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Volume 6, Issue #41 • December 5, 2002

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

CDI Terrorism Report: Al Qaeda Attempts to Widen War
Evidence points to al Qaeda having carried out the Nov. 26 attacks in Mombasa that left 10 Kenyans and 3 Israelis dead. If Osama bin Laden's organization is indeed behind the incident, it is the first known instance of them openly targeting Israelis -- a move that could mark a widening of the war being waged by the terrorist network. The methods used at Mombasa also further highlight the danger of suicide attacks and the vulnerability of civilian aircraft to man-portable air defense systems -- as ubiquitous as they are easy to use.
 
      Iraqi Scuds: A Threat We Have to Respect
The United States will face a number of risks as part of any invasion of Iraq that are quite serious, and could be even more serious in some cases than those that existed 12 years ago. The best, most capable, intelligence agencies in the world are all very wary of the potential threat posed by Iraqi Scud missiles. Several of the latest CIA reports and recent defector statements indicate that Iraq has biological/chemical weapons on hand. Blister agents, mustard gas, VX gas, anthrax, and the nerve agents Sarin and Taburn are all possible payloads for Scud missiles.
 
In the Spotlight: Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya -- Islamic Group
Members of Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya, Egypt's largest militant group, have played roles in the assassination of President Anwar Sadat, the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, and multiple attacks on tourists visiting Egypt. One of the organization's senior leaders signed Osama bin Laden's 1998 fatwa declaring jihad on U.S. citizens. Although recent crackdowns have splintered the group, cells are still operating in Egypt and throughout the Middle East and Europe.
 
CDI's "Briefing Room"
U.S. to Create Security Zones In Afghanistan ~ GAO: DoD Lacks Adequate Air Defense Suppression Capability ~ CBO: Deficit Could Total $3 Trillion ~ F/A-22 Meets Final 2002 Flight Testing Goal ~ Quotation of the Week
 
This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"AIDS Epidemic"

 

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

U.S. to Create Security Zones In Afghanistan —The Pentagon is planning to create a series of security enclaves in a dozen or more Afghan cities in order to permit American military personnel and aid officials to operate safely, according to U.S. State Department officials. Thus far the United States has resisted expanding efforts to provide security beyond the area around Kabul, despite repeated requests for the Afghani government, which is also seeking a larger U.S. role in reconstruction efforts across the country.

GAO: DoD Lacks Adequate Air Defense Suppression Capability —Despite warnings contained in its January 2001 report, the General Accounting Office (GAO) found in a report issued last week that the Defense Department lacks sufficient capabilities to fulfill its Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) requirements. The report found that while some progress had been made during the last year and a half, there were not enough aircraft capable of performing SEAD missions to meet requirements, those that are in the current inventory are experiencing airframe and engine problems mostly due to aging, and overall improvements are needed to meet the threat of increasingly sophisticated surface-to-air systems. Click here to see the full text of "Electronic Warfare: Comprehensive Strategy Still Needed for Suppressing Enemy Air Defenses," GAO-03-51, November 26, 2002.

CBO: Deficit Could Total $3 Trillion — In response to a request from a U.S. Senator, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has done a study that shows that under current law the deficit may total nearly $3 trillion over the next decade. A CBO report released in August found that current deficits would continue through 2006, but would achieve a $1 trillion total surplus by 2012. The report assumed, however, that the recently-enacted tax cuts would be allowed to expire in 2010, as is currently scheduled. According to Senator George Voinovich (R-Ohio), who requested the new study, "those assumptions don’t reflect the way Congress operates." Voinovich asked CBO to revise its estimates assuming that the tax cuts would be made permanent and that federal spending would continue to grow at current rates -- an average of 8.5 percent annually. Under those conditions CBO found that rather than a $1 trillion cumulative surplus by 2012, the U.S. would accrue a cumulative debt of $2.9 trillion.

F/A-22 Meets Final 2002 Flight Testing Goal —The Air Force’s F/A-22 "Raptor" met its final flight testing goal for the year last month when it successfully launched an AIM-9M "Sidewinder" air-to-air missile against a drone aircraft on Nov. 22. The heat-seeking missile tracked the target successfully, and passed by close enough that it would have detonated had it been equipped with a live warhead. The F/A-22 carries its weapons in internal bays, and the aircraft’s weapons control system automatically opens the bay doors and extends the missile out once the aircraft is in range of its target. The system also automatically retracts the missile once the target is out of range.

Quotation of the Week — "This debate [about the potential cost of war against Iraq] is futile because the case for war depends on its strategic consequences, not on its price tag. You wouldn’t argue, for example, that the Vietnam War was a success because it cost less (as a share of GDP) than the Korean War, or that World War II was a failure because it cost much more than both...Yet there are two ways in which the talk of war costs may be constructive. First, it underlines the case for finding allies: In the Persian Gulf War, the United States successfully recouped all but $7 billion of the costs from other nations. Second, it may help focus attention on this nation’s neglected long-term finances. For although the strategic consequences of an Iraq war far outweigh the cost issues, these costs will have to be met somehow," Washington Post editorial, December 4, 2002.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"AIDS Epidemic"

SUPERPOWER examines the timely issues that affect the United States together with foreign experts from around the world.

According to the latest UN estimates, the AIDS epidemic shows few signs of slowing down. Besides taking lives, left unchecked the disease can ruin a country's economic and political stability. For years health officials have been warning of such a crisis in Africa, which is home to more than half of the world's 42 million AIDS sufferers. Now statistical evidence suggests a new pandemic is about to explode across Eurasia in India, Russia, Eastern Europe, and China. What are the United States and other Western powers doing to stop the disease outside their borders? Will it be enough?

Joining Superpower moderator Lisa Simeone to discuss the issue this week will be Mark Thompson, National Security Correspondent for Time magazine; Dr. Vinand Nantulya, from Uganda, currently a Senior Researcher at the Harvard School of Public Health; and Dr. Frank Wong, Associate Research Professor at George Washington University Medical School.

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