
| ISSUE #73 | November 5, 1999 |
#1 Moscow Times November 4, 1999 SEASON OF DISCONTENT: Are Russians Ready to Win Chechen War? By Andrei Piontkovsky Do you approve of the decisive actions of the government in the fight against international terrorism and the protection of the integrity of the Russian Federation? Yes or no?" The question sounds like a gunshot, and Joe Public - scared and well drilled by six television stations at once - stands at attention and shouts out "Yes Mr. Lieutenant Colonel." First, Joe Public knows that these "blacks" that he is not overly fond of blew up a building in Moscow and you have to massacre them all. In the second place, two or three fattened-up, star-studded generals in camouflage and striped undershirts appear on television every night and repeat the same well-rehearsed, Putin-PR-approved text: This time, we are going all the way to the end, to total victory and we won't let those traitors in Moscow stop us. Nobody wants to look like an accomplice to traitors, and therefore no one dares ask the clarifying question: Where are these generals' roots, and what is their definition of victory? Let's try to fill the yawning gap in the Russian Federation's newest military concept. Contemporary wars, like local conflicts such as Afghanistan, Yugoslavia and Chechnya, differ from classical wars like World War II by their sharply rising ratio of civilian to military losses. This ratio in the last Chechen war - civilian to military deaths - was 10-to-1. Thousands of soldiers died, but tens of thousands of civilians were killed. It will be the same this time. It's just the statistical norm that prevails when a regular army collides with partisan resistance. It was therefore senseless to put forth a dozen contradictory versions of what happened at that Grozny market. For every dead Chechen militant, we will kill 10 civilians. Each one of them has relatives and they will stand up in the place of the dead soldier. Sergei Stepashin understood this long ago. Recently, on NTV's "Itogi," he said what everyone has been afraid to say aloud: "In order to win this war, you have to destroy the entire male population of Chechnya." In his time, Stepashin looked pretty spiffy in camouflage and stripes, marching the roads of the Chechen war toward victory. However, understanding sooner than others what such a victory consists of, he was horrified and recoiled. It was no accident that he was replaced. We left Chechnya the last time because society was not ready for such a victory. Shamil Basayev's raids into Dagestan and the blasts in Moscow have boiled societyto the necessary heat. The Communists burned down the Reichstag and they should have been destroyed. Enemies of the people killed comrade Sergei Kirov and they should have been destroyed. Chechens blew up buildings in Moscow and Volgodonsk and they must be destroyed. But then the question we began with - for whom the bell of the new Chechen war tolls - has to be asked in a few different forms. Do you approve of the government's decisive actions toward the physical elimination of one of Russia's ethnic groups? Do you approve of the government's decisive actions toward turning Russia into Satan No. 1 in the eyes of the entire Islamic world? Where are you dashing off to, you winged troika with Putin in the coachman's seat, and will other peoples and other states yield the road to you? There is no answer to be heard.
#4 Moscow Times November 5, 1999 Generals Tell Politicians: Hands Off By Simon Saradzhyan Staff Writer General Vladimir Shamanov is one of the leading Russian commanders waging war in Chechnya - and to hear him tell it, elected officials best not hinder the army this time around. Shamanov, commander of the western group of forces in Chechnya, was quoted in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on Thursday as saying if "politicians" intercede in the fighting and "prevent" the military from achieving victory, then infuriated officers will leave the army en masse. "Some even believe the country will be driven to the brink of civil war" if that happens, he was quoted as saying. In any case, he said, "There will be a powerful exodus of officers of various ranks, including generals, from the armed forces, because the officers corps may not survive another slap in the face." Similar rhetoric came from Shamanov's boss, the commander of the North Caucasus military district. General Viktor Kazantsev has also recently warned that Russia's officers and generals will view any attempt by Moscow to stop the war as "betrayal." Ever since Russian troops made their June dash to Yugoslavia's Pristina airport, Russia watchers have been asking how much of what the military does is freelancing by top generals, and how much is policy dictated by the government or the president. Those questions have grown louder since Russian forces rolled into Chechnya about five weeks ago. The military has been proclaiming it intends to finish a job left undone during the first 1994-1996 Chechen war - the pacification of the republic. It has taken over duties usually associated with other arms of government, like the Interior Ministry or the Emergency Situations Ministry. And it has ignored with impunity the anger of influential regional leaders like Ruslan Aushev, president of neighboring Ingushetia. It is not clear exactly who is in charge of who. But at minimum, Russia's generals look to have won an unprecedented amount of autonomy for the war from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Boris Yeltsin. "The military is determined to go to the end and it looks like politicians will not be able to stop them," said Dmitry Trenin, a military analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Center. "The government is too weak to [check military plans] while Putin's popularity largely depends on this campaign." The newspaper Izvestia agreed. The top half of Thursday's edition was occupied by an article under the headline "Yes, My General!" which argued the military was overstepping its authority by controlling refugee flows and mining regions of Ingushetia. "One hopes that generals euphoric at their success and at the public's approval won't in the future get involved in civilian matters while citing the Chechen-Ingush precedents," Izvestia wrote. Yeltsin and Putin have explained the war in terms of restoring order to kidnapping- and crime-ridden Chechnya and stamping out "terrorism." "Russian soldiers and officers are bringing peace back to the long-suffering Chechen land," Yeltsin said last Wednesday in his most extensive comments on the war so far. Yet a day later, a public statement by Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev dramatically expanded the scope of the war from what politicians have been saying. Sergeyev said Russian troops had invaded Chechnya and would "never leave." Neither Yeltsin nor Putin have either contradicted or reinforced Sergeyev. But in a sign of the times, Interfax reported Thursday, citing "well-informed sources," that Yeltsin has awarded Hero of Russia medals to Sergeyev, Federal Security Service chief Nikolai Patrushev, foreign counterintelligence chief Vyacheslav Trubnikov and General Staff chief Anatoly Kvashnin. The last time Yeltsin so lavishly courted the nation's generals was in the wake of the Pristina airport adventure. In July, the president gathered top military officials in the Kremlin for a somewhat contradictory performance. Yeltsin warned them that relations with NATO and the United States were "a very sensitive, delicate and difficult issue,'' and told them, "Each one of you must pursue one policy, the policy of the president." That sounded like a rebuke, but Yeltsin then muddied the waters by singling out for special attention General Viktor Zavarzin - who led 200 paratroopers from Bosnia to seize the airport in the Kosovo capital. Yeltsin shook Zavarzin's hand and announced, "we must decorate Russian soldiers for Kosovo." Veterans of Russia's wars in Chechnya, like Shamanov, believe they could have won the first war if federal officials had not repeatedly ordered cease-fires for truce talks. The generals argue this only allowed Chechen rebels to regroup and strike again. "The most terrible thing is that a bitter taste remains from the last war - that the soldiers and officers of Russia gave everything they had, but were betrayed," Shamanov told Russian television last Saturday. "I will tell you directly and openly: For me, this war is above all to restore the trampled-upon honor of my motherland." Even as they warn darkly against betrayals, however, Russia's generals continue to say they have confidence in Putin. They believe it was Putin who convinced Yeltsin to give the military carte blanche; and they, along with everyone else, see Putin's popularity rising on the strength of their military prowess. As Putin's popularity may suggest, the Kremlin may be well satisfied leaving the military in the driver's seat. As Izvestia's article put it, "Russian politicians don't want to control the military's actions in the Caucasus." The test, of course, will come when the Russian campaign starts to falter. Alexander Iskandaryan, an expert on the Caucasus, said that day may well be coming. Iskandaryan noted that in the 1994-1996 war, federal forces never enjoyed much more than the illusion of control over its occupied territory. And he said it was repeated military defeats - and not repeated cease-fires - that forced the Kremlin to clinch a peace deal with Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov. "History will repeat itself" if the military convinces itself it controls Chechnya, Iskandaryan said. Colonel Charles Blandy, a military analyst with Great Britain's Sandhurst Military Academy who has followed Russia's wars in Chechnya, agreed. Both men said Russia should negotiate with Maskhadov now, while it can do so from a position of strength. But the generals, of course, oppose all such negotiations, and for the moment, they are not in the cards.
#5
Voice of America
DATE=11/3/1999
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=UNICEF / EASTERN EUROPE (L ONLY)
BYLINE=LISA SCHLEIN
DATELINE=GENEVA
INTRO: A study by UNICEF, the United Nations
Children's Fund, finds serious problems for millions
of children in the former Communist nations of central
and eastern Europe and of the former Soviet Union.
Lisa Schlein reports from Geneva.
TEXT: The study says the majority of the region's
150-million children are victims of shrinking
economies, inadequate social welfare programs, and the
spread of armed conflict.
The UNICEF report acknowledges that life for children
is improving in some countries of central and eastern
Europe -- notably the Czech republic, Hungary, and
Poland.
But it says conditions for children are generally
difficult in central Asia, the Caucuses, Russia,
Belarus, and Ukraine.
UNICEF regional adviser Yuri Oksamitniy says these
countries spend very little money on the welfare of
children. As a result, he says the health of children
and women has seriously deteriorated. And he says the
region has infant mortality rates that are quite high.
/// OKSAMITNIY ACT ONE ///
Although these rates are going a bit down, still
they are at a level which is three-four times
higher than in Europe, for example. A
surprisingly high level of maternal mortality
going up to 60 or 70 in several countries per
100-thousand live births.
/// END ACT ///
The report says so-called poverty diseases such as
diphtheria and tuberculosis have reappeared. And, it
says the number of HIV infections and other sexually
transmitted diseases has skyrocketed.
The UNICEF study finds government budgets for
education have shrunk considerably. In many countries
in the region, teachers are not getting paid and
fewer children are going to school.
Mr. Oksamitniy says a another problem is the lack of
adequate facilities for orphans and mentally retarded
children in Russia and Romania. He says these
children are thrown into institutions which are
underfunded and lack proper facilities. He says the
children are totally unprepared to face life when they
leave the institutions at age 16.
/// OKSAMITNIY ACT TWO ///
It's kind of a struggle. It's kind of a fight
for survival for these children. They may end
up in the street. They may end up in drugs or
any other forms of crime. Some of them, they
commit suicides.
/// END ACT ///
The report does not blame the social and economic
crises of the past 10 years solely on the process of
transition. It says many of today's problems have
their roots in the old communist governments of the
past.
#6 Russia: Chechen Operation Threatens Arms Treaty By Roland Eggleston Diplomats in Vienna say that Russia's military intervention in Chechnya has thrown into doubt the signing of an important treaty governing the deployment of troops and other conventional forces in all European countries. RFE/RL correspondent Roland Eggleston in Vienna spoke to negotiators with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and other diplomats. Vienna, 4 November 1999 (RFE/RL) -- The number of Russian troops and weapons in Chechnya already exceeds the limits set under the existing Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe -- known as the CFE treaty. And diplomats say the Russian contingent far exceeds what it would be allowed to deploy in the North Caucasus under the planned amendments to the treaty. Several said their governments are uneasy about accepting the new treaty in these circumstances. The diplomats include negotiators at the OSCE and embassy officials who keep in touch with the negotiations. All requested anonymity in their conversations with an RFE/RL correspondent. A senior Western diplomat told RFE/RL that Russia's standard response in the Vienna talks is that the limits have been exceeded because Russia has what it says are "supreme national interests" at stake in Chechnya. The diplomat said several countries consider that formulation to be an exaggeration. They fear that Moscow might raise the same claim about other areas to justify breaching the new CFE treaty. The diplomats said a decision on what to do should be made by Friday (Nov. 5), when work on the new treaty comes to an end. The treaty is scheduled to be signed in Istanbul later this month at an OSCE summit meeting (Nov. 18-19). The diplomats who spoke to RFE/RL declined to speculate on what decisions would be made on Friday. One of them said: "It could go either way. The doubts are strong. But there is also a strong desire by some countries to get something down on paper which can be held up to Russia, so that it can be told: 'This is what you committed yourself to do.'" The same diplomat said the problems regarding the Istanbul summit were raised by U.S. President Bill Clinton at his meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Oslo on Tuesday. He said Clinton was "very forceful" and left Putin in no doubt about Washington's position on the Chechnya conflict. Before the meeting, Russia had agreed that the OSCE could send a team of observers to Chechnya and the neighboring Russian republic of Dagestan to monitor the humanitarian situation. A French diplomat told RFE/RL it would be a severe setback for European peace and security if the new treaty on conventional weapons is not signed at the OSCE summit. The existing CFE treaty -- which has been in force since 1992 -- regulates the number and location of troops and conventional weapons that may be held by individual European countries. The new treaty goes much further. Its basic idea is that no single country will be able to maintain military forces at levels that would enable it to hold a dominating position in Europe. NATO describes this concept as the "cornerstone" of a new security regime in Europe. Under the new treaty, countries will be assigned a maximum number of conventional forces of their own. They may also allow other countries to deploy a limited number of forces within their borders, up to a fixed limit of total forces. The limits specify numbers of tanks, helicopters and other equipment. A senior Western diplomat engaged in the negotiations on the new treaty said that during most of the talks, Russia argued there should be no restrictions on the number of troops and equipment it deployed in the Caucasus. This was strongly rejected by the U.S. and other NATO countries, as well as by Georgia and Azerbaijan. This diplomat also said Russia had long ignored the restrictions contained in the existing treaty, but other countries tolerated its behavior because the numbers were below those envisaged in the new treaty. But since September, he noted, the Russian build-up had far exceeded the limits for the North Caucasus in the new treaty. When asked by how much, the diplomat responded: "Way, way beyond the limits." He added that, when challenged, Russia always repeated its claim that supreme national interests were at stake. The Vienna-based diplomats said that, in advance of the Istanbul summit, Russia has made some gestures toward meeting the concerns expressed by other countries. In the past few days, they said, Russia has provided some details of troop movements and the number of forces deployed in the North Caucasus. This was in response to demands from OSCE members for more transparency about Moscow's military operations in the area. NATO's 19 members and other countries want to verify these figures in accordance with their rights under previous OSCE agreements. Russia has promised to allow foreign inspectors to monitor the situation, but said this can happen only when it is, in Moscow's phrase, "physically possible." This reservation has dismayed NATO members and several other countries. For the past two months, NATO and the U.S. separately have also sought from Moscow a political declaration at the highest level on the new CFE treaty. They wanted an affirmation of Russia's commitment to honoring the new treaty's clauses on the deployment of conventional forces. Western diplomats said that Prime Minister Putin provided such a declaration in Oslo on Tuesday. Another demand on Russia in advance of the Istanbul summit is for progress on matters such as the military withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova. A senior diplomat said there had been no real movement by Russia to meet these demands. One diplomat summed up the situation yesterday in these words: "We have the high-level statement committing Russia to the CFE. We have some progress on the transparency of military action in the North Caucasus, and not much on Georgia and Moldova." Whether that is enough to meet the OSCE's demands on Russia will probably be decided on Friday.
#7 US State Department 04 November 1999 Sestanovich Statement on Chechnya to Senate Committee Nov. 4 (Albright advisor criticizes Russia on force, refugees, human rights) While emphasizing Russia's "obligation to protect itself and its citizens from terrorist and other attacks," U.S. Ambassador-at-Large Stephen Sestanovich told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee November 4 that "this obligation does not and cannot justify indiscriminate attacks on civilians, the blocking of borders to prevent civilians from fleeing, or other violations of human rights." "How Russia resolves these issues," Sestanovich continued in his prepared statement, "how it counters this insurgency and how it treats its own people -- will determine what kind of country it will become and what kind of relationship we have with it. That will be Russia's challenge and ours." Sestanovich, who is special advisor to the Secretary of State for the New Independent States, characterized Russia's response to terrorism in Chechnya as "deeply troubling" because of the "indiscriminate use of force," the growing humanitarian crisis and the human rights violations committed against certain ethnic groups. In addition, he said, the United States is concerned that the violence in Chechnya could "spread beyond Russia's borders and pose threats to the independence and security of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia." Sestanovich also expressed concern that the adapted Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty that was to have been signed at the summit of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Istanbul November 18-19 may be in jeopardy because Russian deployments in the North Caucasus exceed those allowed under the document. However, he termed "a step in the right direction" the news that Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has invited an OSCE mission to visit the North Caucasus. The United States has said repeatedly "that there cannot be a purely military solution to the conflict in Chechnya," Sestanovich told the committee. "A durable settlement requires dialogue and the participation of regional leaders. Unfortunately, neither the Russian government nor Chechen leaders have shown much interest in such a dialogue, and the military escalation that is underway obviously makes it very difficult to open talks."
#8 Date: Wed, 03 Nov 1999 From: Brian Taylor (by way of David Johnson) Subject: Moscow News article Moscow News 26 October-1 November 1999 Superpower Rogueness By Brian Taylor Brian Taylor is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Oklahoma. The appearance of a new draft Russian military doctrine once again has tongues wagging in Moscow, Washington, Brussels, and other major international capitals. "What does it mean?" ask the politicians and the experts. Frankly, not much. The new draft is likely to be even shorter-lived and less consequential than the 1993 version that it is designed to replace. The aspect of the new doctrine that has attracted the most attention is what First Deputy Chief of the General Staff Colonel-General Valeriy Manilov referred to as the "basic contradiction of the current period." This contradiction, according to the draft doctrine, is between the striving of one superpower to establish a uni-polar world based on force and a second tendency toward the creation of a multipolar world based on a balance of national interests and international law. Modesty seemingly prevented the authors from naming the offending superpower. To preserve the anonymity of the miscreant, we will refer to it with random initials rather than its full-name - say, USA. Now, this "USA" certainly has been working overtime to create the impression that it has boundless ambitions. NATO expansion, the war in Kosovo, and moves toward withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty of 1972 are all indicators of this trend. The failure of the US Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) last week is just the latest example of what the American political scientist Samuel Huntington refers to as the "rogue superpower" tendencies of the USA. Moreover, perhaps it is a step forward from the "Basic Principles of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation" (1993) that a potential enemy has been found. In 1993 it was declared that Russia "does not consider any state its adversary." Military officers complained that it was impossible to carry out military reform without some idea of who the threat is. Former Minister of Defense Igor Rodionov's enumeration of every state that bordered Russia and the near-abroad as a potential enemy, from Norway to Japan, was hardly an improvement - more geography than politics, the critics noted. So at last an opponent has been found. But even Americans sympathetic to Russian concerns (if this phrase is not considered oxymoronic) cannot overlook some of the contradictions and steps backward in the new draft doctrine. Most important, there is no acknowledgement that a state's national security concept and military doctrine have to be based on a balancing of means and ends. The 1993 military doctrine noted the need to take account of "the economic possibilities of the country" and the 1997 National Security Concept stated that "the economy is the main cause of the emergence of a threat to the Russian Federation's national security." This basic point about the relationship between economic means and strategic ends is absent from the new draft military doctrine - one hopes that it remains in the new national security concept under consideration. In this respect the new draft doctrine appears wildly ambitious. The entire Russian Federation budget in 2000 is little more than ten percent of the US military budget. If we add in the economic and military power of the rest of NATO the disbalance becomes even more extreme. Trying to create a countervailing alliance with China and India, let alone smaller nations like Iraq and Libya, is hardly going to change this basic fact - and is extremely unlikely to materialize anyway. If Russia would not agree to play second fiddle to the US, it is hardly likely to accept this role in its relations with China. Moreover, a map and a list of places where Russian forces have seen action in the last decade show rather clearly that Russia's main threats are not in the West, but in the South. 18-year old boys digging in for the winter on the Terek probably care little about the polarity of the international system. Spending limited resources on preparing for a highly unlikely conflict with the West will not advance Russian security. Finally, a prominent theme from the 1993 doctrine has largely disappeared - that of countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Notwithstanding the debacle in the US Senate over the CTBT, Russia and the US share a common interest in this regard, as bilateral programs such as the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program demonstrate. Even the American pursuit of national-missile defense should be seen not as an attempt to dominate Russia but as a clumsy and misguided response to proliferation fears. Regardless of the merits or flaws of the new draft doctrine, it is likely to be short-lived. With new elections and the end of the Yeltsin era approaching, we can expect a new national security concept and military doctrine in a few years from the new boss. The British rock star Elvis Costello once sang that "pretty words don't mean much anymore." This sentiment also applies to Russia's new draft military doctrine. Russia's future security will depend more on political and economic development, including the building of a state capable of carrying out its basic functions (collecting taxes, paying salaries and pensions, etc.) and fighting crime and corruption, than it will on the contents of any doctrine or concept.
#9
US State Department
04 November 1999
Amb. Vershbow Remarks at Moscow State Institute Oct. 28
("Time for Russia to turn the page and resume cooperation")
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Alexander Vershbow, in what he called a
"brutally frank" address at the Moscow State Institute for
International Relations October 28, outlined the present uneasy state
of NATO-Russia relations, criticized Russia for many of its actions
during the Kosovo crisis, and called on Russia "to view NATO and its
offers of cooperation not through the prism of the past, but in the
light of the new possibilities a changing world presents us."
For NATO's part, he added, "we are ready to listen to Russia's side of
the argument."
Vershbow outlined the goals and attributes of NATO today, noting that
"the only reference to Russia in our new Strategic Concept is in the
context of cooperation and partnership."
The Kosovo crisis, he said, "showed how important it is to strengthen
NATO's partnership with Russia. That partnership was important in
early efforts to manage the Kosovo crisis and was even more important
at the end in solving it. However, the NATO-Russia relationship broke
down at the height of the conflict."
Outlining the basis for NATO's actions against Kosovo -- UN Security
Council Resolution 1199, which Russia supported -- Vershbow observed
that "Russia hampered efforts to find a political solution at the
Rambouillet and Paris negotiations, leaving no alternative but the use
of force."
Russia also made the mistake, he maintained, of suspending
consultations in the Permanent Joint Council (PJC) as soon as the NATO
air campaign began, shutting off "an important channel through which
we could have explained our respective positions and perhaps found
ways to cooperate in finding an early solution to the crisis."
Although Russia "did decide to join with us in finding a solution
through the mechanism of the G-8," and thus helped "restore the UN
Security Council to the role it should have been playing all along,"
Vershbow said, "NATO-Russia cooperation is still running on only one
cylinder. Russia insists that PJC can only address Kosovo, and has
frozen other aspects of our work under the Founding Act."
Vershbow said NATO believes partnership has to be "a two-way street,"
and that NATO is "upholding its side of the bargain" in Kosovo and is
prepared to engage on other issues whenever Russia is ready. "We
believe it is time for Russia to turn the page and resume cooperation
on other issues where there is a common interest."
Some of those issues, Vershbow said, include: military strategies and
doctrines so as "to dispel misperceptions"; preventing proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction; theater missile defense against rogue
states; regional security problems in areas such as Southeastern
Europe and the Caucasus; arms control; military and political
interoperability during peace support operations; military-industrial
cooperation; and the retraining of retired Russian military officers.
He praised the "excellent" cooperation in Kosovo between NATO and
Russian military forces on the ground, noting "it is clear that our
forces are working closely together with the same mission, the same
rules of engagement, and the same commitment to an even-handed
application of the UNSC resolution."
Vershbow also discussed the results of the previous day's PJC meeting
to discuss NATO-Russian cooperation in Kosovo. "In contrast to the
first two meetings (which I have frequently compared to a visit to the
dentist, Dr. Kislyak), this meeting led to positive conclusions," he
said. "NATO and Russia agreed on how their respective KFOR forces
should manage many of the sensitive issues that remain in implementing
the peace in Kosovo... We still have our differences, but our
cooperation in Kosovo is on the right track. Therefore, we believe it
is time for Russia to turn the page and resume cooperation on other
issues where there is a common interest."
While acknowledging that many people in Russia and in NATO countries
are skeptical about what can be gained through NATO-Russia cooperation
and partnership, Vershbow said that "for me and all my colleagues on
the North Atlantic Council, there is nothing that matters more than
getting our relationship with Russia right."
#10 Intellectualcapital.com November 4, 1999 Long Billions, Short Millions by Amitai Etzioni Amitai Etzioni is a university professor at George Washington University and the author of Winning Without War and The Hard Way to Peace. He can be reached at etzioni@gwu.edu A leading item in the competition for the most inane piece of public policy of the 1990s is Congress' refusal to extend and expand the program that provides a select group of former Soviet scientists with a meager salary of about $7,000 a year. These salaries are being paid to keep them working on civilian projects, rather than further developing nuclear weapons or sharing their knowledge with terrorist supporting governments. (Funds also have been refused for converting the scientists’ labs from military to commercial use.) The total State Department budget for these scientists’ salaries (under a program called International Science and Technology Centers) requested by the Clinton administration was $274 million over five years, some $51 million per average year. The amounts involved are quite a bit lower than the funds the press reports that Russian political leaders and their associates have siphoned off to cover their credit-card debts, overseas junkets and simple fattening of their Swiss bank accounts from the billions we granted Russia. The wrong target Republicans in Congress have raised several kinds of objections to converting these nuclear swords into plowshares. They fear that the program will turn into a new welfare racket, in which former Soviet nuclear scientists will stay "forever" on the American dole. Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC) and Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), have complained that the civilian program has so far failed to turn most of the labs involved into commercially viable "profit centers." This is hardly astonishing, given that even in the much more benign American context, attempts to convert military facilities and talents into commercial ones have been slow, prohibitively expensive and often unsuccessful. The talents needed to make bombs are somehow rather distinct from those required to develop and market washing machines and toasters. Attempts to convert military talents into commercial ones have been slow and expensive Republicans also have complained, drawing on a study by the General Accounting Office (GAO), that the expenditures of Russian facilities are not monitored closely enough. Some of the funds, it has been reported, do not end up quite where they are supposed to. Having recently been to Russia, where I witnessed the depth and scope of the prevailing corruption, it is hard to expect otherwise. Moreover, funding spillage has not stopped us in the past from continuing to ship billions to Russia for privatization and for economic development. Congress objected to taxes paid by the program to Russia and the cut American contracts having been taken out of the budget. Actually, these criticisms apply to some programs run by the Defense Department, trying to convert so-called nuclear cities, but not to those conducted by the State Department. One cannot help but wonder if the difference between those programs whose funding is continued and those that pay for the civilian employment of Russian scientists where funding is being cut off, is the money American corporations get off the deal. Big business gains a goodly portion of the orders placed by the Russians using the "economic development" billions and, hence, lobbies Congress for more such grants. At the same time, these corporations stand to gain little, if anything, if we succeed in stopping Russian nuclear specialists from moving to or working for rogue states, so who cares if the program ends? A valuable proposition The total amount of money involved, an increase of merely $170 million from the previously allotted $104 million, is minimal even when projected over five years. It sounds like a lot of dough, until one compares it to most items in our defense budget; for instance, compare it to the billion-and-a-half dollars that Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) inserted in the just-approved defense bill for building a naval vessel in his state. Too bad the Navy neither needs nor wants it. Moreover, others, including the European Union, Norway, Canada, Japan and even global financier George Soros, are picking up part of the total costs of the conversion drive. If we cut back our support, one hardly can expect these countries to maintain their contributions, let alone pick up the slack, given their weaker economic condition and sense that the United States already has greatly fallen behind on its other international obligations, especially paying its United Nations dues. We seem to be entering an especially partisan period -- particularly when it comes to foreign policy. But given the small amounts involved and the obvious merit of the plowshare project, maybe this can be one area in which party differences are left at the Capitol's doors. After all, it does not take a Ph.D. in nuclear physics or strategic studies to realize the value of providing harmless pursuits to the scientists involved or trying to slow down the proliferation of nuclear know-how to rogue states such as Iraq and Iran. If all else fails, maybe Congress could take the millions needed for the plowshare project from the "economic development" billions we have been granting Russia with next to no conditions attached.
#11 RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 215, Part I, 4 November 1999 PUTIN'S POPULARITY REPORTEDLY SOARS. According to a recent survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation among 1,500 people in 29 regions, 29 percent of Russians would vote for Prime Minister Putin in presidential elections if those elections were held on 6-7 November 1999, AP reported. Foundation director Aleksandr Olson said the rating exceeds the previous record, held by General Aleksandr Lebed in 1996. According to AFP, the polling group VTsIOM will soon release a survey also showing strong support for Putin. Addressing a meeting of rectors of higher-education institutions in Russia on 3 November, Putin suggested that Russia needs a new national ideology based on patriotism, Interfax reported. "One ideology was lost and nothing new was suggested to replace it," Putin said. "Patriotism in the most positive sense of this word" must be the backbone of the new ideology. JAC