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| June 29, 2000 |
| June 29, 2000 |
IRA Arms Inspected
Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
Northern Ireland's annual marching season is the time of traditional parading by the Orange Order, "an exclusively Protestant fraternity," commemorating old victories over Catholic armies. For years, the marching has usually been met by protests and violence by the Catholics in the North. But this year, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) has at long last undertaken a concrete confidence building measure that may very well move Northern Ireland from perpetual conflict to lasting cooperation.
In what was seen as a real boost to the Good Friday Peace Process, the IRA announced that "after a four month boycott it was reestablishing contact with the international commission overseeing the decommissioning of IRA weapons and that many of its arms dumps had been examined by international arms monitors."
After months of delay and negotiations, the IRA arms bunkers were inspected by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari former Secretary-General of South Africa's African National Congress, Cyril Ramaphosa. The two arms monitors reported that "they had seen a 'substantial' quantity of safely stored IRA weapons" and that the weapons would not be able to be used without detection. The two monitors announced they would continue to inspect the dumps on a regular basis.
In response to the inspections, President Clinton said, "The fact that the IRA has reestablished contact with the commission is equally significant, representing a tangible step toward fulfillment of its undertaking to put arms beyond use in the context of full implementation of the Good Friday Accord."
Critics maintain that while examining the weapons was certainly an important and symbolic first step, the foray into the arms bunkers does not represent a full commitment to decommissioning -- "destroying the weapons or putting them beyond use." Political leaders have urged the IRA to move beyond symbolic gestures and begin the decommissioning process. But the IRA and its supporters have been hesitant to reveal and destroy quantities of their arms.
May 22, 2000 had been the original deadline for the decommissioning of all guerilla weapons as specified in the 1998 Good Friday Peace Accord. When the Good Friday accord was first negotiated, all sides agreed that disarming the various factions was essential for a peaceful resolution of the "Troubles." However, details about how and when disarmament would take place could not be agreed. Therefore the final text of the Good Friday accord says only that "all participants in the talks will use any influence they may have to achieve the decommissioning of all paramilitary arms within two years." When the deadline passed without the decommissioning process occurring, many felt that the entire peace process was threatened.
Experts believe decommissioning is more than just a confidence-building measure. They see the quantity of IRA arms as a real threat to peace, even though the IRA and its supporters have maintained a three year cease fire. The number of IRA arms is significant. According to a Reuters report quoting military sources, "the IRA is believed to own 40 rocket-propelled grenade launchers, 650 AK-47 automatic rifles, hundreds of handguns and 32 machine guns, as well as at least two tons of plastic explosive, tons of ammunition and grenades and at least one SAM-7 shoulder-launched surface-to-air missile."
The IRA's agreement to proceed with the arms inspections was a promising step in fulfilling the obligations of the Good Friday Accord. But it is only one step in what has proven to be a delicate negotiation of power-sharing and compromise. As the situation remains fraught with peril, all sides should take this development positively and press to move the Good Friday process forward without any further delay.
For more information, see "Northern Ireland Faces Disarmament Challenge," Weekly Defense Monitor, March 18, 1999, and "Disarmament Process Plagues Northern Ireland Peace Agreement," Weekly Defense Monitor, July 1, 1999.
Two Wars Half a World Apart?
Oscar Lurie, Research Associate, olurie@cdi.org
The size and power of America's military is largely premised on three assumptions:
The history of the second half of the 20th century does not support the first assumption. While the U.S. and its allies were intensely preoccupied in Korea (1950-'53), Vietnam (1965-'72), and Iraq (1990-'91), neither North Korea nor any other adversary rattled swords against its neighbors.
The second assumption is no longer valid either. The U.S. military now has a much greater capacity to detect and watch the movement of military forces and accurately project military power to influence the course of emerging situations. This ability to respond is being enhanced by the creation of the USAF's Air Expeditionary Force and the Army's program to develop "medium weight" Brigade Combat Teams.
Nor has history justified the third assumption. In the Gulf War over 30 countries joined the coalition headed by the United States. Twenty fielded military contingents and at least four contributed from $4 to $16 billion to offset U.S. costs. In Kosovo more than 19 countries participated in or supported the air campaign.
If the two-war premise is false, the huge American force structure "needed" to satisfy it is questionable. Smaller forces, with the present (and certainly with the planned) capability to track enemy movement and concentrate firepower, could adequately protect our interests anywhere on the globe.
Fighting Rages in Chechnya -- Hundreds of Russian troops have been fighting a large group of Chechens near Serzhen-Yurt, south of Grozny, for at least four consecutive days. Casualty estimates on both sides vary widely. The firefight broke out shortly after Russian Presidential Representative to South Russia Colonel General Viktor Kazantsev proclaimed military operations in the province over. Moscow did score a political success; three influential Chechen commanders laid down their weapons this week and urged their followers to cooperate with Akhmad Kadyrov, a former Chechen religious leader recently appointed by the Kremlin to administer the region.
Navy: U.S. Needs 75 Attack Subs -- According to senior military and civilian leaders, he U.S. Navy needs 75 attack submarines in order to meet its full range of missions. In Congressional testimony this week, the Navy's top submarine commanders upped the 68 boats recommended by the Joint Chiefs of Staff earlier this year, and the 50 boats recommended by the Quadrennial Defense Review. According to Rear Admiral Albert Konetzni, commander of U.S. Pacific submarine forces, the 68 figure does not include support for carrier battle groups, or engagement with allies. According to Admiral Konetzni, 68 boats "would be truly the minimum."
Serbs in Kosovo Rally Against the UN -- About 500 Serbs gathered outside a UN police compound in Strpce, Kosovo, on Tuesday to protest continued anti-Serbian violence. The protesters accused the UN of failing to protect the Serbian minority from attacks by radicals among the Albanian majority in Kosovo. The riots were prompted by the UN refusal to lend a helicopter to aid in search for a missing Serbian shepherd, who was found dead two days later, and is believed by military and UN police investigators to have been murdered.
U.S. Offers to Lease 100 Tanks to Turkey -- The United States has offered to lease 100 M1A1 tanks to the Turkish military, according to government officials in both countries. The U.S. offer comes after Turkey's decision in April to suspend a co-production program for 1,000 tanks, estimated to be worth $7 billion. The value of the lease is estimated at $70 million for 100 tanks, although the total number of tanks leased by the U.S. could reach as many as 200. The agreement is viewed as giving General Dynamics, the manufacturer of the M1, an advantage over possible international competitors in bidding for the final production contract.
Latest Bombing Exercises on Vieques End -- On Wednesday the U.S. Navy ended three days of training exercises on the Vieques bombing range in Puerto Rico. Ships and aircraft of the USS George Washington carrier battle group underwent combat training prior to deployment to the Mediterranean and the Arabian Gulf. The exercises, which used non-explosive weapons, sparked renewed protests by local residents and political leaders, many of whom forced their way on to the bombing range The Navy reports that 183 people were arrested for trespassing during the course of the exercises.
Congressional GOP Leaders Form National Security Advisory Panel -- Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) and Speaker of the House Denis Hastert (R-IL) have formed a group of former defense and foreign policy officials to serve as advisors on national security issues. Chaired by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the group also includes former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultze, former Secretaries of Defense Frank Carlucci, Dick Cheney, James Schlesinger and Caspar Weinberger, Former Director of Central Intelligence James Woolsey, former National Security Advisors Richard Allen and Brent Scowcroft, and General Colin Powell, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Star Wars: New Hope or
Phantom Menace?"
For 40 years, American scientists have tried -- and failed -- to build a system to protect the U.S. from long-range missile attack. The recent successful test of a missile interceptor breathed new life into Ronald Reagan's dream of a national shield against enemy missiles. But will building "Star Wars" make us any safer?
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