|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| June 20, 2002 |
United States and North Korea to Resume Talks
Devon Chaffee, Herbert Scoville, Jr. Peace Fellow, dchaffee@cdi.org
The Bush administration has recently announced that, for the first time since November 2000, the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will resume high-level talks. It seems likely that American Ambassador-at-Large Charles Pritchard will visit Pyongyang, North Korea sometime this summer, as early as next month. Whether the two countries will use these talks to move forward with the Agreed Framework, bringing the DPRK into compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, particularly given the hostile policy of the Bush administration, remains unclear.
The 1994 Agreed Framework, negotiated under the Clinton administration, was an effort to prevent the DPRK from abandoning the Nonproliferation Treaty regime. The United States agreed to provide the DPRK with two light water reactors (LWRs) and heavy fuel oil for civilian use. In exchange, the DPRK agreed to freeze its nuclear weapons program and to eventually dismantle its graphite reactors, which can be more easily utilized for weapon purposes.
Since the framework was agreed upon, the DPRK has allowed IAEA inspectors to monitor the DPRK’s graphite reactors and related facilities to verify the freeze. The DPRK is not required to be in complete compliance with IAEA standards until after a significant portion of the light-water reactor is completed, and before delivery of key nuclear components. The reactor is under construction by KEDO, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, at Kumho. Originally predicted to be finished in 2003, it is now likely that a significant portion of the reactor will not be completed until 2005.
Since the Bush administration took office, U.S.-DPRK relations have deteriorated. The administration has referred to DPRK as a member of the "axis of evil," and released a nuclear posture review that includes contingency plans for use of nuclear weapons against the DPRK. In addition, it thwarted bilateral talks on missile control started by the Clinton administration, and unilaterally upped the Agreed Framework requirements to be met by DPRK, refusing to certify their compliance on the basis of anticipatory breach.
The administration says that because it will take 3-4 years for the DPRK to come into compliance with IAEA safeguards, the DPRK must start now. The framework does not include such a mandate and does not rule out a lag time between the completion of a significant portion of the reactor and the delivery of key nuclear components.
A number of Democratic Members of the U.S. House of Representatives known for actively supporting disarmament and nonproliferation efforts have also been critical of the Agreed Framework. Twelve House Democrats, including Edward Markey (Mass.) and Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), proposed a joint resolution last week calling for the United States to "refrain from providing to North Korea, nuclear reactor technologies that can be exploited for nuclear weapons purposes," (see H.J. RES. 97). Though the LWRs are less susceptible to dual use than the graphite reactors they are replacing, it is difficult to verify, with total certainty, that the technology is not being diverted.
U.S. policy makers are understandably frustrated that the DPRK is not in compliance with its safeguard agreement. It is equally understandable, however, that the DPRK may fear that by coming into full IAEA compliance before the completion of a significant portion of the LWR, or at least before relations with the United States improve, it might lose the political leverage necessary to ensure the completion of the reactor.
Several experts, such as Selig Harrison, director of the National Security Project at the Centre for International Policy, have suggested that this barrier could be surmounted by linking different stages of the LWR construction process to stages of the IAEA compliance procedures. The Nautilus Institute has suggested that the United States might offer to help strengthen the DRPK energy infrastructure so that the electricity grid would be better equipped to handle the energy generated by the reactors. The DRPK transmission and distribution grid has disintegrated significantly and currently would not allow the LWR to operate as intended.
For the United States, retaining the Agreed Framework is important, not only for preserving some transparency measures in the DPRK, but also for maintaining positive relations with other powers in the region including South Korea and Japan, a country in which high level officials seem to be reconsidering their non-nuclear commitments. Though it seems unlikely that the Bush administration is willing to make any of the concessions that would lead towards significant breakthroughs in bringing the DPRK into IAEA compliance, hopefully the upcoming talks will help restore some of the confidence lost over the past year.
U.S. Advisors in Philippines to Join Patrols -- The Bush Administration has approved plans for U.S. military advisors to join with members of the Philippine armed forces on jungle patrols. There are roughly 1,200 U.S. advisors in the Philippines helping to train the military in counter-terrorism as the government battles Abu Sayyaf rebels in the south of the country. Until now U.S. personnel have not been limited to training, and did not include field exercises. The Administration still plans, however, to withdraw all U.S. forces from the Philippines by the July 31 deadline agreed to by the two governments when the deployment was approved back in February.
DoD Study Finds No Environmental Impact of Chemical Weapons Elimination -- The Pentagon has released an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that states no significant impact would result from a pilot test of a non-incineration alternative for the destruction of chemical weapons at four chemical weapons storage sites. The U.S. Army has eight chemical weapons facilities, each of which is working to eliminate their stockpiles, and incineration is currently the Army’s method of choice. This has raised environmental and safety concerns in the surrounding communities, and as a result, the Army is looking at non-incineration alternatives. The EIS selected a non-incineration alternative as the preferred method for just one of the sites -- the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado. Incineration is already the planned destruction method at two of the other sites studied in the EIS.
Annual Deficit to Exceed $100 Billion -- According to the latest estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit for the current fiscal year will exceed $100 billion, and could reach as high as $150 billion. This news comes as Congress begins consideration of the thirteen annual appropriations bills that set federal spending for the coming year. Last fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 30, saw a $127 billion surplus, and as recently as March CBO was projecting a modest $5 billion surplus for the current year. Since then the economic stimulus package that contained major tax cuts and a major agricultural support bill have become law, driving deficit projections up.
Small Plane Violates D.C. Restricted Airspace -- A privately-owned aircraft caused the White House to be evacuated for 15 minutes the evening of June 19 when it accidentally strayed in to restricted airspace over Washington D.C. The aircraft, which was 8,000 feet below the restricted altitude and failed to respond to radio hails, was escorted by two F-16 fighters to Richmond International Airport. The plane was a Cessna 182 "Skylane," a single-propeller aircraft that can carry up to four people. In a related story, Virginia State Troopers temporarily detained the Oscar Mayer "Wienermobile" when it accidentally attempted to drive down a restricted highway adjacent to the Pentagon on June 18. The "Weinermobile" promotional vehicle is a twenty-seven foot long replica of a hot dog and bun.
Quotation of the Week -- "Rather than choosing a symbolic date, especially on the intelligence front, we should move very slowly," Congressman Tim Roemer, (D-IN), responding to some members of Congress who are urging that legislation creating the new Department of Homeland Security be fast-tracked in order to have it enacted by Sept. 11, the Washington Post, June 19, 2002.
This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "Iran in the Middle"
"SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV" showcases international television coverage of world events. Host Lisa Simeone along with Mark Thompson of Time Magazine and Jefferson Morley of the washingtonpost.com, discuss current events with a regular rotation of foreign journalists, as well as other guests from the foreign military and diplomatic communities in Washington.
This Week on SUPERPOWER: Global Affairs TV -- "Iran in the Middle"
This week Superpower examines the relationship between the United States and Iran. How do other nations perceive the fact that Iran included in the "Axis of Evil"? What does the U.S. relationship with Iran mean for any potential conflict with Iraq? What is the relationship between Iran and other nations of the Persian Gulf region? Does Iran have the potential to become a democratic power allied with the United States?
Joining Lisa Simeone will be Adnan Al-Jadi, Washington Bureau Chief for Kuwait News Agency and Shaul Bakhash from George Mason University.
WHERE TO SEE SUPERPOWER:
SUPERPOWER is aired in the Washington, DC area on Wednesday at 8:30pm on MHz, and again on Sunday at 12:30pm on MHz2 (check local listings at: http://www.mhznetworks.org/cable/listings.html).
SUPERPOWER is also broadcast nationwide three times daily on WorldLinkTV, Channel 9410 on Echostar Communications Corporation's DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system. Superpower and WorldLinkTV are available on Channel 375 on DIRECTV® satellite TV service.
To see when Superpower broadcasts on WorldlinkTV and your DISH® Network direct broadcast satellite system or your DIRECTV® satellite TV service, please visit: http://www.worldlinktv.com/cgi-bin/displayProgram.cgi?code=superpower
For more information, please send an e-mail to: info@superpowertv.org. For free transcripts of past shows, go to www.superpowertv.org