Could Saddam Take Iraq Down With Him?

The following is an updated version of an editorial by Rear Adm. Stephen H. Baker entitled "The Iraq Game Plan," published by The Washington Times on July 12, 2002.

Throughout the past month, Saddam Hussein has faced an onslaught of media reports about the inevitable invasion of Iraq by the United States and a "regime change." All indications point to the fact that life, as he knows it, is going to rapidly change for the worst, and probably within the next 60 days.

There is a possibility that Saddam already realizes that his government cannot survive. It does not seem feasible that U.S. President George W. Bush is going to back down, and any hope that Saddam has of continuing to play cat and mouse with the UN inspectors is already starting to dwindle.

Cornered and realizing an inevitable defeat, death or trial as a war criminal, and with nothing to lose, Saddam could resort to his long-standing pattern of lashing out at other targets. At the very minimum, Saddam is preparing for an invasion of his country by the most sophisticated, lethal force in the world.

So, if you were Saddam, what would you do right now?

Stay alert for any signs of escalation of U.S. military activities pointing to an invasion.

Instruct all regional commanders to be ready to operate autonomously.

Reinforce each major urban area with Republican Guard soldiers.

Adopt a strategy that avoids open combat and focuses on urban street fighting in heavily built-up areas, which will inflict high U.S. casualties. Use civilians as human shields.

Organize forces and operate out of mosques, hospitals, and schools, using them as sanctuaries from air strikes. When the invasion starts, ensure that when civilians get killed the images of U.S.-caused civilian carnage pictures of weeping Iraqi mothers and children who have been killed or maimed are transmitted by satellite television all over the world

Deploy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries around Baghdad. Develop plans to have a reserve force of 100,000 or perhaps more to spread throughout the entire urban area of the city when an invasion starts.

Consider pre-emptive military options.

Develop a contingency plan to torch Iraqi oil fields in order to keep them out of the hands of American occupiers. Target Saudi oilfields with biological agents that will require years of painstaking sanitization efforts. Prepare the dams along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for demolition, flooding the southern Iraq desert with billions of gallons of water.

Redouble construction efforts to build missile, aircraft, tank and radar decoys, which will be spread across likely target areas.

Relocate and camouflage or conceal everything of military value.

Start building concrete revetments at select military locations to protect soldiers, aircraft and tanks. Preposition obstacles on runways at key bases to prevent their use by coalition forces as staging areas for fixed wing aircraft.

Ensure all operational Scud missiles are dispersed, well-hidden and able to move rapidly into launch-ready positions, even before an invasion starts.

Prepare Scud batteries to act autonomously and to launch simultaneously. Load Scuds with chemical and biological warheads. Pre-program missiles to target American facilities in Kuwait and Qatar. Target missiles on key Israeli cities in an attempt to evoke a horrendous response from that country and transform the Iraq war into an American-Israeli war against Islam. Target the Shiite population in southern Iraq or the Kurdish population in the north with biological weapons to create a tremendous humanitarian disaster for coalition forces to deal with.

The CENTCOM war planners have no doubt looked at these "worst-case" scenarios in detail for quite some time. Tactics have been tailored to prevent, circumvent or minimize the impact of all of the "wild cards" mentioned above.

Saddam cannot destroy his country's oil fields, electrical power plants or food storage sites by himself, just as he will not be the person that launches any Scud missiles. It will take many of his own people to carry out such evil deeds and obliterate Iraqi's infrastructure.

An aggressive U.S. effort is underway to persuade Iraqi regional commanders to order their troops not to fight and to let the population know that Saddam is their own worst threat. Currently upgraded EC-130 "Commando Solo" aircraft are actively executing a massive multi-media campaign through around-the-clock radio broadcasts and drops of millions of leaflet to create an environment in the Iraqi military that promotes surrender or defection once an invasion starts. Aggressive attempts are being made to convince the military rank and file, already suffering from major morale problems, that fighting for the current regime is not fighting for Iraq. Commanders and men in units controlling weapons of mass destruction are already being told that they will be tried as war criminals if they use their weapons against coalition forces and other nations. There will be continued attempts to persuade Iraqi weapons officers to disobey any orders to launch chemical or biological attacks in the face of an invasion.

If a full-scale war broke out, Iraqi opposition forces in coordination with U.S. Special Forces will attempt to communicate with the Iraqi people and the military in an effort to neutralize them and let them know that coalition forces have quickly gained control of large amounts of territory. There will be an appeal to the patriotism of all Iraqis to help keep the infrastructure of their country intact. The hope is that fewer and fewer people in Iraq want to be on a suicide mission for Saddam Hussein, and that they will instead choose to be part of the movement towards freedom after 23 years of oppression.

Scud hunting missions will be of the highest priority at the onset of hostilities with Iraq. A substantial number of tactical aircraft, ranging from AC-130 gunships receiving live-stream video to Apache Longbow helicopters to F-15E Strike Eagles, all linked to surveillance aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) will have the mission of responding immediately to the threat of a Scud attack. U.S. Special Forces augmented by British SAS forces will play a critical role in the Scud hunt and in quickly securing and protecting most of the oil fields in the country.

Urban warfare is a scenario war fighters do not wish to face. It is dangerous and the risk of heavy casualties is well known. It is therefore more probable that U.S. and coalition forces would surround and besiege any hold-out city, rather than resort to street-by-street fighting. Many days of intense combat and many failed tactics and strategies would have to have occurred before U.S. military leaders decided that U.S. forces should be heavily engaged in the worst-case scenario urban warfare. To avoid this, any U.S. campaign in Iraq is intended to be decisive, swift and psychologically devastating for Iraqi forces. It is hoped that a blitzkrieg attack moving swiftly will have a tremendous snowball effect, rapidly collapsing the regime and ending hostilities.

War planners strive to achieve the best-case scenario. If U.S. tactics and strategies are successfully accomplished, we would see Saddam quickly choked off from any command and control of Iraqi forces in the outlying areas. The Iraqi population in Baghdad would refuse to become protective human shields and turn against the crumbling regime and the Special Republican Guard.

There is consensus in both the military and intelligence community that Saddam enjoys very little trust even at the highest levels in the military and security forces. The probability of Saddam Hussein being taken out by one or more of his own people could increase once war seems imminent. His own worst-case scenario would unfold: an internal coup against him. It is a distinct possibility that his inner circle of generals, in an effort to avoid destruction of their homeland and needless bloodshed, would turn against him and create their own regime change.

The fact remains that no war unfolds as planned, a lot of unknowns exist involving any conflict with Saddam. There will be surprises on both sides. We will surely surprise him and it is likely that there will be surprises headed our way. The risks are out there, but the American forces that may be sent to face those unknowns are well-trained and ready. They will try their utmost to prevent Armageddon in Iraq. Nonetheless, the cost of victory in a military conflict in Iraq is yet to be determined.

Rear Adm. (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, USN CDI Senior Advisor sbaker@cdi.org

Standard Version

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