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Volume 4, Issue #3

January 20, 2000

Six Seconds That Didn't Shake the World
The latest National Missile Defense system test misses.
U.S. Plans Huge Colombian Aid Package
Last week, President Clinton proposed a two-year aid package to Colombia totaling $1.28 billion. The majority of the money will go for military hardware and training.
CDI's "Briefing Room"
News updates on security issues from around the world.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "In the Shadow of Landmines"

Six Seconds That Didn't Shake the World
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org

Twenty eight minutes: that's the time the Pentagon believes is available to detect a missile launch, track and project the course of the missile, and launch a U.S. missile that has a chance of intercepting and destroying the incoming missile or its warhead.

On January 18, for the second time in four months, that was the scenario played out high above the Pacific Ocean. This is how it was choreographed:

A few minutes after 9:00 pm, a target lifted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
Ground based radars and an existing array of satellites tracked the target and projected its trajectory.
Some 20 minutes after the target was fired, the NMD prototype missile lifted off from Kwajalein Atoll to intercept the target and destroy it in a "hit-to-kill" encounter.
Everything worked for almost eight minutes. Approximately six seconds before the anticipated impact, both heat-seeking infrared detectors critical to the interceptor's final maneuvers failed -- in effect blinding the NMD missile and causing it to miss.

A detailed analysis of exactly what caused the failure of both infrared detectors may not be available for some days or weeks. However, some things are known:

Another test is scheduled for April or May.
The Clinton Administration is scheduled to decide in June on deploying this NMD system by 2005. It will do so even though the full test results of the April/May test will probably not be in and on the basis of less than 25 percent of the scheduled tests.
By June only three full flight tests will have occurred. In the October 1999 test the NMD missile hit the target, but this now seems to have been a lucky hit. The missile drifted off course, the on-board sensors initially detected only the highly visible decoy balloon (which fortuitously was still near the target warhead), and the interceptor had been preprogrammed to find the target.
NMD will cost much more than the $12.5 billion often quoted in the press. Just between Fiscal Years 1993-1998, this Administration has spent $8.12 billion. For FY1999 out to FY2005, an additional $24.65 billion is either committed already or is planned. But this total ($33.77 billion) assuredly understates the final cost. In fact, the Senate Budget Committee says the cost of the more ambitious system envisioned by the Republican leadership in Congress could run as much as $128 billion by 2030.

The idea driving the current NMD development is that the U.S. must be able to deter a rogue nation from launching or, if necessary, knock down a handful of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles fired at the United States. Considering the countries normally named in this scenario -- Iran, North Korea, and eventually Iraq, perhaps 28 minutes for NMD is a reasonable window -- if the new U.S. satellite systems are ever launched, other nations allow us to upgrade critical ground based radars, the actual NMD launch vehicle comes on line, and all the components that are part of the NMD system are successfully integrated and work as intended.

And "work" must be for the entire 28 minutes. In the real world, anything short of that -- even six seconds -- would shake not only the U.S. but the whole world with devastating consequences.

U.S. Plans Huge Colombian Aid Package
By Rachel Stohl, Senior Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org

The White House announced a two-year proposal last week that would provide $1.28 billion in emergency aid to Colombia. The aid package is intended to combat narco-trafficking and the related guerilla war that have plagued Colombia for over 35 years and caused thousands of deaths. The package follows an alternative plan introduced by Congressional Republicans in 1999. The majority of the funding provides Colombia with money to update its military through hardware purchases and training.

Clinton's announcement comes several months after the high profile visit of Colombian President Andres Pastrana. During his visit, Pastrana requested help in funding his "Plan Colombia," a program totaling $7.5 billion that needs $3.5 million in foreign aid. "Plan Colombia" is "designed to suppress drug trafficking as well as shore up the country's ailing economy."

The United States has a great interest in ensuring the stability and prosperity of Colombia. According to Barry McCaffrey, Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, "eighty percent of the cocaine entering the United States either originates or passes through Colombia." Although, as Pastrana himself has argued, Colombia's manufacturing of drugs and related crime and violence are a domestic problem, the United Sates also has a responsibility to curtail demand for illicit drugs. Further, the instability caused by over three decades of war puts military and economic pressures on the United States and other countries in the hemisphere.

To deal with these pressures, the President proposes sending 30 UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters and 33-1N Huey utility helicopters to the Colombian military. The plan gives $144 million to the Pentagon to help train anti-narcotics battalions. According to news reports, the battalions "would begin operations in southern Colombia and improve the tracking of narcotics dealers with new radios and other equipment, as well as improving ground-based radar."

The training of the Colombian military immediately raises red flags for human rights workers and many Members of Congress. Legislation sponsored by Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) cut off training of the Colombian military two years ago because of evidence of systematic human rights abuses. Now, the United States must carefully screen each individual for involvement in past human rights abuses. Critics of the plan worry that the increase in training will cause the screening process to become less effective and perhaps allow ineligible troops to participate -- perhaps causing additional human rights abuses.

Clinton's plan does provide for assistance beyond military support. The proposal calls for $145 million to be allocated to alternative economic development, such as crop substitution programs for opium poppies and aid for local farmers. In addition, $93 million would be spent on strengthening the judicial system, with additional money aiding displaced refugees.

Clinton's package has immense budgetary implications. Colombia was already slated to receive $300 million in FY'99 and FY'00 (making it the third largest recipient of U.S. aid behind Israel and Egypt). The additional funds would bring Colombia's two year total to nearly $1.6 billion. The request for the additional $1.3 billion is in two parts: $954 million in an FY '00 emergency supplemental and a $318 million increase to the original FY'01 amount programmed by the White House.

Fighting between Colombian forces and Colombia's largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) resumed the same day as Clinton's announcement. The two sides had been observing a twenty-day cease-fire agreement, but the lull in fighting ended when FARC attacked three police headquarters, part of a mayor's office, and a bank. Three policeman and one civilian were killed by the rebels and 20 rebels were killed in counterattacks by the government, according to Colombian reports.

Eliminating drug kingpins and reducing the threat of guerilla forces are important to the long-term stability of Colombia and the reduction in the amount of drugs entering the United States. A senior Colombian official has observed that "drug production feeds all the violence in Colombia, creates the economic problems, hurts the people, and creates problems of human rights." But providing increased military aid is not the answer. By pushing the Colombian military into purchasing additional military hardware, the priorities for combating crime and drug violence are skewed towards bolstering the Colombian military.

Clinton's proposal is not the best use of resources to support Colombia. By relying primarily on a military build-up, the proposal undermines democracy-building, infrastructure support, and the strengthening of civil society. The United States can ill afford to become involved in a guerilla style war in a far away country. Putting more resources into lessening the demand for illicit drugs in the United States and concurrently strengthening Colombian society -- particularly the infrastructure and civilian participation in the political process -- seems a better, more enduring choice.

CDI's "Briefing Room"

200 Children Kidnaped in Sierra Leone -- 200 child soldiers that had been turned over to Children Associated with War (CAW), a Roman Catholic aid organization for rehabilitation, were kidnaped by rebels belonging to the Revolutionary United Front (RUF). Sources report that five CAW officials and four soldiers form the ECOMOG peacekeeping force were also taken by the RUF soldiers Child soldiers across Sierra Leone are being turned in to various aid organizations for disarmament and reintegration as part of the peace deal signed in 1999.

Congo and North Korea in Alleged Secret Uranium Deal -- According to U.S. and South African intelligence forces, North Korea is believed to be acquiring uranium for its nuclear weapons program in exchange for training of the Congolese troops of Laurent Kabila. North Korean soldiers have been seen in a mining town north of the capital, Kinshasa, the source of the uranium in the Hiroshima bomb. Sources fear that Kabila is training his soldiers for an imminent attack on neighboring Rwanda Recent reports also reveal that Kabila recently purchased Scud missiles from Iran.

U.S. Military Lacks Transformation Plan -- A new Pentagon study indicates that despite their rhetoric about the need to transform their combat capabilities to meet the challenges of the next century, the U.S. military services lack a comprehensive strategy or a blueprint on how to get there. The study, "DoD Warfighting Transformation," was conducted by the Defense Science Board. The report also notes that factors such as the emerging global strategic environment and technological developments "should stimulate new military capabilities and change DoD behavior, not because the old behavior was wrong but because it will not meet the new challenges."

Tiger No More -- Zeljko Raznatovic, aka "Arkan," leader of the Serbian "Tiger" paramilitary group, a nationalist politician, and a shadowy businessman, was buried in Yugoslav's capital of Belgrade on Thursday. Arkan was killed by unknown gunmen last Saturday in the lobby of the Belgrade Intercontinental Hotel. The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia indicted Arkan for atrocities his Tigers allegedly committed between 1991 and 1995 in Bosnia and Croatia, during the wars following the breakup of Yugoslavia.

General Missing in Chechnya -- Major General Mikhail Malofeyev, commander of Russia's northern army group, disappeared during his troops' assault on the Chechen capital of Grozny (Djohar) on January 18. The web site run by Chechen rebels claims that General Malofeyev is in their custody. Russian news agencies says that the general may have been wounded or killed when his 245th Motorized Brigade came under attack in the western part of the capital. Russian forces launched a renewed attack on Grozny (Djohar) on January 16. The Russian air force intensified bombing of the city, flying up to 200 sorties a day, while the Russian infantry and pro-Moscow Chechen militias began moving toward the center of the Chechen capital.

This week on America's Defense Monitor: "In the Shadow of Landmines"

For the first time, an American landmine survivor returns to Cambodia - one of the world's most heavily mined countries - to meet other landmine survivors, visit rehabilitation clinics, and investigate victim assistance programs. The survivor's odyssey is a gripping personal saga and a powerful look at the magnitude of the landmine crisis in Cambodia and around the world.

Airs in Washington, DC on Sunday, January 23 at 10:30 am on Channel 32.
Airs in NYC on Friday, January 28 on Channel 25 at 7:30 p.m., and on Saturday, January 29 at 7:00 a.m. on Channel 13.

This video is FREE at http://www.cdi.org/landmines
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Free distribution of the show is sponsored by the Open Society Institutes Landmines Project and The John Merck Fund.

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