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| August 23, 2001 |
Running Out of Space
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
The Pentagon’s 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, due to Congress by Sept. 30, is expected to reinforce the momentum already propelling the U.S. military’s increasing use of space.
But the United States is not alone in the final frontier. According to the U.S. Space Command’s Satellite Catalogue Status, 33 countries plus international organizations (e.g., NATO, European Space Agency) and companies have 2,675 satellites in orbit. And the field is getting more crowded every day.
An independent count by an aerospace consulting firm that appeared in the August 2001 issue of Aerospace America estimates that a little more than 5,000 satellites have been launched over the years, but that, as of Jan. 1, 2001, only some 582 are still operating. Of these, 270 are in low Earth orbit (LEO); 42 are in medium earth orbit (MEO); 265 are in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO); and 5 are in deep space trajectories. Another 16 satellites were launched in the first half of 2001.
Then there is space debris large enough to be tracked - estimated by Space Command at 6,248 objects at all orbital altitudes.
This multitude of objects calls out for the proverbial traffic cop. At least, that’s the opinion of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in its just issued report, “Addressing Challenges in the New Millennium.” Interestingly, the report does not call for an overarching single international space control authority. Rather, it suggests that an amalgamation of improved space treaties, operational agreements, and “rules of the road” would be able to handle “space traffic management.”
Will this suggestion fly? Not very easily, given the trajectory of the current administration.
First, the Institute’s report talks of treaties, which, when it comes to using space, the Bush administration seems intent on avoiding. Yet, administration officials constantly tell Congress and the public that the United States, as the foremost user of space, is also the most vulnerable to destruction or interruptions in the availability of satellites. It thus would seem reasonable to push for treaties providing for transparent and verifiable peaceful development of space.
Second, the report specifically suggests that the catalogue of objects in space needs to be improved. Looking back to the total number of satellites in orbit and adding in debris gives an idea of he magnitude of the problem. Yet, when it comes to missile defense, some are proposing resurrecting from the first Bush administration the “Brilliant Pebbles” concept of placing 1,000 autonomous kinetic energy interceptors in space to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles headed for the United States. Should this concept be pursued, not only would there be another 1,000 objects in space, but there would inevitably be more space debris created by a testing program to verify that a Brilliant Pebbles system could work. In this regard, the Institute’s call for developing “consistent...[space] industry standards for debris mitigation” might suggest rethinking the whole idea of using kinetic energy as the basis of a missile defense system, such as the land-based one currently being tested.
And while rethinking kinetic energy applications, it might also be useful to rethink the whole idea of national missile defense itself.
Attempts Made to Control Conflict Diamonds
Anna Franklin, Research Assistant and Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
Wars from Sierra Leone to Congo are being financed with diamonds, causing millions of civilian casualties and untold suffering. Experts estimate that 6.5 million people have fled their homes because of fighting over control of diamond mining areas, and approximately 3.7 million people have died as a result of these wars. International organizations and U.S. legislators finally have seen enough damage wrought by the conflict diamond trade that they are taking measures to stem the flow of conflict diamonds.
Legislation has been introduced in Congress that would require a series of background checks on exported diamonds to ensure that illegally obtained diamonds are not used to finance wars. The Clean Diamonds Trade Act, HR 2722, was introduced on Aug. 2, 2001 by Reps. Tony Hall (D-Ohio), Frank Wolf (R-Virg.), Amo Houghton (R-N.Y.) and Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) and has 35 co-sponsors to date. The companion Senate bill, S 1084, was introduced June 21, 2001 by Sens. Russell Feingold (D-Wisc.), Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) and Mike DeWine (R-Ohio). The Clean Diamond Trade Act states that diamonds may not be imported into the United States unless the exporting country has implemented an export and import system for rough diamonds consistent with UN General Assembly Resolution 55/56 (2000) or a future international agreement. The act enjoys the support of the World Diamond Council and the Jewelers of America, as well as the Campaign to Eliminate Conflict Diamonds – a coalition of more than 100 human rights, religious, humanitarian, peace, and development groups committed to ending the trade in conflict diamonds and supporting human rights in diamond-producing countries in Africa.
The act prohibits "the importation of diamonds from any country that has not put in place a regimen of controls on diamonds designed to eliminate conflict diamonds from international commerce," according to the Campaign to Eliminate Conflict Diamonds. The regimen is the "Kimberley process," named for the city in South Africa where talks were initiated last year, and includes diamond producing, cutting, polishing, and importing countries, as well as representatives from the diamond industry. This group is working to establish a framework by which the trade in diamonds can be regulated, preventing conflict diamonds from entering the legitimate diamond market.
Implementation of the act will be overseen by a presidential commission, which will include human rights organizations. Violators will be subject to civil and criminal penalties, and proceeds from seized contraband will be sent to the USAID War Victims Fund. The president will make an annual report to Congress on the system's effectiveness, and the General Accounting Office will analyze and report on the act's implementation and effectiveness within three years of the bill's enactment. The act allows the president to permit a waiver of six months if countries "are making good faith efforts to put the international control system in place."
The bill is expected to move through the House and Senate this fall. Action on conflict diamonds is particularly relevant in the United States as the United States is the world's number one importer of diamonds, accounting for 65 percent of the world total. But meaningful action to eliminate conflict diamonds will not happen if only the United States institutes controls. Conflict diamond producing countries and all countries involved in the diamond trade must take steps to reform diamond trading.
The Kimberly diamond controls are currently being negotiated, and are expected to be finalized and presented to the General Assembly by December 2001, according to the Campaign to Eliminate Conflict Diamonds. But some participants are resisting any type of regulation, as they fear it might cut into their diamond profits. Others believe the Kimberly process must be clear in its commitment to eliminate the untold human suffering caused by the trade in conflict diamonds. "To effectively curtail the illicit trade in conflict diamonds, the international process must be strong, transparent and independently monitored," said Adotei Akwei, Africa Advocacy Director at Amnesty International.
The Clean Diamonds Act will not hurt the legitimate purchasers and buyers of diamonds and diamond jewelry. But it will directly affect those parties who use diamonds to wage war, commit human rights abuses, and terrorize populations. The Clean Diamonds Act is only one in a series of important steps to control the legal trade of diamonds and diamond jewelry. Without such controls, these precious and beautiful stones will be used to purchase weapons that will prolong wars that inflict suffering and death on millions of people around the world.
For more information see "Diamonds are Forever," Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, Oct. 12, 2000.
Air Force General to be Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff -- President George W. Bush is expected to announce that Air Force Gen. Richard B. Myers will be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Myers, a former head of the Air Force's Space Command, is currently vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Myers would be the first non-Army chairman in a decade and the first Air Force general in almost two decades. The current chairman, Gen. Henry Shelton, will step down Sept. 30. Analysts believe Gen. Myers appointment symbolizes the Bush administration's commitment to missile defense, because of Myers background with Space Command and familiarity with missile defense technology.
NATO Launches Macedonia Mission in Full -- Troops from 11 NATO nations began landing in Skopje, Macedonia on Aug. 21, on a 30-day mission designed to collect weapons from ethnic Albanian rebels. The Macedonian government requested NATO's aid after signing a peace agreement with the rebels, granting more rights to the Albanian minority in exchange for cessation of hostilities and disarmament. It is unclear what the lightly-armed NATO troops would do if the rebels refuse to turn over weapons or if the Macedonian government reneges on its pledges.
U.S. officials knew of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda-- Documents obtained under the Freedom of Information act by the National Security Archive, a private group, reveal that top officials in Washington rejected appeals to help stop the slaughter of Tutsis by Hutus in Rwanda. Proposals to jam a Hutu-controlled radio station that was inciting the slaughter and to beef up the existing UN presence in Rwanda met with opposition at the highest levels. The failure of U.S. intervention the previous year in Somalia apparently influenced the decision not to act. Both France and Belgium have conducted investigations and issued reports on the failure to halt the genocide; the United States, so far, has not.
Key Pentagon Planning Document Names Missile Defense Top Military Priority -- The first priority of U.S. armed forces it to prepare for defeating attacks by ballistic missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction, said Paul Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defense. Wolfowitz was paraphrasing from the latest draft of the Defense Planning Guidance, an internal Pentagon document used by the defense secretary to communicate his force and budget priorities to the military services. The Defense Planning Guidance also calls on the U.S. military "to be able to conduct space operations."
Quotation of the Week -- "He says he wants the military to stop saying they can fight two wars on two fronts simultaneously. But he has opened more fronts in Washington than any defense secretary in memory," Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Wash), speaking of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Time Magazine, Aug. 27, 2001.
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