|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| August 1, 2002 |
Small Arms Continue to Proliferate
Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
One year ago, world governments came together in the first global conference on small arms, the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All its Aspects, held July 9-20, 2001. (For more information on the Conference and its outcome, see "UN Conference on Small Arms Concludes With Consensus," Weekly Defense Monitor, July 26, 2001.) But in the year since governments agreed on a comprehensive program of action to stop the proliferation of small arms and diminish their negative effects, small arms continue to saturate many countries and conflicts around the world.
According to a recently released report, The Small Arms Survey 2002: Counting the Human Cost, there are approximately 639 million small arms in circulation around the world. (The Small Arms Survey Yearbook is a publication of the Small Arms Survey, a project out of the Graduate Institute of International Studies of the University of Geneva. It is a collaboration between government, researchers, and non-governmental organizations.)
Small arms and light weapons are the weapons of choice in the majority of today’s conflicts and are defined as any weapon that can be carried by one or two people, mounted on a vehicle, or carried by a pack animal. Small arms include pistols, hunting rifles, machine guns, while light weapons include shoulder-fired rocket launchers and mortars.
Small arms production continues to be a profitable trade for many countries and manufacturers around the world. The Survey found that there were over 1,000 companies in approximately 98 countries that produced small arms. Approximately eight million new small arms and light weapons are manufactured each year. According to the Survey, thirteen countries dominate the global small arms market. The United States and Russia are the world’s largest exporters, and China is believed to be a major exporter as well (accurate data from China has been difficult for the Survey to obtain). The small arms trade is believed to total $4-5 billion every year, with approximately 80-90% of the trade taking part on the legal market.
The study also found that civilians purchase more than 80 percent of the eight million new weapons manufactured every year. Approximately 59.2 percent of small arms are privately owned, while government armed forces possess 37.8 percent of small arms in the world. Police are believed to possess 2.8 percent and insurgents 0.2 percent of the small arms in circulation.
The United States has 220-230 million small arms within its borders, according to the Survey, and is one of the most saturated countries in the world. Moreover, the United States has over 28,00 deaths a year from small arms accidents, suicides, and homicides, the highest rate in the developed world. In fact, firearms are the leading cause of death of 15-24 year olds in the United States and the third leading cause of death for children under 15.
Civilians around the world, not only the United States, are targets of small arms and light weapons. In addition, humanitarian workers have become targets in today’s conflicts. The Survey found that "if the United Nations was (sic) treated as a country, it ended up having a death by firearms violence rate of between 17 and 25 per 100,000 which makes it among the most dangerous countries in the world." In the last decade alone, the study found that 100 relief workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross were killed and approximately 280 injured due to small arms.
The United States government alienated many of its allies at last year’s conference with a go-it-alone, uncompromising position on a limited Program of Action that didn’t include sections on civilian possession, non-state actors, and legally binding conventions. Now, the United States’ work on small arms tends to be through unilateral or bilateral programs that focus on training in the areas of stockpile security and management, as well as weapons destruction programs. The Small Arms Survey found, however, that no more than two million small arms are destroyed every year. Experts have agreed that there is a definite link between small arms and terrorism. But, since Sept. 11, the small arms issue, like many others, has taken a back seat to more pressing issues of homeland security and intelligence gathering. To create a more secure world, with increased domestic and international security, a comprehensive, cooperative strategy must be developed and implemented to address the continued proliferation of small arms.
Rwanda-Congo Peace Agreement: A Real Chance for a Peaceful Congo?
Colin Robinson, CDI Research Analyst crobinson@cdi.org
The signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, its most lasting enemy, on June 22 in South Africa, has brought some hope for a true peace in the former Zaire, which has bee wracked by conflict since before the current regime took power in 1997. It follows agreements with other rebel-supporting neighboring countries that may, together with this latest step forward, give some hope of fully implementing the Lusaka Accords peace agreement that was signed in 1999. A settlement and peaceful development in the Congo would have great potential to calm conflicts in bordering countries -- the Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and Angola, in fact, in most of Central Africa. In turn, greater regional stability could avoid continued chaos and eliminate future safe harbors for terrorists.
The war in the Congo stems from disagreements which arose after Laurent Kabila ousted the regime of the dictator Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997. The current President, Joseph Kabila, is his son. Following Kabila’s seizure of power in May 1997, relations with former backers Rwanda and Uganda worsened, and the situation became critical when elements of the Congolese Army rebelled in August 1998, not having been paid for months. They became the basis of the Congolese Rally for Democracy (whose French acronym is RCD), which was supported by Rwanda. A second rebel force, the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC), appeared in the north in August 1998 supported by Uganda.
Both Rwanda and Uganda were motivated by security concerns and also by the chance to profit from the incredible mineral and natural wealth of the Congo. By late October 1998, the RCD claimed to control a third of the territory of the Congo, after an attack on the capital Kinshasa had only been defeated by the intervention of Angolan, Zimbabwean, and Namibian troops. The Lusaka Accords, signed in Zambia in July and August 1999, were agreed to by all of the involved parties, though not by some insurgent groups which use DRC territory to fight the Burundian, Ugandan, and Angolan governments. The Accords provided for a ceasefire, withdrawal of all foreign forces, and an open dialogue aimed at an all-inclusive new Congolese government. Despite the deployment of a UN observer force to help implement the accords, little progress was achieved because the parties were not interested in fully implementing the agreement.
The key to resolving the conflict in the Congo is to settle the security concerns of neighboring states who would then not need to station troops in the country to assure the safety of their borders. Additional agreements separate from the Lusaka Accords were necessary to achieve this, and the July 22 agreement is a key piece. The progress of an earlier April 19 agreement between the Uganda-backed MLC, other smaller parties, and the Congo government is unclear: while a 30-month transitional period was stipulated, there is little information as to how the implementation of the agreement has turned out.
The Rwanda-Congo agreement provides for the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from the Congo, and the cessation of support by the Congo government for Rwandan rebel forces -- numbering about 12,000 -- who currently are based in government-controlled areas of the Congo. This could provide a basis for the full implementation of the 1999 Lusaka Accords, possibly supported by an increased UN force, whose numbers currently stand at 3,804 out of an authorized strength of 5,537, including over 3,100 troops. Such a force has been suggested to man a border security zone along Congo’s eastern border, in order to alleviate Rwandan, Congolese, and Ugandan security concerns. Some commentators suggesting a 30,000 strong force might be appropriate.
U.S. Ends Initial Deployment to Philippines, Announces New Operations -- Following a six-month training operation in the Philippines that ends this week, U.S. and Philippino officials have announced a new round of training exercises that will run through next June. According to Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Roy Cimatu, a total of 4,000 troops will be involved in the exercises, but did not specifically mention the number of U.S. personnel. A Philippines military spokesperson indicated that different U.S. units might deploy for specific exercises, some of which could overlap. About 1,000 U.S. military personnel were deployed as part of the counterterrorism exercise. The coming exercises will cover a much broader range of operations, including training of elite units and regular marine and army forces.
Australia Successfully Launches "Scramjet" -- Australian scientists successfully launched the world’s first operational "scramjet" engine, a hypersonic engine that could one day propel aircraft at speeds of over 5,000 miles per hour (8,000km), and dramatically decrease the costs of space launches. The scientists say that it will take several weeks to determine if the engine actually worked as planned. Scramjets use oxygen from air rushing through the engine at extremely high speeds to ignite special hydrogen fuel. The test follows a previously failed test by the same "HyShot" project team, and by a failed test of NASA’s X-34A last year.
Temporary CTR Waiver to be Granted -- The Defense Supplemental Appropriations bill for fiscal year 2002 includes a year-long waiver for Nunn?Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction projects in Russia. This waiver will allow the programs to begin signing new contracts, which has been prohibited since the administration refused certification of Russian compliance with the Chemical and Biological Weapons Conventions in April. The legislation has passed both the House and Senate and President Bush is expected to sign it promptly, Meanwhile, an indefinite waiver is being considered in conference as part of the FY 2003 Defense Authorization Act. For background information, see "Crucial Nonproliferation Assistance to Russia Hangs in The Balance, Again," Weekly Defense Monitor, May 30, 2002.
Boeing May Build F-22 Bomber Variant -- The U.S. Air Force may allow Boeing to build a strike version of Lockheed Martin’s F-22 air-superiority fighter, according to the Wall Street Journal (July 29). The attack variant, referred to as the FB-22, is only an idea at this point, and not an actual program, but the proposal is widely reported to have caught the attention of Air Force Secretary James Roche. The plan is being considered in part to keep Boeing active in the fighter industry, following the Pentagon’s awarding of the Joint Strike Fighter program to Lockheed Martin earlier this year.
Quotation of the Week -- "The decision to go to war can never be taken lightly. I believe that a foreign policy, especially one that involves the use of force, cannot be sustained in America without the informed consent of the American people," Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, committee hearing on Iraq, July 31, 2002.
This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "The Bush Plan for Palestine"
NOTE: Superpower is taking a break the next two weeks, and will be re-airing shows from previous weeks. We will be back with a new episode on Wednesday, August 14th.
SUPERPOWER, together with foreign experts from around the world, examines the timely issues that affect the United States. Superpower explains the foreign take on world events and their relationship to the world's only superpower.
This week's episode will feature a discussion of the future of Palestine. Joining the panel will be Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Washington Bureau Chief for Die Zeit, George Hishmeh, Columnist for the The Daily Star of Lebanon, Marina Ottoway, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Shoshana Bryen, Director of Special Projects, at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.
WHERE TO SEE SUPERPOWER:
SUPERPOWER is aired in the Washington, DC area on Wednesday at 8:30pm on MHz, and again on Sunday at 12:30pm on MHz2 (check local listings at: http://www.mhznetworks.org/cable/listings.h tml).
Superpower is broadcast nationwide:
WorldLinkTV, Channel 9410 on Echostar Communications Corporation's DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system. Superpower and WorldLinkTV are available on Channel 375 on DIRECTV® satellite TV service.
Broadcast times for Superpower: Global Affairs TV on WorldLinkTV
Saturdays: 6:30 p.m. EDT
Sundays: 2:30 a.m., 8:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT
To see when Superpower broadcasts on WorldlinkTV and your DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system or your DIRECTV® satellite TV service, please visit: http://www.worldlink tv.com/cgi-bin/displayProgram.cgi?code=superpower
For more information, please send an e-mail to: info@superpowertv.org. For free transcripts of past shows, go to www.superpowertv.org