The Center for Defense Information
Center for Defense Information
1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW * Washington, DC 20036
(202)332-0600 * Fax (202)462-4559 * www.cdi.org
| July 1, 1999 |
| July 1, 1999 |
More Subs for the Navy?
Chris Hellman, Senior Analyst, chellman@cdi.org
The 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) called for a reduction in the number of nuclear attack submarines from the 73 that were in the fleet at that time to 50 by 2003. Currently there are 58 in the fleet, but high ranking Navy officers are saying that the number of submarines in the existing fleet, let alone the QDR level, is insufficient to meet operational requirements. As a result, Navy Secretary Richard Danzig has indicated support efforts to increase the size of the attack submarine fleet.
According to the Navy, the operational demands for submarines, particularly for intelligence and reconnaissance missions, have actually gone up since the end of the Cold War. At the Naval Submarine League's annual conference in June, Vice Admiral Ed Giambastiani stated that the number of such missions has doubled since 1990.
In its efforts to reach the QDR force levels, the Navy has been retiring Los Angeles-class submarines which still have years left in their service lives. If the Navy is to increase the size of its fleet, it will most likely buy more New Attack Submarines, known as the Virginia-class. But at more than $2 billion each, these submarines are considerably more expensive than the $500 million Los Angeles submarines. The Navy hopes to save money and still increase the attack submarine fleet by upgrading some of the remaining Los Angeles-class boats and extending their service lives.
The Navy is also trying to decide the fate of four of its eighteen Trident ballistic missile submarines. Under the START II arms control agreement the Navy would retire four Trident submarines, each of which has 24 missile tubes capable of launching D-5 or C-4 missiles each armed with eight warheads. While the Navy has indicated its desire to retire the four submarines now, Congress has for the past three years included language in the annual Defense Authorization Act requiring the United States to stay at START I levels until Russia ratifies START II. The Navy estimates it could save $500 million annually by retiring the four Tridents.
Retiring? Well actually, not exactly. A congressionally-mandated report on the possible conversion of four Trident submarines to either conventional guided missile submarines or special operations vessels was released on June 14. The report found that the conversions would be technically feasible, but would entail significant arms control and cost issues. According to the report, the cost of conversion to conventional missile boats is $1.57 billion for all four submarines. Removing all the missile launchers adds between $290 million and $420 million to the conversion.
If, however, the Navy does not remove all the missile tubes, then under START II the maximum number of possible nuclear weapons the submarines could carry would be counted as part of the United State's total allowed strategic warheads, irrespective of whether the boats are configured to deliver nuclear weapons.
It is difficult to see how the Navy can afford these various programs. Retiring the Tridents was viewed as a way to generate funding for other higher priority programs. The conversion program will not only not yield the anticipated savings, it could cost as much as $2 billion. Adding additional attack submarines to the existing fleet at $2 billion per copy in order to perform intelligence missions is extravagant. To say that this requirement is sufficient justification for a major expansion of the attack submarine fleet is like saying you need a high performance sports car for deliveries so that the pizza doesn't get cold.
Disarmament Process Plagues Northern Ireland Peace Agreement
By Rachel Stohl, Research Analyst, rstohl@cdi.org
At midnight on July 1, 1999 the deadline for talks between Northern Ireland's political leaders to reach an agreement towards the fulfillment of the Good Friday Agreement, and more specifically the creation of the "power sharing executive for the Northern Ireland Assembly and the transfer of authority to the new legislature from the British government" passed. As British, Irish, and international leaders encourage compromise, the main players continue to meet, negotiating the agreements biggest stumbling block, the disarmament, or decommissioning, of the paramilitary groups.
This main point of contention is rooted in the Sinn Fein's refusal to promise any disarmament of the Irish Republican Army and its allies before May 2000, the deadline specified in 1998's Good Friday Agreement. On the other side, the Ulster Unionists, Northern Ireland's largest political party, has said that Sinn Fein cannot take its place in the two Cabinet seats it won in last year's elections until disarmament assurances are made. Ulster Unionist President and First Minister of the Northern Ireland Assembly David Trimble has stated publicly, "No guns, no government." Sinn Fein has countered that it does not have the power to make the IRA disarm, and even if it did, the parties don't have to disarm until May 2000.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair summed up the complexity of the problem. "The Unionists won't believe Sinn Fein is committed to peace and fit for government unless they start to decommission first. Sinn Fein won't try to get decommissioning until they know the Unionists are serious about letting them in the Government," Blair said.
Currently, negotiations are underway for a compromise deal. The plan clarifies the timetable and process for the disarmament of all parties. The process of monitoring compliance would be left to the International Commission on Decommissioning, headed by retired Canadian General John de Chastelain. The first weapons would be turned over in the fall of 1999, with the entire cycle completed by May 2000. Those parties not living up to the agreement could face suspension from the government.
All sides agree that decommissioning is crucial to the success of the Good Friday Agreement. The amount of weapons still held by various paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland is significant. According to Terence Taylor, assistant director the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the Irish Republican Army is thought to possess between one and four tons of Semtex explosive. Experts also believe that the IRA has up to 10 Russian-made DShK machine guns, hundreds of grenades, approximately 600 Kalishnikov assault rifles, 15 surface-to-air missiles, assorted flame throwers, 50 rocket-propelled grenades, and five RPG launchers. The IRA is believed to have received the majority of their weapons from Libya in the 1980s.
Although the numbers of IRA weapons far outweigh their Unionist counterparts, the Protestant loyalist groups also possess a significant number of weapons. The Ulster Defense Association (UDA) and Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) have stocks of handguns, Kalishnikovs, and Powergel, an explosive. The Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) also has Powergel, rifles, handguns, and detonators in their arsenals.
Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, experts believe that we will never see full disarmament in Northern Ireland because of the lack of trust each side has in the other. "I don't think anybody seriously expects us either to know the full number or to be told the full number. And do we really believe that everything will be handed in? We're not going to have that kind of perfect solution," said Taylor.
For Further Discussion of the Disarmament Process in Northern Ireland, See "Northern Ireland Faces Disarmament Challenge," by Rachel Stohl, Weekly Defense Monitor, March 18, 1999.
Serbian Kids taught to Kill -- British forces, part of NATO'S KFOR troops, have uncovered evidence that Serbian school children in Kosovo were taught how to plant landmines and set booby-traps. The children, some as young as 12, were taught about defense and weaponry as a mandatory part of the curriculum. The "civil defense" classes were theoretically taught in both Serbian and Albanian classrooms, but it appears that the Serbs emphasized the military and weapons skills to a greater extent than their Albanian counterparts. Members of the 5 Airborne Brigade, who originally discovered the materials, at first thought the school had been mined and booby-trapped. However, it was discovered that in fact what was found were sophisticated models. The British troops will send the materials to Britain for analysis and then will use the models for teaching soldiers about mines.
Airstrikes Continue in Iraq -- U.S. and British aircraft dropped precision-guided munitions against Iraqi military targets on five separate raids last week. In all, there were fourteen attacks against Iraqi targets during the period between June 1 and June 25, eight against targets in the northern "no-fly" zone, and six in the southern 'no-fly' zone. According to the U.S. Central Command, there have been 190 "provocations" by Iraq in the southern 'no-fly' zone since Operation "Desert Fox" last December.
Russian Defense Budget Woes -- According to an article in the June 30 issue of "Jane's Defense Weekly," the Russian military budget is suffering from the effects of late payments and rising inflation. As of May 31, military personnel were owed $340 million in back pay, and $200 million was owed for food bills. The Russian Finance Ministry has no money to pay for increases in service pensions.
U.S. to Retain Tokyo Base -- Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura announced this week that his country will not seek the return of the U.S. Yakota Air Base near Tokyo. The statement came in response to a request by Tokyo's mayor, Shintaro Ishihara, to have the base, along with other U.S. military facilities in the area, returned to Japanese control. 47,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Japan, and the basing issue has become increasingly controversial, particularly in Okinawa, where the majority of U.S. forces are stationed. Yakota AB is the home of the 374th Airlift Wing, the only U.S. airlift wing in the Far East.
Apache Crashes Due to Lack of Training, Resources -- Testifying before Congress today, Brig. Gen. Richard Cody, the directory of Army operations, resources and mobilization, cited lack of training as a result of inadequate resources as contributing to the two crashes of Apache helicopters during Operation Allied Force, one of which killed two servicemen. General Cody was questioned closely about a memo he wrote stating that the Apache crews sent to Kosovo were short of pilots, were not used to flying with night vision goggles, and did not have enough flight hours due to high pilot attrition.
This week on America's Defense Monitor: "Alternatives to Military Power
in Foreign Policy"
As the 20th century ends, U.S. actions in Kosovo and Iraq demonstrate the limits of purely military force to achieve diplomatic and political goals. The challenges of the 21st century will demand global cooperation in the areas of commerce, the environment, and communications. Is America's massive military designed to serve the nation's needs in an era when international talk, travel, trade, and cooperation will be the thrust of our foreign policy?
Airs in Washington, DC on Sunday, July 4 at 12:30 p.m. on Channel 32.
Airs in NYC on Friday, July 9 on Channel 25 at 830 p.m., and on Saturday,
July 10 at 7:00 a.m. on Channel 13.
For air dates in other cities, check your local listings.
Visit our website for transcripts, CDI resources, and related links.
E-mail adminfo@cdi.org with the message "subscribe" for automatic updates
on new videos.
Regular Price: $39 each
INTERNET PRICE: $29
Order at 800-CDI-3334, or on the web.