
| ISSUE #21 | October 30, 1998 |
#1
Moscow Times
October 29, 1998
EDITORIAL: Crisis Is No Time for Arms Race
A recent costly setback in Russia's program to develop a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles has underlined the stupidity of the State Duma's refusal to ratify the START II arms treaty. The failure of last week's Topol-M ICBM launch shows just how much money it costs to maintain nuclear parity. Russia is now in a financial crisis and spending money on nuclear weapons is the last thing it needs to do. Yet, the Duma, the lower house of parliament, is refusing to sign the START II which would allow for bilateral cuts by both Russia and the United States in weapons arsenals. The point is that Russia cannot afford to keep its nuclear forces at their current levels whereas the United States can. If the Duma could ever rouse itself to ratify the treaty, then the United States would cut its arsenals and the burden for Russia of maintaining parity would be that much lighter. The United States will even cough up some money to help Russia make the cuts it is already going to make as a result of attrition. And it's not like Russia couldn't use the help. Its nuclear modernization program is going poorly. Already Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov is worrying aloud about paying for just the 35 or 40 new rockets lined up for this year, which are needed to meet even the basic levels set under START II. And there is more on the table. After START II, the two powers have already sketched out a START III treaty which would make even bigger cuts and more savings for Russia. All of this while maintaining a managed equivalence of force. The Duma knows all this. The Russian defense establishment which understands just how far it is falling behind in the nuclear race is solidly behind START II. Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev has lobbied the treaty in the Duma. The Duma's arguments against START II are bizarre: It can't back the treaty because it thinks the United States is cheating on the 1972 ABM treaty; it can't back START II while the United States is putting sanctions on companies that do business with Iran; it can't back START II while NATO is threatening Kosovo. Nonsense. This is all a smoke screen. The Duma bears an irrational hostility toward the West and will do anything that will make life harder for President Boris Yeltsin. So it turns out that the politicians who call themselves Russian patriots are furthering their own careers by undermining the national interest and putting Russia behind in the nuclear race.
#2
Moscow Times
October 29, 1998
DEFENSE DOSSIER: A Volatile Nuclear Doctrine
By Pavel Felgenhauer
The Russian army may be losing its fighting edge because of inadequate financing, but its military leaders are still busy working out a new defense doctrine. The gist of the new doctrine has already been made public, and it proclaims nuclear deterrence as an answer to any potential threat. Since last year, when the former chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces Igor Sergeyev was appointed Russia's defense minister, nuclear deterrence has become the backbone of the country's defenses. The generals of Russia's rocket forces have been saying that the conventional forces are weak and will continue to become weaker in the foreseeable future. Military reform will not improve the situation soon. So they will have to live for many years under a nuclear umbrella. This month, Sergeyev officially outlined this strategy during visits to Greece and China. Last week in Beijing, while speaking in the Chinese national defense academy, Sergeyev declared that "in the event of a direct threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia, as a result of an act of aggression, Moscow will consider it possible and lawful to use all available means of defense, including nuclear weapons." In 1981, General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev declared that the Soviet Union will never be the first to use nuclear weapons in times of war. In the late 1980s President Mikhail Gorbachev reiterated this "no first use" principle. Of course, everyone understood that a war in Europe would inevitably evolve into a nuclear conflict, since the United States and other Western countries never adopted the "no first use" option. However, sources in the Defense Ministry say that Soviet military staffs did prepare plans and develope capabilities to fight major wars without nuclear weapons. Today all such plans are officially abandoned, while the conventional capabilities to fight without nukes have crumbled away since the demise of the Soviet Union. In 1993, President Boris Yeltsin approved a provisional defense doctrine that stated Russia could use nuclear weapons first if attacked by the conventional forces of another nuclear power or a country that is in alliance with nuclear powers. Russia also said it could retaliate with nuclear weapons if nuclear power stations or other "vitally important installations" are attacked by conventional means. Under the new doctrine Sergeyev is actively promoting, any threat to Russia's sovereignty and territorial integrity can qualify for nuclear response. The possible field of use of nuclear weapons has become extremely wide. The breakaway republic of Chechnya or any other potential secessionist member of the Russian Federation, Japan, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Norway and other neighboring countries that have unresolved territorial disputes with Russia are now potential targets. Such fullscale reliance on nuclear weapons is a highly dangerous development. It means the threshold for future nuclear hostilities has come down to the lowest possible level. With Russia's economy and financial system in tatters, the Russian ruling elite and the general public are increasingly paranoid. NATO, the West, the evil International Monetary Fund are ganging up against us. After a period of attempted change, of trying to make friends with the outside world, traditional Russian xenophobia is coming back with a vengeance, nuclear armed. It was hardly a coincidence that Sergeyev spoke of nuclear retribution in Beijing. Of all neighboring countries China is the only one that can possibly stage a "large-scale" conventional attack on Russian territory. For many decades Russian generals have feared a massive Chinese invasion in coordination with a high-tech air-land offensive by the West in Europe. Today NATO is expanding to the East, but is still relatively far off, while the Russian Far East and Siberia seem to be dangerously exposed, with defenses crumbling and only nuclear missiles ready to hit back at an invader. Today, of course, China, NATO and the United States are officially Russia's "strategic partners." However, the Russian military never really believed these "partnerships" are anything but a bluff. First Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov said last week that Russia should not hope for foreign aid, but act instead like Kuzma Minin and Prince Dmitry Pozharsky, who in the early 17th century raised a militia in Nizhny Novgorod that successfully evicted Polish forces from the Kremlin, burning down Moscow in the process, but saving the fatherland from Western influences. Pavel Felgenhauer is the defense and national security affairs editor of Segodnya.
#3
Primakov: Russia Building Socially-Oriented Market Economy
Vienna, October 27 (Itar-Tass) -- The Russia-EU summit was "mutually useful," Prime Minister Yevgeniy Primakov said at a news conference on Tuesday [27 October]. "I answered questions about the activity of the Russian government and the program to be adopted on Saturday. The Russian government is doing its best to build a socially-oriented market economy. We do not plan to follow the 'monetarism without the population' principle," the premier said. Russia "attaches a great importance" to relations with the EU and views the organization as "a dynamically developing structure, which is becoming a center of the world economy." In the opinion of Primakov, that system will obtain political functions in future. "Both sides demonstrated a practical approach," he said. "We in Russia will do everything so that investments received under programs of the European Union bring benefits both to us and the EU. We will do everything to stabilize the economic, political and social situation in Russia," Primakov noted. Russia develops relations both with the EU as an organization and its member-countries. Austrian and Russian businessmen plan to sign several agreements on Tuesday, which will bring 600 million dollars worth of investments in the real economic sector. In the words of Austrian Federal Chancellor Viktor Klima, the sides discussed the Russian government's measures to build confidence in the Russian market and the Russian currency and provide for guarantees for foreign investments. The amount of EU investments in Russia will much depend on the success of the Russian negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Russian Minister of Economics Andrey Shapovalyants told correspondents the EU was primarily interested in a legal regime of the work of foreign investors during the office of the Russian new government.
#4 Toronto Star September 27, 1998 This is no time for the West to abandon Russia By Richard Gwyn (gwyn@inforamp.net)
IN MOSCOW these days, uniformed soldiers beg at street corners to try to pick up some of the rubles, and even kopeks, that their government can no longer afford to pay them. In several states, like Altai, teachers are "paid" with bottles of vodka that they then resell to black-marketeers. One of the reasons why the Russian government can no longer afford to pay its own workers is because we, in the West, have lent it money. If that sounds perverse, it is. With these outside loans have come outside advice and outside rules. Balance your budget, or at least shrink its deficit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told the Russian government. Since that government was already spending so little, and had no hope of increasing its tax revenues, the only option left for reducing its spending still further was to stop sending out paycheques to the millions of state workers and soldiers and pensioners. The West, in the form of the IMF, has simply magnified the misery of the Russian people and caused them to hate the government that did this to them - the government of President Boris Yeltsin. Even more remarkably, almost unbelievably, the western advocates of liberalism and of the free market have succeeded in making the Russian Communist party look rather kindly and a bit respectable. In some kind of madcap inversion of history, that Communist party, which dominates the Duma, or parliament, has become the principal defender of ordinary Russians and the principal opponent of the corrupt industrialists and bureaucrats who have done so well by stealing the western money sent there and by then hustling large parts of it right out again to the West in their personal, numbered accounts in tax havens like Lichtenstein and Cyprus. The role of the West in the contemporary collapse of the Russian economy shouldn't be forgotten, particularly now that so many western experts and commentators are saying that because so much money has been squandered in Russia, no more should be sent. That money has been squandered all right. Any more sent to Moscow would certainly vanish similarly. But western whining is misplaced. The chance, eight years ago, for a ``grand bargain,'' or of a Russian commitment to democracy and the free market in exchange for a new type of Marshall Plan, was missed, for lack of imagination and nerve. Instead, the actual amounts sent there - some $2 billion a year in outright aid - were always trivial. This was just enough to be worth stealing, but not enough either for a serious commitment to reform or for the West to be able to demand that kind of commitment. Now all the pretence is over. The Russians are trying to do things their own way. The new, centrist, prime minister, Yevgeny Primakov, whom the Communists forced Yeltsin to appoint, is a canny old survivor and a former member of the Politburo who has served every Russian and Soviet leader back to Khrushchev. In place of the kind of market-type reform that's been attempted by Yeltsin - intermittently - these past eight years, Primakov and his new ministers are talking about ``the real economy,'' meaning the economy of ordinary people, and about re-instituting exchange controls and re-nationalizing the private industries that were sold at fire-sale prices to the business barons. It may well be that Primakov will turn out to be only a transitional figure, preparing the way for some authoritarian leader such as Afghan hero Alexander Lebed. Whatever happens, it will, this time, be the Russians themselves who will make all the decisions. This doesn't mean, though, that the West should stand back, arms folded, and watch the Russians struggle all on their own, as many commentators are now urging. Being seen by the Russians to be allowing them to twist in the wind would turn today's anger at the West into outright hatred. Loans to small businesses, educational programs, exchange programs, technical assistance, could all help individual Russians. In a number of instances, outright humanitarian aid will be needed, especially this winter following poor wheat and potato harvests. The illusions are over, both those in the West about Russia's ability to make a quick transition to democracy and to the free market, and those among Russians about the West's good intentions. But if we shatter the connection itself, then we'll be repeating the pariah policy that, the last time we adopted it, was applied to post-Imperial Germany right after World War I and with disastrous results. The difference, over the decades, is that Russia has nuclear weapons.
#5 Date: Wed, 28 Oct 1998 From: Anatol LievenSubject: History is Not Bunk
Excerpt For personal use only Published in Prospect (London), October 1998 edition.<>
History is Not Bunk
The West's defence of Russian crime in the name of the free market.
by Anatol Lieven
Anatol Lieven's latest book, "Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power", on
which this article is based, was published by Yale University Press in
April. It analyses the collapse of the Russian state under Boris Yeltsin as
an example of some fundamental flaws in both capitalist history and western
analysis.
"I always read the Financial Times, because capitalists cannot afford to
lie", a Chinese communist diplomat once remarked. If the ambassador later
had the mischance to invest in Russian bonds, he may be feeling a bit less
complimentary today. It is not that Western reporters or commentators have
consciously lied about Russia's liberal capitalist revolution. It is not
even that they have believed Russian lies, though many have. The most
striking, and depressing aspect of much optimistic Western analysis over
the past seven years is rather that many of the commentators have seen and
reported the evil of what was happening and yet have been prepared to find
justifications for it in terms of their general free market ideology.
In some cases, their narrow dogmatism and moral ruthlessness have brought
them uncomfortably close to the spirit of the Communism which they hate.
Above all, the American press in general, and the Economist and Wall Street
Journal in particular (with occasional lapses by the Financial Times) have
suffered from an underlying teleology which has coloured everything that
they have written: either the development of a successful western-style
free market economy or "reversion to Communism". This simplistic view has
led them to ignore the reality not just of the greater part of the world
today, but of the pattern of liberal capitalismÕs frequent failures over
the past 200 years, a history into which contemporary Russia fits all too
well......
Broken Signposts on the Capitalist Path
The key faults of doctrinaire free market reporting and analysis of Russia
have been the following, and they resemble the old faults of
Marxist-Leninist analysis very closely indeed:
* An aridly monolinear view of the development of human societies,
excluding the great majority of possibilities;
* an attitude to history which combines indifference, simplification and
demonisation;
* a tendency to speak in slogans and cliches ("Russia's Bold Young
Reformers");
* a concentration on decisions, programmes and laws at the expense of
political context and the realities of political power;
* a romanticisation and adulation of particular ideologically sympathetic
leaders (one leading Western economist and former adviser to the Russian
government said to me, in tones of deep emotion, ÒI simply cannot believe
that Anatoly Chubais could take a bribeÓ - a rare case of a Scandinavian
protestant agnostic believing in a form of Immaculate Conception).
* a willingness to take the success of particular economic showcases (like
Moscow with its international hotels and western businesses) as
representative of the economy as a whole.
* a profound contempt for ordinary people lacking in the characteristics
(or in the capitalist case, ÒskillsÓ) required by the new order, and linked
to this,
* a complete indifference to individual psychology or human needs and
behaviour outside the confines of the ideological paradigm....
Conclusion
So wide has been the gap over Russia between reality and some western
reporting that on occasions it has suggested not so much smug arrogance as
a deep if unconscious anxiety. The reason for this is that it is not enough
for these people to say that free market democracy is the best system
available. No, it has to be the only system, universally and eternally
valid. Just like the Communists in their heyday, too many Western analysts
have in fact come half-consciously to believe that their system represents
"the end of history", in Fukuyama's misused phrase. And Russia challenges
this Faith.
At heart they seriously believe that the universal application of a set of
relatively simple economic and political formulas will in effect suspend
historical time; that humanity will achieve a permanent Òvirtuous circleÓ,
a gently revolving nirvana of stability and prosperity, with only the
occasional mild financial crisis to save us all from terminal boredom and
give the financial journalists something to do; and that in the end a giant
hamburger, walkman clamped to its ears, will sail out into eternity, beyond
the stars.
Anyone who doubts that some such notion is really lurking in a good many
heads only needs to re-read some of the analysis published in the recent
past about the USA having established a "new economic paradigm". A few
years of rising share prices and low unemployment in one country with five
per cent of the world's population and half the financial analysts in the
western world started believing that the Messiah has descended from heaven
carrying the Philosopher's Stone.
From this point of view, the failure of the liberal capitalist revolution
in Russia would not only deprive the doctrinaire free marketeers of the
greatest trophy on their wall - the head of their former greatest enemy -
it would raise questions about the future of liberal capitalism in general.
If it turns out that this is in fact unlikely to work well across most of
the globe, and that in many countries it creates a new problem for every
old one it solves, then this has grave implications not only for belief in
liberal capitalism as a universal model, but for the future of the
developed capitalist democracies as well. How long can we insulate our
economies and societies from a world in which most economies and societies
resemble that of Russia much more closely than they do those of the West?
And even if we do recognise in time the threat from the failure of
capitalism and democracy along our borders, may the effort to deal with the
resulting dangers not bring our own era of unprecedented personal comfort
and freedom to an end?
#6 PBS NewsHour COLLAPSING ECONOMY October 27, 1998 Special Correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports from Southern Siberia on how ordinary Russians are dealing with an unstable economy.
ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Now, how ordinary Russians are coping in a collapsing economy. Special Correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports from Southern Siberia. JENNIFER GRIFFIN, Gorno-Altaisk, Russia: Yelena Efimova, like most Russians, hasn't received her salary since April. She teaches Russian in the Siberian town of Gorno-Altaisk. Now inside classrooms like Efimova's, an experiment born out of economic desperation is taking place. The local government has started paying its wage arrears through barter. It now lets teachers go to local stores choose the products they need and deduct them from their salaries. Store owners keep track of what the teachers buy, checking their names off lists given by the school. Under the new system little money ever changes hands, but the teachers get what they need - flower, pasta, and, of course, vodka. In the state-owned dormitories where the teachers live, Alexei Zorkin pulls from his cupboard the goods he bartered for this month. Many teachers traded their salaries for vodka, which Zorkin says has long been an alternative currency. ALEXEI ZORKIN, Teacher: (speaking through interpreter) During the Soviet Union vodka was highly valued. When someone came to fix your electricity, you offered to pay them in vodka, which seemed more decent than offering money. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: Now, everyone gets something out of the barter system. Stores that owe taxes can deduct the value of the goods chosen by the teachers from what the shops owe the government. Rather than wait for the tax police to confiscate their goods, the shopkeepers happily comply. In a land where bills are still figured on an abacus, it's not that strange to return to such an old way of doing business. Efimova and her colleagues say it isn't a perfect solution; it is a desperate measure. YELENA EFIMOVA: (speaking through interpreter) We didn't have money before, and we don't have money now. The prices have grown, but what do we care whether something is thirty or forty-five rubles? We don't have either. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: So Efimova is preparing for what is always a long winter in Siberia, storing food she grows in her garden and pickling anything fresh so that she and her daughter have something to eat. In kitchens across Russia, a similar ritual is taking place, because people don't know how long food supplies will last. Nearly half of all consumer goods Russians buy are imported. With hard currency reserves dwindling, those imports are slowly disappearing. In remote parts of Russia, like here in the Republic of Altai near Russia's Mongolian border, it's not necessary to rely on imports. People from here have always lived off the land. Rich in natural resources like lumber, the republic has stopped depending on Moscow to subsidize its local industries. Now, it trades its lumber for coal and other necessities from neighboring republics. What strikes people most about the Russians is their patience, especially under difficult circumstances. In this Siberian town most of the winter it is 30 degrees below zero. When asked how they deal with such brutal winters, the people of Altai said, "You get used to it." But the government is worried not everyone will remain patient. One man grew so desperate about not being paid that he fell to his death as he tried to hang himself from the Lenin statue in downtown Gorno-Altaisk. Local officials say more suicides or violence could result if the national government in Moscow doesn't find a quick solution to the economic crisis, which grew dramatically worse in August, when the government defaulted on its debt. YURI ANTARADONOV, Governor, Altai Republic Russia: (speaking through interpreter) Barter will continue, but it can't go on forever. A person needs more than just food to exist. He should also educate his children, be well dressed, and pursue a cultural life. In "Das Kapital" Karl Marx wrote that barter worked under feudalism until the peasant exchanged their wheat for axes. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: Among those ready to trade their wheat, their axes are these mothers, who are demanding child support from the government. They are unemployed and have nothing to barter. NADEZHDA SURKASHEVA, Unemployed Teacher: (speaking through interpreter) We are not getting any help from the federal government. Our people are on the verge of extinction we have nothing to feed our children. They can't go to school because they don't have clothes or boots to wear. There is a high suicide rate among our youth. Kids don't just want to live. In the villages it's even worse. That is why we are here protesting. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: But many don't have the energy to protest and, instead, show up at work each day, hoping that someday the crisis will ease. At the town's children's hospital workers haven't seen wages in five months, and now that winter has arrived, there is no heat. LUDMILA PONOMAREVA, Nurse: (speaking through interpreter) We have no drugs or medicine and no bandages. Our clinic is technically closed. We only take kids in critical condition. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: Even the children who are admitted are crowded into wards like this, waiting to get well. Their mothers share their beds and bring them food from home because the hospital can't afford to feed them. There are no quick remedies to these children's ailments, nor for the Russian economy. And so all across Russia people are doing what they always have done to scrape buy. Thousands of miles from Siberia in this potato field near the town of Korolyov outside Moscow, potatoes are like gold and people fight over what they find. Soldiers who haven't been paid either search the government's collective fields looking for potatoes in exchange for their wages. When they finish, they let pensioners like Galina Varvarcheva scrounge for leftovers. GALINA VARVARCHEVA: (speaking through interpreter) This is a sick one. This one is sick too. But this year we'll even eat the sick ones. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: Mikhail Maxov says he and his mother found enough potatoes to survive the winter. MIKHAIL MAXOV, Security Guard: (speaking through interpreter) I have a small salary, so my only hope was in these potatoes. I don't know what will happen further down the line with my work. They could fire me, so I have to put my faith in the harvest this year. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: Elsewhere, in towns like Yaroslavl, about 150 miles East of Moscow, the situation is even more desperate. People line up each day to sell their blood to the government. They are paid $3 a pint. Most donors say they wish they could come more often, but the blood bank officials limit them to once a month. DR. ANATOLY VERONIN, Director, Yaroslavl Blood Bank: (speaking through interpreter) So many people are showing up here and not only in Yaroslavl but across Russia I am hearing connected, of course, with the financial crisis, unpaid wages, unpaid pensions, a general delay in all payments. Due to this, people are desperate for any way to make money. Here they can make a bit of money that will at least get through another week. JENNIFER GRIFFIN: But in Siberia, unlike Yaroslavl, things aren't that bad. People like Yelena Efimova still have food in their gardens, and Alexei Zorkin is rationing his bartered salary to make it through the winter - a winter in which many fear the worst. At least for some of the people living in towns like Gorno-Altaisk, they have something to barter and to eat.
#7 Russia: Foreign Minister Rules Out Membership In NATO And EU By Jan de Weydenthal
Prague, 29 October 1998 (RFE/RL) -- Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has ruled out any prospects that his country will be joining NATO or the European Union. Interviewed by the Moscow daily Izvestiya (Oct. 28), Ivanov said that if Russia were to join, those two Western organizations "would cease to be what they are." Russia is "too big," Ivanov said, adding that "the Russian scale of things is too expansive." Russia's relations with NATO are conducted on the basis of the so-called Founding Act, signed last year (May, 1997) in Paris, that created the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council. The council meets periodically to discuss current issues, such as Kosovo, proliferation of weapons, and terrorism. Ivanov appeared reluctant to assess the importance of the Founding Act. "The process of giving it practical content is going only slowly," he said. But he also admitted that Russia's "limited financial potential" may be a factor in determining the scope of the relationship. Russia simply cannot afford to participate fully in various aspects of the Alliance's activities. Ivanov was quick to assert, however, that Russia continues to regard the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) rather than NATO as providing the focus for its security policies. "NATO provides collective security for only a group of states -- 16 today, 19 tomorrow," he said, referring to the upcoming inclusion of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. He then went on to reiterate the long-standing Russian theme, initially formulated in the Soviet era, that "NATO is still a military machine aimed in a very specific direction." He did not name that direction, but seemed to be suggesting it was against Russia. Ivanov admitted that NATO's attitude toward Moscow might have changed "in spirit" during recent years, but he also insisted that "the spirit is one thing and documents are another." The NATO charter defined the Alliance as a basically defensive voluntary organization of democratic states. There is no mention of Russia or any other states in the charter. Would Russia continue to oppose further eastward expansion of NATO, particularly its admitting the Baltic states? Ivanov was cautious, saying, "When Russia says that there is some kind of red line, it should not be thought that tomorrow it will be putting an ultimatum to somebody." But he also said that if "a threat to national security" emerges, the new situation would have to be assessed "through a different prism." In general, Ivanov insisted on continuity in Russia's foreign policy. "I don't think any radical changes are foreseen," he said, adding that "the strategic goals that Russia is pursuing on the eve of the 21st century are not short-term but long-term." Ivanov described Russia's main task as that of playing an active role "in the creation of a democratic multipolar world order." This, he emphasized, "required that there be no dictate by any one state or group of states" and that "mechanisms be developed for collaboration and a collective response" to international events. The very concept of multipolarity, which has commonly been taken as a thinly disguised criticism of the United States' global influence, was put at the heart of Moscow's strategy in international activities with the arrival of Yevgeny Primakov in Russia's Foreign Ministry in late 1995. Primakov's strategy is certain to be continued by Igor Ivanov.
#8 BBC October 29, 1998 Yeltsin on Net support machine President's vital signs are looking good on the Web By Internet Correspondent Chris Nuttall
President Yeltsin may be recovering from extreme exhaustion at a sanatorium near Moscow, but a virtual version of the Russian leader is currently in rude health on a special hospital Website. In a craze similar to the Tamagotchi toys, Russians and visitors from abroad are coming to the site in their thousands to prescribe health care for the president. Messages suggesting medicine and light exercise lead to an improvement in the president's vital signs, displayed on dynamic graphs constantly being updated showing blood pressure, pulse rate and temperature. The twist is that opponents of the president can prescribe treatment to make his condition worse. Rival suggestions include morphine, viagra, electric shock therapy, vodka, vodka and more vodka. More imaginative suggestions are a course of laughing gas, a chat with President Clinton, a night with Monica Lewinsky or an injection of $20 billion in aid from the International Monetary Fund. If Mr Yeltsin dissolves the Russian parliament, his health improves. Struggling to get the Duma to accept a new prime minister can put him back in intensive care. The site lists messages from visitors ranging from get well soon to wishing him dead. It is based in Saint Petersburg but visitors come from all over Russia and abroad. E-mails have arrived from as far afield as Latvia, Japan and Italy. http://hol.da.ru
#9 IntellectualCapital.com http://www.intellectualcapital.com Russia's Presidency in the Balance by Richard Pipes October 29, 1998
By now Boris Yeltsin must be the only person who still believes he is capable of carrying out the duties of president of the Russian Federation. The problem is more than Yeltsin's physical condition: his constant bouts with bronchitis and high blood pressure and whatever else that ails him and his physicians conceal. The main trouble is his mental condition. His mind seems to have deteriorated recently to the point where he resembles Leonid Brezhnev in the last year of his rule. On a recent trip to Sweden he thought he was in Finland. Similarly, while visiting Central Asia he was not always clear he was not in Moscow. Reading a speech in Kazakhstan he proceeded from the beginning to the end and then read the middle part. The cancellation of Yeltsin's projected trips to Vienna and Malaysia merely underscores his incompetence. His popularity several weeks ago plunged to 2%; today it is probably a fraction of that. The new favorite This is understood in Russia where the race for the presidency is entering into high gear. Russia has no vice president to take over when the chief executive dies or can no longer carry out his responsibilities. The Constitution provides for the prime minister in such an eventuality to assume caretaker functions and to arrange within 90 days for new presidential elections. This may happen any day now. Political careers in contemporary Russian resemble meteors rather than fixed stars: They cross the firmament with startling rapidity because the absence of political structures make the constituencies extremely fluid. In my previous columns in IC I called attention to Victor Chernomyrdin, Boris Nemtsov and Alexander Lebed as leading contenders for the presidency. The first two have faded. The most prominent candidate for the presidency today is the popular mayor of Moscow, Iury Luzhkov. Luzhkov is something of a novelty in Russia, a pragmatic politician who avoids ideology and programs, following the classical dictum of Tip O'Neill that "all politics is local." He has managed to build a powerful political base in the capital city by attracting business and spending lavishly to beautify it. His apparent aim is to create a government of national unity. To this end, he has secured the support of the Communists, who control nearly one-third of the electorate: a powerful bloc but not enough to propel their candidate into the presidency. But he is also trying to win over Grigori Yavlinsky, the leading liberal reformer. An all-party government would not be a bad thing for Russia whose efforts to stabilize the economy have been hampered by party bickering. However, certain aspects of Luzhkov's politics are troubling. He is an ardent nationalist who insists that the Ukraine "return" the Crimean peninsula to Russia. Recently, in an overt appeal to those who feel nostalgia for the past he has organized "Pioneers" on the model of the Communist youth organization of the same name. The impression his pronouncements and actions give is that he is seeking to combine nostalgia for the Communist past widespread among the older generation with forward policy responsive to the mood of the young. It is a potent combination. A lot at stake Of the other potential candidates, Lebed cannot be counted out for with his image of a "strong man"; he attracts many Russians prepared to surrender their democratic rights to a leader who promises to solve their problems. But serving as governor in distant Siberia he seems at present to be outside the mainstream. The Communist leader, Gennady Zyuganov, has apparently decided that he cannot possibly win because his constituency, though large, cannot rise above 30%; hence, he is backing Luzhkov. As for Yavlinsky, the polls do not indicate that he enjoys the kind of support that he needs to become a serious contender. The current prime minister, Evgenii Primakov, has repeatedly denied any presidential ambitions. The Russian Constitution vests great powers in the president, and an ambitious politician can translate these powers into nearly dictatorial authority. We can be reasonably certain that whoever wins the contest will exercise his prerogative in a much more authoritarian fashion than his counterparts in Western democracies. How responsibly he will do so remains to be seen. Richard Pipes is a professor of history and has previously served as director of Russian studies at Harvard University. He is a contributing editor of IntellectualCapital.com.
#10 Baltimore Sun October 29, 1998 Editorial A nuclear power on autopilot Yeltsin illness: As president's absences become frequent, Russia tackles money woes without a plan.
THE PATTERN established under Soviet rule continues: Russia is once again on autopilot, led by a doddering president. Surrogates insist everything is normal and, indeed, day-to-day governing continues. But President Boris Yeltsin has become a figurehead as his faltering health has forced frequent absences from public life. Could this continue until the summer of 2000, when Mr. Yeltsin's term ends? Judging from the marked deterioration of Mr. Yeltsin's condition, the answer to that question is a source of concern. The brief glimpses of edited videotape show a man who is frail, out of touch and hardly capable of leading a nuclear power. So far, the Kremlin has refused to disclose what ails the president. This is in keeping with an age-old Russian tradition maintaining that the ruler's health is not a public concern. The Kremlin speaks only of "unstable blood pressure and undue fatigue" as a result of an "asthenic condition," or overall weakness. In the last decade of Soviet rule, Kremlin staffers became experts in covering up for aged, ailing leaders from Leonid I. Brezhnev to Konstantin U. Chernenko. Though some of the mystery surrounding the Russian ruler is gone, secrecy shrouds many decisions, making it easier for the staff to insist everything is in order. Mr. Yeltsin's visible exhaustion has renewed speculation about his successor. Two leading contenders are Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and retired Gen. Alexander Lebed. Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov also must be considered. He would take over the president's office temporarily should Mr. Yeltsin become incapable of handling his duties. During the summer's governmental crisis, Mr. Primakov, a diplomat and spymaster, emerged as a compromise candidate for prime minister. He says he is not interested in becoming president, and his first six weeks as prime minister have been lackluster. All bets, however, would be off if something were to happen to Mr. Yeltsin.
#11 Jamestown Foundation Monitor October 29, 1998
FOREIGN RELATIONS SUFFER FROM YELTSIN'S INFIRMITIES. The recent eleventh-hour decision to send Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov to Vienna in place of Russian President Boris Yeltsin has cast a spotlight on the adverse impact that the Russian leader's poor health is having on the country's diplomatic efforts. Yeltsin had been scheduled to consult with European Union leaders on a host of key economic and security issues. His infirmities seem likely to complicate other high-level diplomatic exchanges scheduled to take place between Russia and a host of other countries in the coming weeks. The Kremlin has already decided, for example, that Primakov will stand in for Yeltsin during an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum scheduled to start in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on November 17. Further, both Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien have announced that they will postpone plans to visit Moscow. Tudjman was to arrive in the Russian capital on November 2; Chretien's visit was scheduled for January of next year (Russian agencies, October 28). A Canadian trade mission to Russia which was to have been led by Chretien has also canceled its plans to visit, though the reason it cited was Russia's economic difficulties. What is less clear is whether Yeltsin's poor health will also cause the postponement or cancellation of two other major diplomatic events scheduled for Moscow next month: summit talks between Yeltsin and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi on November 10-13 and between Yeltsin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin sometime later in the month. Kremlin sources yesterday denied press reports that the Yeltsin-Obuchi meeting is likely to be canceled. That denial came a day after presidential spokesman Dmitri Yakushkin referred specifically to the Japanese-Russian and Chinese-Russian talks in telling reporters that no changes are planned in Boris Yeltsin's schedule of meetings with heads of foreign states (Russian agencies, October 27-28). On October 27, moreover, a top Japanese government official said that Tokyo had been informed by the Kremlin that there are no plans to reschedule Obuchi's talks in Moscow (Kyodo, October 27). The same appeared to be true with regard to Jiang Zemin's planned visit. During a recently concluded trip to Beijing by Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, the Chinese leader said he was looking forward to his upcoming talks with Yeltsin.
#12 Date: Thu, 29 Oct 1998 From: Human Rights Watch MoscowSubject: NIKITIN UPDATE - TRIAL ENDS
Dear All, The trial is over, at least for now. We will continue to monitor the Nikitin case closely and will inform you of any new developments. Thanks to all of you who have followed the case and written about it. Diederik For further information, please call: In Moscow: Diederik Lohman; mobile phone from Moscow: 8 2 903 3567 from St. Petersburg: 8 096 903 3567 from abroad: 7 096 903 3567 or at: (095) 265 4448 In New York: Rachel Denber (212) 216 1266 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH UPDATE ON THE NIKITIN TRIAL October 29, 1998 JUDGE SENDS CASE BACK TO SECURITY SERVICE FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION Judge Sergei Golets today ruled to send the criminal case against Alexander Nikitin back to the Federal Security Service (FSB) for further investigation. His decision severely criticized the way the FSB has conducted its three-year long investigation. Nikitin remains under city arrest. Nikitin was facing a twenty-year prison term on charges of espionage and divulging state secrets, which stem from his work for the Norwegian Bellona Foundation on a report exposing nuclear contamination caused by Russia's Northern Fleet. The trial started on October 20 at the St. Petersburg City Court after the FSB had investigated the case for almost three years. Nikitin has always contested his innocence, claiming that all information used in the report had been taken from open sources. The judge's ruling reflected the very critiques of the FSB's indictment advanced by Nikitin's defense team. It called the indictment too vague, and instructed the FSB to specify exactly what information in the Bellona report was secret. It further described the expert assessments as not based on law. The FSB has at least a month to implement the judge's instructions. "It is unacceptable and baffling that after three years of unscrupulous investigation, the FSB should get yet another chance to press these outrageous charges against Alexander Nikitin," declared Holly Cartner, executive director of the Europe and Cental Asia Division of Human Rights Watch. "This judgment shows once again that in Russia the interests of the state continue to prevail over the rights of citizens," said Ms. Cartner. According to Nikitin's lawyers, current criminal procedure law, which dates to the 1960s, essentially prohibits Judge Golets from acquitting Nikitin on grounds of an unclear indictment. In Western countries, the prosecution's failure to issue a sufficiently specific indictment may serve as a reason for acquittal. However, under Russian law formal mistakes and procedural violations by the prosecutor cannot serve as grounds for denying the prosecution to proceed with the case. This frequently results in criminal cases being sent back and forth between the courts and the prosecutor's office for years, while defendants are often kept in pretrial detention. On two occasions in the past three years, the Procuracy General in Moscow ordered the FSB to conduct the investigation against Nikitin in accordance with the law. Both times, however, the FSB ignored the order, and there is no guarantee that the FSB will follow Judge Golets' instructions now. The judge will be forced to send the case back for further investigation again if it goes to court again without the FSB having implemented the judge's instructions, resulting in a vicious circle. -- Diederik Lohman, Director Alexander Petrov, Deputy Director Moscow Office Europe and Central Asia Division Human Rights Watch Russian Federation Moscow 103064 A/Ya 409 7 095 265 4448 (tel/fax) hwmosc@glasnet.ru Website English: http://www.hrw.org Russian: http://www.hrw.org/russianBack to the top