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| August 29, 2002 |
Global Arms Sales Fall, But U.S. has Most Exports
Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst rstohl@cdi.org
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has released its annual report, “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1994-2001,” detailing trends in global arms transfers. The report revealed that although the United States again leads the world in arms exports, the value of arms agreements and deliveries fell substantially from previous totals and was the lowest total since 1997.
The CRS report (also known as the Grimmett Report after its author, Richard Grimmett) defines developing nations as all countries except the United States, Russia, the European nations, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The report examines the export of 14 categories of conventional weapons: tanks and selfpropelled guns, artillery, armored personnel carriers and armored cars, major surface combatants, minor surface combatants, submarines, guided missile patrol boats, supersonic combat aircraft, subsonic combat aircraft, other aircraft, helicopters, surfacetoair missiles, surfacetosurface missiles, and antiship missiles.
Arms sales can be measured in terms of arms agreements (contracts) and those that are actually delivered in a particular year. These totals are often not the same, because it may take a few years for the weapons production and the sale to be completed once agreed upon.
Worldwide, the United States ranked first in arms transfer agreements, making nearly $12.1 billion worth of agreements in 2001 for 45.8 percent of all agreements globally. This is a decrease from $18.9 billion in 2000. Russia was second with $5.8 billion in agreements globally for 22 percent of the world total, down from 2000 levels of $8.4 billion. France ranked third with $2.9 billion in agreements, well below its $4.3 billion level in 2000. However, these three countries made up 78.8 percent of the world total of arms agreements, valued at $20.8 billion (the world total was nearly $26.4 billion). The United States also had the most arms transfer agreements with developing nations at $7.6 billion (43.6 percent). Russia ranked second at $5.76 billion (29.6 percent) and China was third with $600 million (3.8 percent). Developing countries made 60.5 percent of world arms transfer agreements.
The world total for arms deliveries was also lower in 2001 than in previous years. In 2001, global arms deliveries totaled $21.3 billion, which is far lower than the $32.6 billion in 2000. The United States led the world with arms deliveries as well. Globally, the United States made nearly $9.7 billion in deliveries (45.6 percent). The United Kingdom was second in global arms deliveries with $4 billion and Russia was third with $3.6 billion. The report points out that these three countries delivered approximately $17.3 billion worth of weapons in 2001, 81.2 percent of the world total. The United States was also first in terms of total arms deliveries to the developing nations with $6 billion (41.7 percent). Russia was second with $3.4 billion (23.6 percent) and the United Kingdom was third with $3.3 billion (22.9 percent) of deliveries to the developing world.
Even though total arms transfer agreements fell substantially in value, arms transfer agreements with the developing world totaled almost $16 billion and made up 60.5 percent of the world total in 2001. Israel led the developing world in arms transfer agreements in 2001 with $2.5 billion worth of agreements. China was second in the developing world with $2.1 billion worth of agreements and Egypt was third with $2 billion. If one examines the 1998-2001 trend, however, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) conducted the most arms transfer agreements in the developing world with $10.8 billion in agreements, India was second with $7.2 billion, and China was third with $6.7 billion. Indeed, the UAE was the developing world’s leading arms buyer from 1994-2001 with $16 billion worth of weapons deals.
Arms deliveries to the developing world totaled $14.4 billion in 2001. The developing world received 67.6% of the world’s arms deliveries. Saudi Arabia received the most arms deliveries in the developing world in 2001, with $4.8 billion in weapons. China was second with $2.2 billion in arms deliveries, and Taiwan was third with $1.2 billion.
Major U.S. sales in 2001 included 52 F-16s produced by Lockheed Martin and related equipment and services to Israel for $1.8 billion, 111 Lockheed Martin Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to South Korea, and 71 Boeing Harpoon missiles to Taiwan. Major Russian sales included 40 Su-30 MKK fighter aircraft, totaling more than $1.5 billion, to China and Mig-29 fighter jets to Burma and Yemen.
The report found that global arms sales, as well as those specifically in the developing world, fell this year because of "limited financial resources" due to poor economic conditions worldwide. The economic downturn has forced some countries to upgrade existing systems rather than purchase new weapons and weapons systems. Moreover, the decrease in arms agreements has led to increased competition between countries and manufacturers and has contributed to multinational mergers and joint production ventures. The report predicts that former Warsaw Pact countries as well as specific countries in the Near East, Asia, and Latin America are the biggest targets for increased weapons sales in the years to come. The report also argues that the United States is in no danger of relinquishing its worldwide domination of the arms market, as countries will continue to rely on the United States to upgrade existing systems that originated in the United States, train and provide support services on existing systems, and sell munitions to use in previously purchased systems.
For more information on the CRS report see, "U.S. Leads World In Arms Exports" Weekly Defense Monitor, Aug. 30, 2001; "U.S. Still Number One Arms Exporter,” Weekly Defense Monitor, Aug. 24, 2000; "Developing World Receives $28.6 Billion in Conventional Arms in 1997," Weekly Defense Monitor, Aug. 28, 2000; and "Developing World Remains Attractive Arms Market," Weekly Defense Monitor, Aug. 12, 1999.
Missile Defense Flight Test Delayed
Victoria Samson, Research Associate, vsamson@cdi.org
Saturday, Aug. 24, was to be the date of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA)’s ninth integrated flight test (IFT-9) of its ground-based midcourse missile defense system (GMD). Instead, four days before the test the MDA announced that it would have to be delayed for at least a month due to an unexpected vulnerability in one of the GMD flight test components. This delay does not bode well for the overall development of the system.
The cause of the delay was given as, possibly, damaged seals of the exhaust nozzle on the booster rocket, which would affect the rocket’s steering. Because program officials were unsure if an electrical variation during a pre-flight ground test had actually damaged the nozzle, they decided not to risk failure of the $100 million test and instead delayed it long enough to replace the rocket motors.
The booster in question is a modified two-stage Minuteman II, formerly part of an ICBM armed with nuclear warheads. MDA is trying to downplay the importance of the booster’s failure to the overall program, claiming that it will be replaced in IFT-11 with a new three-stage boost vehicle. This schedule seems wildly optimistic, however, as the new booster would need to be ready in roughly six months (although MDA does not announce test dates more than a few weeks in advance, it has been holding GMD flight tests every three months or so), particularly given that the booster rocket development program has already experienced a number of difficulties and delays.
Boeing Co. was initially supposed to design the rocket, but that project fell so far behind that the MDA gave the contract to Lockheed Martin Corp., and, to ensure that some sort of usable rocket would be available, asked Orbital in March 2002 to develop an alternative boost vehicle. Boeing, as the lead systems integrator for the GMD program, will choose which booster to use, but either way it seems unlikely that a new booster will be ready in the near future.
MDA’s apparent lack of concern notwithstanding, the problems with the GMD booster are significant. The missile being used during the flight tests is an inadequate substitute: in a battlefield situation it most likely would not function well enough to achieve a successful intercept. Yet the new booster rocket being developed has had two flight tests thus far and failed both of them. During the first test in August 2001, the booster rocket suffered an anomaly during its first stage that probably would have affected its performance during hostilities. The boost vehicle performed even worse during its second test in December 2001. Half a minute after its launch it veered off-course, causing MDA officials to immediately order it to self-destruct.
Although development of a GMD system has been going on for some time (the first IFT test occurred in June, 1997), a number of daunting technological challenges remain. Yet in spite of continued delays and a lackluster testing record under the best possible conditions, the Bush administration steadily clings to its plan for an "emergency" deployment of five missiles in Alaska by 2004.
It remains to be seen if IFT-9, whenever it occurs, can get the program back on track. Three new variables were to be introduced in this test: more complex decoys were to be incorporated in the target basket; new battle management software was to be tested; and a sea-based Aegis SPY-1 radar was to be used for the first time in a national missile defense capacity to track missiles in-flight. It is safe to say that these new elements will reveal a whole new set of problems, even as the MDA is still trying to get basic components of GMD -- like the booster rocket -- to work. The delay of IFT-9 is particularly troubling because it is not related to a new technology under development, but instead is tied to an established missile that has been part of the U.S. arsenal for several decades. The failure of such a mature, well-tested system like the Minuteman II illustrates how far away missile defense actually is from being ready to deploy.
British Could Use Electronic Weapon Against Iraq -- The British military is prepared to use a new secret electronic weapon against Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons sites, according to the London Daily Telegraph (Aug. 26). The "radio frequency weapon," also known as an E-Bomb, can disable electronic and electrical systems without killing humans. It works by sending out high intensity radio waves whose effects are said to be similar to those of an electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear explosion. The radio pulse is said to be effective even against buried targets, as the waves will easily travel through power and ventilation ducts.
DoD Official: WMD Attack by Terrorists Unlikely -- An attack against the United States by terrorists using weapons of mass destruction is unlikely, according to Stephen Younger, the head of the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency. In an interview with Government Executive (GovExec.com, Aug. 23), Mr. Younger says that past terrorist attacks indicate that such groups favor explosive devises that show quick results, rather than more complicated WMD weapons that don’t always have an immediate impact. Despite this, Mr. Younger believes that the consequences of such an attack merit their being one of the government’s highest priorities. Said Mr. Younger, "we are dealing with a low probability, high consequence event."
Revised CBO Estimate Projects Deficit in 2002 -- While estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in March projected a modest $5 billion surplus for fiscal year 2002, new figures released this week now forecast a $157 billion deficit. The projections also show continued deficits in each of the next three fiscal years -- $145 billion in 2003, $111 billion in 2004, and $39 billion in 2005. CBO expects a cumulative surplus of $1.015 trillion between now and 2012, but most of that ($845 billion) is realized after 2010, when newly enacted tax breaks are set to expire. The Bush Administration has claimed that the tax breaks can be made permanent and the government can still run a surplus. In March CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $2.4 trillion through 2012, similar to the $2.5 billion expected by the White House.
U.S. Grounds Part of Apache Helicopter Fleet -- The U.S. Army has grounded its fleet of AH-64 "Apache" attack helicopter fleet in South Korea following a fatal crash last week which killed both pilots. The helicopter crashed in hilly terrain in fog. The cause of the crash is as yet unknown, and Army sources have not announced how long the fleet will be grounded. The Army operates about 70 Apaches in South Korea.
Incinerator Accidentally Releases Nerve Agent -- VX nerve agents were accidentally released from the U.S. Army’s chemical weapons incinerator on Johnston Atoll earlier this month according to InsideDefense.com (Aug. 27). According to the story, which was confirmed by an August 16 Army press release, quantities of VX nerve agent 45 times greater than permitted limits were discovered in incinerator wastes on Aug. 12, although the Army statement did not discuss whether any of the agent was released in to the environment. Incineration is the Army’s method of choice for eliminating the U.S. stockpile of chemical agents.
Quotation of the Week -- "With our help, a liberated Iraq can be a great nation once again. Iraq is rich in natural resources and human talent, and has unlimited potential for a peaceful, prosperous future. Our goal would be an Iraq that has territorial integrity, a government that is democratic and pluralistic, a nation where the human rights of every ethnic and religious group are recognized and protected," Vice President Richard Cheney speaking at the 103rd national convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, August 26, 2002.
"If we’d gone to Baghdad and got rid of Saddam Hussein -- assuming we could have found him -- we’d have had to put a lot of forces in and run him to ground some place. He would not have been easy to capture. Then you’ve got to put a new government in his place and then you’re faced with the question of what kind of government are you going to establish in Iraq? Is it going to be a Kurdish government or a Shia government or a Sunni government? How many forces are you going to have to leave there to keep it propped up, how many casualties are you going to take through the course of this operation?" Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney, "The Desert War -- A Kind of Victory," BBC Radio 4, February 16, 1992.
This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "The Johannesburg Earth Summit"
SUPERPOWER, together with foreign experts from around the world, examines the timely issues that affect the United States. This week, Superpower examines the impact of U.S. environmental policy. How do other countries perceive the impact of the U.S. on the global environment? How do other countries perceive the fact that President Bush is not attending the Johannesburg Summit? What role should the U.S. play in protecting the world's environment?
Host Lisa Simeone, of National Public Radio, will be joined by a distinguished panel of international guests this week: Jacqueline Grapin, President and cofounder of the European Institute; Myron Ebell, from the Competitive Enterprise Institute; Luiz Ros, from the World Resources Insitute; and Esther Seng, attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law.
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