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| January 18, 2001 |
| January 18, 2001 |
Reflections on the Clinton Presidency: The Arms Trade
Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
During the 1992 presidential campaign, then-Governor Bill Clinton faced criticism for his lack of military service and so-called "draft-dodging" during the Vietnam War. At the time Clinton pledged his commitment to a strong military and support for the defense industry. Nine years later, Clinton has done more than prove he was no "dove" and has severely overcompensated for his lack of military experience. In fact, the Clinton administration became patrons of the defense establishment. Nowhere is this more apparent than on conventional arms trade issues.
On the Arms Trade
The Clinton years marked the unmitigated dominance of the United States in the arms export market. The U.S. is the world's number one arms exporter in arms deals to both the developed and developing world. The dollar value of U.S. arms sales has been in the billions of dollars since the end of the Gulf War, and the percentage of the U.S. share of the total arms market is rising as well. For the foreseeable future, the United States will remain unchallenged in its control of the arms market. Not only has the Clinton administration approved an enormous number of arms licenses, it has supported major reforms making it even easier for the both the government and private industry to export U.S. weapons. In 1995 the Clinton Administration added domestic economic considerations to the list of criteria for approving weapons exports. At the same time, the U.S. administration has opposed efforts to create a "Code of Conduct" governing countries eligible to receive U.S. weapons based on criteria such as human rights and democracy. Only a congressional mandate pushed the administration to begin negotiating a multilateral agreement on norms and principles for international arms transfers.
On Defense Export Reform
Although the U.S. share of the arms market remains unchallenged, the Clinton administration has been eager to enhance the ability of the United States to do business abroad. In May 2000, President Clinton approved seventeen proposals concerning U.S. arms export policy as part of the Defense Trade Security Initiative (DTSI), the first significant change in U.S. arms export policy since the end of the Cold War. DTSI, which applies to the United States' closest allies -- NATO countries, Australia, and Japan -- will streamline the export licensing process and reduce the time necessary for industry to obtain permission to export U.S. weaponry abroad. Licenses for entire weapons systems will be granted under the new system, removing the need to reapply for licenses for extra components. Licenses will be valid for eight years instead of the current four years. Licenses for NATO efforts including those under the Defense Capabilities Initiative (DCI) will be given expedited reviews as well. The proposals are "intended to expedite the export licensing process to improve industrial competitiveness."
On Landmines
Early in Clinton's first term, the administration in general, and even the President in particular, were leaders in the fight against anti-personnel landmines. But after several high-profile anti-landmines speeches and statements, the Clinton administration did an abrupt about-face, bowing to pressure from military commanders and withdrawing its support for a global ban on anti-personnel landmines. Today, not only does the United States remain outside the community of nations dedicated to the prohibition of the use of landmines, the United States continues to research and develop weapon systems that would be banned under the Ottawa Landmines Treaty. The U.S. commitment of joining the Ottawa Treaty in 2006 seems increasingly more unlikely, as the United States remains dedicated to using landmines in Korea and in any other situation where they are seen as militarily "necessary."
On Small Arms
The United States has become actively engaged in the small arms issue even though this issue has been on the international agenda for only the past five years. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright made several important policy speeches on small arms and proposed limiting the trade of small arms to regions of conflict in Africa. However, none of these policies have been incorporated into law or statute. The administration has focused on ways to reduce the illicit trade in small arms, such as regulating brokering activities. However, when negotiating international agreements on small arms controls, the U.S. government has been heavily influenced by the National Rifle Association, making the State Department unwilling to link civilian possession of small arms with international efforts to control the proliferation of small arms.
On Child Soldiers
For six years, the Clinton administration opposed an international standard on the use of children in combat that would raise the age for participation, conscription, and recruitment in armed conflict from 15 to 18. The U.S. position came out of the U.S. desire to protect its use and recruitment of 17 year olds in the U.S. armed forces. As the negotiations on the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on Children and Armed Conflict reached a critical stage, the United States agreed to support such a treaty if recruitment ages were raised to 16 or higher. The U.S. signed the resulting treaty in July 2000, and it now awaits Senate ratification. Although the U.S. is not bound by law to comply with the Treaty provisions until ratification is complete, the Clinton administration has not upheld their commitment to the spirit of the Treaty and has not put any measures in place to prevent under 18s from being sent into combat.
Reflecting upon the last eight years, the missed opportunities to implement lasting changes to U.S. conventional arms trade issues are clear. The end of the Cold War (and Gulf War as well) left the United States the world's only hegemon. As such, many nations looked to the United States for leadership on solutions to the global challenges facing the world today, including intra-state conflict, the deprivation of human rights, economic inequality, etc. By promoting solutions that benefitted the military-industrial complex, the United States failed to act in defense of those too small and weak to defend themselves. Let us hope that the next administration will act before it's too late.
Whose Beat?
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Washington, DC, High Noon, January 20, 2001.
The cover of the New Yorker Magazine (January 22 issue) has three panels depicting the swearing-in ceremony. In the first George W. Bush has said (or not said) something that has caused disbelief or shock among all within earshot. In the middle panel Dick Cheney whispers something to Mr. Bush who, in the third panel, says something that brings smiles to all.
A bit crude, perhaps, but correct at least in this point: on January 20 the nation will have a new president and a nascent administration holding the reins of power -- including military power. And while we are moving further and further into the post-Cold War world, it seems that we are also moving forward into the past. Indeed, the fact that no new term for this era has yet been devised speaks volumes about the psychological underpinnings of current and future policies and programs, many of which were devised during the Cold War as counters for anticipated Cold War enemies and equipment.
In fact, in its waning days, the Clinton Administration and the 106th Congress reinforced this persistent Cold War psychology. Congress approved and the President signed the Labor-Health and Human Services Appropriations Act for 2001 which contained $353 million in "bridging funds" to keep F-22 advanced procurement on track for the 10 aircraft to be bought this year. The bridging money was needed because the F-22, conceived during the Cold War to meet a fifth generation Soviet fighter (never developed), had not met all the criteria laid down by Congress before it could transition from engineering and manufacturing development to low rate initial production.
In early January, in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington, outgoing Secretary of Defense William Cohen announced that President Clinton's Fiscal Year 2002 budget (which actually will go to Congress after he leaves office) would double the increase in the Pentagon's projected Future Year Defense Plan from $112 billion to $227 billion. Mr. Cohen's justification was that the nation could afford it -- an obvious reference to the $236 billion "surplus" for FY2000, the projected $256 billion "surplus" for FY2001, and the cumulative $5 trillion "surplus" over the next ten years (FY2002-FY2011).
Interestingly, the $115 billion increase is more than Vice-President Gore called for in his campaign ($100 billion over nine years) and two and a half times what Mr. Bush said he would add ($45 billion). However, Secretary of Defense-designate Donald Rumsfeld, in his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services committee, said that Mr. Bush's $45 billion figure applied to "some particular things he wanted to see were funded" but that he was not suggesting "that that was the totality of what he had in mind." On the other hand, it is far less than the $40, $60, and even $100 billion per year advocated by think tanks and some in the Pentagon.
And the Pentagon is not missing a beat. Reports are rife that the military has a $7 billion FY2001 supplemental funding request already prepared to present to the new Administration -- $2.9 billion for the Army, $2.3 billion for the Navy, and $1.8 billion for the Air Force.
The only concession to fiscal discipline at the Pentagon is Mr. Rumsfeld's mantra during the confirmation hearing that he would review Pentagon programs once in office. In this regard, Mr. Rumsfeld has floated the idea of asking Congress to relent on the September due date for the Quadrennial Defense Review to allow a more thorough study of national security requirements and how the military supports the broader strategy. This is not only rational but reasonable. The down side is there are so many programs entering the final stages of development or starting production that any long reviews will make it more difficult to cancel projects. And without canceling programs, real money can be saved only through personnel cuts, something that goes against recent statements by the service secretaries and service chiefs.
Will the new administration take up the Pentagon's beat or truly begin marching to a different drummer? Stay tuned.
Senator Urges Delay on F-22 Production Decision -- Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) has written to Defense Secretary William Cohen urging the Pentagon to delay any decision on beginning production of the F-22 fighter until the incoming Bush Administration has had an opportunity to assess the program and to allow additional testing and evaluation of the aircraft. As Chairman of Subcommittee on AirLand Forces, which authorizes the F-22 program, Senator Santorum's recommendations carry significant weight, and he has been backed by Senator John Warner (R-VA), the Armed Services Committee Chairman.
European Parliament Votes for DU Moratorium -- The European Parliament voted on Wednesday to impose a one-year moratorium on the use of depleted uranium ammunition. The resolution, approved in a 339 to 202 vote, calls on all European military forces in NATO to ban the use of armor-piercing shells and other depleted uranium weaponry until they were shown to be safe. It is not binding and even though Britain possesses some DU ammunition, a vast majority of DU bullets were fired by U.S. troops. A number of European nations suspect that contact with spent DU ammunition may have caused cancer among their peacekeeping troops in Bosnia and in Kosovo.
Montenegro Moves a Step Closer to Secession -- Yugoslavia will not use force to stop Montenegro from seceding from the Yugoslav Federation, Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica said on Wednesday. Kostunica admitted that he made no progress in his first direct negotiations with Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic and added that "the talks confirmed two radically opposed stands which cannot be overcome...Belgrade will do nothing to prevent those who will rule Montenegro in their eventual secession." As a goodwill gesture, Yugoslavia also decided to disband the notorious Seventh Battalion of the military police in Montenegro. The battalion, Montenegrin officials allege, was created to destabilize Montenegro and justify an intervention by Yugoslav forces. Montenegro has distanced itself from Serbia, the only other remaining partner in the Yugoslav Federation, during the 13 year-rule of former President Slobodan Milosevic. In recent years, Montenegro adopted its own currency and visa policy, and it clashed with the Belgrade government over a number of economic and foreign policy issues.
Britain Boosts JSF Participation -- The British government decided on Wednesday to commit $2 billion to the Joint Strike Fighter program. Britain wants to buy potentially as many as 150 of the new aircraft to replace its ageing Harrier vertical/short take-off/landing (V/STOL) jets. Britain, the most important foreign partner in the JSF program, has already paid about $200 million of the research & development costs. The JSF, however, is in danger with the Bush administration vowing to examine the need to buy three types of next generation aircraft - the F/A-18 E/F, the F-22, and the JSF. The V/STOL version of the JSF is particularly vulnerable -- the technology has not been proven yet and the U.S. buyer of the version, the Marine Corps, recently announced it is willing to compromise and buy the naval version instead. Abandoning JSF or its V/STOL variant would leave Britain with no replacement for its Harrier jets.
Children Won't be Tried by Sierra Leone Tribunal -- UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has announced that no children should be prosecuted by the Sierra Leone War Crimes tribunal. In response, the UN Security Council has decided that juvenile offenders will be sent to the proposed Truth and Reconciliation Commission to account for their actions as combatants. UNICEF estimates that approximately 5,000 children have been used as soldiers during Sierra Leone's near-decade long civil war.
Quotation of the Week -- "I seriously question an increase in the Pentagon budget in the face of the department's recent inspector general's report. How can we seriously consider a $50 billion increase in the Defense Department budget when DoD's own auditors...say the department cannot account for $2.3 trillion transactions in one year alone." Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) during Senate confirmation hearings of Defense Secretary nominee Donald Rumsfeld, January 11, 2001.
This Week on America's Defense Monitor: "Is China a Military Threat?"
The United States put China back into the strategic war plan last year, after a hiatus of two decades. Now the two countries view each other as potential nuclear adversaries. How did we arrive at this juncture and are we headed toward a nuclear show-down?
Airs in Washington, DC on Sunday, January 21th at 10:30 a.m. on Channel 32.
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