TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

New Report Reveals Repercussions of Resource Exploitation

Victoria Garcia, Research Assistant, vgarcia@cdi.org

While there has been an increased effort to make it more difficult for resources gained through conflict to be sold on world market, the world's appetite for cellular phones, diamonds, furniture made of tropical woods and other lavish commodities is fueling conflict in many developing countries, according to a new report released by the Worldwatch Institute.

"The Anatomy of Resource Wars," authored by Michael Renner and released Oct. 16, examines how a wide range of exploited resources namely petroleum, timber, diamonds and other minerals such as Coltan (used in electronic equipment such as cellular phones) negatively impact countries in conflict around the world. Rather than helping the economy, the income generated by these resources engenders corruption and deadly conflicts in many developing nations including Sierra Leon, Angola, Sudan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Colombia and Afghanistan. According to the report, more than 5 million people were killed during the 1990s due to resource conflicts, and as many as 20 million were displaced from their homes. Additionally, the methods used to extract many of these resources have devastating environmental repercussions, many of which are irreversible.

In an attempt to explain why these conflicts ignite in certain countries rather than others that have ample natural resources, Renner discusses the various political, social, economic and military factors that create vulnerability and the environment for war. For instance, instead of stabilizing the economy, resource profits are ravaging the economic infrastructure of many societies because the industries that extract the resources tend to "create only small pockets of wealth and have few linkages to the rest of the national economy," particularly if the raw resource itself is being sold, which requires no processing in the country of origin and thus provides no capital for the manufacturing and distribution sectors. Moreover, such a high dependence on natural resources takes way from other crucial sectors of the society, such as health and education, making it more prone to a humanitarian crisis. The companies that buy these commodities largely contribute to resource conflicts by purchasing and facilitating the export of "hot commodities" and by operating many times directly with warlords, rebel forces or corrupt economic elites within repressive governments. In sum, the money generated by legal and illegal transfers of these resources has enabled both rebel groups and government forces to stay well armed, lined the pockets of the elite minority and international companies while the rest of the population remains impoverished.

Indeed, the profits generated from conflict resources are massive. Renner reports that in less than a decade, UNITA (Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola) derived an estimated $4 billion from diamond sales. During the 1990s, the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) of Sierra Leone received anywhere from $25 million to $125 million a year from diamond sales, the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan made an average of $60 million a year from lapis lazuli, emeralds and opium sales, while the Taliban earned about $30 million to $40 million a year from opium and heroin sales. The Rwandan government profited from the increasing demand for cellular phones making $250 million in Coltan sales from 1999-2000. Both the licit and illicit exploitation of these resources have not only triggered and financed interstate and intrastate conflicts, but also contributed to arms trafficking, humanitarian and environmental disasters, and severe human rights violations.

The report concludes with recommendations for breaking the link between resources and conflicts, such as monitoring compliance with sanctions, finding ways to better enforce embargoes, investigate violations, and improve peacekeeping operations. Another recommendation involves finding ways to better monitor small arms transfers, specifically illicit ones. Small arms are the weapons of choice for both government and rebel forces involved in resource wars because they are inexpensive, easy to hide, widely accessible and can be traded directly for commodities or for the profits generated by commodity sales. Renner suggests that the only way to control the plague of small arms is by increasing international cooperation and sustained efforts to improve the transparency mechanisms that identify the end-users of these weapons. Renner also emphasizes the importance of disarmament programs and destruction of surplus and illegal arms.

On the domestic level, Renner recommends that the economies of developing countries become more diversified which would break away from such an extreme reliance on primary natural resources. Developing communities also need the cooperation of multilateral development agencies in receiving adequate health care, education services and employment opportunities, which in turn reduce the risk of resource wars constantly erupting in these exploited societies. While all of these recommendations require long-term commitments from the international community, it is an overdue effort on the part of rich developed nations that have for so long enjoyed these commodities without paying attention the human toll of their availability.
 

Gen. Anthony Zinni on War with Iraq

Retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni headed the U.S. Central Command from 1997 to 2000 and is now a CDI Distinguished Military Fellow. On Oct. 10, 2002 he spoke about the prospect of war with Iraq before the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. Extracts of the speech follow. The full text is at http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/zinni-iraq-conditions.cfm.

"What would have to happen to make any military action turn out in the best possible way? I wrote 10 conditions for this war that would have to happen."

1. The coalition is "in."

"We definitely have to approach this with global partners and international legitimacy, or whatever we do on the ground is going to be tainted from the beginning."

2. The war is short.

"If this war drags on, if the combat drags on, it's going to become messy. There will be more opportunity for more bad things to happen inside the country where the combat is taking place and outside in many different areas, in relationships and in politics."

3. Destruction is light.

"Civilian casualties, collateral damage, destruction of the infrastructure, and the images that could be created regardless of who causes this will not sit well in the region, will cause problems in the long run and will add to the difficulty in the aftermath."

4. Israel is "out."

"Every attempt will be made to drag Israel into this war, not just by Saddam but by all those who may see this as an opportunity - the extremist groups and those that support extremist groups. The image they will want is a forced Israeli reaction, whether it's inside Iraq, in the West Bank, or in Gaza. Those images on Al Jazeera, Abu Dhabi TV and elsewhere would be explosive."

5. The "street" is quiet.

"Anti-Americanism, doubt about this war, concern about the damage that may happen, political issues, economic issues, social issues have all caused the [Arab] "street" to become extremely volatile. . . . I've been out in the Middle East, and it is explosive; it is the worst I've ever seen it in over a dozen years of working in this area."

6. Order is kept.

"If we think there is a fast solution to changing the governance of Iraq, then we don't understand history, the nature of the country, the divisions, or the underneath, suppressed, passions that could rise up. God help us if we think this transition will occur easily."

7. The burden is shared.

"The burden has to be shared not only in cost and resources but also on the ground, in who inherits this problem and who brings order. . . .The burden is going to have to be shared in terms of responsibility of patching up whatever damage is left, not only physical but also political or societal."

8. The change is orderly.

"The attempts I've seen to install democracy in short periods of time where there is no history and no roots have failed. . . . Every place else where this has happened, it's been bloody, difficult, and long-term with a lot of friction. We can ill afford that in this part of the region."

9. The military is not stuck.

"We have to help countries not fail, not become endangered, not become potential sanctuaries for extremism, and not end up in a chaotic state. . . . If our military, resources, government agencies, those that are working and cooperating with us . . . around the world are sucked into this one issue and drawn away from those others, we will end up with bigger problems."

10. Other commitments are met.

"Terrorism is a manifestation of something greater. . . . Why are young people flocking to these causes? Could the issues be political, economic and social? Could disenfranchisement or oppression be what drives them rather than the religious fanaticism that may be the core element to only a few? How do we cooperate to fix these problems?"

. . .

"If I were to give you my priority of things that can change for the better in this region, it is first and foremost the Middle East peace process and getting it back on track.

Second, it is ensuring that Iran's reformation or moderation continues on track and trying to help and support the people who are trying to make that change in the best way we can. That's going to take a lot of intelligence and careful work.

The third is to make sure those countries to which we have now committed ourselves to change, like Afghanistan and those in central Asia, we invest what we need to in the way of resources there to make that change happen.

Fourth is to patch up these relationships that have become strained, and fifth is to reconnect to the people. We are talking past each other. The dialogue is heated. We have based this in things that are tough to compromise on, like religion and politics, and we need to reconnect in a different way.

I would take those priorities before this one [war with Iraq]. My personal view, and this is just personal, is that I think this isn't number one. It's maybe six or seven, and the affordability line may be drawn around five."
 

Missile Defense Flight Tests

The following charts detail the successes and failures of all missile defense integrated flight tests held by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). CDI looks at each test, examining its specific characteristics and determining whether it signifies serious progress forward. (Information also accessible through
www.cdi.org/missile-defense/systems.cfm)

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

U.S. Halts Aid in Northern Afghanistan — The United States has halted reconstruction assistance programs in Northern Afghanistan due to continued fighting between rival tribal factions. U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Robert Finn said he halted the work because he can no longer guarantee the safety of American aid workers there. The area around the city of Mazar-e-Sharif has been the site of frequent clashes between the tribal forces of the rival warlords Abdul Rashid Dostan and Atta Mohammed.

U.S. Will Compensate Jordan For Iraq War — The U.S. government has promised to provide Jordan with economic assistance for losses resulting from a war on Iraq, according to a story in Reuters (Oct. 28). Jordanian government sources are reported as saying that U.S. officials have promised to pay $450 million annually to compensate the Kingdom for economic losses. Jordan estimates that the war could cost the country $1 billion annually if access to Iraq's supply of cheap oil is interrupted. An unmanned Jordanian official quoted in the story said that U.S. officials have told the government, "Your friends in Washington will not idly stand by and watch economic adversity hit our traditional ally."

Somali Warlords Agree to Cease Fire — The leaders of twenty-two rival Somali factions signed a cease-fire and agreed to draft a federal constitution for the country, reports The Nation of Nairobi (Oct. 29). The leaders pledged to resolve future differences peacefully and form an inclusive federal government, and agreed to allow international monitoring of the arms embargo that was imposed after the Somali civil war begin in 1991.

Serbian Defense Officials Resign over Iraqi Arms Sales — Defense Minister Slobodan Bilic and Army Chief of Staff Novica Simic resigned from their posts in the the Bosnian Serb Republic after their government revealed that the state-owned aviation company Orao sold military equipment to Iraq in violation of a U.N. embargo. Orao aviation sold the equipment, which included spare parts for Iraq's MiG fighter aircraft, through the Yugoslav state-owned Jugoimport company. The Bosnian Serb Supreme Defense Council said the two men were not directly involved in the sales and resigned to help restore the international standing of the country in the wake of the scandal.

Quotation of the Week — "In the coming months, the most delicate problem in international relations will be how to negotiate an end to [the North Korean] crisis. If all sides play their cards wisely, we could not only defuse the confrontation, but also launch North Korea on a path like the one China pursued away from Stalinism. North Korea is the most totalitarian country in the world, and possibly the most dangerous adversary we face. But that's precisely the reason we need to engage it," columnist Nicholas D. Kristof, The New York Times, Oct. 29, 2002.
 

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV —
"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons"

SUPERPOWER examines the timely issues that affect the United States together with foreign experts from around the world.

The motiviations behind North Korea's admission that it had developed nuclear weapons are still in doubt in much of the world this week. Some in the United States conclude it's blackmail: North Korea will only try to use disarmament to leverage an economic bailout; and they are leery of the North's newfound openness. But North Korea's neighbors Japan and South Korea don't see it that way. They prefer continued dialogue and negotiations. What is at the root of this fundamental disagreement between the allies? And on which side does China fall?

Joining Superpower moderator Lisa Simeone to discuss the issue this week will be Mark Thompson of Time magazine; Yoshihisa Komori, Editor-at-Large for Sankei Shimbun; Ming Zhang, Director of Research at IHS International.

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