TABLE OF CONTENTS

• The U.S. Military Campaign in Afghanistan: The Year in Review

  U.S. military operations in Afghanistan began a year ago this week. An analysis from the first day of combat of the tactics and capabilities exhibited by U.S. military forces identifies a number of trends and assesses effectiveness in terms of original mission objectives.

• The Future of U.S. Military Operations in Afghanistan

  After an initial wide-ranging air campaign and a period of intense ground conflict, U.S. military operations are in a second phase characterized by short-term coordinated air and ground assaults against targets of opportunity. After one year of combat operations, which challenges confront U.S. forces, and how will they shape future operations?

• Afghanistan: Fulfilling the Promise of Enduring Freedom

  Expanding the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan would buy time for a National Afghan Army to be built, helping to stabilize Afghanistan in the interim, thereby encouraging donors to supply the international aid so necessary for the country's reconstruction. Such an expansion may not be an easy option, but it may yet prove the easiest if the reconstruction of Afghanistan is to succeed and Operation Enduring Freedom is to live up to the promise explicit in its name.

• Anticipating Challenges, Seizing Opportunities, and Building Capabilities at the 2001 Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference

  The first Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference was well-conceived, organized, and executed, and presented diverse and interdisciplinary opinions on some of the most important issues that are shaping the national and international security debate. It also largely avoided the descent into sectional interests that such venues often succumb to. As such, the conference bodes well for its successors in the series.

• In the Spotlight: Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)

  The Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), once one of the most feared transnational terrorist organizations, is now at a crossroads. The mid-August, 2002, death of the leader Sabri al Banna (aka Abu Nidal or "father of the struggle") has left many open questions, such as who is to succeed him, where to relocate to, and -- most importantly, how will the organization survive.

• CDI's "Briefing Room"

  News updates on security issues from around the world.

• This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "Iraq and the U.N. Security Council"

Anticipating Challenges, Seizing Opportunities, and Building Capabilities at the 2001 Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference
Mark Burgess, CDI Research Analyst, mburgess@cdi.org

The 2001 Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference took place in Washington, D.C. on Sept. 26-27. Entitled "National Security for the 21st Century: Anticipating Challenges, Seizing Opportunities, Building Capabilities," the conference was the first in an annual series, and was co-sponsored by: The Conference Board; The Lexington Institute, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; The Peter F. Drucker Foundation for Nonprofit Management; the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Net Assessment, and the United States Army.

Setting the tone for what was an interdisciplinary and varied approach, the panel tasked with "Anticipating Challenges" approached the topic from congressional, historical, international economic, and military and security perspectives. Of the four speakers, Congressman Jerry Lewis, R.-Calif., had the least to add to the debate (having to leave early to attend to House business) -- expressing his faith in the Bush Administration’s national security team along with his belief that such an experienced team of experts had only come together by design -- a somewhat self-evident truth that is nonetheless more reassuring than any ‘accidental’ gathering of a national security staff. Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Anne Kruger added an interesting dimension to events with what amounted to an unsurprising, if persuasive, defense of globalization, while Director of National Security Studies at National Defense University Dr. Stephen J. Flanagan provided a concise overview of how globalization affects U.S. defense policy. The most thought-provoking aspect of the panel, however, was provided by Nobel Prizewinner Professor Douglas C. North, who questioned the utility of neo-classical economic theories in explaining the differing economic performance in various parts of the world that is often seen as the cause of international security dilemmas. Viewing military options as short-term, if necessary, expedients in the war on terrorism, North argued convincingly for the need to understand the belief systems that evolve in Muslim societies as a means of confronting the fanaticism characterized by the Sept. 11 attacks.

The next panel, entitled "Security Cooperation -- Working with Others in a Globalized World" proved the liveliest of the proceedings, largely due to the participation of newspaper columnist Charles Krauthammer. Dr. Krauthammer (who holds a medical doctorate) put up a spirited (and often acidly witty) defense of a unilateral approach to foreign policy. On first appearance Krauthammer appeared unfairly outnumbered on this panel -- which included a perspective on multilateralism from Dr. G. John Ikenberry, and international perspectives from Dr. Thérèse Delpech and Dr. Yuchichia Funabashi– however he proved more than capable of fighting his corner. Indeed, arguably it was not so much the matter as the manner of Dr. Krauthammer’s speech that ultimately undermined his case. This provided an insight into how such unilateralism as he proposes could lead to charges of American arrogance should it become national practice, and incite international alienation against the United States.

"Building Capabilities" focused, as might be expected, on one of the current topics de jour in Washington -- "Realizing Military Transformation," but also on "Building Capabilities for International Efforts" -- the subjects of panels III and IV respectively. Like the other issues covered at the conference, both topics were explored from a range of viewpoints and by a variety of commentators. Transformation was also the subject of the conference’s closing address by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Meyers (USAF), who finished what was a well-rounded treatment of a topic often looked at in purely technical terms. While Meyers ended the conference, the most talked-about address was not his, nor the competent if predictable keynote address by Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta. That honor went to the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, Mr. Dick Grassco, who inspired his audience with a somewhat gung-ho tour de force on the topic of "Economics and National Security" which left his audience in no doubt as to the connection between the two.

All in all, the first Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference was well-conceived, organized, and executed, and presented diverse and interdisciplinary opinions on some of the most important issues that are shaping the national and international security debate. It also largely avoided the descent into sectional interests to which such venues often succumb. As such, the conference bodes well for its successors in the series. The real proof of the conference’s success, however, will come when the fruits of its discussions percolate down and up from the mid- and senior-level audience at which it was primarily aimed. Revolutions are seldom exclusively top-down or bottom-up, and the revolution in international relations that is needed to deal with the accelerated evolutions in strategic and military affairs that gathered pace in the closing years of the twentieth century is no exception.

Click here for the full proceedings of the 2001 Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Conference.

CDI’s "Briefing Room"

UK: Forced Removal of Hussein Illegal -- UK Attorney General Lord Goldsmith has told Prime Minister Tony Blair that attacking Iraq in order to force a regime change would be a violation of international law, according to the Financial Times (Oct. 9). Lord Goldsmith’s advisory opinion details limited circumstances when military action in support of U.N. Security Council resolutions are permitted and supports new U.N. resolutions, but rules out military force as a legal method for forcing a regime change. Blair last month told the British House of Commons that the government "will always act in accordance with international law."

Russia Threatens Chemical Treaty Withdrawal -- Russia may pull out of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) if it is not permitted to extend the agreement’s deadline to destroy its chemical arsenal, according to The Times of London (Oct. 8). The CWC calls for member nations to destroy their weapons arsenals within ten years of the treaty’s entry into force, which occurred in April, 1997. Due to shortages of funds the Russian government says it is not possible for it to meet that deadline, and would therefore be forced to withdraw from the treaty of the deadline is not extended by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The OPCW is responsible for the implementation and verification of the convention.

Sudan Government, Rebels in Peace Talks -- The Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) are expected to sign a partial cease-fire when peace talks resume in Kenya next week, according to Voice of America (Oct. 11). Talks were suspending in September after the SPLA took the strategic town of Torit, which government forces recaptured this week. According to Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir the cease-fire will not apply to areas of Eastern Sudan recently occupied by the rebels. The civil war in Sudan dates back to 1983.

British Fighters Respond to False Alarm -- An undisclosed number of UK Tornado fighters were scrambled last week in response to what turned out to be a false hijacking report aboard a British Airways flight, according to Sky News (Oct. 4). The captain of the flight from Baltimore to Heathrow airport in London overheard two passengers talking about a possible hijacking, and notified air traffic controllers. London police boarded the plane after it landed at Heathrow and determined that no crime had been committed.

One-Third of Russian Conscripts Unfit for Service -- A third of Russian conscripts are unfit for military service due to health problems, according to a senior Russian defense official quoted in a story by the the Interfax-Military News Agency (Oct. 7). Of the most recent group of 175,000 draftees, 23 percent had psychological disorders, 13 percent had muscle or skeletal problems and 10 percent had digestive problems. In addition, the number of HIV-positive conscripts is also on the rise. In a related story, the Agency noted that 1,200 conscripts had been charged with falsifying their medical records during the first six months of 2002, a common practice for those trying to avoid military service that has spawned a cottage industry in Russia.

Quotation of the Week -- "In a situation currently marked by threats of the use of power, [Jimmy] Carter has stood by the principles that conflicts must as far as possible be resolved through mediation and international co-operation based on international law, respect for human rights, and economic development," excerpt from Nobel Foundation press release announcing the awarding of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize to former President Jimmy Carter, October 11, 2002. Click here for the full text of the press release.

This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "Iraq and the U.N. Security Council"

The United States is heavily courting Russia, China, and France for a U.N. resolution authorizing military force against Iraq if Saddam Hussein refuses to disarm. Will the U.S. have it's resolution approved? How do other countries perceive the possibility of U.S. military action in Iraq?

Joining Superpower moderator Mark Thompson of Time magazine this week to examine the issue will be Tatyana Malkina, Political Columnist with Vremya Novostei; Richard Wolffe, U.S. Diplomatic Correspondent from the Financial Times; and Jacqueline Grapin, President of the European Institute.

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