On Dec. 6, near Bonn, Germany, representatives of four major Afghani factions/ethnic groups reached agreement on what the world hopes will be the road to a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan.

The agreement, worked out under the auspices of the United Nations and with pressure from all of Afghanistan's immediate neighbors, called for three major political steps.

The first is the formation of an interim governing administration of 28 men and two women chaired by Hamid Karzai, a prominent Pashtun tribal leader and a distant relative of the deposed king, Mohammad Zahir Shah.  The interim council assumed power on Dec. 22 as the "repository of Afghan sovereignty" and claimed Afghanistan's seat in the United Nations General Assembly.  (A list of positions and incumbents is in the box below. Women run Public Health and Women's Affairs.)

Second, a special 21-person commission is to be established to prepare for an emergency loya jirga, the traditional assembly of tribal elders, to be convened in six months.  This body will select a transitional head of state and create a broad-based, representative interim government to rule for a period not to exceed 24 months, at which time elections for a permanent government will be held.  Expectations are that the former king will preside over this group.

Third, not later than 18 months after the interim government assumes power, another loya jirga will be held to draw up a new constitution, hopefully to be ready by the time of the elections.  The 1964 constitution under which the former king ruled will be reinstated until a new one is adopted.

Other organizations critical to any government that are established by the agreement include a central bank, a supreme court, and a judicial commission charged with rebuilding a justice system that incorporates "Islamic principles, international standards, the rule of law, and Afghan legal traditions."  Some reports suggest that Burrhanuddin Rabbani, Afghanistan's pre-Taliban president, may be appointed to the court.

The interim cabinet chaired by Karzai has 11 Pashtuns, eight Tajiks, five Hazaras, three Uzbeks, and three from other ethnic groups.  Seventeen of the 30 members are from the Northern Alliance, which also holds three key portfolios: defense, foreign affairs, and interior.

As CDI’ s earlier report, Political and Military Power in Post-Taliban Afghanistan: Who are the Players? (Pre-Bonn) [http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/afghan-politics.cfm] shows, not all interested parties have fared equally well in securing posts in the new administration.  Although the main Afghan ethnic groups and factions (Northern Alliance, predominantly Tajik, Uzbek, and Hasara; the Rome Process or royalists; the Cyprus Group, backed by Iran; and the Peshawar Front, backed by Pakistan) are represented in the interim Cabinet, not all the key players appear entirely happy with events, with some being left almost entirely out in the cold.  For example:

Finally, the agreement called for an international peacekeeping force to enter Kabul, and perhaps other cities eventually, to help create a zone of neutrality in which all factions and ethnic groups can work without fear.  This meant that the Northern Alliance had to cede control of the capital, but they and the other victorious factions outside of Kabul were not required to surrender their arms.  In this regard, the agreement called for creation of a new national army under centralized control.  A difficult task under the best of circumstances, given Afghani factionalism and powerful warlords, it will be even more daunting if all sides, including ex-Taliban, are permitted to retain all their weaponry indefinitely.

Interim Council (alphabetical by post)

 

By Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.) CDI Chief of Research dsmith@cdi.org

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