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| September 25, 2001 |
Landmines Threaten Troops and Civilians
Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
Overshadowed by the events of the past week, the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) released "Landmine Monitor Report 2001: Toward a Mine Free World." The report, the third such report produced, provides a country-by-country analysis of mine use, production, trade, stockpiling, humanitarian demining, and mine survivor assistance. The ICBL initially undertook the Landmine Monitor Initiative in order to "monitor implementation of and compliance with the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty, and more generally to assess the efforts of the international community to resolve the landmine crisis." One hundred twenty-two researchers from 95 countries compiled the report, which was released to the Third Meeting of States parties to the Mine Ban Treaty in Managua, Nicaragua on Sept. 18.
In the four years since the Mine Ban Treaty was opened for signature, much progress has been made to eliminate the dangers these indiscriminate weapons pose to military personnel and civilians alike. However, while 141 countries have now signed the Mine Ban Treaty (119 have ratified), several countries remain outside the community of nations dedicated to eliminating these weapons, including the United States.
Although the report details a decrease in the number of landmine producers and numbers of casualties, and increased stockpile destruction and humanitarian mine action funding, the Landmine Monitor details continued use of landmines around the world. The report describes suspected use of landmines by Uganda, a treaty signatory, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Angola, also a treaty signatory, has admitted to continued landmine use in its ongoing conflict. Ethiopia, Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi are also suspected of using landmines, although the governments of those countries deny their usage.
Landmine Monitor reported that evidence demonstrates that landmines were used in 23 conflicts by 15 governments and approximately 30 non-state actors. The report found the majority of landmine usage was in ongoing conflicts, but detailed evidence of mines along borders in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and inside Tajikistan (by the Russian government), and in Macedonia. Researchers found the "most regular" mine use in Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Burma.
The release of the report is quite relevant to the ongoing discussions regarding the U.S. response to the attacks on New York and Washington. If the United States chooses a ground invasion, military forces will face dangers from landmines. Afghanistan is one of the world's most heavily mined countries. Estimates place the number of mines in Afghanistan at between 5 million and 10 million. Far more significantly, the Landmine Monitor reports that approximately 724 million square meters of the country is contaminated with landmines, approximately 11 percent of the total land area. Large areas of the country are therefore considered inaccessible due to landmine contamination. The majority of landmines in Afghanistan are from the Soviet occupation and the immediate aftermath (1980-1992), but internal fighting throughout the country from 1992-1996 is responsible for landmines in Kabul and the city outskirts. Recently, both the Taliban and Northern Alliance have accused the other of laying mines, but total usage has not proven substantial.
Because the people of Afghanistan have lived with the threat of landmines for decades, landmine casualties in Afghanistan also remain high. However, landmine deaths have steadily decreased in the last 10 years. In 1999, an estimated five to 10 people were killed daily by landmines and unexploded ordnance in Afghanistan; in 2000, that number had decreased to 88 per month. (Landmine Monitor reports an estimated 20 to 24 casualties a day due to landmines in 1993.) U.S. forces, not accustomed to such heavy landmine usage, will have difficulty keeping troops safe.
The dangers U.S. troops will face due to landmines are not unique to Afghanistan. Afghanistan's neighbors also have landmine issues. Besides Uzbekistan, which has used mines in skirmishes with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is reported to have mined its border with Afghanistan. Pakistan's government has also recognized landmine problems on its border with Afghanistan. Landmines will plague any ground force movement in Afghanistan, and their threat worldwide continues to be substantial.
For more information on Landmine Monitor see, "First Meeting of States Parties to Landmines Treaty Meet in Maputo," Weekly Defense Monitor, May 6, 1999, "Positive Steps, But Landmines Remain Major Issue," Weekly Defense Monitor, October 5, 2000, or visit the ICBL's website.
The Choices Before Former Soviet Republics
Tomas Valasek, Senior Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org
President George W. Bush's categorical "you are either with us or against us approach" forces Afghanistan's neighbors to scramble for a right mix of policies combining assistance for the United States with long-term regional aspirations.
RUSSIA
Russia expressed strong moral support for U.S. campaign against terrorism. Following the attacks on New York and Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately sent a message to President George W. Bush, saying that "the entire international community should unite in the struggle against terrorism." Moscow claims to be facing the same terrorist threats in Chechnya. Individuals close to Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network have indeed been reported to operate there, even though the vast majority of the population in this breakaway republic is fighting for independence from Russia rather than religious goals. To bolster Putin's campaign against Chechnya, often criticized in the West, Russian intelligence services already sought to link Chechnya to terrorist attacks in the United States. The Russian security service, FSB, announced that it discovered flight manuals in a hideout allegedly used by Chechen fighters.
But Russia's support was not unequivocal. Putin's declared foreign policy of rapprochement with the West has always been qualified with pursuit of Russia's regional agenda, often incompatible with the views of NATO and the European Union countries. Hence, Russia's initial statements of support were modified by considerations unrelated to the anti-terrorist campaign, such as the desire to add legitimacy to its Chechnya campaign and to strengthen its influence in Central Asia.
Moscow wants to maintain, and perhaps expand, its influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union. It quickly sought to maneuver itself in the position of a mediator between Washington and the independent republics of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, bordering on Afghanistan, whose bases the United States would like to use for military operations against Osama bin Laden and Afghanistan. Moscow sought to preempt NATO or U.S. presence in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the organization of former Soviet republics, by declaring, in the words of the country's Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, that "Central Asia is within the zone of competence of the CIS Collective Security Treaty -- [there are] no grounds, even hypothetical, for a possible NATO deployment in Central Asian States."
However, Moscow modified its stance after Washington apparently approached Central Asian countries directly. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on Wednesday that "each country will decide for itself to what degree it will be cooperating with the U.S.A." Moscow's compromise avoided a potentially humiliating defeat -- Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries were apparently willing to grant the United States forces the use of their land and air space anyway (see below for Uzbekistan's position).
As for Russia's own participation in the campaign, Moscow has extended intelligence cooperation while holding back on use of force. Russia and the United States remain divided over the questions of NATO enlargement, the alliance's roles, and what Russia calls "U.S. unilateralist policies" -- political and military operations outside the framework of the United Nations. Despite shared interest in fighting terrorism, Moscow is unwilling to take part in a U.S.-led coalition, especially one operating on or near the territory of the former Soviet Union. "The United States has armed forces powerful enough to handle the task by themselves," said Gen. Anatoly Kvashin, chief of Russia's General Staff. The Kremlin limited its participation to intelligence sharing and search and rescue efforts, if necessary.
At the same time, Moscow wants a say in developments in Afghanistan, particularly if U.S. actions result in the toppling of the Taliban regime and installment of a new government. Russia has an interest in making sure that the successor government is friendly to Moscow and helps stabilize regions to Russia's south. Putin needed a formula to keep a distance from U.S. operations, while becoming more closely engaged in military and political movements in Afghanistan. He found one in siding with the Northern Alliance, a grouping of Afghan military forces opposing the Taliban. Putin declared on Monday that Russia would support the alliance "through arms and technological supplies." In effect, Moscow has only confirmed what has already been its clandestine policy for some time but there is no doubt Russia is serious -- it will support anti-Taliban forces in order to give itself a decisive say in the composition of the government after Taliban.
UZBEKISTAN
Moscow's warnings to its former satellites to seek guidance from Russian on participation in the U.S. campaign seem to have fallen on deaf ears in Uzbekistan. Uzbek President Islam Karimov offered to "combine efforts to fight terrorism" and, in a pointed reference to Russia, said that his country is "not obliged to coordinate foreign policy with anyone." U.S. media are reporting that the Pentagon is indeed moving forces to Uzbekistan. The country's exact participation in the anti-terrorist campaign is unclear. Uzbekistan denied having agreed to let the United States use its bases on the Afghan border, but local observers report that several planes with U.S. military personnel already landed in Tashkent. Uzbekistan has a number of incentives to cooperate with the West in its anti-terrorism campaign.
Uzbekistan has its own problem with terrorism. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, operates partly out of Afghanistan and has suspected links with Osama bin Laden. In the past, IMU staged attacks on Uzbek territory and attempted to assassinate Karimov. In a possible attempt to rally Uzbek support, Bush pointedly listed the IMU as a threat in his speech on Sept. 20. The analogy is partly misleading - IMU has very different goals from those of bin Laden and al Qaeda; most regional observers agree that the IMU emerged primarily as a response to the Uzbek government's nepotism, corruption, and its crackdown on some Islamic institutions. Cooperation with the United States on fight against terrorism would allow Karimov to bolster his campaign against the IMU and other Islamic groups such as the Islamic Party of Liberation (Hizb ut Tahrir).
Participation in a U.S. led anti-terrorist campaign would also enable Uzbekistan to strengthen its ties with the West and further distance itself from Moscow. Karimov's foreign policy has shifted several times between Moscow and the West but overall, Uzbekistan has moved closer to Europe and the United States than Russia in recent years. The country dropped out of the CIS Collective Security Treaty and joined a rival regional grouping, the pro-Western GUUAM (Georgia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) alliance in 1999. Uzbekistan seeks alliances wherever it can secure financial help and military assistance in its fight against domestic militant groups. Washington is likely to extend all forms of support to Uzbekistan in exchange for the use of its bases; hence the planned military campaign is likely to shift Uzbekistan's foreign policy even closer to the West.
TAJIKISTAN
Tajikistan is the poorest of all former Soviet Republics. It depends almost entirely on the Russian military (6,000-10,000 troops) and border guards (15,000-20,000 troops) to guarantee its stability against fighter incursions and refugee waves from neighboring Afghanistan. Unlike Uzbekistan, Tajikistan is also bound to Russia by the CIS Collective Security Treaty. It has the little leverage vis-à-vis Russia and is likely to take its instructions on participation in the U.S. anti-terrorist campaign from Moscow. Even though Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov said that Tajikistan was ready to cooperate with the United States, Prime Minister Okil Okilov added that the government will "obligatorily consult with Moscow first."
Perhaps in response to Russia's warnings against NATO operations in Central Asia, Tajikistan further distanced itself from Washington on Sept. 16. The Tajik Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that reports of planned U.S. military strikes staged from Tajikistan are "totally without foundation." Somewhat surprisingly, U.S. media reported on Sept. 19 that U.S. forces are moving to Tajikistan after all. These reports were further denied by the Tajik authorities, who said on Sept. 21 that they have "no information on any negotiations held between our countries [Tajikistan and the United States]."
If Tajikistan indeed relented on U.S. bases in its territory, the information would likely never be made public, in part because the cooperation could jeopardize the stability of the country's government. The current administration contains a strong radical Islamic faction, a vestige of 1992-1997 civil war in which the United Tajik Opposition fought the ex-communist authorities of Tajikistan.
Bosnia Extradites Minister Wanted on War Crime Charges -- Sefer Halilovic, a cabinet minister in Bosnia's Muslim-Croat Federation government, has surrendered to the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. Halilovic, a former Yugoslav Army officer-turned Bosnian general, served as the Chief of Staff of the Bosnian Muslim army during the 1991-1995 war. He has been indicted for murder in connection with the 1993 massacre of Croat civilians in the village of Grabovica. Halilovic is the highest-ranking Bosnian Muslim to have surrendered to the Hague Tribunal.
NATO Extends Macedonia Missions -- Macedonia approved on Sept. 18 the deployment of a modest, 250-strong NATO mission to remain in the country even after the current Task Force Harvest (TFH) withdraws. NATO had previously said it had no intention to remain in Macedonia after the TFH collected the Albanians rebels' weapons. The alliance now says that a force will be needed to protect the civilian monitors assigned to observe the implementation of the peace accord between the Macedonian government and ethnic Albanian militants.
F-22 Gets Production Go Ahead -- Pete Aldridge, the Defense Department's acquisition chief, approved Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) for the Air Force's F-22 "Raptor" fighter aircraft on on Sept. 14. The production decision is two years behind schedule due to repeated delays in the aircraft's testing program and concerns about cost overruns. A contract for the first 10 aircraft, which could ultimately be worth roughly $2 billion, was awarded by the Air Force on Sept. 19. Current plans call for the production of 297 F-22s at a cost of $45 billion.
First Upgraded Patriot Missiles to be Delivered -- The first 16 upgraded Patriot PAC-3 missiles are to delivered this week, according to the Army. The PAC-3 system is a theater missile defense (TMD) system specifically designed to defend ground targets against short- and medium- range ballistic missile attack. The delivery comes three years later than first scheduled, and each missile is expected to cost twice the original $2 million price tag. Earlier this year the first of the updated fire units, without missiles, was delivered to the Army. A decision on whether to go to full production of the PAC-3 system could come in early 2003. The Army plans call for purchase of 2,200 upgraded missiles, but currently is budgeted for only 1,130, due to delays in cost increased in the $10 billion program.
Quotation of the Week -- "Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated.," President George W. Bush in his address to a joint session of Congress, September 20, 2001.
This Week on America's Defense Monitor: "The Thinning Threat"
Over the past ten years, the enemies of the United States have become poorer, weaker, and more isolated. With America's growing military advantage, and its eagerness to demonstrate its destructive power anywhere and anytime, today it is America's potential enemies who feel threatened.
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