plan to chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix, saying that it would complicate the efforts of their air defense forces in defending against U.S. and British aircraft enforcing the northern and southern "no-fly" zones. Iraq does not recognize the legality of the "no-fly" zones and says it considers the U.S. and British fighter patrols to be violations of Iraqi sovereignty.

Army Troops in Hungary To Train Iraqi Opposition — Several hundred U.S. Army soldiers arrived late last week at Taszar Air Base in Hungary to prepare for training Iraqi opposition members for possible service with U.S. military units as translators or guides in the event of a war against Iraq, according Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The training sessions would last for 30 days and would be designed to enable the Iraqis to function within U.S. units, and will include combat training. Gen. Myers told reporters that did not know how many Iraqis would be trained.

U.S. Troops, First-responders Get Smallpox Vaccination —500,000 military personnel, many of them destined for the Persian Gulf, are being inoculated against the smallpox virus on orders from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Later in the month states will begin procedures to vaccinate the same number of emergency workers -- so-called "first responders" such as police officers, firefighters, and health care workers. Already several states have gained approval from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) for these voluntary vaccination plans, including Minnesota and Connecticut. The debate about a larger, nation-wide inoculation program for the general public is likely to continue until more vaccines are available, which under current plans is not expected until 2004. Click here to see CDI’s primer on smallpox.

Osprey Completes Shipboard Testing —The Navy’s V-22 "Osprey" tilt-roter aircraft completed its first shipboard testing since it resumed test flights in May, making six takeoffs and landings from the USS Iwo Jima in the Atlantic Ocean. The ability to operate safely from ships is critical for the controversial aircraft, which can take off and land vertically like a helicopter but flies like an airplane. The Pentagon is expected to decide later this year whether to continue with the Osprey, which was grounded for more than a year after two crashes killed 23 Marines in 2000.

Navy Begins Last Vieques Exercise —The Navy began what is says will be its last training exercise on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques on Jan. 13. The exercise is being conducted by the Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group consisting of nine ships, two submarines and aircraft, and is scheduled to last a month. As an alternative to Vieques the Navy plans to expand training at several mainland bases. The Bush administration has ordered training on the island be halted by May 1.

Quotation of the Week — "We can see a lot of work ahead of us beyond [January 27] if we are allowed to do so...It could be that one day [the U.S. government] will say, 'Move aside boys, we are coming in.' That's possible, but I think a great many people and a great many governments would prefer to have [Iraqi] disarmament through peaceful means," chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix, interview with the BBC, January 13, 2003.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"Democratic Dilemma in Venezuela"

SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV examines the timely issues that affect the United States together with foreign experts from around the world.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is now facing the seventh week of protests calling for his resignation. As a democratically elected leader, what what are countries in the region doing about the situation? What is the unique perspective from other parts of the world that you have yet to hear?

Joining Superpower moderator Lisa Simeone to discuss the issue will be Mark Thompson, national security correspondent for Time magazine; Paulo Sotero, Washington Bureau Chief of O Estado De Sao Paulo; and Duke Banks, Member of the Board of Directors for Coordinadora Internacional Venezolana.

If you would like to submit a question or comment to be read on this week's show, please send an e-mail to feedback@superpowertv.org.

WHERE TO SEE SUPERPOWER:

SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV is aired in the Washington, DC area on Wednesday at 8:30pm on MHz, and again on Sunday at 12:30pm on MHz2 (check local listings at: http://www.mhznetworks.org/cable/listings.html).

Superpower is broadcast nationwide:

WorldLinkTV, Channel 9410 on Echostar Communications Corporation's DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system. Superpower and WorldLinkTV are available on Channel 375 on DIRECTV® satellite TV service.

Broadcast times for Superpower: Global Affairs TV on WorldLinkTV
Saturdays: 6:30 p.m. EDT
Sundays: 2:30 a.m., 8:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT

To see when Superpower broadcasts on WorldlinkTV and your DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system or your DIRECTV® satellite TV service, please visit: http://www.worldlinktv.com/cgi-bin/displayProgram.cgi?code=superpower

For more information, please send an e-mail to: info@superpowertv.org. For free transcripts of past shows, go to www.superpowertv.org