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| September 16, 1999 |
| September 16, 1999 |
Arming Indonesia
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
The world watches the evolving situation in East Timor with bated breath. For the past weeks the international community has watched in horror as countless innocent civilians are killed and forced to flee their homes. Perhaps most horrifying to many is that images show Indonesian paramilitaries, armed with American-made M-16s, carrying out the slaughter.
The United States has long supported Indonesia's military and political regimes. In fact, the U.S. has been a major arms supplier to Indonesia for several decades. According to data compiled by the World Policy Institute, the U.S. government has approved over $1 billion in U.S. arm sales to Indonesia since 1975, the year Indonesia illegally occupied East Timor. U.S. weapon sales to Indonesia range from the small and insidious M-16 to as large and powerful as F-16 fighter aircraft.
The generous arms export policy of the U.S. to Indonesia has continued during the Clinton Administration. The World Policy Institute uncovered $148 million worth of weapons and ammunition supplied to Indonesia since 1993. (This figure includes technical support and spare parts for previously sold U.S. aircraft and armored vehicles.) Further, commercial exports of weapons to Indonesia have increased from $3.3 million in 1997 to $16.3 million in 1998. In addition, the United States approved $2.5 million in licenses for manufacturing and technical assistance to make U.S. designed weapons in 1998.
After over a week of "gross abuses" by paramilitaries supported by the Indonesian government, President Clinton finally announced the suspension of U.S. military ties with Indonesia. The move temporarily eliminates U.S. military aid to Indonesia, including training programs, government arms transfers, and commercial arm sales. The training program, already reduced over past years because of persistent human rights violations, is valued at approximately $500,000.
Congress, too, has taken action to prevent continued U.S. arm sales to Indonesia. In the Senate S.1568 (the House companion bill is H.R.2809) calls for the immediate suspension of all U.S. military and economic assistance to Indonesia until the results of the August 30 ballot have been implemented. Further, the resolution calls for U.S. support for an international mission in East Timor.
Another bill up for consideration in the House is H.R.1063. The bill, introduced before the current violence, would specifically ban all combat training to the armed forces of any country that is barred from participating in any training program due to human rights violations. This bill is intended to close a contentious loophole that has allowed Indonesia to participate in the Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCET) even though it has been denied International Military and Education Training (IMET) funds because of persistent human rights violations.
Last week, the United States agreed to support an international peace-keeping force in East Timor, headed by the Australians. However, the U.S. has announced it will play a limited role in the operation, providing intelligence, communications, logistics, and general support activities to the Australian led mission, according to Defense Secretary William Cohen. The Pentagon has said that U.S. ground troops will not be used.
The United States has been slow to act in East Timor, but it is still possible to take effective action. As a main supplier of weapons to Indonesia, the United States has a responsibility and an obligation to help stop the injustices currently occurring in East Timor. Over the short term, America must propel the UN to authorize the rapid deployment of a peacekeeping force to halt the systemic human rights abuses still being perpetrated by the anti-independence militias.
Over the long term, the United States needs to change its policy on arms sales, training, and other military aid. Countries prevented from receiving some kinds of military aid should be barred from receiving all other types. No loopholes should be tolerated that would permit some types of U.S. military aid. Above all U.S. weapons should not be given to human rights abusers or tyrants.
The time to act is now, the place to start is Indonesia.
Cooking the Books or Some New Math
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Anyone reading the newspapers the last two days might conclude that Congress is populated by advocates of the new math or by a bunch of closet cooks.
The Senate, in yet another example of budgetary smoke and mirrors, wants to flip billions of dollars in spending for Fiscal Year (FY) 2000 into FY2001. The grease they intend to use is a declaration that money for many non-defense programs such as health and education, although authorized and appropriated in the FY2000 budget, could not actually be used until October 1, 2000, the first day of Fiscal 2001. This in effect, creates a 13th budget month for FY2000 even though by every other measure this year -- like every year since the nation was founded -- has only 12 months.
This attempt to cook the books is not a new ploy. In 1987, Congress pulled the same trick with active duty and reserve military pay and federal civil service salaries. Pay and salaries which had always been paid on the last day of the month -- in this case, September 30 -- were withheld until October 1, thereby shifting the cost into the next fiscal year (FY1988). Ever since, the military and federal employees have been paid on the first of the month instead of the end of the month like every other working American.
This madness simply puts off the day of reckoning for the massive federal overspending that Congress and the White House are about to approve -- overspending that is concentrated in military weapons that are becoming less and less relevant for the more probable threats that will confront the U.S. in the next century. And justifying postponing the release of some FY2000 funds until the start of FY2001 by citing the higher level of projected budget surpluses ($161 billion in FY2000 vs. $193 billion in FY2001, if Social Security is included) is foolhardy, for there is even less assurance of a surplus in FY2001 than in FY2000. (By some reckoning Congress has already spent the FY2000 non-Social Security surplus, so delaying spending into FY2001 will cut sharply into the projected surplus for that year.)
But there may be a cool, unspoken, mathematical method in this congressional madness. Congress could save Social Security with the mere flourish of a pen -- and have even more money to squander on military and other pork -- by declaring that there will now be 13 months between everyone's birthday. Thus a 25 year old suddenly is 23, a 40 year old becomes 37, and a 65 year old eligible for Social Security suddenly is 60 -- and must therefore work 5 more years to earn benefits. More Social Security taxes flow in and lower benefits are paid out -- truly actuarial bliss.
When I went to school, I was taught there was only one instance when 13 might equal 12 -- a baker's dozen. This latest fiscal ploy may be an example of the new math. A more likely explanation is that it confirms what many have been saying for years: Congress cooks the books.
New U.S. Security Strategy Report Previewed -- On Wednesday, the Commission on National Security/21st Century previewed the first part of its analysis of the international security environment and recommendations for U.S. policy for the first quarter of the next century. "Phase I" entitled "New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century, Major Themes and Implications," contains a dozen basic assumptions and observations that guide the study, fourteen key conclusions about the global environment, and an analysis of their implications for U.S. security strategy. In "Phase II," to be released in April, 2000, the Commission "will seek to...build that strategy." Details of "Phase I" are available on the Commission's website.
The Invasion That Wasn't -- Wednesday, September 15 would have been the D-day for invasion of Kosovo. The Financial Times (U.K.) disclosed that under plans drawn up by NATO planners, NATO troops would have stormed into Kosovo through mountain passes on Wednesday. The war, however, ended on June 10 without NATO resorting to the use of ground troops.
Last KLA Deadline Coming Up -- Sunday, September 19 represents a deadline from the KLA to turn over its last remaining weapons and uniforms under the demilitarization agreement between the KLA and NATO. U.S. defense officials insist they expect the guerillas to comply. The deadline may bring little change for KLA personnel -- up to 5,000 fighters are expected to join the uniformed Kosovo Corps, a civilian emergency force.
Risk Kept Apaches Grounded -- General Henry Shelton, during hearings confirming him for a second term as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that the United States decided against using AH-64 Apache helicopters during Kosovo air operations due to concerns about crew safety. "The bottom line is that the anticipated benefit of employing the Apaches against dispersed forces in a high-threat environment did not outweigh the risk to our pilots," said Shelton.
CIA: ICBM Threat Includes Countermeasures -- In a National Intelligence Estimate released last week, the CIA said that "rogue" nations such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq which are developing ballistic missiles could test ICBMs within the next few years. While missile defense proponents cite the new report as additional proof of the need for the United States to deploy a national system, the report indicates that most nations attempting to develop such missiles will likely add various countermeasures that would significantly limit the effectiveness of any defensive system.
JROTC High School Opens -- The nations' first JROTC public high school has opened in Chicago. The Chicago Military Academy is the first public high school in the country run by the Army's Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps. According to the school's commandant, retired Brigadier General Frank Bacon, "We are not training soldiers. We are using military methodology to educated these students." However, the students attend school dressed in uniform. The curriculum includes English, math, science, and other college preparatory classes as well as military history, military science, and physical education. All students will be required to be in the band.
Clinton Offers $15 Million to Weapons Collection Programs -- President Clinton has announced a program that will provide $15 million in federal money to buy weapons back from citizens in inner-city neighborhoods, aimed at reducing the number of weapons in circulation. Local police departments will work with public housing projects to disperse up to $500,000 to buy guns in and around public housing projects for a "suggested price" of $50. The collected weapons will then be destroyed. Modeled on recent programs in New York City and Washington, DC, the administration estimates approximately 300,000 guns will be collected.
Brazil's Supreme Court Overturns Rio Gun Law -- Brazil's highest court has overturned a law passed earlier this year banning the trade of small arms in Rio de Janeiro state. Under the law's provisions, small arms could not be traded except between the armed forces, military police, and private security firms, with no exemptions for sportsmen or collectors. The law was instituted because of the high rate of gun violence in Brazil. For more information about the measure see "Commerce of Small Arms Banned in Rio," By Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, June 10, 1999.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Rebuilding in the Wake of War"
NOTE NEW TIME SLOT IN THE WASHINGTON, D.C. AREA -- Sunday, 10:30 a.m.
Many countries fall into a cycle of conflict in which war is followed by an unstable peace that again leads to war. There is a growing recognition that rebuilding a society is an essential part of creating an enduring peace. Known as "post-conflict reconciliation," these efforts focus on troop demobilization, economic development, establishing justice systems and creating a dialogue between former adversaries.
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