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| May 25, 2000 |
| May 25, 2000 |
Results of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Judging by the press release from the United Nations, the 2000 Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT) Review Conference was a great success. In form it undoubtedly was, as the 155 nations present (of the 187 signatory states) were able to achieve consensus on the final communique -- but only after intense negotiations involving the U.S. and Iraq that caused the Conference to go 24 hours beyond its original deadline of May 19. Yet it was the first time in 15 years that a consensus was achieved.
The nub of the dispute was America's insistence that the final document contain references to Iraq's refusal to allow inspection of its declared nuclear weapons facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as prescribed by Security Council Resolution 687. Iraq initially insisted that Resolution 687 and the NPT were separate issues. However, in the interests of consensus -- while not budging from this point -- it finally agreed to allow the Conference report to note the IAEA's April 24, 2000 statement that "[a]lthough the Agency had been able recently to carry out an inspection in Iraq, it could not...at present provide assurances that Iraq was in compliance with its obligations under relevant Security Council resolutions."
(IAEA inspections, along with those of the U.N. Special Commission designed to uncover and destroy Iraq's stockpiles and capability to produce nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, were halted just prior to Operation Desert Fox, the four day U.S. bombing campaign in late December 1998.)
While procedural norms were resolutely observed, the Review Conference was short on substance on the Treaty's three main objectives: nuclear cooperation, nuclear disarmament, and nuclear non-proliferation.
On nuclear disarmament, the five avowed nuclear weapons states -- Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States -- jointly renewed in an "unequivocal undertaking" their previous commitment to reduce and eventually eliminate their nuclear weapons. But as in the past -- most notably in 1995 -- no timetable was set either to measure progress or to achieve the final destruction of all nuclear weapons. Such an omission essentially renders the "undertaking" meaningless.
Similarly, no progress was made on renouncing or modifying the U.S. and Russian declarations that nuclear weapons are the "cornerstone" of each nation's military security. Neither country backed away from its current posture of "launch on warning" nor did either suggest abandoning the "option" of first use of nuclear weapons. Russia's January 2000 declaration that it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in war if other means of "resolving the crisis have failed," together with the U.S. position that America might use nuclear weapons to retaliate for a chemical or biological weapons attack, were unchanged coming out of the Review Conference.
With regard to non-proliferation, the Review Conference called on India, Pakistan, and Israel -- all of which have nuclear weapons -- to join the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states. Cuba, the other non-signatory state, was also encouraged to become a party to the NPT.
Finally, as U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan noted in his remarks at the Conference's opening, nuclear cooperation has lagged because "much of the established multilateral disarmament machinery has started to rust...a problem due not to the machinery itself but to the apparent lack of political will to use it." The CTBT has yet to enter into force (the U.S. Senate refused to ratify it last October); negotiations on fissile material cut-off are incomplete; deep cuts in existing stockpiles remain suspended because START II Treaty ratification by the Russian Duma had conditions attached that were not part of the U.S. Senate ratification deliberations -- and these differences in ratification language are holding up START III negotiations that would reduce deployed strategic weapons even further. Nuclear cooperation also is retarded by the apparent intent of the U.S. to field a national missile defense system even if discussions with Russia fail to achieve agreement on modifying the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
As a number of delegates to the Review Conference pointed out, the 1995 Conference extended the NPT indefinitely, not the right of the five major powers to retain their stockpiles of nuclear weapons. Thus Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, and especially the United States, are obliged under the Treaty to end the production of nuclear weapons and their components (tritium gas and plutonium "pits"), dismantle existing weapons and their means of delivery, and to assist non-weapons states in the peaceful development and use of atomic energy.
The Review Conference's greatest achievement may be that none of the 187 States parties withdrew from the NPT despite fears that some might be prepared to opt out in the absence of any meaningful progress toward nuclear disarmament. The "unequivocal undertaking" may have been enough to keep everyone within the Treaty's fold in 2000. Absent genuine progress to implement that undertaking, even this language may not be enough at the next Review Conference in 2005.
Child Soldier Conference Held in Asia
By Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
Representatives from non-governmental organizations, governments, and international organizations met in Kathmandu, Nepal last week to participate in the Asia-Pacific Conference on the Use of Child Soldiers. Approximately 150 participants from 20 countries took part in the conference, the first time the issue dealt specifically with child soldiers in the Asian context.
The conference was organized and sponsored by the International Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). The Coalition has organized three previous regional conferences, one on Africa in Maputo, Mozambique, one on Latin America in Montevideo, Uruguay, and one on Europe in Berlin, Germany (For more information about these conferences, please see "Africa Reacts to Child Soldiers Problem," Weekly Defense Monitor, April 29, 1999, "Latin American Conference Addresses Child Soldiers," Weekly Defense Monitor, July 15, 1999, and "Europeans Act on Child Soldiers Issue," Weekly Defense Monitor, October 28, 1999).
Asia ranks second to Africa in the continent with the most child soldiers. Of the 300,000 children estimated to participate in armed conflict in over 30 countries around the world, 150,000 can be found in Africa and an additional 75,000 in Asia. Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Cambodia, and Sri Lanka have the worst records of using children as soldiers in Asia. Myanmar is the worst offender in the region, with approximately 50,000 child soldiers fighting with government and rebel groups in the country's civil war. The case of the twin child warriors, Luther and Johnny Htoo, recently grabbed headlines for their part in the Karen ethnic group's fight against the government of Myanmar.
Children have also been used in the recent ongoing conflicts in East Timor, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Rebel groups, as well as government forces, use children. In Sri Lanka, both the government forces and the forces of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have used children in their ranks, even though both pledged to cease this practice. In the Philippines, Abu Sayyaf, the Muslim rebel group currently holding Western hostages, is also reported to use child soldiers.
Almost all countries in Asia currently recruit children under 18 into their armed forces. Many children are seduced to join by monetary incentives, others out of a feeling of honor and duty to either a religious, ethnic, or political group engaged in civil war. According to the Coalition, children often begin their work with these militaries as sentries or porters but are soon thrust into combat positions. Girls also faced the added trauma of being used as sex slaves by military commanders.
At the conclusion of the conference, the participants issued the Kathmandu Declaration on the Use of Children as Soldiers. The Declaration includes thirty operational sections including one urging all countries to sign and ratify the new treaty banning the use of child soldiers and the ILO Convention banning the worst forms of child labor, of which child soldiering is an instance. The Declaration also calls upon states inside and outside the region to reduce the availability of small arms -- the weapons that facilitate the use of child soldiers and assistance for the reintegration and rehabilitation of child combatants. The participating governments called upon other South Asian regional fora to take up the issue of child soldiers. The government of Thailand said it would consider introducing the issue at the ASEAN forum in July.
This week the United Nations General Assembly adopted a treaty banning the use of children under 18 as soldiers (For more information on the child soldiers ban, see "International Community Reaches Agreement on Child Soldiers," Weekly Defense Monitor, January 27, 2000). The treaty will be open for signature at the Beijing plus 5 meeting beginning June 5th. Children's rights activists and the Coalition are urging governments to sign the treaty in September at the General Assembly's Millennium Assembly. President Clinton ought to sign this treaty in September to make a strong statement of U.S. support for the treaty and the protection of children. Once signed, the Senate should ratify the treaty and encourage its implementation and enforcement as quickly as possible. The commitment of the international community to halt the practice of using children as soldiers is a moral obligation that should be discharged without delay.
Russia to Attack Afghanistan? -- Several key Russian officials threatened air strikes against Taliban bases in Afghanistan. Kremlin spokesman on Chechnya, Sergei Yastrzhembskii, claimed earlier this week that Russia has obtained evidence that the Taliban is providing logistical support to Chechen fighters. Yastrzhembskii, Defense Minister Igor Sergeev and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov have since vowed to launch air strikes against the Taliban "if the threat emerged."
Kosovo Landmine Casualties Reported -- The United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNIMIK) has reported that 100 people died and 387 were injured in landmine explosions in Kosovo between June 1999 and April 2000. Most landmine casualties in Kosovo occurred after the completion of the war last year.
Russia, NATO Cozying Up -- NATO and Russia have agreed to open a NATO information center in Moscow, the alliance's Secretary General, Lord Robertson, announced. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov also attended a NATO ministerial meeting in Florence, Italy on Wednesday -- the first such high-level meeting since the Kosovo war. However, the meeting was marred by NATO protests against the recent visit by Yugoslav Defense Minister Dragoljub Ojdanic to Moscow. Ojdanic has been indicted by the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia as a war criminal. The Russian Foreign Minister has apologized for the visit, saying the visit was a result of "an internal, technical hitch between agencies and ministries."
Senate Opts for Single JSF Winner -- The Senate Appropriations Committee this week approved language in the Pentagon's annual spending bill that will keep the Defense Department from abandoning its current "winner-take-all" plan for selection of the prime contractor for the Joint Strike Fighter. The Pentagon has been considering some sort of joint awarding of the contract to Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the two contractors competing for the JSF program. Meanwhile, a Pentagon team asked to look at how various options of splitting up the JSF award might effect the U.S. aircraft industrial base has informed Defense Secretary Cohen that splitting the contract before selecting a prime contractor would be too difficult. Instead, the group recommends, select a prime contractor, and then qualify both contractors to do future work. The contractor not selected would not, in this case, be considered the loser, but a "non-winner."
UAV to Demonstrate Attack Capability -- The U.S. Air Force is planning to conduct tests of the Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to determine of the aircraft has the capability to drop bombs. The plan calls for the Predator to be equipped with two bombs, hung beneath each wing, of a type and size yet to be determined. In order to accommodate the weight of the bombs, most of the Predator's radar and surveillance equipment will have to be removed. The Air Force plans to conduct the demonstration this summer.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Dark Cloud: Our Strange Love
Affair with the Bomb"
Nukes as portable infantry weapons. Nukes for digging tunnels. Nuclear decontamination with a whisk broom. Secret government films of the 1940's, '50s and '60s form the backdrop for this darkly entertaining exploration of America's fascination with the Bomb. At times humorous, strange and disturbing, these films reveal how the culture of nuclear weapons shaped American society during the Cold War, and how the advocates of nuclear culture sought to make atomic weapons a part of everyday life.
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