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| October 14, 1999 |
| October 14, 1999 |
Letting the Other Cat Out of the Bag
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
The Senate's failure to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is but a further statement to the world that the U.S. will continue to base its entire national security on the possession and use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, this vote will confirm the suspicions of many that the U.S. will never honor its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such an interpretation may be all that some nations need to bolt the NPT and start developing their own weapons, thereby effectively scuttling not only the NPT but also endangering the entire concept of nuclear arms control.
The CTBT controversy, as important as it is, has largely concealed other significant developments that bode ill for the future of nonproliferation. Of growing concern is the spread of cruise missile technology. In a recent address to a defense industry symposium, the Navy's cruise missile program chief noted that 77 nations now possess anti-ship cruise missiles. These pose a growing threat to fleet activities, particularly in the littoral or "brown water" environment.
Only three of these 77 nations -- the U.S., France, and Russia -- are believed to have produced long range land attack cruise missiles (like the U.S. Tomahawk), but many other nations are working on developing this capability. In a June, 1999 assessment, the U.S. Air Force predicts that by 2010 at least seven other nations will be producing land attack cruise missiles. Four of these new producers are close allies (U.K., Germany, Italy, Israel) but others, notably China, are military competitors. India, which has been expanding its navy in recent years, reportedly has also started a large research and development effort which may be helped by its prior acquisition of anti-ship cruise missiles. While India's program may be a response to China, it will also be viewed by Pakistan as a new threat from the south, particularly if India elects to develop a long range, nuclear-tipped version.
As with its ballistic missile development, a Pakistani effort to develop cruise missiles undoubtedly would rely on assistance from China and possibly North Korea. Although the latter is not known to possess cruise missiles, the North Koreans may have acquired technology that would assist in such a development. Earlier this year the General Accounting Office learned that two pieces of machinery regulated by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) were sold to an ally of the U.S. -- identified as Egypt by the trade publication "Defense Week" -- in 1989. Since Egypt has a long-standing military relationship with North Korea, as it does with Iran and Iraq, the presumption must be made that these three countries may have benefitted from the technology transfer. If so, providing the technology to Pakistan would be quite possible from any of these countries.
The GAO report concludes that the missile related capabilities of these machines was either unknown to those who approved the sales or that the review process was not conducted with an eye for missile applications. While the State Department has the final say on Foreign Military Sales, it depends on the Pentagon to highlight possible military applications. The continuing weakness of the system is that no government agency has the role to coordinate all the reviews to ensure that items falling under the MTCR are identified.
What ties this alphabet soup -- CTBT, NPT, and MTCR -- together is that warheads need a mode of transport that is fast and reliable. In today's world this generally means cruise and ballistic missiles. It makes sense to try to limit both components, emphasizing the warheads (as the destructive elements) but not forgetting those delivery means which, once launched, cannot be recalled. With the CTBT defeated for now, the U.S. confronts a more skeptical world that will be less amenable to joining or abiding by the provisions of the MTCR. Thus we end up with the worst of both worlds: no CTBT to restrain weapons development, and weakened restraints in trying to slow down the development of new means by more nations of delivering nuclear (and non-nuclear) weapons.
Congress Wraps Up Work on DoD Spending Package
Christopher Hellman, Senior Analyst, chellman@cdi.org
Earlier this week both the House and Senate passed the conference report of the Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2000. The legislation provides $267.7 billion for the military, $4.5 billion more than the Administration's request and $17.3 billion above FY'99 levels (not including the almost $13 billion in emergency supplemental appropriations.) In addition, Congress has appropriated $8.4 billion for military construction and housing and $12 billion for the Department of Energy's nuclear weapons programs in separate bills.
Agreement by House and Senate conferees on the spending package was delayed for several weeks by differences over the controversial F-22 fighter program. The House appropriated the $1.2 billion requested by the Pentagon for research and development on the aircraft, but eliminated the $1.8 billion requested for procurement of the first six production aircraft. The Senate fully funded the request. In the end, conferees agreed to reduce the total appropriation by $500 million, fully funded the research and development program, deferred aircraft production in FY 2000, created a $1 billion account for additional test aircraft and advanced procurement, and set aside $300 million for liability payments to the program's contractors should any of the aircraft currently under contract or contracted this year be cancelled.
Another factor which delayed agreement on the legislation was how to pay for it without exceeding the spending caps set by the 1997 Balanced Budget Act. In the end, conferees utilized a series of budgetary gimmicks and sleight of hand that would have made Houdini proud. First, appropriators declared $7.2 billion in funding as "emergency spending," and thus not subject to the caps. Second, conferees agreed to defer payment on $1.2 billion in spending that will occur in FY 2000 until FY'01. Other proposals still under consideration include utilizing as much as $3 billion in unspent funds from FY'99 emergency supplemental spending legislation, and delaying the last payday for military personnel in FY 2000 by one working day so that it falls in FY'01.
While Congressional budget leaders had to scramble to find ways to fund the military, members were as eager as ever to add money for weapons and equipment that the Pentagon didn't request. In all, the legislation includes $53 billion for procurement, $1.1 billion more than requested by the Administration. Of the total, over $3 billion is for programs unrequested by the military. According to a study done by CDI, $2.8 billion in unrequested funds were added by either the House or Senate. An additional $528 million in new spending was added by the conferees that did not appear in either version of the original legislation.
For additional information, see CDI's factsheet "Fiscal Year 2000 Add-Ons: Congress' Unrequested Spending for the Pentagon."
Colombian Rebels Receive Major Arms Shipment -- Weeks after the Clinton Administration announced millions of dollars in military aid to Colombia, Colombia's largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Army Forces of Colombia (FARC) received $50 million dollars worth of AK-47 assault rifles in an air drop picked up on U.S. radar. The weapons, delivered on a Russian-built IL-76 cargo plane, were thought by U.S. intelligence officials to have originated in the Caucasus and passed through Iran. The plane also made a refueling stop in Amman, Jordan.
Kosovo Strained U.S. Forces -- Defense Secretary William Cohen told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee this week that the U.S. military could not have continued operations as part of Operation "Allied Force" and still been prepared to fight and win two major regional wars. According to Secretary Cohen, this realization forced the Pentagon to look closely at what forces are available for conducting wars while contingency operations are under way.
Secretary-General Calls for Eliminating Targeting of Non-Combatants During Conflict -- UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan released a report to the Security Council last month detailing steps to prevent and minimize the effects of conflict on civilians. Annan said that groups and governments that target civilians during warfare should be subject to punishment and arms embargoes. Annan urged punishment in the form of "targeted sanctions" including travel bans, diplomatic isolation, suspension of grant aid, and denial of access to overseas markets.
Navy: Kosovo Refugee Casualties Avoidable -- According to Vice Adm. Daniel Murphy, commander of the U.S. 6th Fleet, which has responsibility for the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, NATO could have slowed the Serbian slaughter of ethnic Albanians or stopped it altogether had a U.S. aircraft carrier been on station in the Mediterranean when the fighting began. The carrier which had been on station was shifted to the Persian Gulf, and was not replaced until two weeks after the fighting began.
U.S. Using Concrete Bombs in Iraq -- In an effort to limit collateral damage from the continuing U.S. airstrikes against Iraq, the Air Force has begun using concrete bombs. The bombs can be either precision munitions or gravity bombs, and are made by removing the weapon's warhead and filling the body with concrete. According to a spokesperson for European Command, the U.S. has been using the concrete weapons since last December to attack targets located near civilian areas.
How Many F-22s? -- The Air Force currently plans to acquire 339 F-22 "Raptor" fighter planes. That isn't going to happen, according to Representative John Murtha, (D-PA), ranking Democrat on the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. "We're not going to ever build the number they want to build," said Rep. Murtha. "The money is not there." Subcommittee Chairman Representative Jerry Lewis (R-CA) said the actual numbers of F-22s and Joint Strike Fighters that the services will get will be determined within two or three years.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Refugees: War's Newest Weapon"
A startling trend became a stark reality during the war in Yugoslavia: Milosevic used masses of refugees to achieve military and political objectives. Because the plight of refugees created by "ethnic cleansing" was the original justification for the international conflict and because so many future conflicts will center around regional ethnic issues, the role of refugees and forced migration is both a key to the Kosovo conflict and a critical dimension of future wars.
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