Terrorism: Some Mundane Targets and Methods

For years, officials have been warning of the potential for mass casualties resulting from terrorists smuggling nuclear devices into the United States, or creating and introducing biological and chemical agents into the air, water supplies, or the food chain. More recently, the virulence and frequency of computer viruses have multiplied, confirming warnings that cyberwar is a very real and present danger to the functioning of vital national infrastructure.

Unlike the unexpected use of planes-as-bombs, various forms of defense have already been employed to counter the nuclear, biological, chemical, and cyber threats. But terrorists are notoriously inventive; if blocked one way from achieving their ends, they devise alternatives. Even if the methods are more "conventional" than exotic, the targets can well be unexpected.

One can learn from the experience of the United Kingdom during the peak periods of terrorist activity in London about some more "mundane" aspects of terrorist activity — those employing explosives. What is so different between then and 2001 is the purpose and the fanaticism of the actors. Nonetheless, what follows is a small sample of possible targets employing explosive means of attack.

Transportation networks are prime targets. For example, pipe bombs and other explosive devices placed in culverts long have been used by many groups to blow up passing vehicles. In one infamous incident, an anti-tank weapon was fired at the motorcade of the top American general in Europe.

But the roads themselves could be targets. For example, on any given day, cars, presumably with mechanical or electrical failures, are parked along interstates and ring roads that encompass large metropolitan areas. Such vehicles are often left empty as the owners seek help or, in extreme weather, temporarily abandon them. The "normalcy" of these occurrences could easily mask an explosive-laden vehicle. Damage would be increased if a bridge or bridge abutment were involved. Indeed, some highway interchanges are so complex (the series of "fly-overs" in south Houston or the "mixing bowl" in Northern Virginia) that even the threat of such terrorist action would temporarily immobilize major transportation. And the effect of such threats would be compounded in cities with tunnels.

Rail lines are notoriously vulnerable. They run through rugged or virtually uninhabited terrain. Even in urban areas, key junctions and switching or signal points may be routinely unattended and hence vulnerable. Highway bridges over rail lines provide an opportunity for a well-timed "accident" to drop a vehicle onto the rails. Rail tunnels, whether used for cargo, commuter lines, or as part of urban mass transit also are vulnerable. And trash receptacles in stations can be used to conceal explosive devices, which is why there are none in the London Underground.

In the wake of the Sept. 11 tragedy, the news media have noted the lapses in airport security with regard to passengers and luggage. But airport perimeter security must be enforced to prevent terrorists from getting close enough to runways to attack departing or arriving aircraft with automatic weapons or shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.

Direct attacks employing ground vehicles against structures are always possible, although precautions already taken with regard to public buildings have mitigated the risk and would force the use of a large amount of (or an "enhanced") explosives. However, the use of van mounted "mortars" could be a substitute for symbolic assaults on key government and financial centers.

Finally, large scheduled gatherings are susceptible to terrorist attacks. Again, these can be direct — with the terrorist physically part of the crowd — or indirect using mortar-like weapons. The objective would be not only to cause death and injury from the explosive force but from the expected panic that would ensue.

Perhaps the most effective counter to any and all of the above is for Americans to shed their daily self-absorption, and become more aware of their surroundings and environment. Today's widespread availability of wireless communications that can be used to alert authorities about abandoned cars or suspicious packages or anything that seems out of place is a major — and important — distinction from the past experience of Londoners.

It may not seem much, but it can make all the difference.

By Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.) CDI Chief of Research dsmith@cdi.org

Sept. 20, 2001

 
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