The Center for Defense Information
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| June 28, 2001 |
| June 28, 2001 |
Revamping Defense -- The Missile Defense Shuffle
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
In budget documents release June 27, the Bush Administration provided a broad outline of how it intends to pursue its missile defense program -- including scenarios that would force the abrogation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The current missile defense architecture was structured to clearly delineate between two capabilities: theater (non-strategic) defenses against short and medium range ballistic missiles and national (strategic) defenses against intercontinental range missiles.
Theater defenses were further subdivided into "lower tier" and "upper tier" systems. Lower tier systems -- the Army's Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3), the Navy's Area system, and the U.S.-German-Italian tripartite Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) are designed to protect deployed forces, ships, and installations by destroying incoming warheads in their terminal phase within the earth's atmosphere. "Upper tier" systems -- the Army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Navy's Theater Wide -- are designed to destroy incoming warheads (and possibly the carrier missile itself before warheads are released) in mid-course outside or at very high altitudes that fall within the earth's atmosphere.
Now the Pentagon wants to restructure the entire program into three sections: boost phase (approximately the first three minutes of flight after initial ignition of the enemy missile's engine), mid-course, and terminal. Boost phase defenses would include the Navy's Theater Wide system, mounted on ships deployed forward near the coasts of a potential threat, the Air Force's Airborne Laser (ABL) mounted in one of a planned seven modified Boeing 747s, and eventually a space-based laser.
Mid-course interception would fall to the THAAD and Navy Theater Wide, augmented once again (eventually) by space-based lasers. Terminal phase would be handled by the same three systems as before, augmented again by lasers in space.
Another policy shift is in responsibility for the various programs. The Army will take over the (PAC-3) and MEADS from the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) while the Navy will become responsible for the Navy Area program. PAC-3 and the Navy system are the "most mature" of all the systems while the highly mobile MEADS, designed to provide 360 degree protection for troops in the field, is to employ the PAC-3 missile.
Conversely, BMDO will take over the Airborne Laser and the Space Based Laser from the Air Force, as well as the very critical Space Based InfraRed Satellite (SBIRS) constellation of warning and tracking satellites. These changes effectively freeze the Air Force out of missile defense development.
In terms of money, the budget documents submitted June 27 add $3 billion to missile defense programs without providing much detail. PAC-3 and MEADS together garner $857 million. Navy Area gets $396 million, while BMDO gets an additional $2.29 billion, including $277 million for research on a space-based kinetic energy boost-phase defense system.
What the change in program categories accomplishes is a further blurring of the distinction between theater and national missile defense program developments with a focus on capabilities rather than missions. Now, instead of testing and deploying a system clearly designed for theater defense (THAAD, Navy Theater, and even the ABL), the administration can declare it intends to test, using a ship or an airplane, a mid-course or boost phase system as part of a national missile defense.
Under such a declaration, the administration would be breaking the ABM treaty once the system is tested on its platform. (If, on the other hand, the interceptor system were not mounted on a mobile platform, testing the interceptor even against an intercontinental range "enemy" missile would not violate the ABM treaty.) Moreover, announced plans to test the ABL aboard an aircraft in 2003 and to deploy five interceptors in Alaska by 2004 were not altered. Either of these actions would break current treaty provisions.
What does it mean? Less accountability, less information, and more opportunities to break the "cornerstone of arms control," the ABM Treaty.
New DoD Budget: Long on Dollars, Short on Details
Christopher Hellman, Senior Analyst, chellman@cdi.org
This week the Pentagon submitted to Congress its fiscal year 2002 "budget amendment" which is intended to replace the "placeholder" budget released by the Defense Department as part of the Administration's March budget request. Unlike the usual annual budget requests, however, the amended budget was not accompanied by the expected detailed supporting materials.
The new budget includes $18.4 billion in additional Pentagon spending for fiscal year 2002, on top of the $14.2 billion increase over fiscal year 2001 spending which was included in the March budget. All told, the Administration is seeking $32.6 billion in new Pentagon spending, 10.5% above this year's level. With the new funds, Pentagon spending now accounts for over half (50.5%) of all discretionary spending -- those funds that the Administration must request and Congress must act on each year.
The budget includes $82.3 billion for personnel ($6.9 billion above current levels) to fund a 4.6% pay raise, increased health benefits and higher housing allowances. The Operations and Maintenance budget (which is most closely associated with force readiness) grows by $17.8 billion to $125.7 billion, while the research and development budget, at $ 47.4 billion, represents a $6.4 funding boost.
Only the procurement budget, which goes mainly towards the purchase of weapons, did not increase, dropping from $62.1 billion to $61.6 billion. While this represents a reduction of only $500 million (0.8%), there is no way that Congress will accept such levels, and will likely increase the procurement accounts by substantial amounts.
One area which received significant additional funding was missile defense. In all, the Pentagon plans to spend $8.3 billion on missile defense, an increase of $3 billion (57%). The materials released by DoD do not, however, give the breakdown in funding between national missile defense (NMD) and the various theater missile defense programs. CDI estimates that total NMD will likely exceed $3 billion.
The new budget includes a proposal to begin the retirement of the Air Force's fleet of 50 MX "Peacekeeper" nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which would be eliminated by the START II treaty. This will require congressional authority, however, since Congress has, for the past several years, included language in the annual defense authorization legislation blocking the Defense Department from reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenals below START I levels until START II is fully enacted.
The Administration is also seeking to retire 33 of its 93 B-1 bombers, which would be removed from three of the Air Force's five bases that currently house the B-1 fleet. According to Under Secretary of Defense Dov Zakheim, the move would save $165 million, which would be used to upgrade the remaining 60 B-1s. Some analysts believe, however, that the plan will help build the case for the purchase of additional B-2 bombers. Further, despite Pentagon assurances to the contrary, Members of Congress whose states are home to the three bases losing B-1s (Georgia, Idaho and Kansas) believe that this is the first step in DoD's efforts to close those facilities.
Which is not to say that DoD has given up on additional base closures. The new budget refers to the Efficient Facilities I nitiative, (EFI), which the Pentagon says will "achieve a 24 percent reduction in DoD facilities." It would seem that given the current friction that exists between Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and congressional leaders, the Pentagon is willing to try a bit of misdirection rather than waive the red flag of "base closures" under Congress' nose.
Milosevic Handed Over to the U.N. -- In a surprising development, Yugoslav government officials handed former president Slobodan Milosevic over to the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The move came only hours after Yugoslavia's Constitutional Court ruled the extradition illegal and ordered the government to stop efforts to send Milosevic to The Hague. Milosevic has been indicted by the tribunal for his role in the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts. The new Yugoslav government which ousted Milosevic last year has, after initial resistance, agreed to turn him over in part to secure much needed financial aid from the United States and other donor countries. Washington made its assistance to Yugoslavia conditional on the handover of Milosevic the war crimes tribunal.
Boeing, Lockheed Martin JSF Variants Expanding Capabilities -- Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin claimed historic firsts this week in the race to determine who will build the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). The demonstration aircraft of both teams are currently testing their respective designs Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing (STOVL) capabilities. On June 24, Boeing's aircraft became the first to transit in mid-air from normal flight to hover. The same day Lockheed Martin's test aircraft became the first to take off vertically, hover and land vertically.
U.S. Troops in Macedonia Melee -- U.S. peacekeeping troops became the target of rioting crowds in Macedonia after stepping, for the first time, in the middle of the four-month old ethnic conflict in that country. On Tuesday, U.S. peacekeepers escorted Albanian militants from Aracinovo, a village besieged by Macedonian government troops bent on destroying the rebel force. The action was a part of a pre-agreed cease-fire deal but about 5,000 Macedonian Slavs took to the streets to protest what they called NATO intervention on the side of the Albanian militants. They blocked highways to prevent U.S. troops from returning to their bases and briefly occupied the country's Parliament building. One U.S. diplomat was slightly hurt after being accidentally shot by a Macedonian security guard and many non-essential U.S. embassy staff were evacuated. The conflict continues, with fighting reported in the north of the country, the stronghold of Macedonia's Albanian minority.
Russia Test Fires an Intercontinental Missile -- The Russian military test fired a SS-19 ballistic missile from a base in Baikonur in Kazakhstan on Thursday. The test came only days after President Vladimir Putin threatened to re-arm Russia's missiles, including the SS-19, with multiple warheads if the United States deploys a missile defense shield. The SS-19, which is currently slated for retirement, is an intercontinental missile capable of carrying up to six nuclear warheads. Russia is believed to have about 160 of them.
Quotation of the Week -- "The mystifying aspect of [President] Bush's push for a Cold War budget without a cold war is that by all accounts [Defense Secretary] Rumsfeld is sensibly poised to scrap the Pentagon's crazy "requirement" that U.S. forces be ready to fight two major regional wars simultaneously. Call me a simpleton, but if we're planning to fight fewer wars at once, why do we need so much more money to do it?" syndicated columnist Matthew Miller, The L.A. Times, June 26, 2001.
This Week on America's Defense Monitor: "The Human Cost of America's Arms Sales"
Come face to face with people who have been ravaged by the sale of U.S. weapons to non-democratic regimes around the world. Three case studies are explored: American arms sales to the governments of Turkey, Colombia and Indonesia. What has the impact been on the human rights of citizens whose governments have relied on U.S. weapons, rather than genuine political reform, to remain in power?
Airs in Washington, DC on Sunday, July 1 at 10:30 a.m, on Channel 32.
Airs in NYC on Saturday, July 6 at 7:00 a.m. on Channel 13.
Visit our web site for transcripts, CDI resources, and related links.
Regular Price: $39 each
INTERNET PRICE: $29
Order at 800-CDI-3334, or on the web.
OPEN FORUM on Nuclear Weapons Issues
Women in International Security (WIIS) and the Back From the Brink Campaign invite you to attend a particularly timely forum on Missile Defense, De-alerting and the Nuclear Threat.
The forum and reception is open to the public and will be held at the Carnegie Institute--1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC, near the Dupont Circle metro -- on July 18th from 5:30 to 7:30 PM.
The attached flyer provides you with the bios of our distinguished panel of speakers: Chair, Janne Nolan, Director of the Century Foundation; Bruce Blair, President of Center for Defense Information; Lisbeth Gronlund, Senior Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists and Elizabeth Turpen, Legislative Aide to Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM).
RSVP acceptances only to bradm@backfromthebrink.net by Monday, July 16, 2001.