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| September 2, 1999 |
| September 2, 1999 |
Too Little, Too Late -- Again
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
August 30 the people of East Timor voted for autonomy within or independence from Indonesia. Defying intimidation and sporadic violence, over 98 percent of the eligible voters went to the polls, according to observers. U.N. monitors from the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) declared themselves satisfied that the referendum was generally free and fair.
Most who follow events in Indonesia and in East Timor in particular believe the overwhelming majority voted for independence. The vote is but the first step, however. While Indonesian President Habibie has said he will respect the majority's preference and will push for ratification of the vote by the Indonesian parliament later this year, the whole process may come to a sudden halt if violence in East Timor continues to escalate.
While the votes are being counted, a process that will take days, the international community can take steps to control the violence which is being instigated in large measure by anti-independence militias allegedly supported by hard line elements in the Indonesian Army and government. Indeed, a report in the Washington Post (September 2) points to an effort by the Indonesian governor of East Timor to divert $700 thousand in World Bank loans to fund anti-independence militias. Yet the governor remains at his post.
In any nation government has the responsibility to ensure the safety and security of individuals within the society. In Rwanda, the world refused to act; even the U.N. force that was in the country was pulled out. When Slobodan Milosevic tried to destroy the majority ethnic Albanian people and culture of Kosovo by brute force, the Western powers invoked the principles of humanitarian need and universal human rights to override claims of absolute national sovereignty. In Indonesia, the same kind of brutality, camouflaged as a factional fight among East Timorese, is raising its head. The central Indonesian government and the Army say they have no part in the violence, but neither the police nor the military seem particularly responsive or willing to intervene when violence starts.
While the votes are being tallied, the world has a small window of time in which to act if the Indonesians will not. On August 27, the United Nations Security Council extended UNAMET's mandate until November 30. The mission's civilian police compliment was increased to 460 and the military liaison component to 300. But UNAMET's mandate is to advise authorities in East Timor, not to help maintain security. Being unarmed and so few in number, UNAMET could not even begin to stave off another Rwanda, let alone another Kosovo.
Unfortunately, despite the death of at least one U.N. worker and wide-spread intimidation of other U.N. personnel, the Security Council is unlikely to take stronger action. Russia and Chian can be expected to oppose any move to authorize an armed mission. Nor do the other three permanent members of the Council, all active participants in the bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, seem inclined to invoke the same human rights and humanitarian principles in Indonesia that were used to justify intervention in Kosovo. But in early August an Australian newspaper alleged that the U.S. had approached the Australian government about contingency plans for "deploying up to 15,000 troops into East Timor if bloodshed dramatically escalated" and suggested that Australian troops might be included in a wider peace enforcement operation. While conceding that contingency plans were always being formulated and even discussed, the Canberra government denied there was any active planning for intervening.
In the end, the difference between Kosovo and East Timor may come down to this: Washington is more concerned with new instability in Indonesia associated with the upcoming possible transition of presidential power from Habibie to the victor in the June Indonesia-wide parliamentary election, Megawati Sukarnoputri. This concern is reinforced by the fact that Habibie and the Indonesian armed forces chief, General Wirento are "our" men in Jakarta, whereas Yugoslavia's Milosevic was not. The U.S. may believe it can positively influence these leaders, and that may be so. But basing policy solely on personal relationships is as risky as ignoring internal depredations sanctioned or supported by rulers. People pass, relationships change, but memories endure.
Security Council Adopts Child Soldier Resolution
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
For the second year in a row, the United Nations Security Council has examined the issue of child soldiers. In a day-long session it debated the various facets of the issue and sought ways to curtail the exposure of all children to war.
Olara Otunnu, the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Children in Armed Conflict, told the Security Council that children in approximately 50 countries are affected by armed conflict. According to UN data, during the last decade more than twenty million children have been displaced by conflict, two million killed, one million orphaned, six million seriously injured or disabled, and twelve million have been made homeless because of wars. Perhaps most disturbing, over 300,000 children are now fighting in over 30 countries around the world -- an increase from last year's report of 250,000.
At the conclusion of the session, the Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1261 condemning the targeting and use of children in armed conflict. Some children's rights advocates were encouraged by the adoption of the Security Council resolution. Otunnu said, "The very fact that the council, which normal only deals with high politics and military aggression, should be engaged in humanitarian and human rights issues...and not just in a statement, but in a formal resolution, that signals the strongest possible message that one could get." Others, however, felt the resolution didn't go far enough. There was no mention of raising the age limit of recruitment of soldiers to 18. The omission was due to U.S. opposition because the United States wants to continue its practice of recruiting high school students for the military.
The resolution requests the Secretary-General submit a report to the Security Council by July 31, 2000 reporting on the implementation of the resolution. The report requires the Secretary-General to consult with all relevant parts of the United Nations system and take into consideration the work of other groups and organizations. The Office of the Special Representative is also to play a significant role in this work, good news for supporters of the work Otunnu has completed.
The Security Council action also highlighted the detrimental impact of the proliferation of small arms on the security of civilians, particularly children. Resolution 1261 referred to Resolution 1209 (1998) which urges nations that produce and market weapons to restrict arms transfers and encourages cooperation in combating illegal arms flows. Resolution 1261 also calls upon Member States and the United Nations to facilitate the disarmament, demobilization, rehabilitation, and reintegration of child soldiers.
The Security Council discussed ways to decrease and limit the involvement of child soldiers in many conflicts around the world. Otunnu told the Council that he believes a three-prong approach is needed. First, the age limit for recruitment and participation in armed conflict must be raised to 18. Second, international pressure must be mobilized to force armed groups to stop abusing children by forcing them to be soldiers. Third, the political, social, and economic factors which create an environment conducive to the use of child soldiers must be addressed.
While the initiatives of the Security Council are welcome steps in trying to stop the use of child soldiers, there is more that can and should be done. Resolutions alone are not enough; real action is needed. The international community must adopt an 18 year minimum for the recruitment of youths as soldiers. The Security Council and other international bodies must not bow to the United States on this point. Protecting the rights of children must be an essential part of international policy and the rules governing armed conflict.
For more information about last year's Security Council action see "International Efforts Address Use of Child Soldiers," By Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, July 9, 1998. For the text of Security Council Resolution 1261 and information about the Security Council Debate, see the United Nations Press Release August 25, 1999, SC/6716.
It's Show Time! The Silly Season Returns
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Congress returns to Washington from its August-to-Labor Day holiday and will resume work on the pile of budget bills that are supposed to be passed by September 30. Among these are the appropriations and authorization legislation for the Pentagon for Fiscal Year 2000.
Of particular interest is the Defense Appropriations bill, which will be considered by a congressional conference committee. One significant difference between the House and Senate bills is the $1.8 billion deleted by the House for production of six F-22 Raptors for the Air Force. Rhetorically it is shaping up to be a pitched battle, with Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) vowing to keep the money in and Representative Jerry Lewis (R-CA) vowing to keep it out.
Although caught off-guard by the House action, the Pentagon reacted swiftly. Secretary of Defense William Cohen said that "the Department of Defense cannot accept this decision" even though as a Maine Senator he called for eliminating the program in 1990. The Air Force said that without the F-22 the U.S. will not be able to dominate the skies. One unnamed Air Force official even raised the specter of body bags coming home if the F-22 program did not go ahead. Others, less melodramatic, along with officials of prime contractor Lockheed Martin, estimated that a "pause" in the production schedule would add $6.5 billion to the program's cost.
Lockheed Martin plunged into the fight on another front. It mobilized its F-22 subcontractor base to send emails and faxes and make telephone calls to members of Congress advocating full funding for the F-22. The contractor has also taken to the road, carting an F-22 simulator to key states such as California, New York, Florida, and Georgia to drum up political backing. The road show hits Washington, DC on September 9, just after Congress returns.
If this dog-and pony show were not enough, Bell Helicopter and Boeing will hold a "Tiltrotor" extravaganza at the Pentagon on September 8. Bell is trying to interest the Coast Guard in a tiltrotor aircraft and hope to get Secretary Cohen into its XV-15. The day will also feature the MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor which, unlike the Raptor, was fully funded to begin operational test and evaluation in FY2000.
By the way, no one has said who is paying for the Lockheed Martin road show or the cost of bringing the tiltrotor aircraft to the Pentagon.
U.S. Troops to Withdraw from Haiti -- The U.S. has decided to withdraw the current American force -- 480 regular active duty troops and a security force from the Army's 82d Airborne Division -- from Haiti, citing budgetary constraints. The troops are the last of the 20,000 troops sent to Haiti in September 1994 to help restore the elected government of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. To maintain some U.S. presence in the troubled country the Pentagon has announced that it will send small contingents of reservists and National Guard members similar to the assignments in other Caribbean and Central American countries.
Dagestan Conflict Continues -- After forcing invading troops from Chechnya to withdraw, Russian federal forces turned their sights on home-grown Islamic fundamentalists in Dagestan. This week, Russian troops bombarded two villages under control of Islamic groups which renounced the Dagestani government and imposed Islamic law on their territory. Some rebels from the force which invaded Dagestan from Chechnya were reported to have taken shelter in these villages.
Kosovo Standoff Dividing KFOR Troops -- Ethnic Albanians continue blocking Russian peacekeeping troops from assuming their assigned places in the Kosovo town of Orahovac. Negotiations between KFOR and local leaders suffered a setback when the KLA sided with the protestors. KLA leader Hashim Thaqi visiting Orahovac said he believed that the protestors' demands would be met. KFOR leaders now face a conflict between the KLA, on whose cooperation in Kosovo they depend, and the Russian troops, which are an integral part of the international peacekeeping mission. A compromise currently in the works may see the troops stationed outside Orahovac or patrolling with the Dutch and German troops currently deployed there.
Landmines Destroyed in Nicaragua -- Nicaragua has destroyed 5,000 anti-personnel land mines from its stockpiles, moving toward compliance with the Ottawa Landmines Treaty. This is the second time Nicaragua has destroyed a part of its arsenal -- they destroyed 5000 in April. Nicaragua has a total of 130,000 landmines to destroy. Nicaragua is also working with the Organization of American States to destroy landmines from its civil war between the Sandinistas and the U.S.-backed contras.
No Empty Cockpits -- Responding in a recently released report by the General Accounting Office on pilot retention, the Pentagon indicated that no flying units were deploying without 100 percent of its pilots, but that shortfalls were occurring in non-combat postings which requirements state must be staffed by a pilot. The GAO has recommended that the services re-examine their nonflying positions to determine if they actually need to be filled with active duty pilots. The GAO report "Military Personnel: Actions Needed to Better Define Pilot Requirements and Promote Retention," NSIAD-99-21, August 20, 1999 is available on the internet.
JASSM Program Delayed -- Last week the Pentagon announced that it would delay by one year, until 2002, its decision to begin production of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, one of the next generation of "smart" munitions. The decision came just two weeks after the JASSM's first successful guided test flight. The Pentagon blames the systems contractors Teledyne and Lockheed Martin for the delays, which according to the Air Force will cost $53 million.
U.S. Nuclear Warheads OK for Y2K -- According to the General Accounting Office, U.S. nuclear weapons are ready for the Year 2000 computer calendar change. In a letter to Energy Secretary Bill Richardson entitled "Nuclear Weapons: Year 2000 Status of the Nation's Nuclear Weapons Stockpile," (RCED-99-272R), GAO stated that none of the four types of nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal which contain microprocessors generate or store dates, nor do they need dates to function properly.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Where Is the United Nations?"
The NATO bombing campaign in Yugoslavia was triggered by Slobodan Milosevic's refusal to accept an international peacekeeping force in Kosovo made up entirely of NATO troops. U.N. peacekeepers were scarcely considered as an alternative acceptable to both sides. However, they are expected to play a large role in the U.S. exit strategy. Could the costly air war, the refugee crisis, and the deaths have been avoided if the U.N. had been given a larger role?
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