TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

More Turbulence in the F-22 Program

Christopher Hellman, Senior Analyst, chellman@cdi.org

The Pentagon has ordered the Air Force to cut its planned purchase of F-22 "Raptor" fighters from 325 to 276, a reduction of fifteen percent. The order, signed by the Defense Department’s Comptroller Dov Zakheim, is in response to the Air Force’s recent revelation that the F-22, already plagued by numerous delays and cost overruns, may be a further $690 million over budget. The cost of the F-22 program is currently set at $69 billion, which makes the per unit cost of the aircraft, if only 276 are purchased, a whopping $250 million.

On Nov. 7 the Air Force announced that the F-22 program was as much as $690 million over budget for the engineering, manufacturing and development phase of the program. According to Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper, the cost growth was not the result of technological or performance problems, but was due to the fact that the aircraft’s components were costing more than expected. The Air Force appointed a team to examine the situation, determine its severity, and make recommendations about how to avoid similar problems in the future. The Pentagon’s top acquisition person, Edward Aldridge, later admitted that the cost overruns came as a surprise to DoD and Air Force officials.

In the wake of these revelations, a number of high-ranking program officials were sacked. The Air Force announced on Nov. 18 that Brig. Gen. William Jabour, the program executive officer, and Brig. Gen. Mark Shackelford, the system program director, were removed from their jobs. The following day the program’s prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, announced that their F/A-22 program manager Bob Readen had also been replaced. Then, at the end of November, the Pentagon announced the cost overruns would likely exceed $700 million, and could reach $1 billion.

The Air Force’s procurement chief Marvin Sambur expressed his growing doubts about the F-22, indicated that additional problems would force the service to "go back and reevaluate" the aircraft. "This program is on the bubble," said Sambur. He also indicated that rather than attempting to add more money to the program, the predicted overruns in development costs would be offset by cuts in production funding, forcing either greater efficiencies in the program or cutting the number of aircraft produced. Thus, in many ways, this week’s announcement about reductions in the planned buy of F-22s was inevitable.

Yet overall the Air Force remains committed to the program. In September, the service announced that it was redesignating the Raptor as the F/A-22, to highlight the fact that the plane, originally designed as an air superiority fighter tasked with destroying enemy air forces in the air, would be reconfigured to give it a ground attack capability. In announcing the plan, the Air Force indicated that it would seek production of at least 381 of the aircraft, and perhaps as many as 762.

At the same time, the trade publication Inside the Air Force (Sept. 13) quoting unnamed sources in the service and the F-22 program, reported that proponents of the aircraft were attempting to bolster its support on Capitol Hill by promising to deliver some of the earliest aircraft produced to the Air National Guard. Traditionally when new weapons enter service they are first delivered to active duty units, with the guard and reserve receiving them at a later date. According to the story, the unusual plan was being considered in order to persuade the Guard to use its considerable political influence on Capitol Hill to protect the F-22. The sources quoted indicated that the cancellation of the Army’s Crusader artillery program earlier in the year had made all the services nervous about the future of their highest priority programs.

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

Missile Defense Costs Could Exceed $1 Trillion — It could cost $800 billion to $1.2 trillion to develop, deploy, operate and maintain the multi-tiered missile defense system envisioned by the Bush administration, according to a new report released by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, and Economists Allied for Arms Reduction. Much of these costs are "life-cycle costs" associated with the actual operation and maintenance of the system, a cost that previous government estimates have not calculated. According to the report, annual spending on missile defense could reach $50 billion to $75 billion, absorbing funding for other Pentagon priorities such as transformation. For the full report, see "The Full Costs of Ballistic Missile Defense."

Brazil Needs Nuclear Weapons Capability Says Government Official —Brazil’s new minister of science and technology Roberto Amaral has told the Brazilian service of the BBC that his country cannot afford to renounce any type of scientific knowledge, including nuclear fission. Other officials have sought to distance the government from the statement, which has set of a furor at home and abroad. A government spokesperson said that Amaral’s remarks were not a statement of official policy. Yet critics note that the remarks seem to echo those of new President Luiz Inaciao Lula da Silva when he was a candidate. Speaking to retired Brazilian military officers in September, da Silva was critical of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as unjust and favoring the United States and other nations with nuclear weapons.

Marines Considering Space Transport Plane —The U.S. Marine Corps is considering developing a small unit transport aircraft that would be capable of reaching orbit and loitering there. The Marines believe that their flexibility to rapidly deploy anywhere in the globe is limited by current insertion technologies, and are eyeing space transport as one answer. Funding to begin exploring the technological possibilities could start as early as next year, although actual deployment would not be expected until 2030.

CBO: U.S. Military Spending to Rise Over Next Twenty Years —U.S. military spending will continue to rise over the next two decades and reach nearly $500 billion annually in order to support current plans, according to a new study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the report, the projected annual average of $387 billion in Pentagon spending through 2007 would have to increase to as much as $490 billion by 2017; an increase of nearly twenty-seven percent. Funding for development and production of new weapons, for example, if expected program cost growth is included, would have to rise from the current $128 billion to $178 billion by 2008, an increase of thirty-eight percent. For Additional Information, see "The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans," The Congressional Budget Office, January 2003.

Quotation of the Week — "The [Bush] Administration’s current policies stress the importance of transforming the naition’s military force but they make few substantial changes to those forces or to the fefesne programs that will sustain them in the long term," "The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans," report by the Congressional Budget Office, January 2003.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"Nuclear Crisis in North Korea"

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North Korea and the United States are at an impasse over a nuclear weapons agreement and several countries in the region are attempting to help diffuse a problem before it starts. Meanwhile, North Korea struggles internally as millions face starvation. What are countries in the region doing about these problems? What is the unique perspective from other parts of the world that you have yet to hear?

Joining Superpower moderator Lisa Simeone to discuss the issue will be Mark Thompson, national security correspondent for Time magazine; Nikolai Zlobin, Editor-in-Chief of Washington ProFile, a Russian-language news agency, based in Washington, DC; and Insun Kang, Washington Correspondent for the South Korean newspaper, Chosun Il Bo.

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