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| July 22, 1999 |
| July 22, 1999 |
Albright Speech and Report Link Arms and Conflict in Africa
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
In her first major speech on small arms in almost a year, Secretary of State Madeline Albright discussed the devastation caused by small arms and light weapons on the African continent.
Albright's remarks came in a speech delivered to the annual conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP). Having come under criticism for the lack of U.S. action in Africa while billions are spent in places like Kosovo, Albright detailed why European interests were crucial to U.S. national security. One consequence of this European focus is that Africa often falls by the wayside in the minds of U.S. policy makers. "But," she said, "that is no excuse for disengaging or giving up. Instead it is a challenge, as President Clinton has suggested, to use the lessons of Kosovo to help us do better in Africa." Further, Albright acknowledged that the United States did not do enough, quickly enough, to stop the genocide in Rwanda five years ago.
Albright said a priority for the United States is the "need to halt the uncontrolled flow of guns and other weapons into Africa. In Africa, the end of the Cold War brought large quantities of weaponry into the continent at bargain-basement prices, through transactions that were neither regulated nor recorded. As a result, the continent is awash in arms that feed conflict and crime."
Albright said solutions to the small arms problem in Africa are being pursued and that related issues such as the use of child soldiers and the spread of disease and poverty must also be addressed. The Secretary of State stressed the need for "working in cooperation with the United Nations and African leaders to strengthen the enforcement of arms embargoes, negotiating a global agreement to prevent the illicit manufacturing or sale of firearms, and seeking support for rules governing the export of shoulder-fired-missiles." Albright concluded that "curbing the illicit or destabilizing sale of arms would help make Africans safer and Africa stronger."
Kweisi Mfume, President of the NAACP, welcomed Albright's remarks, but expressed continued concern over U.S. priorities for dealing with the African continent. Albright's speech was delivered one day after the NAACP's announcement that the NAACP would be suing gun manufacturers in order to facilitate the "implementation of specific manufacturing and distribution practices to promote greater industry responsibility and accountability for the benefit of all people in this country."
Albright's speech coincided with the release of a State Department report, "Arms and Conflict in Africa," prepared by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research and Bureau of Public Affairs. The report notes that Africa's numerous conflicts are sustained by the continued proliferation of small arms and light weapons. The report highlights examples of the detrimental effects small arms and light weapons have on fragile societies, citing specific examples of legal and illicit arms transfers throughout the continent. Acknowledging that there is no "quick-fix solution" to the small arms problem, the report says that "establishing strong monitoring and policing mechanisms to support ongoing efforts to restrict arms flows to and within Africa will require a demonstration of sustained political will on the part of African leaders and a commitment from the international community to begin sharing information about arms sales and exercising a far higher degree of restrain in approving the transfer of weapons to the region."
The report concludes that "many of Africa's protracted wars continue because the combatants believe military force can resolve political and economic problems. A concerted effort to constrain the availability and flow of weapons to these conflicts might significantly alter the plans of those who continue to choose war over peace."
Zeroing MEADS Means Zeroing Cooperation With Europe
Colonel Dan Smith, USA (Ret.), Chief of Research, dsmith@cdi.org
Over the last week most attention in the annual federal budget battle has focused on the House Appropriations Committee actions regarding the USAF's F-22 Raptor which lost $1.8 billion in funding for FY2000. Both the Pentagon and the White House protested, claiming that this cut, if it holds, would mean the end of the program even though another $1.2 billion was left untouched.
No such protests have been registered over the Appropriations Committee's elimination of $48.5 million for the Medium Extended Air Defense (MEADS) program which represents a complete zeroing of the project for FY2000. The House action on MEADS, like the cut for the F-22, may have caught military authorities off-guard, for as recently as three weeks ago it seemed that the Pentagon and Congress had agreed to fund the program beyond FY2002.
MEADS is a tripartite (U.S.-German-Italian) effort begun in 1995 to develop a truly mobile battlefield missile defense against ballistic and cruise missiles and aircraft. A potential problem with MEADS is the U.S. insistence, reluctantly agreed to by the European partners, that the interceptor be based on the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) which is one part of the U.S. Army's theater missile defense (TMD) array. As currently configured, PAC-3 cannot discriminate between real warheads and likely accompanying countermeasures such as chaff and decoys. Nor does its radar have the ability to allow full 360 degree engagement of incoming threats. The Pentagon says that these deficiencies can be corrected primarily with software changes, although some hardware might also have to be modified.
In deleting the funds for MEADS, the House committee cited the $100 million already spent, largely for "a seemingly endless series of studies," and the likelihood that little more will come of the almost $150 million more the Pentagon wants in the next three years. Appropriators believe that these paltry results reflect a lack of commitment to the program, and they will not, in turn, commit more funds.
This refusal was fortified by a Committee finding, contained in a 313 page report accompanying its appropriations bill, that the Pentagon last year diverted $2 million from another missile defense program to keep MEADS alive. Furthermore, in its FY1999 six year budget projection, the Pentagon failed to include any spending for MEADS. Congress, with justification, took this as a signal of a lack of Pentagon interest in supporting the program.
In spite of all the miscues by the Pentagon, House appropriators reiterated their belief that a highly mobile, easily transportable tactical missile defense system is needed to protect forces in the field from ballistic and cruise missiles and hostile aircraft. Given this sentiment and the fact that Senate appropriators did not eliminate MEADS funding, the program may survive Senate-House negotiations to work out differences in the funding bills.
The European MEADS partners are understandably nervous about the congressional action and the seemingly nonchalant attitude of the Pentagon. They have made clear that their continued involvement depends on a continuing U.S. commitment.
The message to the Pentagon from both Congress and Europe is: show more support for MEADS. If you don't, it will end up like so many other joint U.S.-European initiatives -- at zero.
Helicopters, Not Jets, Are Hungary's Weapon of Choice
By Tomas Valasek, Research Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org
U.S. plans to sell fighter jets to Hungary may have been derailed by the most unexpected of obstacles -- the Rand Corporation. The general nominated to become the Chief of Staff in Hungary, Lajos Fodor, told the press he prefers to buy attack helicopters instead of fighter jets. The helicopter option was first suggested in a secret study commission by Hungary and prepared by the Rand Corporation, arguably the most influential U.S. defense consulting firm with close ties to the Pentagon.
Since announcing plans to join NATO in the early 1990s, Hungary has been courting U.S., French and Swedish plane makers for the best deal on the expected buy of roughly 30 supersonic jets. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Dassault (France) and a Saab/British Aerospace consortium have already invested millions in Hungary to offset the cost to Budapest of the future aircraft buys, estimated at around $1 billion.
But the fighter procurement plans faltered lately. First, the government of Victor Orban announced in August 1998 that the purchase would be delayed until 2003. In November 1998, the Rand study suggested that helicopters, rather than fighter jets, would be more suited for the Illinois-sized country. In March 1999, Defense Minister Janos Szabo officially stated his preference for helicopters. Finally, the man nominated for Hungary's highest military spot -- the Chief of Staff -- joined the supporters of the helicopter option.
Under the current plan the ageing fleet of Mig-21 fighters would be phased out and not replaced. The newer Mig-29s would be upgraded. Gen. Fodor told Reuters that the country's attack helicopter fleet would be expanded to between 80 and 100 gunships.
The decision comes as a disappointment to companies waiting for the fighter jet tender. The Saab/BAe Group with its JAS-39 ‘Gripen' jet, for example, spent millions marketing its plane in Hungary. In addition, Swedish companies Electrolux and Ericsson (part of the Saab group) invested tens of millions of dollars in new plants in Hungary. In 1997, Swedish companies operating in Hungary under the fighter jet offset agreement accounted for 5% of the country's industrial output. Russia, eager to boost sales of its Mig-29 fighter, even offered to trade them for Hungarian wheat.
The remaining two new NATO members -- the Czech Republic and Poland -- maintain that they intend to buy fighter jets. The Czech Republic sent out a letter of interest seeking offers from potential sellers. Bids are due at the end of September; with a decision not expected until late this year. Poland already collected bids from five companies for an initial batch of 60 aircraft worth around $1.5 billion. The Warsaw government plans to buy up to 90 aircraft eventually.
Reexamining the Deutch Commission Report
Laura Beers, Research Assistant, lbeers@cdi.org
The Deutch Commission's report released this July offers a harsh assessment of the United States government's (USG) counter-proliferation infrastructure. However, the report overlooks the substantial efforts the Administration has already undertaken to streamline and reorganize the USG's myriad counter-proliferation programs.
When the Commission to Assess the Organization of the Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction was created by Congress three years ago, the government's counter-proliferation programs were poorly organized to combat the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). However, in the last year the Departments of State and Defense have reorganized and streamlined the counter-proliferation programs managed by their respective agencies. This past spring the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) was integrated into the State Department. John Holum, ACDA's former chief, assumed the title of Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs and will now oversee diplomatic policy on arms control and proliferation issues. DoD underwent a more dramatic restructuring with the establishment of the new Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) last fall. DTRA combines five formerly independent weapons proliferation and arms control programs under one administrative umbrella.
Moreover, in his 1999 State of the Union address, President Clinton unveiled a $1 billion initiative to revamp the Administration's lines of defense against WMD proliferation from Russia and the newly independent states (NIS) of the former Soviet Union. The Expanded Threat Reduction Initiative (ETRI) creates a joint funding request for the Departments of Defense, Energy and State (the three main agencies concerned with WMD proliferation) to combat weapons proliferation from Russia and the NIS. The NIS Coordinator's Office in the Department of State reviews operations proposals from the three agencies to assure that they comply with U.S. diplomatic objectives in the region. The Senate authorized and appropriated the full request for ETRI funding for FY'00, and the House authorized near full funding for the program as well.
While ETRI does not address all elements of U.S. counter-proliferation policy -- for instance domestic programs run by the FBI or programs to counter proliferation from North Korea, Pakistan or other states outside the former Soviet Union -- it does address what the Deutch report considers to be one of the United States' highest priority counter-proliferation objectives: the sale of fissile material to Iran or another rogue nation by a "disgruntled Russian scientist." The programs covered under the ETRI funding request -- Cooperative Threat Reduction, DoE's Nuclear Cities program, and the International Science and Technology Centers program managed by the Department of State, among others -- all concentrate on preventing just such a scenario from occurring.
The Deutch report cites the "absence of a cross-cutting budget for program elements related to proliferation" as one of the main weaknesses of the USG's counter-proliferation infrastructure. If "elements related to proliferation" includes all U.S. operations related to counter-proliferation from the efforts of local fire departments to prepare cities for a chemical weapons attack to the of the Nunn-Lugar program to deactivate and destroy Russian nuclear warheads, then it is true that no comprehensive budget exists. However, ETRI is a comprehensive cross-cutting budget for non-proliferation programs for Russia and the NIS.
The failure of the Deutch Commission to make any mention of ETRI in its 176 page report seems to be more than a mere oversight. The Administration has actively promoted the Initiative over the past six months, and the Commissioners were thoroughly briefed on ETRI by members of the NIS-Coordinator's office. Failure to mention ETRI in their report, therefore must have stemmed from a conscious decision to exclude the Initiative.
Possibly the twelve members of the Commission could not come to agreement regarding ETRI and thus decided to ignore the Initiative altogether. Possibly the Commissioners made an active decision to ignore the creation of ETRI because the existence of the program would subvert their claim that the Administration was ignoring the threat from WMD proliferation.
Whatever the reason, the failure to mention ETRI calls into question the thoroughness and objectivity of the entire report.
For more on the Deutch Commission report, see "Report on Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction Released," CDI's Weekly Defense Monitor, Volume 3, Issue 27, July 15, 1999.
Israel Chooses F-16s -- Lockheed Martin was awarded a contract estimated at $2.5 billion from Israel for 50 F-16I fighter jets. The contract includes an option to purchase an additional 60 planes, raising the total value to $4.5 billion. Israeli companies will provide approximately 25% of the contract value as producers of the electronics, weapons, cockpit systems, and airframe components. The first deliveries should begin within 4 years Lockheed Martin beat out Boeing's F-15 for the Israeli contract.
Sierra Leone Will Begin Disarmament -- The disarmament of former Sierra Leonean rebels will begin August 18 in accordance with the recently signed peace agreement. Rebels will be able to turn arms and ammunition at specified locations to UN military observers or the West-African peacekeeping force, ECOMOG.
More funding for Navy Jammers -- The House Appropriations Committee has increased the Pentagon's budget for upgrades to its fleet of E/A-6B radar jamming aircraft, adding $227 million to the program. With the retirement of the Air Force's fleet of EF-111 jamming aircraft, the E/A-6B has become the military's primary jamming escort aircraft. The committee, in its report, noted that air operations in Kosovo "made it clear that even advanced stealth aircraft benefit from escort jamming from the E/A-6B, counter to assumptions made when the EF-111s were retired."
Russian Air Defenses Without Power -- "Itar-Tass" reported on July 20 that Russian air-defense and air force units in the far East region of the country were without electrical power for three days. The electricity was shut off without warning by the regional power authority because of unpaid bills. According to the Russian military authority in the area only one quarter of this year's bill has been paid due to lack of funds. The story did not give specific dates of the shutdown.
Future of F-22 Likely Secure -- Although the full House will probably follow the actions of the Appropriations Committee and eliminate $1.8 billion requested by the Pentagon for the purchase of six F-22s, it appears likely that at least a portion of the funding will be restored. The Clinton Administration has indicated it will likely veto any DoD spending bill that does not include full funding for the program. Senator John Warner (R-VA), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, and Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, have both stated their belief that the funding will be restored.
This Week on America's Defense Monitor: "Can America Work With Russia?"
Kosovo is but one of many flashpoints for deadly conflict that lie close to the border of the former Soviet Union. Russia itself is a political and ethnic tinderbox that stretches across eight time zones. Yet U.S. efforts to work with Russia to avoid conflicts have been generally bungled. Are there advantages to a new, more cooperative relationship with Russia?
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New CDI Study: "The Armed Forces in Georgia."
The Center for Defense Information announces the release of a research report entitled, "The Armed Forces in Georgia." Georgia, a former Soviet Republic located between the Caspian and Black Seas and to the south of Russia, plays an important role in efforts to export oil from the Caspian Sea to the West.
The new study offers a detailed description and analysis of Georgia's security situation, including the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two territories that waged a war for secession in the early 1990s. Decision-makers, the media, and the academic and business worlds will benefit from the study's survey of the paramilitary groups operating on the territory of Georgia.
Copies of the study are available by calling the Center for Defense Information at (202) 332-0600 or e-mailing Tomas Valasek. For more information, visit us on the web.