European pledges of support will be put to test when Washington unveils its military plans and asks for help. European countries are facing a dilemma: by aligning themselves closely with the United States, they may bring terrorism to their own territory. But by not fully supporting Washington in its time of crisis, Europeans put their defense alliance with the United States in jeopardy. The United States would not look kindly on being unsupported in its hour of need.

Moreover, depending on the terrorists' actual goals, Europeans may not be able to avoid terrorist acts even if they stay out of the U.S. anti-terrorist campaign. If the perpetrators were targeting Western civilization as such rather than the United States, London, Berlin, Paris and other capitals are in as much jeopardy as Washington or New York, especially if the anticipated U.S. military response leads to an escalation of terrorist activities.

Historically, Europe has viewed itself as less of a target. With some exceptions, European states have dealt with "rogue regimes" through diplomatic and economic engagement. Italy is one of Libya's largest trading partners while France has, in recent years, flown humanitarian supplies to Iraq, in open defiance of the United Nations embargo. As a result, Europe has drawn far less ire from radical Islamic groups in the Middle East and North Africa, even though the continent continues to struggle with home-grown terrorism.

Moreover, some European capitals have long served as "safe havens" for radical groups, which refrained from attacking those cities in exchange for being allowed to conduct fundraising and recruitment. This tacit arrangement is already crumbling; British police last week cracked down on suspected militants in the London area, and the German parliament gave its security forces extra money to stop fundraising activities by suspected terrorist groups.

In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist strikes, a number of European allies voiced concern about the nature of the U.S. response. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder warned against military "adventures." The fears stem from Washington's history of retaliatory strikes against terrorists or their sponsors, which often carried more symbolic value than actual military significance. The 1998 U.S. bomb and cruise missile attacks against Osama bin Laden's training camp in Afghanistan and a drug-producing factory in Sudan, for example, had little effect on his organization, and questions persist about how closely linked some of the targets were to the Saudi terrorist. However, the fact that the United States has not carried out a strike more than 10 days after the terrorist attacks indicates that the response — be it military, financial or political — is going to be far more substantive and far-reaching than the 1998 missile strikes.

Given the gravity of the situation, no NATO ally will completely reject cooperation with Washington, no matter what their reservations about U.S. actions. Allied intelligence services already appear involved in robust information-sharing. But the Europeans also began drawing lines in the sand reflecting their specific concerns about upcoming U.S. operations.

 
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Law Enforcement Actions:

Many European countries have already taken steps to stop fundraising and recruiting activities of suspected terrorist groups operating on European territory. On Sept. 19, Germany approved new security measures, including a ban on religious groups that are deemed to be extremist. The alleged perpetrators of the attacks on New York and Washington lived in Germany for years, and German authorities fear that hundreds more "sleepers" trained by Osama bin Laden live in the country.

French authorities already have launched a full investigation into possible participation by groups active in France in the terrorist attacks in the United States. French counter-intelligence officers arrested seven people thought to be associates of bin Laden on Friday. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, has called for reform of the international financial system to clamp down on "terrorist money" by preventing money laundering and movements of "suspect cash." The 15-member European Union moved to streamline arrest and extradition procedures for terrorists among its member countries.

 
Special Forces:

Initial reports indicate that U.S. military plans focus on a special forces operation against terrorist networks. A number of European countries, most notably Germany, Britain, and France, possess first-rate special forces units that may potentially take part in any operation. The German daily Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung reported that Germany has offered participation of its Kommando Spezial Kraefte (KSK) units, albeit only in a limited role. The units would help rescue Western relief workers held in Taliban prisons.

The British press reports that the country's Special Air Service (SAS) is already planning joint operations with U.S. special forces units, such as Delta Force and Navy SEALs (Sea, Air, Land Service). The British government has offered virtually unconditional support, including military, to U.S.-led anti-terrorist operations.

 
Intelligence:

During the planning stage of military operations, the arguably most effective form of support from Europe is intelligence sharing. The United Kingdom is already providing intelligence on alleged supporters of Osama bin Laden in Britain and elsewhere. The country's foreign and domestic security services, MI6 and MI5 have both joined the operation.

Similarly, the French counter-espionage service, the Direction de la surveillance du territoire (DST), in conjunction with other intelligence and law-enforcement agencies, is reported to be gathering and exchanging information on known opponents of the United States in France.

 
Logistics:

A number of European allies have bases in the region that could be used to support conventional military operations. The United Kingdom bases Tornado and Jaguar aircraft in Kuwait and Incirlik in Turkey. The Royal Air Force also has a base at Akrotiri in south-west Cyprus. The United States operates several bases in the United Kingdom, as well as on the British Indian Ocean territory of Diego Garcia.

The United States already flies combat operations against Iraq from the Incirlik base in Turkey. During the Kosovo war, allied warplanes made heavy use of the Aviano base in Italy. Spain also announced on Thursday that it is making its military bases available to the United States without preconditions.

 
Conventional Forces:

The importance of potential European contributions of conventional forces is uncertain - the United States is unlikely to launch a conventional war, at least in the near future. Moreover, U.S. capabilities dwarf those of its allies. Allies could, however, participate in precision bombing and missile strikes, should they take place. France and the United Kingdom have aircraft capable of precision bombing, although their stocks of such munitions are limited.

The United Kingdom has submarines equipped with conventional, land-attack cruise missiles (Tomahawks), but it is unclear how long they would take to move closer to the expected areas of operation in the Middle East. By coincidence, a large combined Royal Navy/Royal Air Force and Army group is in the Arabian Sea near Oman, participating in joint exercises with the Omani Navy. The group includes an aircraft carrier, numerous destroyers, frigates and submarines as well as elements of the 1st Armoured Division and more than 50 aircraft.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder declared that Germany is willing to use military forces alongside the United States in the fight against terrorism. The German parliament, the Bundestag, approved a resolution on Thursday allowing for use of German military units in any anti-terrorist campaign.

 
STATEMENTS:

	"A fixation exclusively on military measures would be fatal," German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. "European leaders flock to Washington after attacks," Reuters, Sept. 19, 2001.
	"Germany is ready to take risks, even of military nature, but we are not ready for any adventures," German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. "Steuererhöhung für Kampf gegen Terror," Die Welt, Sept. 19, 2001.
	"My impression is that [troops are] not called for. Rather, what is required is support of a logistic nature," German President Johannes Rau. "Europe fears modern crusade," The Guardian, Sept. 17, 2001.
	"We mustn't under-react, but nor must we over-react," German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. "Europe fears modern crusade," The Guardian, Sept. 17, 2001.
	"France is prepared and available to discuss all means to fight and eradicate this evil," President Jacques Chirac. "Chirac Offers Bush 'Total Solidarity'," The Guardian, Sept. 20, 2001.
	"Armed action is only one of the ways of responding. What is necessary is a way that does not provoke other elements of instability," French Defense Minister Alain Richard. "Europe fears modern crusade," The Guardian, Sept. 17, 2001.
	"There has then to be an agenda that we can strike at an international level that involves the whole of the international community in dismantling the machinery of international terrorism, how it's financed, how these people move about the world, the countries that then harbor them and give them help," British Prime Minister Tony Blair. CNN, Sept. 19, 2001.

By Tomas Valasek
CDI Senior Analyst
tvalasek@cdi.org

 
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