Military Operations During Ramadan

Military planners will have to make some decisions about the pace and scope of operation Enduring Freedom as the Islamic holy month of Ramadan approaches. High profile military strikes during this period will be an extremely sensitive issue for the constituents among America's Arab/Muslim coalition partners. But even if the United States moderates or limits operations during the holiday, it is likely that the Taliban and Osama bin Laden will not.

The origins of Ramadan date back to the seventh century AD. Muslims believe that, in the deserts outside of Mecca, the angel Gabriel revealed to Muhammad the word of Allah in the form of visions and verses. Sometime around 650, these verses were collected and transcribed as the Koran. More than a billion Muslims worldwide will observe Ramadan, which is characterized by fasting and prayer. Muslims are expected to abstain from all earthly pleasures during daylight hours, including food, drink, tobacco and sex. Devout Muslims gather each night at their mosque to worship and recite the Koran. It is an intensely spiritual time, intended to focus one's devotion on Allah, celebrate the Koran, and foster solidarity among the faithful.

Because the Islamic calendar is lunar rather than solar, Islamic holidays like Ramadan float by 11 days. This year, Ramadan will fall around Nov. 17, shortly before the onset of winter in Afghanistan. It is unlikely that the United States will completely cease operations during Ramadan. The pace of the air campaign will probably subside as the Pentagon tries to avoid collateral casualties. The consequence of accidentally hitting a mosque packed with worshipers during Ramadan would reverberate throughout the Muslim world. It is difficult to imagine how the damage to the coalition could be controlled or minimized.

Indonesia (home to the world largest Islamic population) recently warned that U.S. military strikes over Ramadan would precipitate an "explosive" backlash among Muslim populations. Speaking in Shanghai, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hasan Wirayuda warned: "for countries with large Muslim populations like Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh, prolonged military conflict in Afghanistan will have an effect of destabilizing these countries." Other voices have echoed this sentiment. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said Oct. 22 that "one would hope for restraint during Ramadan, because this would certainly have negative effects in the Muslim world."

In the past, the United States demonstrated some sensitivity about conducting military strikes against Muslim targets during the holiday. In 1998, President Bill Clinton timed operation Desert Fox and strikes on Iraq in such a way as to end a day before Ramadan began. But if the Arab consensus regarding American strikes was problematic in 1998, it is far more so today.

From the standpoint of U.S. military planners, the timing of Ramadan could not be worse. While the United States has troops trained to conduct cold weather operations, it is generally agreed that the harsh Afghan winter will impose limits on their effectiveness. Moreover, the logistical problems of supporting troops in the field will increase as winter weather sets in. Pentagon officials remain sanguine about their ability to fight through the winter, noting that they are better equipped and more mobile than the Taliban. In the past, however, competing forces, including the Soviets, tended to hibernate through the winter.

For these reasons, the Pentagon may emphasize operations over the next weeks designed to consolidate gains before the advent of Ramadan. Already there has been a tactical shift as U.S. planes began flying missions in support of the Northern Alliance. The administration now seems intent of prodding the Afghani opposition group toward Kabul and the strategic northern town of Mazar-e Sharif. The capture of the latter city prior to Ramadan and the onset of winter could alleviate much human suffering while providing an important forward base for future operations.

It is also unlikely that al Qaeda and the Taliban will remain inactive during the holiday. For extremist within the Islamic world, Ramadan may be embellished with political and militant associations. Shortly after his revelation, Muhammad was forced to flee Mecca. He spent the rest of his life trying to liberate the city from non-believers, eventually succeeding shortly before his death in 632. In the eyes of some Islamic extremists, including bin Laden, non-believers once again occupy the Holy Land.

As U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld noted Oct. 22, "history is replete with instances where Muslim nations have fought among themselves or with other countries during various important holidays."

Indeed, Muslim nations have demonstrated a pragmatic willingness to engage in armed conflict during Ramadan, as in the 1973 Yom Kippur war. But this is a different world. The pressures of coalition maintenance for the United States have been apparent since Sept. 11. They will become more so in the days leading to Ramadan.

Sources: Time Magazine, BBC World Service, Washington Post

 

By Dr. Michael Donovan CDI Research Assistant mdonovan@cdi.org

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