Bolton stated, "The United States believes that Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort. Cuba has provided dual-use biotechnology to other rogue states."¹  These remarks repeat, word for word, allegations made in congressional testimony in March by Carl Ford, undersecretary of state for intelligence and research. ² 

Bolton and Ford's allegations are not new. Experts generally agree that with the third largest biotechnology industry in the third world and as a major exporter of related infrastructure, products and expertise, Cuba could have an offensive biological weapons program, and could help other nations with their programs. Cuba's capabilities are particularly troubling given Fidel Castro's open relations with 'rogue' nations, especially Iran. But evidence that Castro has exploited this industry for nefarious purposes is thin. Even the New York Times used questionable information in its reporting on the issue, quoting a section of the Federation of American Scientists web site that has since been pulled off the site. ³ 

A former KGB agent who has defected to the United States, Ken Alibek, briefly mentioned Cuba's bioweapons program in a book in 1999.⁴  The book said only that another Russian scientist who had visited Cuba believed that Cuba had an offensive biological weapons program. Similar claims have been made by Cuban defectors, according to press reports, but have never been publicly confirmed.⁵  Suspicions about Cuba's bioweapons capability stem in part from Cuba's accusations that the United States has used biological weapons against its crops and people 12 times - accusations that have generally been dismissed as absurd. True or not, some say these alleged attacks might have driven Cuba to seek biological weapons.

But generally, the allegations against Cuba seem to have been too sketchy to make their way into official U.S. reports. Which raises the question: why the renewed interest now?

New secret intelligence may validate Bolton's accusations. But if there is such intelligence, few have seen it, even in the military and intelligence communities. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has not seen it, as he told reporters on May 9⁶  . And several anonymous senior military and intelligence officials with access to classified information have undercut Bolton's remarks, with one calling them "way overstated" and based on shoddy evidence.⁷ 

The former commander in chief of U.S. Southern Command, Gen. (Ret.) Charles Wilhelm USMC, whose purview included Cuba, told National Public Radio, "During my three year tenure, from September 1997 until September 2000 at Southern Command, I didn't receive a single report or a single piece of evidence that would have led me to the conclusion that Cuba was in fact developing, producing or weaponizing biological or chemical agents.⁸  "

In his speech, Bolton took issue with a 1998 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency that concluded that Cuba was not a major military threat to the United States.⁹  Although the report mentioned Cuba's biotechnology industry as cause for concern, according to Bolton, the report downplayed the Cuban threat because a Cuban spy helped write it - Ana Belen Montes, a former U.S. analyst now convicted of espionage. But as recently as January, with Montes safely in prison, another official U.S. government report made no mention of Cuba's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) efforts.

The CIA's "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Chemical Munitions," released in January, mentions nine countries who acquired or sought WMD and three countries who are "key suppliers."¹⁰  Cuba is not mentioned at all. In fact, since the CIA was required by law in 1997 to start submitting this report every six months, no issue has ever mentioned Cuba.

Why not? One possibility is mentioned by the report, which states: "We have excluded countries that already have substantial WMD programs…as well as countries that demonstrated little WMD acquisition activity of concern." No one has asserted that Cuba has a substantial WMD arsenal. It is then likely that the CIA never included Cuba's WMD acquisition efforts in its report because, in their opinion, it demonstrated little "WMD acquisition activity of concern." On the other hand, the portion of the report on Cuba might be left out of the unclassified version.

That latter interpretation is bolstered by the likelihood that the United States has previously accused of Cuba of violating the Biological Weapons Convention, if only by inference. Every year, under the Biological Weapons Convention, which Cuba has signed and ratified, the United States has accused several nations of developing biological weapons in violation of the treaty. The United States has specifically named some of these countries, but has not revealed others. Analysts speculated that the missing nations could include Cuba, Taiwan, Israel or Indonesia, all of which have been accused of having biological weapons.¹¹  As recently as January, Bolton declined to say whether Cuba was one of the nations the United States had in mind. His recent accusations, however, indicate that Cuba is one the three.¹²  But if Cuba was not mentioned before, why mention it now? And why do so without giving evidence?

Following a growing effort in the United States to reexamine relations with Cuba, former President Jimmy Carter is leading a delegation to Cuba from May 12 to May 17. The Bush administration is due in the coming weeks to release both a review of U.S. policy toward Cuba and its report on state sponsors of terrorism, which will include Cuba. The timing of Bolton's remarks raises suspicions that they are intended to undercut a burgeoning desire on both sides for a rapprochement between the two states and to justify a more hawkish policy toward Cuba. In the days since Bolton's speech, editorials, academics, and the Cubans themselves have accused the Bush administration of playing politics with the war on terrorism and called for proof of the purported Cuban bioweapons program.

The risk of states allowing terrorists to acquire weapons of mass destruction is the most severe threat we face, as President Bush has said. If Cuba - or any other nation - has such weapons and proliferates them it is cause for allegations and actions. But it is reasonable for frightened Americans to ask what lies behind such allegations, and to ask why the threat is suddenly being showcased. If American credibility is critical in the fight against terrorism, the United States ought not to make allegations it is not prepared to substantiate. Allowing the perception to flourish that politics is biasing the war on terrorism would undermine that credibility and deflect attention from the places where dangers lie.