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| July 13, 2000 |
| July 13, 2000 |
Of Space and Spacy Things
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
The latest test of the national missile defense (NMD) system was well oiled. Since the January 18 test, when the interceptor's exoatmospheric kill vehicle (EKV) missed the target, everything had been dissected if not trisected, especially the EKV's infrared sensor's cooling system. According to the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), a simple blockage in a pipe carrying coolant to the sensors caused the January failure. This, as every high school science student knows, is a problem not of rocket science but of fluid mechanics.
Furthermore, the summer test had already been delayed once, from June 26, to "tweak" a possible wiring malfunction. Ironically, BMDO attributes the July 7 test debacle chiefly to the failure of an electronic component to signal the EKV to separate from the booster. Again, this is not rocket science but simple electronics. General Ronald Kadish said that this eventuality wasn't even on his "worry list" while Representative Curt Weldon (R-PA), an ardent NMD supporter, pointed out during a post-test interview that rocket separation was something solved by Dr. Werner von Braun over 40 years ago.
Even had the EKV separated as programmed and its sensors worked perfectly, test results would have been skewed because the single Mylar balloon decoy carried by the target missile failed to inflate properly.
Another space-related program that reportedly has run into a roadblock is the Discoverer II. This program envisioned a constellation of 24 satellites with overlapping fields of vision able to provide continuous, all weather earth surveillance to spot mobile land targets in critical areas. This, of course, is what the Air Force's Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) does now. But the E-8C aircraft (a modified Boeing 707) on which the 150 mile range system is housed must fly in friendly-controlled air space to avoid being shot down. A space-based system would not have these range limitations, would be able to "see" areas that would be hidden from airborne sensors by intervening terrain features, and are not subject to enemy action that would cost lives.
What seems to be the stumbling block for Discoverer II, according to the trade publication "Defense News," is money -- an estimated $25 billion according to the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. (This is in sharp contrast to a 1999 Air Force estimate that each Discoverer II satellites would cost less than $100 million each with a 20-year life-cycle cost of a large operational system coming in under $10 billion.) The competition for limited funds between Discoverer II and the $10 billion Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) that will be used to detect and track ballistic missiles had already contributed to a 1998 Pentagon decision to portray Discoverer II as a demonstration project of two satellites. But this has had the effect of draining congressional support; the House declined to appropriate any money for the program for Fiscal Year 2001 while the Senate's bill provides the Pentagon's request for $130 million. This will be a major issue in the deliberations of the House-Senate conference committee.
But just as NMD survived on minimal funding in the early years of the Clinton Administration and is now set to absorb billions more, Discover II may only fade for awhile before reappearing either as a rejuvenated program or be incorporated into a successor effort. In fact there already is a secret Future Imagery Architecture spy satellite program underway which could incorporate elements or lessons learned from Discoverer II. Either way, space based radar research will continue as the Pentagon envisions moving intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions into space as part of its drive to achieve "full spectrum dominance."
Visit these web sites for more information about the Discoverer II program or the SBIRS program.
UN Imposes Diamond Ban on Sierra Leone
By Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
In a 14-0 vote, with one abstention, the UN Security Council last week decided to impose an 18 month ban on diamonds from Sierra Leone. The Security Council Resolution (1306) instituted an immediate global embargo on diamond exports from Sierra Leone, called for an exploratory hearing to assess the role of diamonds in the conflict in Sierra Lone, and requested a panel of experts to examine the link between diamond exports and weapon purchased for use in Sierra Leone's civil war.
All members of the Security Council agreed to the resolution except Mali, the current President of the Security Council. Mali abstained in protest to the inclusion of Liberia as a conduit for the flow of illegal diamonds. Mali and some other countries were hesitant to implicate Liberia without substantial evidence as Liberia's cooperation has been crucial in securing the release of rebel-held hostages in Sierra Leone. Liberian President Charles Taylor maintains a close relationship with Foday Sankoh, the leader of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), the Sierra Leone opposition group. The RUF has waged a war with the government of Sierra Leone for nearly a decade, causing the deaths of thousands of innocent civilians.
The Resolution was sponsored by the United Kingdom. British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock said the resolution was intended to get at the roots of the war. " There's a lot of work still to do, and this is only the beginning of a number of steps we need to take on Sierra Leone." The United States supported the Resolution with one reservation. While supporting the ban on diamonds as a necessary step, the United States was concerned with placing an end-date to the sanctions without tying them to a clear policy change. "The United States strongly believes that sanctions, to have meaning and force, must be tied to a change in the behavior that prompts imposition of sanctions in the first place -- not an arbitrary date on the calendar," said U.S. Deputy Ambassador Nancy Soderberg.
Faced with an incredibly rich and well-equipped opposition force, the government of Sierra Leone was extremely pleased with the Security Council's decision. "At last, the Security Council has come to realize that the war in Sierra Leone is cast in gemstones," said Sierra Leone Ambassador Ibrahim Kamara. "The root of the conflict is and remains, diamonds, diamonds, diamonds," he said.
Sierra Leone Minister of Mineral Resources, Mohammed Searray-Deen, echoed the UN Ambassador's sentiment, saying that he believes that Sierra Leone will have a real chance at peace once the rebel diamond trade is halted. "It is one of the best ways to help us minimize the smuggling of diamonds, which are being mined and sold by the RUF to purchase arms and ammunition. Once they (the rebels) are unable to get more arms, the fighting will stop."
The effects of the illegal diamond trade has been profound in Sierra Leone. Global Witness, a London based environmental organization, said that the RUF, the rebel group in Sierra Leone, had earned approximately $200 million a year between 1991-1999 in illicit diamond sales and estimates that this year alone the RUF has earned $70 million. Experts say that part of the problem in tracing the diamonds flows is that some diamonds are falsely identified as Liberian in origin or transshipped through Liberia to hide their Sierra Leonean origin. The diamonds then end up in legitimate markets in Belgium, Israel, and Ukraine, and the RUF then uses the profits of their diamond sales to purchase weapons on the black market. Recent BBC reports reveal that diamonds financed the purchases of rocket launchers, rocket-propelled grenades, and AK-47 ammunition. Most experts agree that cutting off profits from diamonds will strain the capacity of the RUF to wage war.
The diamond industry also reacted favorably to the Security Council resolution. The Diamond Office in Antwerp, the world's largest diamond trading center (it handles 80 percent of the world trade in rough diamonds and 50 percent of the trade in polished gems, worth $20 billion annually), announced that it would no longer import Sierra Leonean diamonds without a certificate of origin as specified in the resolution.
The diamond embargo in Sierra Leone is not the first time the United Nations has imposed measures aimed at reducing the ability of a group to wage war. The United Nations has previously imposed such sanctions on Angola -- preventing the opposition group UNITA from selling diamonds, oil, and other resources on the world market to finance its war effort. The challenge for the United Nations is now to enforce these embargoes and address the root causes of war. The international community has a chance for progress in Sierra Leone, if it holds firm to the position that profits cannot stand in the way of sustained peace. Should the embargo fail, the community of nations will again -- quite rightly -- stand accused of allowing crimes against humanity to be perpetrated.
The Changing Face of the Chechnya War
By Tomas Valasek, Senior Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org
Things seem to be going well for Russian forces in Chechnya. Most of the republic is in Moscow's hands, the artillery assaults against Chechen towns and villages were all but suspended, and the military feels so confident it sent nearly half its troops back home. Russian generals declared victory on at least half a dozen occasions.
But the war may be far from over. In fact, it appears that the Russians may have won a battle but lost the war.
What the Russian invasion accomplished is turning a war for independence into jihad, a religious war. There was not one but two conflicts in Chechnya. The one that the world heard the most about pitted the Russian military against virtually everybody in Chechnya, civilians notwithstanding. But among the troops fighting on the Chechen side, another conflict raged: a war over the republic's identity, its religion, and its ties to radical Islamic states. On the one side were people like the Kremlin's recently appointed representative in Chechnya, former mufti (religious leader) Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov fought for Chechnya's independence in 1994-96 but opposed the harsh form of Islam propagated by some clerics and fighters in Chechnya. On the other side were commanders, many of who started as pro-independence, essentially non-religious figures but increasingly turned to radical Islam for money, troops, and the moral boost needed to sustain their fight.
Russian actions have made the relatively moderate personalities politically irrelevant. Chechnya's president, Aslan Maskhadov, is indicted by Russian courts and is being ignored by his own commanders. Others have chosen to cooperate with Russian troops, which will likely discredit them in the eyes of ordinary Chechens. It is possible that Kadyrov may yet succeed in convincing the war-weary population of Chechnya to cooperate with Moscow. The Chechens have suffered unspeakably in this decade, and most are ready for the war to end. More likely, however, Kadyrov's efforts will be frustrated by the remaining fighters.
The rhetoric of the most influential commanders reflects the changed nature of the war from a fight for independence to a religious struggle. Writing about the 1994-96 war, a former Financial Times correspondent in Chechnya and one of the foremost experts on the region, Anatol Lieven, noted that "the Chechen struggle of the 1990s began as overwhelmingly a national or nationalist one." Religion, always a factor in the Muslim Chechnya, served to support the drive for independence rather than as an end to itself.
But religious radicalism began creeping in even before the current war. Its simple, clear message resonated among hordes of displaced fighters with no economic opportunities in a country where very little was rebuilt after the first war. Religion launched the second war in Chechnya after three years. The August 1999 invasion of Dagestan by fighters from Chechnya (most of who, contrary to press reports, were Dagestanis trained in Chechnya rather than Chechens themselves) precipitated the Russian intervention in Dagestan and later in Chechnya proper.
As Russian tanks and jets forced Chechen fighters into increasing isolation in the republic's mountainous south, the relative importance of religion and religious organizations grew. They provided hope as the odds of success grew longer and longer. Islamic schools outside Chechnya provided moral support and, apparently, troops and weapons as well. As even the Chechen fighters admit, dozens of foreigners have fought and died in their ranks. "During the fighting, three foreign Mujahideen, Halil of Turkey, Zakariyah of Turkey and Al Muthana of the Arabian Peninsula, protected the retreat of their brothers and fought off the hordes of Russian troops," wrote Qoqaz.net, a Chechnya support site, on July 10. "Halil was the first to be martyred after being killed by a mine; Zakariyah was also martyred."
The rising influence of Islam was dramatically demonstrated on June 6 when the first of the Chechen suicide bombers struck a Russian army barracks. Suicide bombers a staple of the fighting in Lebanon and Palestine - were unheard of in the 1994-96 Chechnya war. Since June 6, more such attacks have followed, including a coordinated strike on July 3 involving at least three separate bombers. Qoqaz.net reports that at least 500 volunteered for martyrdom on these suicide missions.
The guerilla warfare to which the remaining fighters resorted requires few supplies. New recruits from abroad are making up losses among the fighters. The ever-shrinking Russian presence in Chechnya is unlikely to stop the flow of people and arms. Nor will the fighters be stopped by the prospect remote at best - of Russo-Chechen accommodation. Their goals have shifted from gaining independence for Chechnya to establishing an Islamic state on the territory of not only Chechnya but also neighboring Dagestan a goal unacceptable to Russia, not to mention the Dagestan government.
The war, proclaimed to be over weeks ago, is thus likely to continue at a lower intensity until the Russian forces are worn down. The war in Chechnya has awakened forces that will neither compromise nor shrink from utter self-destruction.
Israel Calls Off Radar Sale to China -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak announced during this week's Mideast summit that the planned quarter-billion dollar sale of an advanced airborne warning system to China had been canceled. The decision was made against "the background of American objections" to the proposed transfer due to the increased tensions the sale may cause with Taiwan and that the radar could be used to track U.S. aircraft in times of conflict. Israel has not ruled out going forward with the sale in the future.
Navy Needs Cruise Missile Defense -- A report released this week by the General Accounting Office (GAO)says the U.S. Navy needs to improve its anti-cruise missile systems. The threat posed to ships by cruise missiles is growing as they become cheaper, increasingly sophisticated, and more prevalent. "Unless the Navy can improve the self-defense capabilities of its surface ships, these ships will be increasingly vulnerable to cruise missile threats when the operate in coastal waters," said the report, which is entitled, "Defense Acquisitions: Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense" (NSIAD-00-149).
U.S. Soldier Accidentally Kills Albanian Child -- An American soldier accidentally shot and killed a six-year old ethnic Albanian boy Sunday, according to the Army. The soldier was part of a group repairing a schoolyard fence near the village of Cerkes Sadovina. He accidentally fired his weapon, hitting the boy in the chest with at least one round. The boy was taken to the U.S. Army hospital at Camp Bondsteel, but later died. The Army is promising that the incident will be "investigated thoroughly."
Tunisian President Calls for End to Iraqi Embargo -- Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has called for a lifting of economic sanctions against Iraq, saying that all the arab nations except one now favor an end to the embargo. Sanctions don't work, said President Ben Ali. "You are hurting the people, not the regime, and Saddam Hussein can keep blaming their inhuman plight on the U.S." According to the President, the lone arab nation still supporting the embargo is Kuwait.
Strike Could Effect Navy Flight Training -- A labor dispute between flight simulator instructors and their employer Lockheed Martin could delay the Navy's flight testing program if it continues. According to the Pensacola News Journal, instructors under contract with Lockheed, which trains Navy pilots and navigators at Pensacola and Whiting Field Naval Air Stations, went on strike Monday over pay, work schedules and pension issues. Union spokespersons say that they are not striking against the Navy, but that if the service tries to bring in their own instructors it would violate the Navy's neutral stance in the strike and could result in legal action by the union.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Colombia in Crisis"
Guerrilla warfare, an expanding drug trade, and a history of government abuses have pushed Colombia to the brink of collapse. This program examines Colombia's deepening crisis, and America's controversial rescue plan.
Airs in Washington, DC on Sunday, July 16 at 10:30 a.m. on Channel 32.
Airs in NYC on Friday, July 21 on Channel 25 at 7:30 p.m., and on Saturday,
July 22 at 7:00 a.m. on Channel 13.
Visit our web site for transcripts, CDI resources, RealVideo, and related links.
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