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| August 5, 1999 |
| August 5, 1999 |
Cluster Bombs Leave Lasting Legacy
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
While much attention has been given to the deadly landmines littering Kosovo, there is another threat to returning refugees and peacekeepers. Unexploded cluster bombs, left over from NATO's air strikes, are strewn throughout Kosovo.
Cluster bombs are a relatively inexpensive ($16,500 each) indiscriminate weapon heavily used during NATO's 78 day air campaign in Yugoslavia. They are placed in canisters outfitted with a small parachute to allow the munition to float to the ground after it is released from an aircraft. The canisters are designed to open 50 feet off the ground. A description of the destructive capability of the cluster bombs says "they can spray incendiary material to start fires, chunks of molten metal that can pierce tanks and other armor, or shrapnel that can slice with ease through 1/4-inch plate -- or human flesh and bone."
The Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO say that U.S. warplanes dropped 1,100 cluster bombs in Kosovo. Each individual cluster bomb contains 202 bomblets, meaning 222,200 bomblets fell on Kosovo. The dud rate for cluster bombs is five percent according to DoD statistics. A DoD spokesman said the U.S. assumes that 11,110 bomblets remain unexploded in Kosovo.
Incredibly, the five percent dud rate is low compared to previous estimates based on the use of cluster bombs in Vietnam and the Gulf War. But the presence of at least 11,000 unexploded bomblets in Kosovo could create widespread mayhem among returning refugees and peacekeepers. The first two casualties to peacekeeping forces were British soldiers attempting to disarm unexploded cluster bombs. Other peace-keepers remain at risk as they try to identify the locations of unexploded bombs. Civilians, too, are threatened daily from unexploded bombs in fields, yards, destroyed homes, schools, and along streets. A recent survey by the World Health Organization (WHO) found that over 150 people have been killed or injured by landmines and unexploded ordnance in Kosovo. More than half of the casualties are believed to have been caused by unexploded bombs dropped by NATO and U.S. warplanes. According to the WHO study, an estimated 70% of the victims are under the age of 24.
The effects of NATO's unexploded munitions reach beyond Kosovo's borders. Already 161 explosive devices, including 97 bomblets, have been recovered by allied minesweepers in the Adriatic Sea. Munitions dumped at sea have caused deaths and injuries to Italian fisherman in the Adriatic and cost others the majority of the year's profits. A fishing ban in the Adriatic, extended once, is projected to last until August 31 to allow minesweepers to collect more unexploded devices. In addition, tourists have abandoned the beaches along the Adriatic coast for fear of encountering unexploded bombs.
While the problem of cluster bombs and unexploded ordnance is of concern in Kosovo, U.S. officials claim that the problem is not as severe as after previous conflicts, such as the Gulf War. A Human Rights Watch report says that of an estimated 24 to 30 million bomblets dropped during the Gulf War, between 1.2 and 1.5 million did not explode, leading to 1,220 Kuwaiti and 400 Iraqi civilian deaths.
Cluster bombs are on a long list of weapons that many people and organizations want banned. But achieving a ban will take time. In the short term, as part of strong mine awareness campaigns, civilians need to be taught to recognize the unexploded canisters and individual bomblets and instructed to stay away from them. Funding must be provided for victim assistance programs to deal with the horrific injuries caused by these devices. Finally, finding and neutralizing unexploded ordnance must be a top UN and NATO priority, for in the absence of a concerted effort the legacy from these weapons will last well into the next century.
Croatia Under Fire
By Tomas Valasek, Research Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org
Years after the first wave of Balkan conflicts, Croatia is being forced to face up to its own role in the Bosnia war and its treatment of ethnic Serbs.
Croatia was the site of the initial battles of Yugoslavia's disintegration. The Serb-controlled Yugoslav army occupied large swaths of Croatian territory populated by Serbs. Four years later, however, Croatian forces successfully re-conquered the disputed Krajina region in a four-day "Operation Storm." The campaign then moved on to neighboring Bosnia. The Croat army, by then in an alliance with Bosnian Muslims (Bosniaks), succeeded in ousting the Bosnian Serb troops from portions of the country. This ground offensive has been credited with forcing Yugoslav president Milosevic to sign the 1995 Dayton peace agreement that ended the Bosnian war.
But it was Croatia's earlier involvement in Bosnia which is now being investigated by the International War Crimes Tribunal (ICTY) for the former Yugoslavia. Prior to forming an alliance with Bosniak troops (under heavy pressure from the United States), the two parties fought savagely over the remains of the rapidly disappearing Bosnian state. One of the most famous images of the Bosnian war -- the destroyed medieval bridge in the town of Mostar -- is the result of fighting between the Croats and the Bosniaks.
To Croatia's fury, ICTY prosecutors last month accused president Frano Tudjman of ultimate responsibility for the Croat troops' conduct. The tribunal alleges that the units engaged "in a systematic campaign to eradicate an entire ethnic group [Bosniaks] from territory coveted by Croatia." Croatian officials argue that the atrocities, if they indeed occurred, were committed by militias formed by Croats living in Bosnia, rather than the regular Croat army.
Croatia's troubles with international law do not stop here -- the International War Crimes Tribunal also opened an investigation into "Operation Storm," Croatia's re-conquest of the Krajina region. Prosecutors requested that Croatia turn over documents related to the campaign as well as two suspects indicted on war crimes charges. Two Canadian peacekeepers present in Krajina during the campaign testified that Croats shelled clearly civilian areas. Croatia refused to cooperate with the Tribunal, prompting a complaint to the UN Security Council, which could theoretically result in sanctions being imposed on Croatia. On August 4, the country adopted a slightly more conciliatory tone and agreed to turn over one suspect, without mentioning the other one or the documents requested.
The Krajina investigation could have embarrassing consequence for the United States. By 1995, when "Operation Storm" took place, Croatia had become a U.S. ally in an attempt to push back the Bosnian Serb troops. A U.S. mercenary group, Military Professional Resources, Inc., trained the Croats and may have even taken part in planning the operation. The International War Crimes Tribunal has asked the Pentagon for full cooperation with the investigation.
China and the WTO: Economic Engagement as a Step Toward Liberalization
Jonathan Kaufman, Research Associate, jkaufman@cdi.org
Australia and Japan have just concluded agreements with China setting conditions to enable China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Experts including U.S. Secretary of Commerce William Daley, Chinese Minister of Foreign Trade Long Yongtu, and WTO Director-General Renato Ruggiero all express the belief that Chinese participation in the WTO will be essential for economic stability in the century to come. With such broad consensus, why are negotiations which would eventually bring China into the WTO and the global economy at an impasse?
The PRC government broke off trade talks with the United States in May as a result of what the Chinese perceive as the failure by U.S. officials to provide a satisfactory explanation of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. This suspension of discussions came on the heels of President Clinton's rejection of a trade deal offered by Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji during his visit to the United States in April. Although China refuses to accept the American account of the bombing incident, Premier Zhu has made it clear in public statements that China is intent on entering the WTO before November when world leaders are to meet in Belgium to hammer out details on a wide range of global free trade agreements.
The deals with Japan and Australia indicate that China wants to reopen trade negotiations with the U.S. since an agreement with the United States is practically a requirement for membership in the WTO. Many independent observers feel that China cannot offer America a much better deal than the one Clinton turned down earlier this year over differences in tariffs on steel products. Thus, in reality, the U.S. will decide on what terms, if any, trade talks with China will proceed.
U.S. trade policy with China is influenced by three main pressure groups. The first believe that China is a competitor and a potential enemy against whom major export restrictions and protective trade barriers should be instituted and maintained. The second see trade as a carrot to be proffered to encourage China to improve its record on human rights and change course on certain military and economic issues -- and to be withheld if the Chinese fail to meet U.S. "standards." The third maintain that full economic engagement with China opens China's economy which in turn fosters broad, incremental improvement in areas of concern to America: human and political rights, nonproliferation, peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, and balance of trade.
The first view is not really viable from a policy standpoint; most analysts and policymakers agree that treating China as a hostile entity would engender dangerous and counterproductive policies that could eventually pit the world's most populous nation against the world's most powerful nation. However, it is just this sort of rhetoric that surfaced in the wake of the release of the Cox Report. Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush responded to the Clinton Administration's perceived laxity in dealing with alleged Chinese espionage by declaring, "The current administration calls China a 'strategic partner.' China is not America's strategic partner. China is a competitor, a competitor which does not share our values, but now, unfortunately, shares many of our nuclear secrets." Bush may have simply been availing himself of an opportunity to criticize presidential policy. But given the tendency of PRC hard-liners who do not understand the American political dynamic to regard as U.S. policy the remarks of any prominent U.S. official, statements like these can be detrimental to the delicate process of rapprochement with China.
Policymakers are really left with the second and third options (or some combination of the two) as the basis for a coherent U.S. policy toward China. Demanding changes in the Chinese government's approach to social and military issues as a condition for China's entry into the WTO is more pragmatic and promising than casting China as an adversary. Such an approach is attractive to liberal human rights advocates and defense-conscious conservatives alike, both of whom are wary of giving concessions to the PRC before it changes its policies. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has criticized the Clinton administration's policy of full engagement, saying, "This administration's China policy, like that of the administration before it, has not succeeded in making trade fairer, people freer, or the world safer."
However, a recent study by Professor Douglas Guthrie of New York University suggests that engagement has actually introduced liberalization and reduced rigidity to the Chinese economy, progress that will have a major impact on Chinese government policy toward both its own citizens and the outside world. In a survey of eighty-one factories in the Shanghai area, Prof. Guthrie found that exposure to Western business practices has produced a climate of reform in the work environment. His study indicates that a culture of "the rule of law" is developing in which citizens are more protected from arbitrary abuse of governmental and managerial authority. Pressure for these reforms, which seems to have begun in work units which have had contacts with Western firms, has resulted in national legislation like the 1995 Workers' Compensation Law, which gives workers the right to sue the government, and the Labor Law, which creates a formal grievance system for workers.
Some elements of Chinese life remain very restrictive. But it stands to reason that increasingly open trade will expose more of the country to the decentralizing influences of Western business. Trade with the PRC totaled over $60 billion last year, and that figure is going up. Both the PRC and the U.S. have every reason to come to a compromise that will both narrow the trade imbalance that angers so many Americans and strike some of the restrictions on U.S. exports that frustrate the Chinese. A deal that allows the PRC to join the WTO will promote economic stability and prosperity, foster improvements in human rights, and do much to repair the damage the past two months have wrought to Sino-American relations.
New Zealand Will Rent F-16s -- The New Zealand government will lease 28 F-16 fighter aircraft from the United States in a deal which will cost $189.6 million. The F-16's had originally been slated to go to Pakistan, but the arrangement was canceled after Pakistan's nuclear tests last year. At the end of the 10 year lease New Zealand will have the option to buy the aircraft from the U.S. outright for approximately $150 million.
U.S. Undercuts Arms Control -- A report presented to the United Nations this week states that the failure of the United States and the other nuclear weapons states to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while weakening agreements on chemical and biological weapons have undercut decades of international arms control activities and have made the world less safe. The report, done by a panel of international of arms control experts, was commissioned by Japan to assess the impact of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests.
Air Force Asks for Help -- Air Force Chief of Staff General Michael Ryan has asked the heads of the other military services to relieve the USAF of some of its current duties as he reorganizes the service into rapid response units known as Air Expeditionary Forces. The Air Force has ongoing deployments in Kosovo, Bosnia, South America, South Korea and Iraq. Yet since all are heavily reliant on aircraft it is unclear what assistance the other services, with the possible exception of the Navy, could provide.
Cohen Opposes F-22? -- In a July 15 letter to Congress, Defense Secretary William Cohen stated that he could not support any legislation which killed the F-22, which he described as a "cornerstone program." But it appears that he hasn't always felt so strongly about the aircraft. A Baltimore Sun story this week revealed that as a U.S. Senator and member of the Armed Services Committee, Secretary Cohen supported the F-22's termination. In an op-ed that appeared in the Washington Post in 1990, then-Senator Cohen wrote "The astonishing pace of political change in Eastern Europe has caused many conventional assumptions to crumble...a variety of systems intended for use in the European theater, such as the Advanced Tactical Fighter (F-22) should be eliminated."
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "The Limits of Air Power"
Technological advances in missile weaponry have provided the temptation to use air power in situations where ground forces would never be considered. In the last year, the U.S. military has attacked four countries in four regions with cruise missiles (Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia). Yet the aerial attacks have a checkered history of success. What has the aerial attack on Yugoslavia in the Kosovo war revealed about the limits, and risks, of air power?
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