#4
Date: Thu, 16 Sep 1999
From: Elizabeth Reisch
Subject: Summary of Albright's speech at the Carnegie Endowment
Albright: Russia is Not Ours to Lose
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright spoke to a gathering of 120
people at the Carnegie Endowment today about U.S. policy toward Russia.
Following is a summary of her remarks.
Responding to critics who charge that the United States has lost
Russia, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said, "The suggestion that
Russia is ours to lose is arrogant; the suggestion that Russia is lost
is simply wrong." She pointed out that throughout all of the crises in
Russia in recent years -- Yeltsin's armed confrontation with the Duma in
1993, the war in Chechnya, the financial crisis of August 1998, the
disagreement over Kosovo, and now investigations into money laundering
and corruption -- a chorus has arisen to pronounce the death of the new
Russia. Each time, she said, "the Russian people have refused to attend
the funeral." Drawing upon the words of Lev Tolstoy, who wrote that
"the strongest of warriors are these two -- time and patience," Albright
advocated for the United States to continue to support Russia's
transition with vision and persistence. A hostile and dismissive policy
toward Russia would only risk re-creating our enemy, she said.
Albright stressed that Russian reform is "a work in progress."
Since the Cold War ended, she said, first President Bush and then
President Clinton have pursued two basic goals in relations with
Russia. The first is to work to reduce Cold War arsenals in both
countries, to stop the proliferation of nuclear and conventional arms,
and to create a stable and undivided Europe. The second is to support
Russia's effort to transform its political, economic and social
institutions. While acknowledging that neither of these goals has been
fully achieved, she argued that neither has been lost. Despite
turbulence and "even a midair turnaround" [referring to Primakov's
decision to cancel his visit to Washington mid-flight to protest NATO
strikes on Belgrade], the U.S.-Russian relationship is still aloft, she
said.
Helping to transform Russia into a functioning pluralist society
with a market economy is a "Herculean task," she said, but not a
hopeless cause. Albright called attention to events of the last ten
years that the world could not have imagined in 1990: the removal of
Russian forces from the Baltics and Central Europe, a formal Russian
partnership with NATO and the European Union, and Russian participation
with Americans in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Kosovo. She
juxtaposed these positive developments with some of the worst episodes
of the Cold War: proxy wars that destroyed lives on every continent,
barbed wire stretched across parts of Europe, and gulags. "Leaders in
Washington and Moscow have no greater responsibility," she said, "than
to ensure that we do not return to that time or any variation of it."
The uncertainty over Russia's future course is largely due to the
flood of opposing forces that have been unleashed since 1991. "Currents
of free enterprise, initiative, and greater freedom compete with those
of corruption and crime," Albright noted, while "impulses toward
integration and openness vie with tendencies toward isolation and
alienation." The United States should support the positive currents,
she said, while recognizing that the result will be "distinctively
Russian."
On the recent spate of bombings in Russia, Albright expressed the
Administration's shock and anger at these "callous and cowardly acts of
murder." She stressed the Administration's desire to see Russian
authorities "bring the perpetrators to justice by constitutional means."
Corruption in Russia
Albright refuted the notion that the problem of corruption
originated with post-Cold War democratic reforms. Corruption, she
stated, flourished under the Czars and thrived under the Soviets, but as
a state monopoly. "The problem now," she said, "is that Russia has gone
from a system with too many bad rules to one with not enough good
rules." As a result of this absence of a rule of law, she continued,
"foreign investors have hesitated, capital has taken flight, the
influential few have distorted markets, and the economy has sagged."
Albright defended the Clinton Administration's record on fighting
corruption in Russia. She highlighted the work of the U.S. Agency for
International Development's rule of law project. She also recalled
Administration officials' statements against corruption in Russia,
including President Clinton in 1995 in Moscow, when he called for "a
market based on law, not lawlessness," and Vice President Gore in 1997
when he pressed for enactment of money-laundering legislation.
Unfortunately, she said, "the response from Russian authorities has not
been adequate." It is time for the Yeltsin government to make fighting
corruption a priority, she warned, because the "tentacles of Russian
organized crime have spread far beyond the nation's borders."
Responding to some Russians who attribute the furor over corruption
to a desire by the West to embarrass Moscow, and to electoral politics
in the United States, Albright said that such scenarios are
"fantasies." She urged Russia to fully cooperate with investigations
into corruption, including money laundering and the use of IMF funds,
"no matter where or to whom the evidence leads." She suggested several
concrete measures that must be taken to curb corruption, including the
enactment of anti-crime and money laundering legislation, financial
sector reforms that stress transparency and accountability, and judicial
training and advice on fair and efficient tax collection.
Albright stated that the United States should not respond to the
current allegations of high-level corruption by reducing aid for
programs in Russia, as Congress is proposing with its 25-30 percent cut
in the Administration's request for FY00. At the same time, she said,
the United States should not support further multilateral assistance to
Russia "unless fully adequate safeguards are in place."
Democracy Promotion
One area of assistance in which Albright said the United States
cannot afford to waver is supporting the democratic principles that
underlie the elections to the Duma scheduled for December 19 and for
the presidency next summer. To this end, USAID will continue its work
with non-governmental organizations to help provide the infrastructure
for elections that are free and fair, she said. "Nothing," she warned,
"could do more damage to Russia, at home or abroad, than a failure to
observe the constitutional process." Moreover, "nothing could do more to
cement Russia's place among the world's democracies than the
constitutional election and inauguration of Boris Yeltsin's successor,"
she said.
Albright challenged those who say that grassroots democracy
assistance cannot affect much in a nation as large as Russia: "A small
difference has the potential to make all the difference when the cause
is just and the time is right." She noted that democratic habits are
among the world's most "benign addictions" and are starting to spread in
Russia. Abandoning U.S. assistance to those committed to democracy and
human rights in Russia would be hypocritical, she said: "We championed
liberty through five decades of Cold War, so we should not desert
liberty's cause in Russia now."
The U.S. Arms Control Agenda with Russia
Albright expounded on U.S. assistance to Russia aimed at lowering
their nuclear arsenals and preventing the proliferation of nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons. She highlighted a number of
initiatives that the Administration has undertaken since 1992, including
the deactivation of almost 5000 nuclear warheads in the former Soviet
Union, the strengthening of security of nuclear weapons and materials at
more than 100 sites in Russia, and the purchase of more than sixty tons
of highly enriched uranium that otherwise "could have been used by
terrorists or outlaw states." The Administration's Expanded Threat
Reduction Initiative builds upon these efforts, she said. The
Initiative includes measures to help Russia tighten export controls,
improve security over its arsenal, and provide opportunities for more
than 30,000 former Soviet weapons scientists to participate in peaceful
commercial and research ventures.
One of the contentious issues in the U.S.-Russian relationship is
disagreement over the National Missile Defense system, which the United
States has been developing and testing in advance of President Clinton's
decision on deployment next summer. Should the United States decide to
go forward with deployment, Albright said, the United States would need
to make changes to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM). While the
Administration has emphasized to the Russians that the "changes would be
consistent with the underlying purposes of the Treaty," and that
cooperating on strategic defense will make both countries less
vulnerable to new international threats, the Russians resist any changes
or amendments to ABM, she said. Albright underscored the dilemma by
saying that Russia cannot have it both ways: "They cannot fail to crack
down effectively on the transfer of advanced technologies and then
express surprise when we insist on protecting ourselves against threats
fueled by those transfers."
Asked about Russian technology transfers to Iran, Albright said, "I
think that there has been some progress on this subject, but not
enough." She noted that when Clinton met with Russian Prime Minister
Putin in Auckland, Australia, they talked about the problems posed by
the transfer of nuclear technology to states like Iran. Cooperation on
this issue, Albright said, "is one of the essential marks of cooperation
in our relationship and we will continue to hold them accountable."
- Summary by Elizabeth Reisch, research assistant with the Russian and
Eurasian Program.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone 202-483-7600
Fax 202-483-1840
www.ceip.org
#6
Russia: Complexities Make State Of Emergency Almost Impossible
By Sophie Lambroschini
As Russia's wave of bombings continues, the country's political circles are
rife with speculation that the Kremlin may be contemplating declaring a
general state of emergency. But while authorities have been able to put some
strict security measures into effect, both legal and political considerations
make it close to impossible for President Boris Yeltsin to legally declare a
state of emergency. RFE/RL's correspondent in Moscow, Sophie Lambroschini,
explores the legal complexities of Russia's fight against terrorism.
Moscow, 16 September 1999 (RFE/RL) -- In the past two weeks, Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin has pledged that no general state of emergency would
be proclaimed in response to a series of deadly bombings in Russia. But three
months before scheduled parliamentary elections and less than a year before a
presidential vote, rumors to that effect remain quite hard to quash.
Yesterday, the Russian daily "Segodnya" said the panic sown by the bombs,
which have killed some 285 people since August 31, has created an atmosphere
in which the public would look favorably on a state of emergency. The paper
said, too, that such a measure would be politically profitable for the
currently unpopular president, Boris Yeltsin. In particular, "Segodnya"
noted, emergency measures would give Yeltsin the possibility of canceling the
coming elections, limiting the activities of political parties, and
introducing strict censorship in the media.
Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said earlier this week that he had
seen presidential administration documents that could impose a state of
emergency throughout the country. But Russian legislators say the present
situation does not provide Yeltsin with either the possibility or the right
to declare a general emergency.
The legislators say that's because the conditions and limits of a state of
emergency are all spelled out in a draft law that has not been adopted by the
State Duma (lower house). And to fill the legal vacuum left by the unpassed
law, the country's 1993 constitution says Russia must abide by Soviet-era
laws.
The last Soviet law on a state of emergency was passed in 1991. It allows for
the suspension of many basic rights and freedoms. The law provides for
canceling elections, introducing censorship, and allowing the suspension of
media. It also makes possible a ban on demonstrations, strikes and political
parties, and allows for the expulsion of people disrupting public order.
Duma deputy Aleksei Popov, a lawyer specializing in public law, says the
Soviet law treats a state of emergency as a last resort to be imposed only
when other measures are not sufficient.
Popov calls the 1991 text "quite clear" in allowing for a state of emergency
to be declared in several cases that resemble the present situation in
Russia's North Caucasus. He cites as examples attempts to overthrow
constitutional order, conflicts among national minorities, and threats to
people's safety. But Popov stresses that under the 1991 law the state of
emergency would apply only to that part of Russia where such threats are
present. He says that means that today "a state of emergency in the regions
bordering Chechnya could be imposed. But in the rest of the country," he
adds, "it would not apply--not even in Moscow."
According to Popov, therefore, Yeltsin does not have the legal right to
cancel or postpone the upcoming Duma elections. Under the Russian
Constitution, Yeltsin is allowed to introduce a state of emergency in the
whole country or in certain parts of it. But he has to ask the governors and
heads of regional parliaments of the Federation Council, Russia's upper
house, to confirm it. Popov says: "The atmosphere in Russia would really have
to be extreme for the senators to accept measures that would limit their own
powers."
Yet some politicians warn that the 1991 Soviet law may not be valid anymore,
an interpretation which would create a legal vacuum on emergency measures.
Former Security Council Secretary and Duma deputy Ivan Rybkin says the
legitimacy of the Soviet state of emergency law is disputable because it was
abrogated by new Russian legislation that partially contradicts it.
Whatever the validity of the Soviet state of emergency law may be, other
Russian politicians note that the government could legally introduce extreme
measures that partially resemble a state of emergency by using other
legislation.
Senator Sergei Sobyanin, deputy chairman of the Federation Council's legal
affairs committee, says that a law on fighting terrorism that was adopted
last year does allow authorities to "limit citizens' freedom of movement and
to introduce limits on the press." Moreover, he says, this is possible
without any parliamentary or other institutional authorization.
According to "Segodnya," Putin has referred to the 1998 law as a text that
could be used by the government. The paper said the prime minister believed
it made the proclamation of a state of emergency unnecessary.
Senator Sobyanin said the security measures announced by Moscow Mayor Yurii
Luzhkov in the past few days "seem to be inspired by this law." He was
apparently referring to the mayor's order making the city off-limits to
people who don't have an official authorization of residence.
Others say, however, that by imposing the limitations permitted in last
year's law on fighting terrorism, the authorities might actually be bending
the law. Popov, for one, says that "any reference to the [1998] law on
terrorism is completely ridiculous. That law, for example, applies to a
building or a street where terrorists may be hiding. But it does not apply to
a whole city or the whole country."
#7
ALLOCATIONS TO DEFENSE ORDER WILL INCREASE 1.5 TIMES IN 2000 - DEPUTY PM
MOSCOW. Sept 15 (Interfax) - Allocations to the state defense order
will be increased 1.5 times in 2000 as compared with 1999, Russian
Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov told journalists on Wednesday.
He said the federal authorities are guaranteeing the allocation of
the necessary resources for purchasing modern weapons.
He also said that the most up-to date individual protection and
security systems for soldiers and officers are available in Russia.
"There are also upgraded fire arms and other types of weapons. Dagestan
does not experience any shortages of modern weapons. They have
helicopters and the most up-to-date aircraft," Klebanov said.
In Dagestan, "the Russian military have been confronted with
international terrorism, not with Chechen terrorists," he said, adding
that the state defense order must be oriented to local conflicts."
He described the federal troops' operations in Dagestan as "good"
in terms of strategy and tactics. "The one-to-ten losses are a good
achievement as compared with what we had in Chechnya. The present-day
tactics have been changed to reduce the loss of life to a minimum," he
said.
He said that priority in 2000 must be given to increasing the state
defense order and to the purchase of the most up-to-date weapons, "with
due account taken of the Chechen factor."
"Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in the State Duma that a
quarantine zone must be created around Chechnya. This zone will be
effective if efficient motion detection systems are made available and
are set up in mountain gorges and valleys. We have such systems," he
said, adding that such means don't need to be purchased abroad.
He said that during his recent meeting with President Boris
Yeltsin, no replacements or appointments were discussed. "Generally
speaking, it is the president's right to make appointments he thinks
proper," said Klebanov.
He denied reports about the dismissal of Rosvooruzheniye general
director Alexei Ogaryov.
He said that, shortly after reports were circulated, Ogaryov
offered his resignation, he got in touch with Ogaryov who denied this
information.
#9
Russia Lacks Money to Eliminate Chemical Weapons.
MOSCOW, September 15 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia's financial difficulties threaten
further implementation of the federal programme for elimination of chemical
weapons, Zinovy Pak, general director of the Russian ammunition agency, said
on Wednesday.
Russia currently possesses 40,000 tons of chemical weapons, Pak told a news
conference in the Itar-Tass headquarters. The programme, which is to be
implemented before the year 2009, envisages two stages of their elimination.
First, Russia is to get rid of 7,500 tons of vesicant gases, then of 32,500
tones of phosphorous gases which are used in missiles and ground troops
artillery shells and aviation ammunition.
The programme envisages spending of 600 million dollars yearly for the
elimination of chemical weapons, while only from 320 to 330 million dollars
are effectively spent for this purpose, Pak said.
However Russia can enhance effectiveness of the programme's implementation in
several ways, he went on. It can "change the technology of elimination,
conduct scientific and research works and tests, or attract financing from
extra-budget sources," Pak said.
#10
Russian Blasts Seen in Context of Terrorism Worldwide
Rossiyskaya Gazeta
14 September 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Nikolay Paklin under "Sore Spot" rubric: "The World
Rebuffs Terrorism. What About Russia?"
Paris-Milan -- Reality has proved more terrible
than could have been imagined. Terrorism of a merciless, fanatical, base
kind has burst into the very heart of Russia -- Moscow. The terrorists
struck their blow not at the authorities against which, presumably, they
are fighting but at the most ordinary people, who are far removed from
war or politics.
They caused explosions, separated by short intervals of time, in
thoroughly civilian facilities -- an underground shopping mall near the
Kremlin and two apartment blocks. There are dozens of dead and hundreds
of maimed and wounded.
There has been a turning point in people's consciousness. They used to
regard the war as going on somewhere far away in the North Caucasus. Now
they have seen the war in the center of Russia. Moscow is the
battleground today; it may be any other Russian city tomorrow. [passage
omitted on history of Russian, Algerian, and Palestinian terrorism]
Nowadays, however, terrorist organizations formed deep underground -- not so
much on the historical territory of Palestine as in neighboring Islamic
countries -- no longer express the Palestinians' national interests. They
lead their own internal lives, often acting in the interests of various
Muslim billionaires such as Bin-Ladin, the well-known inspirer of
international terrorism. Hiding behind the green banner of Islam, they
often wage war against their fellow believers, trying to impose their own
will on them by force. Events in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of
Soviet forces provided graphic confirmation of this. We have witnessed a
rare historical event: One Russian Federation component -- Dagestan --
has been subjected to outright aggression by another component --
Chechnya. In both components most of the inhabitants are Muslims. The
blame for this aggression lies not only with the leaders of the terrorist
units -- Basayev and Khattab -- but also with the Chechen authorities.
[passage omitted on terrorism in Ireland, Spain, Italy, and France]
Experience shows that combating terrorism, whether "homegrown" or imported,
is extremely difficult. As a rule, the law and order organs and the secret
services plant agents in terrorist "brigades" and "columns." By obtaining
advance information about the terrorists' schemes, they successfully
avert crimes and destroy terrorist organizations. Police operations have
made it possible to subdue the wave of terrorism in Germany. The
terrorists have been pacified in Italy and France. At the same time the
authorities are trying to start a dialogue with the terrorists' political
organizations. This provides at least a "truce" and so reduces the number
of victims. A state cannot coexist with terrorism, be it of a political,
religious, criminal, ethnic, or other nature. But it is virtually
impossible to eradicate terrorism by means of the power departments
alone. Germany's experience has demonstrated that terrorism can be
crushed; people will come to realize its danger for all members of
society without exception and will give the state effective help in
combating terrorists.
#11
Moscow Times
September 16, 1999
SEASON OF DISCONTENT: Bombs Offer Russia Slice of Chechen Life
By Andrei Piontkovsky
Gangster State" -- that was the heading over a recent Newsweek article about
Russia. We didn't like it much. "Can you really cast a shadow over a whole
people and a whole government on the basis of a few separate and unrelated
and not always reliable facts?" our eggheads fairly asked after reading the
Newsweek article. For us, eggheads and lunkheads alike, it's much more
comfortable to call somebody else a gangster state. Like Chechnya, for
instance.
Nobody likes the Chechens. The common cry from the pages of newspapers and
the screens of televisions concerning Chechnya is to "mercilessly destroy
it," to "blow it to bits once and for all," to "plow it over and turn it into
a parking lot." Quite typical, and justified, was the recent prodding by
Nezavisimaya Gazeta's editor Vitaly Tretyakov for Russians to have a
"shocked" and "fighting" reaction to the "insolent and unspeakably inhumane
bombing of an apartment building in Moscow."
But there are things that we don't want to think about, things that the laws
of psychological defense dictate we crowd out of our minds. As I write this,
it is still not clear who is responsible for the blasts in Moscow that have
brought down two apartment buildings in less that a week. But then we do know
who is responsible for the "insolent and unspeakably inhumane bombing" of
apartment buildings in the Chechen capital of Grozny from 1994 to 1996.
Thousands of innocent people died as a result of aerial bomb raids and
artillery shellings. Their deaths were no less terrible than those in Moscow.
Bombs are raining on Chechen villages even today. While this conscious and
pitiless bombardment continues to kill peaceful citizens of Chechnya, can we
really expect to be viewed any differently by the Chechens than we view
Shamil Basayev or Khattab? Russia shouldn't kid itself with myths about
"surgical strikes at terrorist bases."
But to those who would still doubt the nature of the feelings of Chechens
toward Russians I would recommend the writings of a Russian officer who was a
participant in that eternal war with the Chechens. It is shocking but
nonetheless required reading for anyone with the authority to make Russian
policy decisions in the Caucasus. One hundred and fifty years ago, this
officer wrote the following lines after another cleansing campaign in the
mountain villages of the Caucasus: "The elders gathered on the square and,
squatting, discussed their circumstances. The sensation experienced by all
the Chechens from the smallest to the greatest was stronger than hate. It
wasn't hate, but the denial of even calling these Russian dogs people, and
such an aversion, disgust and incomprehension of the absurd cruelty of these
creatures that the desire to eliminate them, like the desire to eliminate a
rat or a poisonous spider, was as natural a sensation as the sense of
self-preservation."
The officer was Leo Tolstoy and this is from chapter 17 of his "Hadji Murat."
There is only one thing that would force the Chechens to become citizens of
Russia - the complete destruction of any Chechen capable of holding a gun.
Technically, we are capable of grasping such a victory. But are we prepared
for such a "final solution" to the Chechen question?
We, Russians and Chechens, have veered too far into mutual hatred and mutual
atrocities. We have only two ways out. Either we live apart, or we die
together in the name of our territorial integrity.
#13
Excerpt
Western Press Review: Terrorism In Russia, New EC Commission
By Joel Blocker and Anthony Georgieff
Prague, 16 September 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Western press commentary today is much
concerned again with the effects of a continuing wave of terrorist bombings
in Russia -- capped this morning by a fifth lethal blast, this time in the
Rostov region south of Moscow. There is also considerable comment on the
European Union's new Executive Commission, confirmed yesterday by the EU
Parliament in Strasbourg.
WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE: Bombing attacks must not obscure need to find new
policy for the Caucasus
The Wall Street Journal Europe says that the Russian bombings pose two
questions: "Can the government deal with the terrorist threat [without
impinging] on the rule of law, such as it exists in Russia? And given the
instinct to blame Trans-Caucasus Muslims, will Moscow become even more brutal
in trying to suppress separatists in Dagestan and Chechnya?"
The paper writes: "On the first count, the Kremlin's response has so far been
level-headed. The government and Kremlin have denied any plans to use the
bomb attacks...as an excuse to declare a state of emergency, much less cancel
the December parliamentary elections." But the WSJ adds: "All clarity of
thought seems to disappear...when it comes to the Northern Caucasus.
...Whatever the truth [of the assumption that Chechen rebels are directing
the bombings], the Kremlin's response has been to step up actions in Chechnya
in a way that is bound to further the problem there."
The editorial concludes: "Nobody will fault the resolve to be tough on
terrorism. But Russia's leaders will not be wise if they let the bombing
obscure the need to find a new policy for the Caucasus, one that recognizes
the futility of sheer force to resolve the conflict."
LOS ANGELES TIMES: Russia must not overreact
The Los Angeles Times warns that "Russia must not overreact" to the bombings.
Like the WSJ, the California daily notes that "the threat of domestic
terrorism always puts the rule of law at some risk." It adds: "The challenge
for Russia is to meet this crisis without recourse to regressive measures."
The LAT editorial urges that "timetables for the scheduled elections
[including a presidential vote next June] should not be changed -- first
because postponement isn't warranted, second because Russia urgently needs a
parliament more effective than the one it has now and a new president with a
broader base of popular support."
The paper sums up: "The terrorism danger can be overcome without sacrificing
the gains Russia has made toward representative rule."
BERLINSKE TIDENDE: Terror attacks have put Russia under new kind of pressure
In Denmark, the daily Berlingske Tidende says in an editorial today:
"Russia's democracy has not developed much during the decade that has passed
since the collapse of communism, and the recent wave of terror attacks has
put it under a new kind of pressure. In addition," the paper says, "the
series of bombings has also provided new fodder for gossip for the always
very active Russian rumor market, where conspiracy theorists are now having a
field day."
"But," the editorial continues, "nothing so far suggests that either
President Boris Yeltsin or the military will use the situation to declare a
state of emergency or attempt some kind of coup d'etat. Such a coup," it
adds, "could hardly succeed under the present circumstances [while] Yeltsin,
despite all the criticism of his rule -- both at home and abroad -- has
always stood by his democratic principles in critical situations."
The paper also says: "Nothing is certain yet about the bombings, but it is
surely possible that there is a relationship between the terrorist attacks
and the conflict between Russia and the separatist movements in the Caucasus.
...The Caucasian separatists should understand that the use of terror will
not further their independence aims. ...Most Russians opposed the war in
Chechnya," the paper concludes. "But now the hatred against the 'Black
Faces,' as the Caucasians are called in Moscow...has grown."
AFTENPOSTEN: Terror, war in the Caucasus and corruption could provoke
countrywide crisis
The Norwegian daily Aftenposten runs a commentary by Halvor Tjoern that says:
"Collective anxiety has never been so widespread in Russia over the past 10
years as it is now. No one can go to bed and be sure he will wake up alive
the next morning. No one knows what sort of weapons the terrorists will use
the next time they strike: poison gas, car bombs, or hand grenades."
The commentary continues: "While Muscovites continue to be [a major] target
for the bombs, a real war is going on in the outer reaches of the country.
Every day the media report that this or that portion of the federation has
been 'purged of terrorists.' This war [in the Caucasus] has become permanent,
something no one, not even the military, can bring to an end."
Tjoern also says: "The terrorist crisis has made other major Russian news --
such as the extent of corruption in the Kremlin or the squandering of
International Monetary Fund aid -- fade for the moment." He warns in
conclusion: "These three phenomena -- widespread terror, the war in the
Caucasus and alleged corruption in the Kremlin -- could provoke a countrywide
crisis of huge proportions. The more the Russian people realize that the
regime that is supposed to govern them is in fact unable to do so, the more
the chances of them reacting in an unpredictable manner will grow."