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| August 26, 1999 |
| August 26, 1999 |
Demystifying The Role of Islam in The Former Soviet South
Tomas Valasek, Research Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org
The sudden outbreak of fighting in Dagestan in Russia's south revived fears in Moscow and elsewhere of the Caucasus and Central Asia succumbing to radical Islam. Violence broke out in four different countries this month. In Dagestan, a republic of the Russian Federation, Chechen troops fighting for the reunification of Chechnya and Dagestan under an Islamic banner briefly occupied several villages. In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are battling Islamic groups lodged in the mountainous region where the borders of the three republics converge. The gunmen took a number of people hostage in Kyrgyzstan, embarrassing its government which had been hosting a regional summit with the presidents of Russia and China.
While the nature of the current crises differ from country to country, they appear to share the same root causes -- collapse of states and state authorities, poverty, and outside pressure towards religious radicalization.
Dagestan's crisis bears all the above marks. Most of the population in the Caucasus region has historically been Muslim, dominated by the Sufi order. This particular order blended original pre-Muslim traditions with Islamic customs; an aberration only strengthened through decades of isolation from the rest of the Muslim world during the Soviet rule. Nevertheless, Caucasus-watchers agree, religion served to strengthen the ethnic groups' identity during years of Russification. In the case of Chechnya, Islam provided spiritual support to fighters facing militarily superior (at least on paper) Russian forces during the 1994-96 conflict. Sufi Islam became closely intertwined with nationalism and with the existing social structure in most north Caucasus republics.
But the nature of religious beliefs in the region has been changing recently. The opening of the borders in early 1990s enabled Arab missionaries preaching a more radical form of Islam to begin work in the former USSR. Russian and local government officials usually label the missionaries as 'Wahabis,' after an Arab Islamic order originating in the 18th century. In a strict sense, Wahabis are followers of a teaching that strive to purify Islamic belief and rituals. Wahabi missionaries in the Caucasus are openly hostile to the traditional Sufi Islam of the region, which is permeated by pre-Muslim traditions.
Anatol Lieven, author of a book on Chechnya and a reporter during the Russo-Chechen war notes, "The 'Wahabis' in the North Caucasus used to number a few, with minimal influence; but religious radicalization produced by the war, the arrival of former Arab Mujahedin who had served in Afghanistan and, above all, Arab money, have since made a strong impact."
The term "Wahabism" has been overused and abused by government officials and the media -- there is no indication, for example, that the Chechen commander Shamil Basaysev who led the Dagestan revolt is a Wahabi. But regardless of the banner, radical Islam is making inroads in the former Soviet South, The region houses countless veterans of the Chechen, Abhkaz or Afghan conflicts, who possess few skills beyond warfighting and few other career options in these impoverished regions. Islam provides the cause to sustain their fight -- and more fighting produces more generations of people uprooted from their homes and professions. The categorical moral purity of the Islamic message also appeals to those disillusioned with the corruption and poverty plaguing the former Soviet republics.
In the case of Dagestan, Russian influence has kept the country relatively stable and slowed the process of religious radicalization. The population of Dagestan consists of over 30 ethnic groups with competing claims on each other's territories. Subsidies from Moscow and Russian political tutelage helps keep Dagestan from disintegrating. The use of the Russian language and a complicated system of power-sharing have kept the republic together so far, just as belonging to the Russian Federation gives Dagestanis a sense of unity which the country would normally lack. Consequently, Chechen troops trying the separate Dagestan from Russian and create a common state with Chechnya found little support among Dagestanis.
But Russian subsidies have dropped off and its and influence has waned considerably recently, partly because of Russia's political and financial difficulties and partly through the growing influence of Islam. Should Dagestan separate or fall apart, it would likely descend into inter-ethnic fighting, furthering the poverty and religious radicalization of the region. The real danger to the republic is not a band of Islamic fighters from Chechnya but its own internal fractures and a crippling social situation.
Holding the Pentagon Accountable
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
In a scathing letter to Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) castigated the Pentagon for failing to take remedial action on a series of 41 recommendations from the General Accounting Office. Senator Thompson noted ten areas in which DoD had neither rebutted the GAO recommendations nor taken remedial action. These ranged from inventory control and financial management to Y2K and weapons system acquisition.
With regard to the latter area, Senator Thompson notes that the entire acquisition process rests on a "culture dependent on continually generating and supporting the acquisition of new systems." This culture, abetted by the iron triangle of DoD, Congress, and industry, sacrifices cost control, technical requirements of the systems under development, adequate testing, and long range planning, thereby opening the door to mismanagement, waste, and fraud.
The Pentagon's recent rush to move systems from research and development into demonstration and even production illustrates Senator Thompson's concerns. One on the more egregious is the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system. THAAD's development program specified that it should chalk up three successful intercepts of a target in its Program Definition and Risk Reduction phase before it entered engineering and manufacturing development (EMD). THAAD experienced six straight failures before it registered two successive hits on its seventh and eight attempts. The hits were against a target devoid of any countermeasures and whose range, speed, altitude, and flight profile were known to the "defenders." In addition, Philip Coyle, the Pentagon's Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, noted that the highly touted successes were achieved using a THAAD missile different from what will be bought for the deployed system. Furthermore, the targets were short range ones and thus did not test the system's intercept capability over extended distances.
Nonetheless, on the basis of these last two tests -- a 25% "success" rate overall -- the Pentagon's Ballistic Missiles Defense Organization waived the need for a third successful test before the program transitions into EMD.
But that is not where this story ends. Earlier this year the Pentagon fined Lockheed Martin, which builds THAAD, $15 million because the company failed to meet contract performance standards demanded by Congress. Now the Pentagon is trying to end run Congress and give the $15 million back to Lockheed Martin. Furthermore, with the cancellation of the third test before moving into EMD, Lockheed Martin also escapes the threat of further fines because it no longer must have three successful tests by the end of 1999.
For its part, Congress is encouraging this accelerated pace in acquiring untested, unproved weapons by throwing more money at the Pentagon, all the while expressing "concern" about cost growth and under performance. In the anti-ballistic missile field the Navy's Theater Wide program received $90 million more to speed development and shifted $60 into the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) system's EMD phase to help resolve technical problems. If PAC-3 scores a hit in its next test (again against a preprogrammed target), it will go into low rate initial production. The expected test has been delayed twice already because of "problems" with the target missile.
A parallel rush to production has also happened in the Pentagon's tactical air program, notably the Navy's F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet and now the Air Force's F-22 Raptor. In spite of continuing problems, the Navy is trying to get Congress to approve a five-year multi-billion procurement contract for the Super Hornet. The Air Force is pushing to get into the F-22 into low rate initial production this year even though, as of July 26, the aircraft has completed only 283 hours of flight tests, some seven percent of the programmed test schedule.
The Army, meanwhile, is trying to get its first unit ready for the digitalized battlefield of the future. Its goal is to field the first such unit by the end of calendar year 2000. But important systems such as the MILSTAR communications satellite and the Tactical Command and Control System will not be ready.
In an August, 1999 report (Best Practices: Better Management of Technology Development Can Improve Weapon Systems Outcomes -- NSAID-99-162) the GAO also points to three other high profile systems that were moved from the science and technology phase into the main acquisition funding cycle long before they were ready: the Airborne Laser, the Comanche helicopter, and the Brilliant Anti-Armor Submunition. Specifically, GAO noted that unproven or experimental concepts were still included in these projects when they were put into the main procurement stream, thereby inevitably driving up the costs and delaying full program development.
Given all the money that is going into the Pentagon, it's not surprising that the services are pressing ahead as fast as the contractors can respond. The old adage about new weapons, "Too early to tell [if they will work], too late to stop," with the emphasis on the second part, seems to be the byword of the moment. And that "moment" will not end until we have a spectacular failure that is traced back to a decision to field a system even though some technology never matured or testing was curtailed to meet cost or time lines.
U.S. Navy an Unwelcome Neighbor in Puerto Rico
Chris Hellman, Senior Analyst, chellman@cdi.org
Although local opposition to the Navy's operation of a live fire range on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques has existed for many years, the accidental killing of a Navy-employed civilian security guard has heightened tensions about the Navy's continued presence on the island and brought the issue to national attention.
The U.S. government owns roughly two-thirds of the 22 mile long island, which is located due east of the main island of Puerto Rico. The island's 9,300 inhabitants live on the other third. The Navy has conducted training operations on Vieques since the 1940's. In addition, training time is leased to allied military forces on an "as scheduling permits" basis.
On April 19 a U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 dropped two 500-pound bombs off target, killing security guard David Sanes Rodriguez. A U.S. Navy investigation found that the pilot became disoriented and accidently hit the wrong target -- an observation post. In addition, a ground control officer cleared the pilot to release his bombs even though the pilot had not visually identified his target. The ground control officer has received a letter of reprimand and been transferred. He could face additional disciplinary actions. The pilot could face a court martial. Neither has been publicly identified.
Since the April incident protesters have occupied the range, and Puerto Rico's governor, Pedro Rossello, has demanded that the Navy close the range. National level political figures are adding their voices to the protests. In early August forty-six national religious leaders sent a letter to President Clinton, urging him to close the range. The Reverend Jesse Jackson visited the island and called the training operations "Un-American." Former Senator Bill Bradley, now a Democratic candidate for president, said that the Navy has caused "humanitarian and environmental damage that is unacceptable." And Governor Rossello informed reporters last week that Vice President Al Gore has told President Clinton that he should look at alternatives to the Vieques range.
The Navy maintains that the bombing range is necessary to ensure the readiness of its forces. A July 15 Navy Department report to a presidential commission looking into the issue states that Vieques is the only Atlantic range where the Navy can conduct full-scale live fire exercises. "Vieques is the singular common range [on the Eastern seaboard] where all Navy and Marine Corps combat and combat support systems can be fully integrated." In a letter to the panel accompanying the report, Navy Secretary Richard Danzig cited the importance of training done at the facility for the success of Kosovo combat operations. Army General Wesley Clark, commander of U.S. European Command and the top NATO commander, said that U.S. Navy and Marine Corps forces "may not be fully combat ready" if they are not permitted to resume training at Vieques.
The Navy admits that it has had other incidents at Vieques in the past. According to Navy officials, several years ago they dropped Agent Orange near the island's main town. An inquiry through the Freedom of Information Act revealed the use of depleted uranium munitions -- in violation of federal law -- in February of this year. And after years of denials, the Navy admitted in July that it had used napalm on the range in 1993. Vieques residents claim that in 1994 another F/A-18 dropped five 500-pound bombs outside the town, missing the intended target by some ten miles.
According to the government, the cancer rate for Vieques residents is 27% higher than for other Puerto Ricans. Concerned about potential health and environmental threats, base opponents have had an independent analysis of the area done. The testing, conducted by Pace Analytical Services, Inc., took soil samples at three locations on the bombing range. The results revealed that years of bombing had left traces of 11 metals and cyanide in the soil. They include arsenic, barium, cadmium, cobalt, lead, mercury, vanadium and zinc. The quantities found of at least four of the compounds would put the site on the federal Superfund list.
The presidential panel looking in to the Vieques situation is expected to make its final report this month.
Early Elections Likely, Without Kosovo -- Serbian newspapers report that the Yugoslav government may call early elections for November 7. The government is under pressure from opposition parties which called on President Milosevic and his cabinet to resign in favor of a transitional government. Kosovo -- internationally recognized as a part of Yugoslavia -- may be excluded from the voting as it is "temporarily under UN administration," said a government official quoted in the Yugoslav daily, Blic.
Robbing SFOR to Pay KFOR -- NATO is considering consolidating its Bosnia and Kosovo peacekeeping operations to reduce the burden on countries contributing troops, Jane's Defence Weekly wrote. KFOR and SFOR already use a unified air package. Logistics, surveillance, command, communications and other duties are also expected to be merged. Several European countries and the United States have announced reductions in their Bosnian contingents forced about by new duties in Kosovo.
Caucasus Arms Concerns -- The fighting in the north Caucasian republic of Dagestan died down as invading troops from neighboring Chechnya announced a withdrawal from contested towns. The brief conflict, however, may have set a stage for future trouble. In an effort to stop the Chechen troops, Russia handed out tons of small arms to newly formed militias in Dagestan. There is concern that the weapons may be used in internal strife in this small republic of the Russian federation. Dagestan's politics is dominated by tensions among the more than 30 ethnic groups living there and the republic has experienced a rash of violence in past years including a brief takeover of a government building by armed militants in 1998.
Russian Air Force Facing Shortfalls -- A report in Jane's Defense Weekly cites Lt. Gen. Aleksandr Ionov, the first deputy chief of the Russian Air Force main staff, the service is facing serious funding shortfalls. According to Gen. Ionov, unless funding is increased, only 40-50% of the Air Force's aircraft will be suitable for operations by 2001.
Kenya Closes Border With Somalia -- Responding to recent incidents of smuggling of firearms and other contraband, Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi said that Kenya would close its border with Somalia. A section of the border was closed last month after Somali militiamen seized weapons and equipment from an army patrol unit.
DC Expands Gun Buy-back -- After collecting 600 guns in one district earlier this month, the District of Columbia conducted a citywide gun buy-back program this week. Using funds from money confiscated in drug crimes, nearly 1200 weapons were collected in the program's first day -- over 2000 were collected in two days. Individuals received $100 and complete amnesty for each weapon they turned in. The District made $225,000 available for the buy-back. The collected weapons will be tested to see if they were used in crimes and then melted down.
UN Mission in Sierra Leone Expands -- The UN Security Council has decided to expand the UN peacekeeping mission in Sierra Leone from 70 to 210 observers. The West African Peacekeeping force, ECOMOG, will provide security for the UN peacekeepers, according to the Security Council decision. UN observers will monitor the disarmament and demobilization of ex-combatants.
Y2K and Nuclear Weapons Alert Status -- A Letter
A growing body of individuals and organizations are acting to call attention to the potential dangers of Y2K problems as they may affect the safety of nuclear weapons. Dangers are most acute with respect to thousands of nuclear armed missiles maintained in full alert status by Russia and the U.S. The organization, "Friends of the Earth," has noted that Presidents Yeltsin and Clinton will next meet in Berlin on September 21 in conjunction with the G-8 gathering there. They recommend that if you share a sense of urgency to reduce Y2K dangers that you send a FAX to either or both Presidents urging that all nuclear missiles be taken off of alert status before January 1st.
CDI agrees that every concerned individual should express their views forcefully in a fax to the President(s). It is not necessary that the message be a long one -- only that it should be delivered often. A suggested message, which you may amend or expand as you desire, follows:
President Boris Yeltsin -- 7-095-205-4330
President Bill Clinton -- 1-202-456-2461
Dear Mr. President:
As the new millennium approaches, no one can be certain what effect the Y2K problem may have on computers controlling nuclear missiles maintained in full alert status in both Russia and the U.S. In order to reduce the dangers of an inadvertent launch of some or all of these weapons, I recommend most urgently that they be taken off of alert status. Agreement to do this requires no negotiations nor treaty, merely a commitment by you and President XXXXXX to take this wise and prudent action. The precedent for such Presidential action exists in a comparable agreement between Presidents Gorbachev and Bush in 1991 to pull back deployed tactical nuclear weapons, a major improvement in security for both nations.
The Cold War is over and it is time to profit from this fact by de-alerting all nuclear missiles before Y2K in order to reduce the danger of a computer generated nuclear war. Russians and American's alike can all sleep better if you will stand down the missiles.
Sincerely,
NOTE: For maximum effect, faxes should be sent beginning on September 1st,
or as soon thereafter as possible.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "The Environmental Impact
of War"
From the defoliation of the forests in Vietnam to the oil fires of Kuwait, all major wars of the 20th century, and current conflicts like Kosovo, have had a hidden casualty: the environment. Unexploded weapons, polluted rivers, contaminated soil, and damaged landscapes have all harmed human health, local economies, and ecosystems. The long-term effects of such environmental damage have not yet been fully determined.
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