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| November 4, 1999 |
| November 4, 1999 |
Preparing for Dangers
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
One of the parameters affecting the size, composition, and capabilities of our military forces -- and by extension the Pentagon's budget -- is the degree of risk to "national security interests" that nations are willing to tolerate. Like choices individuals may be forced to make in deciding whether to have an operation or to buy insurance, we as a rule turn to the uniformed military, experts on managing violence, for their best judgment as to the appropriate level of risk to assume.
For example, early last month Admiral Vernon Clarke, Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet based at Norfolk, Virginia, told a Naval Institute audience that the Navy would be hard pressed to meet the strategic objective to fight and win two nearly simultaneous major theater wars (MTW) as required by the Quadrennial Defense Review. "The second MTW is going to be real high risk. What does high risk mean? It means there's going to be a real cost to taking on that second MTW."
This sentiment was echoed last week in Senate testimony from General Hugh Shelton, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was commenting on this Spring's (April-June) readiness report just sent to Congress. Both the report, which covered the period of the Kosovo air campaign, and General Shelton were careful to stress that the military is capable of meeting the QDR requirement, but both also rated as "high" the risks associated with the second MTW. General Shelton said, "What it means is that it will take longer to respond to hostilities which, in turn, means territory lost and an increased potential for casualties."
The military's assessment of increased risk is based on the operations tempo (OPTEMPO) of recent years and reductions in end strength, which in turn means the same people must deploy more often to cover all the missions. According to Pentagon surveys, the added stress on family life and simple exhaustion are contributing to readiness problems (and increasing risk). OPTEMPO is also increasing consumption rates of spare parts and the wear and tear on equipment, so much so that the Pentagon says it has had to delay some of its expensive modernization plans. In short, the Defense Department says the entire spectrum of military readiness has been adversely affected.
What does not get addressed -- and granted it is not within the Pentagon's purview -- is the larger question of judging the increased risk the Pentagon says it faces against the increased risks to our overall society because of priorities too long delayed. Recently released statistics point to major problems. Over the period 1996-1998, Census Bureau data reveal that poverty levels in the U.S. changed only slightly considering the burgeoning economy, declining from 13.7 percent (20.5 percent among children) in 1996 to 12.7 percent (18.9 percent among children) in 1998. Poverty levels reflect other indices of risk such as those associated with poor education. The United States ranks 19th in education among the 29 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Teacher salaries in the U.S. are the lowest as a percentage of national income among all nations. Because money has not been appropriated, Head Start programs will not reach as many as 140,000 eligible youngsters.
The effects of poverty get passed through to other sectors of society such as education and health. While immigration has been a rejuvenating force in our society, over 100,000 foreigners have been invited to become American citizens if they possess the requisite skills to fill critical high technology positions because we are not educating our own people to fill these jobs. At the same time, 28 million Americans -- fully 10 percent of the population -- cannot find the United States on a world map. In health care, 44 million Americans -- including an estimated 10 million children -- lack health insurance.
Surely these are signs that the health and welfare of our society is increasingly at risk. To be sure, even eight years after the Cold War, there remain external challenges which require us to maintain a potent, well honed, and agile diplomatic and military structure. But the level of military risk we can safely tolerate ought to reflect the nature and the proximity in time and place of the external dangers the military has identified -- and therefore the size, composition, and OPTEMPO of the force. General Shelton seems to be suggesting that the Cold War paradigm has yet to be adequately revised to reflect international conditions at the end of the 20th century. If so, he is right.
Commentators have remarked that America's leaders seem to have done little to mobilize our thoughts and energies or to renew our national vision for the new millennium. Perhaps we might give ourselves a present: a re-balancing of policy and spending priorities that give due weight to the social, educational, economic, and environmental needs of our society.
Remembering the Smallest Veterans
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
November 11 is Veterans' Day. It is the day we honor those who've served our country, who've braved the horrors of war, and who've protected our nation in times of peace. The contributions of our veterans embody the American spirit -- honor, service, and freedom. Each year we salute veterans with parades and ceremonies. But there are countless veterans around the world whose sacrifices go unnoticed and are hidden from official recognition -- veterans who served as child soldiers.
Today, child soldiers are found in government forces and rebel armies around the world. Children participate in the most inhumane aspects of war, suffering debilitating physical and psychological scars. Child soldiers serve in all military positions, as porters, cooks, spies, sex slaves and front line combatants. The United Nations estimates that there are over 300,000 children under 18 participating in over 30 conflicts around the world.
The last ten years have seen the systematic use of children as soldiers due to dwindling populations from years of war, disease and poverty, and decimated resources. Further the increased reliance on small arms and light weapons as the primary instrument of war, have made using children practical as these weapons are easy for a small child to operate and repair. While the international community has begun to move forward in preventing the use of child combatants, the United States has unfortunately lagged behind international efforts to raise the minimum age for military participation to 18. The lack of U.S. support is primarily due to the U.S. wanting to preserve its policy of having 17 year olds in its armed forces.
Congress, however, is trying to align U.S. attitudes with the international consensus. For the first time, the U.S. House of Representatives will consider a resolution on child soldiers. Last week, Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA) introduced H Con. Res. 209, which enjoys broad bipartisan support and boasts over 30 original co-sponsors. Efforts are underway to collect additional co-sponsors and support for the resolution.
The Resolution condemns the use of child soldiers, urges the Administration not to oppose efforts to raise the international minimum age for military service to the age of 18, and encourages funding for the rehabilitation and reintegration of former child soldiers.
Although it recommends positive steps forward in U.S. policy on child soldiers, the resolution is non-binding. It provides a "sense of Congress" and requires no action, only suggests it. However, support for the Resolution is important in furthering a change in U.S. policy on child soldiers and pressuring the Administration to support international efforts on preventing the use of child soldiers. The original co-sponsors represent key members of the House International Relations and International Operations and Human Rights Committees and the Human Rights Caucus.
The Senate will also be considering the child soldiers issue this session. Senator Paul Wellstone, who introduced language on child soldiers in last year's Defense Department Appropriations bill, has announced that he will be introducing a companion resolution calling for "a ban on the use of child soldiers in armed conflicts around the world."
Ending the use of child soldiers requires congressional awareness and activism. The ideas put forward by Congressman Lantos are non-controversial and non-partisan. The use of child soldiers flies in the face of the American notions of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. As we honor our Veterans next week, we should also encourage Congress to protect the world's children and eliminate their use as combatants worldwide by supporting Congressman Lantos's efforts.
For a full text of H. Con. Res. 209 contact rstohl@cdi.org.
Continued Trade, Continued War
Annemarie van Berkel, Research Assistant, avberkel@cdi.org
In Angola a war has been going on for more than three decades. The warring parties fund their armies by trading natural resources, in particular diamonds and oil, for weapons and ammunition. But recently, the world's biggest diamond cartel, De Beers, announced it had placed an embargo on the purchase of Angolan diamonds.
The war started in 1974 after the Portuguese colony became independent. The chief antagonists are the Marxist Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and the anti-Marxist National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and Cuba supported the MPLA, while the United States, South Africa and China supported UNITA.
After the Cold War, the major powers pulled back from Africa, leaving many of the war machines hungry for funds to keep up their struggle. The void was soon filled by another group of actors: multinational companies interested in exploiting natural resources.
In 1992 the MPLA won elections and formed a new government. Two years later the Lusaka Protocol was signed, and for four years there was something like peace. But UNITA never fully implemented the protocol, and by December 1998 the war had resumed with each party intent on destroying the other.
UNITA's main source of funding comes from diamonds. Angolan diamonds are famous for their high quality. The rebels control two-thirds of the diamond production in the country, although several military clashes with government forces in the diamond rich Lunda Norte province have disrupted the flow of gems. Nonetheless, between 1992 and 1997, UNITA is estimated to have earned $3.7 billion through diamond sales.
The MPLA derives its revenues from oil. Offshore Angola is recognized as a world class area for oil exploration and production. The production is largely centered in Cabinda, an enclave separated from the main part of the country by a "corridor to the sea" for the Democratic Republic of Congo. This part of Angola has not been touched by the war, although it remains vulnerable. Oil accounts for 80% of total government revenues, some $4 billion in 1998. UNITA is less interested in oil because it is a commodity more difficult for it to smuggle onto world markets.
The victims of Angola's war are its citizens -- more then 600,000 dead and 3 million refugees. UNITA is seen as the main perpetrator of violence. In 1993, the United Nations Security Council attempted to limit UNITA's ability to wage war by imposing an embargo on oil and arms supplies to UNITA. But not until 1998 did the Security Council impose an embargo on the direct and indirect import of "unofficial" diamonds - those that do not carry a certificate of origin from the Angolan government.
In spite of the embargo, the UN sanctions have been completely ineffective, largely because the diamond market is complex and not transparent. The market is dominated by the South African multinational De Beers, which controls more than 70% of world diamond sales. And although De Beers recently announced it would abide by the UN embargo and not purchase unofficial Angolan diamonds, its annual reports during the 1990s clearly show the company's involvement in Angola. Many regard the company's recent announcement as a symbolic gesture, in response to a campaign started by a group of European non-governmental organizations to alert the public to De Beers' role in supporting UNITA.
The routes for smuggling diamonds are endless. Inadequate control and official corruption allow diamonds to be exported through countries such as Zambia (itself a diamond producer), the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa, to markets in Europe and Israel. No one requires verification of the source, although it is not difficult to distinguish the high quality of Angolan diamonds from those found in Zambia. In return for diamonds there is steady flow of weapons. Arms from Albania and Bulgaria reach UNITA by reversing the routes used to export gems.
On the government side, oil revenues are used to buy weapons to continue the war against UNITA rather than being invested in the Angolan people. Several American and European oil companies are hungry to exploit the country's oil resources, and in return weapons flow in from Russia, Portugal, Belarus, Brazil, Bulgaria and South Africa. In fact, Africa has become an attractive and profitable dumping ground for nations and arm manufacturers eager to get rid of weapon stocks made superfluous by the end of the Cold War or by technological developments.
As long as the diamond trade continues, so will the war. It is not African countries buying the diamonds and it is not African countries selling the arms. Nations far from the scene still play a role in many African conflicts, either by purchasing mineral resources or supplying weapons and ammunition to the warring parties. It leaves physical exhaustion of the people as the only brake on continued war.
Boeing "Finalizes" JSF Design -- Boeing representatives briefed Pentagon officials last week on their final proposed design for the Joint Strike Fighter. Any future alterations in the aircraft's design would likely only affect its weight, which currently exceeds the Marine Corps' specifications. Boeing, which is competing with Lockheed Martin for the spot of prime contractor for the program, plans to test fly its first demonstrator next spring. The Pentagon is scheduled to select the winning design in early 2001.
Military Aviation Accidents Down in 1999... -- Calling it one of the "safest years on record," the Pentagon has released its aviation accident report for Fiscal Year 1999, which ended on September 30. The "Class A" accident rate dropped to 1.58 accidents per 100,000, down from 1.64 last year. A "Class A" mishap is one which results in $1 million in damages to the aircraft or in the death or permanent disability of any member of the flight crew. 43 people were killed in aviation accidents, compared to 77 in FY'98. Property losses were $3.3 billion, $1.9 billion of which was due to damage to 3 satellites.
...While T-3 Trainer is Permanently Grounded -- The U.S. Air Force recently announced that it was replacing its enhanced flight screening program with a commercial pilot training program, and eliminating the use of the T-3A "Firefly" aircraft from the screening process. The T-3 was grounded in July, 1997 after a series of "uncommanded engine stoppages." The Air Force purchased 113 T-3s, which entered service in 1994. Three pilots were killed in T-3 accidents, one in each of its first three years of operation. For background on the T-3 program, see "Air Force's T-3 Trainer Continues to Have Problems," Weekly Defense Monitor, Volume 2, Issue #1, January 8, 1998.
Russia Tests Interceptor Missile -- Russia announced this week that it had flight tested a short-range interceptor for the anti-ballistic missile system permitted it under the 1972 ABM Treaty, which allows the United States and Russia each to deploy a single-site system. Russia's system is deployed to defend Moscow, while the U.S. designated sight is Grand Forks, ND. According to Russian military officials, the test, which is widely viewed as a symbolic warning to the United States not to proceed with the national missile defense system now under development, was the first since 1993.
Puerto Rico, Navy, Continue Sparring Over Bombing Range -- In the latest round between the U.S. Navy and Puerto Rico over the future of the Vieques bombing range, the island government issued a formal complaint with the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force that Navy live fire exercises have damaged endangered coral reefs. The task force, formed in 1998 by Presidential Order, has no legal authority to stop the bombings, but can mediate and make recommendations.
Pentagon Official Takes a Slap at Wall Street -- Undersecretary of Defense John Hamre criticized investment managers this week, questioning their preference for profitable start-up companies over more established companies in the defense sector. "I'm...disappointed that the owners of some companies have taken such a shortsighted view of the importance of defense in this country," said Hamre, saying that saying that this trend could undercut the defense industry. "Martha Stewart goes public and makes $1 billion in a day, and all she does is carve pumpkins."
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Ridding the World of Landmines"
Forty countries have ratified the Ottawa Treaty to ban antipersonnel land mines so the treaty will be law in early 1999. The United States, so far has refused to even sign the treaty, let alone make it law. Paradoxically, the U.S. reserves the right to lay mines anywhere, even as it supports mine removal and humanitarian relief for the victims of mine warfare.
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