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| October 28, 1999 |
| October 28, 1999 |
Predicting the Unpredictable
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Congress seems in a mood of triumphal unilateralism. It passed a $288.8 billion military spending bill while cutting the President's foreign operations request by $2 billion -- to $12.7 billion. It continues to demand, as a precondition for paying part of America's massive $1.6 billion arrears to the United Nations, that the U.N. implement a series of "reforms." And just last week, the Senate refused to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, sending a message to the world that, at least for now, the United States prefers military power and the implied threat of mass destruction to cooperative efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear warfare.
Having won in Kosovo by dint of superior technology, politicians seem to believe that the world can be controlled by Washington's whims and that even the advice of our closest NATO allies can be ignored. But whimsy is not policy, and in the absence of policy -- which requires foresight -- the actions of other players can quickly get beyond control of even the world's hyper-power.
Take U.N. reform. One of the chief demands of the U.S. has been a no-growth budget for the U.N. -- not even for inflation. The regular budget for core U.N. functions is about $1.25 billion per year, of which the U.S. share for 1999 is $298 million. However, America owes over $600 million in regular assessments, and unless a substantial amount (to be determined next month) of these arrears is paid by year's end, we will lose our vote in the General Assembly and have no recourse except to pay up.
In fact, over the last two years (1998-1999), the U.N. has had a no-growth budget. Since 1994, the budget has dropped 15% or some $350 million, according to Joseph Connor, the U.N. Under Secretary-General for Management. The U.N. has also met another U.S. condition: reducing its bureaucracy.
While the U.S. may have enough clout to drive bureaucratic reforms in the U.N. (some of which were needed), neither Congress nor the White House has been able to predict -- let alone dictate -- when and where peacekeeping missions must be implemented. After the 1994 U.S. debacle in Somalia, peacekeeping missions (and costs) fell as the U.S. became more cautious in agreeing to new missions. From a high of $4.0 billion and over 78,000 personnel in 1993-1994, costs and numbers fell to $907 million and 14,000 in 1998 (the U.S. share was $285 million) with projected costs in 1999 (at the start of the year) of $650 million and 12,000 peacekeepers in the field.
But because second and third world regional actors are more attuned to their neighbors than to the world's only superpower, these numbers are set to rise significantly. To rebuild Kosovo following the havoc wrought by Slobodan Milosevic's troops and police and by the air campaign, the U.N. established UNMIK, a complex undertaking to provide humanitarian relief and individual security in the short run and to rebuild and assist in sustainable development of the province over the long term. In addition to UNMIK, over thirty nations sent 50,000 troops to provide security for Kosovars of all ethnic groups.
But Kosovo is not the only place where the actions of others created conditions that forced the Security Council to act. In addition to extending the mandates (and hence the costs) of a number of existing U.N. missions such as in the Western Sahara and Central African Republic, the Security Council has approved two new peacekeeping missions in countries where bloodshed far exceeded anything in Kosovo. On October 22, the Council agreed to send 6,000 personnel to Sierra Leone to help implement the July 7 Lome Accord ending the eight year war between various rebel factions and the government.
This U.N. force, named UNAMSIL, will assist in disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of adult and child soldiers back into the society. They will be in addition to troops from the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Observer Group who are to remain to provide security for the capital city and the airport.
Half-way around the world, a 15 nation Intervention Force (INTERFET) led by Australia went into East Timor to stop the carnage after East Timorese voted for independence from Indonesia. Now, under an October 25 Security Council Resolution, that force will be replaced by a 10,500 strong international police and military organization called UNTAET -- the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor. This deployment will be similar to UNMIK and KFOR in Kosovo both in terms of its powers ("all necessary measures" to carry out its mandate) and in the scope of its activities: maintain law and order, aid in distribution of humanitarian and development assistance, support creation of democratic institutions, and establish conditions for sustainable development. Although no price tag has been put on this mission, the costs associated with rebuilding Kosovo -- estimated at $2 billion -- give some indication of the scale involved.
The U.S. has only 200 military personnel in East Timor but has 14,000 committed to KFOR and to SFOR, the NATO peacekeeping force in Bosnia. The price for maintaining these troops -- roughly estimated at $4 billion -- is in addition to the projected $650 million in current U.N. peacekeeping costs. And these costs will rise further as conflicts in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) and between Eritrea and Ethiopia run their course and the peoples of these nations require a U.N. presence to help instill confidence and to rebuild trust.
Washington cannot control the lust for power and profits that still plunge nations into wars. But time and again America squanders opportunities to prevent or mitigate conflicts by holding hostage the programs and institutions through which we could cooperatively engage the world at far less cost to ourselves than the amounts spent on reactive military intervention and post-conflict policing.
As we move into the new millennium, increased foreign assistance and refurbishing our standing in the U.N. are immediate and cost effective measures that would restore America's leadership in world affairs. Triumphalism attracts no followers, and without followers no nation -- even a hyper-power -- can lead.
Europeans Act on Child Soldiers Issue
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
When one thinks of child soldiers, images of young African children most often come to mind. But the reality is that child soldiers are used around the world, not just Africa. To focus public attention on the use of child soldiers in Europe and commit to changing policy to prevent their use, a conference on the use of child soldiers in Europe took place in Berlin, Germany from October 18-20. The three day conference was organized by the International Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers and hosted by the government of Germany. The Coalition has organized two previous regional conferences, one in Maputo, Mozambique, and the other in Montevideo, Uruguay (For more information about these two conferences, please see "Africa Reacts to Child Soldiers Problem," by Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, April 29, 1999, and "Latin American Conference Addresses Child Soldiers," by Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, July 15, 1999.
Participation in the conference was extensive, with 180 governmental and non-governmental participants representing 35 countries present. Significantly, 29 governments took part in the meeting, demonstrating an important governmental commitment to preventing the use of children as soldiers.
The conference was the impetus for the release of the report "The Use of Children as Soldiers in Europe," issued by the International Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers. The report detailed the extent of the European problem. "Thousands of children have undoubtedly taken active part in armed conflicts across the continent during the 1990's and, sadly, this phenomenon will continue unless effective preventive action is taken quickly."
The report highlighted the use of children as soldiers in European conflicts such as Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey, and Kosovo. Turkey has seen perhaps some of the most egregious use of children as soldiers. "One of the worst offenders has been the PKK -- the Kurdish Workers' Party. From 1994 it appears that the PKK started to recruit children systematically and that it even created children's regiments," the report says.
An additional problem in Europe is that so many countries continue to recruit children under 18 for the armed forces. France, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, and the United Kingdom are among those countries that recruit under 18's. However, only the United Kingdom sends under-18's into combat situations. The other countries have expressed a willingness to prevent under 18's from participating in conflict, and many have made changes in their domestic legislation to that end. However, the United Kingdom remains the primary holdout in refusing to send children into combat.
At the conclusion of the conference, the participants issued the Berlin Declaration on the Use of Children as Soldiers. While other regions of the world have pledged to prevent the recruitment and participation of children in armed conflict, the European statement "solemnly declares their commitment to establish international standards that prohibit all participation in armed conflict of persons under 18 years." The statement is much weaker than those that followed the Latin American and African conferences.
Although the United Kingdom has opposed such measures, the declaration did state that "states shall ensure that no persons under 18 years, within their armed forces, participates in armed conflict." According to those at the conference, the United Kingdom left the room when this section was deliberated so that they wouldn't have to abstain or vote against the provision.
The Declaration also called on all European governments "to take measures to ensure that children under their jurisdiction are protected against recruitment by non-state actors, to train members of all peacekeeping forces in child rights and issues relating to child soldiers such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, to implement the UN Secretary-General's minimum age limits for UN peacekeepers in all peacekeeping operations." Such actions will certainly unify the international community's position on preventing the use of children as soldiers.
In January 2000 the UN working group will meet on the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Unable to reach consensus after five years, the prospects for an agreement are slim. To that end, the Declaration also urged "all States to support and actively participate in the work of the UN working Group drafting the optional protocol on involvement of children in armed conflicts, with the aim of finalizing a strong and effective protocol in accordance with the principles of this declaration and applicable to both international and internal armed conflicts."
The Berlin conference was a welcome step in internationalizing the use of child soldiers. The international community must realize that this is not just an African or Latin American problem. Change must start with each country domestically. The European community has stood up to this challenge, and the world's children will be better protected because of it.
Waging the Peace in Kosovo
Denise Groves, Scoville Fellow, dgroves@cdi.org
NATO's peacekeeping force (KFOR) and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) nation-building experiment appears to be bumping up against a growing number of obstacles in Kosovo. After two months of violent retribution against non-Albanians, the number of Serbs and Roma in the province has dropped to levels well below that of last year. Now, the reverse ethnic cleansing has given way to a surge in organized crime and simmering political conflict among Albanians.
Despite the presence of over 45,000 peacekeeping troops and 3,000 members of an international police force, crime is flourishing in Kosovo, undermining UNMIK's goals of instituting multi-ethnic democracy, an open economy, and sustainable development. The Balkan region has long been a conduit for smuggling operations into Europe, but the relative lawlessness in Kosovo and the porous borders trouble those charged with reconstructing the region. According to a Danish policeman quoted in a recent Washington Post article, "[Kosovo] is a perfect environment for criminals [and] the level of crimes is at a totally unacceptable level."
Indeed, violent crime is rampant in Kosovo, from frequent shootings and grenade attacks to numerous cases of arson. KFOR continues to seize weapons on a daily basis, everything from ammunition and pistols to rocket launchers, more than a month after the official disarmament of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Private security firms, whose ranks are filled with former KLA soldiers or policemen, are already finding their niche in the volatile atmosphere of Kosovo. These firms generally offer their services to bars and discos, but they also provide protection for political figures such as Ibrahim Rugova. The accumulating evidence of organized crime, however, is a source of concern for the international peacekeeping forces in Kosovo. If the number of Audis and Mercedes in the poorest region of Europe aroused suspicions, then the presence of organized crime was confirmed by the arrival of heroin and cocaine into Pristina.
Human rights groups and other observers attribute some of the violence and crime to members of the former KLA, disbanded in September and converted into the Kosovo Protection Corps (KPC) shortly thereafter. Under an agreement struck between NATO, the United Nations, and KLA leadership on September 20, the purpose of the strictly apolitical Corps is to assist with reconstruction and public works projects. Critics of the plan were assured that the Corps would not become a defense force for Kosovo and that responsibility for administration and security matters would rest solely with UNMIK and KFOR. Nevertheless, the leaders of the former KLA seem to be pursuing their earlier pledge to convert the rebel army into a multi-functional organization. In late August, Agim Ceku, the military leader of the KLA, publicly vowed that after demobilization was complete, the KLA would form a political party and becom e "one part police force, one part civil administration, one part Army of Kosovo." Agim Ceku was appointed commander of the Kosovo Protection Corps as part of the September 20 agreement.
Hashim Thaqi, Ceku's colleague and leader of the political arm of the former KLA, heads the interim government that was formed at the beginning of NATO's war with Serbia. At the war's end, KLA members assumed positions of power in villages and cities throughout the province and established a number of provisional government ministries. Claiming to be the only legitimate government of Kosovo, Thaqi's organization is now launching ominous political campaigns against opposition groups and individuals who support a multi-ethnic Kosovo. In a recent article published by the official news agency of Thaqi's party, a journalist and his editor who had criticized the level of ethnic intolerance in Kosovo were accused of being spies for Serbia. The Kosova press article further warned that "people like them may be the targets of some personal vendetta, which is quite understandable." Members of the Kosovo Protection Corps the force selected and trained by UNMIK and KFOR appear to be carrying out those vendettas: three weeks ago, KFOR arrested three KPC members for beating an ethnic Albanian man whose crime was to do business with an ethnic Serb. The murder of the UN worker from Bulgaria who was presumed to be Serbian further highlights the plague of ethnic bigotry and criminal violence that infects Kosovo.
The rise in robberies, looting, auto thefts, arson, and other crimes in Kosovo should come as no surprise given the extraordinarily high levels of unemployment. UN officials have called for reinforcements in order to improve local law enforcement and interdict smuggling operations. But the persistence of intolerance and political violence poses different kind of problem that cannot be solved by the introduction of a larger security force alone. Experiences in previous peacekeeping missions have shown that the underlying issues of a conflict must be addressed in order to achieve sustainable peace, Kosovo is no exception. The long-term challenge facing NATO and the UN is to defeat the racism in Kosovo that threatens to preserve the historical root of conflict and authoritarianism that has long defined the Balkan region.
Russian Instability Worries Pentagon -- In his Senate confirmation hearings as the next NATO commander, General Joseph Ralston said that Russia's economic crisis poses one of the most significant potential threats to the NATO alliance. "We have to do everything we can to make sure Russia does not become a failed state," said General Ralston. He also expressed concerns that erosion of Russia's conventional military capabilities will lead to a greater reliance on their nuclear forces.
GAO: Army Trailers Unusable -- According to a General Accounting Office report released this week, the Army has spent over $50 million to purchase 6,700 two-wheeled trailers that cannot be used unless the vehicles that pull them are modified. According to the report, the trailers, made by Silver Spring Manufacturing Co., "are not usable because of a safety problem and not suitable because they damage the trucks towing them." The Army plans to spend $640 per trailer to correct the problem. The GAO's report, "Defense Acquisitions: Army Purchased Truck Trailers That Cannot be Used as Planned," NSIAD-00-15. October 27, 1999, is available on-line.
U.S. Urges Iraqi Opposition to Unite -- The State Department is telling leaders of the various Iraqi opposition factions that a unified credible opposition is key to U.S. assistance in toppling Saddam Hussein. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Thomas R. Pickering has sent a letter to seven Iraqi opposition leaders who will be meeting in New York Friday. Congress has authorized the Administration to give $100 million to the Iraqi opposition, much of which would be in the form of surplus military equipment.
Congressional Budget Cuts Would Hurt Combat Readiness -- In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Henry Shelton said that the effects of proposed across-the-board federal spending cuts would be "devastating." The funds for the military's portion of the cuts, which could reduce all federal agency budget's by as much as 1.4 percent, would come mainly from those accounts that ensure troop readiness.
Air Force Out of JSF Program? -- On October 23 the New York Times reported that unnamed Air Force officials were considering dropping out of the Joint Strike Fighter program in order to ensure that funds would be available for the F-22. Responding to questions about the story, Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon emphasized that the capabilities of both aircraft are needed. Bacon did not respond to questions about whether the Air Force could actually pull out of the program, or whether the Defense Department had been approached by the service to discuss the possibility.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Survivors' Stories: Americans
and Landmines"
The threat posed by landmines is an issue far removed from the consciousness of most Americans. While images of landmines and landmine victims have been splashed across TV screens and magazine pages, many people still view landmines as something that affects people in distant lands. But a lesser-known fact is that over the years landmines have injured numerous American citizens -- tourists on vacation, relief workers, and even exchange students. These are their stories.
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