CDI Russia Weekly

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Edited by David Johnson
ISSUE #54JUne 25, 1999


The CDI Russia Weekly is an e-mail newsletter that carries news and analysis on all aspects of today's Russia, including political, economic, social, military, and foreign policy issues. With funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, CDI Russia Weekly is a project of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information (CDI), a nonprofit research and education organization.


Contents

  1. Itar-Tass: Ivanov: Despite Damaged Relations No New Cold War.
  2. In These Times: Fred Weir on Russia and the West.
  3. Moscow Times: Sarah Karush and Brian Whitmore, JFK Files May Yield Clues Into ... Yeltsin?.
  4. AFP: Prosecution Calls For 12-Year Sentence Against Russian Journalist.
  5. AFP: Chernomyrdin Urges Post-Kosovo U.N. Reforms.
  6. Itar-TAss: Ivanov: START II Russia's Top Priority.
  7. Interfax: Russian Military Exercises Consider Balkans Conflict.
  8. Moskovskiy Komsomolets: Costs of Russia's Peacekeeping Force in Abkhazia Assessed.
  9. Interfax: Zhirinovskiy Predicts NATO Use of Force in Ukraine.
  10. Interfax: NATO Said To Increase Intelligence in Russia.
  11. Interax: Russia: Nuclear Weapons at US Bases During Kosovo War.
  12. Moskovskiy Komsomolets: Financiers Upbeat on Outlook for Russia.
  13. RFE/RL: Floriana Fossato, Russia: Foreign Policy Provokes Contradictory Feelings.
  14. 14. Moscow Times: Pavel Felgenhauer, DEFENSE DOSSIER: Pacts Don't Protect Russia.
  15. Reuters: Wake Up To Y2K Bug, Duma Tells Russia.
  16. Interfax: Russian-US Trade Levels Viewed.
  17. RFE/RL NEWSLINE: STEPASHIN SAYS ECONOMIC RECOVERY ALREADY STARTED... AS TRUE STATE OF INDUSTRY REMAINS UNCERTAIN; DUMA MEMBERS PASS MORE IMF LEGISLATION.

#1
Ivanov:  Despite Damaged Relations No New Cold War  

Moscow, 23rd June, ITAR-TASS correspondents Irina 
Bazhenova and Sergey Rudchenko: "The war in the Balkans damaged Russia's 
relations with the NATO member-counties. This is a fact and we have to 
come to terms with it," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said today 
at a news conference on the results of talks with the Danish Foreign 
Minister Helveg Petersen. 

We have kept in permanent contact with most of the NATO 
member-countries in order to maintain dialogue and prevent more serious 
consequences in our relations with these countries. And it is through 
this dialogue that we have found a way out of the situation and we are 
satisfied that, thanks to joint efforts, we have succeeded in ending the 
war and beginning the process of a political settlement, Ivanov said. 

"Russia is not interested in a return to the period of "Cold War" and 
confrontation," the foreign minister said. "We are in favour of 
developing mutually advantageous and equal relations with the NATO 
member-countries. And now that the war is over we must use our joint 
efforts to rebuild all the positive aspects in our relations which have 
built up over recent years. Russia has an interest in this and will do 
everything expected of her." 

Igor Ivanov stressed the need to "draw lessons from this tragedy", and 
the main lesson, he said, is "to strengthen in every way the 
international and regional security structure system, and especially the 
UN". 

"We must continue to develop cooperation on the basis of strict respect 
for the norms of international law," Ivanov said, pointing to "a very 
important element - the development of mutual trust".

Back to the top



#2
From: "Fred Weir"(fweir@glas.apc.org)
Subject: Russia and the West
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 1999 
David: this is for forthcoming issue of In These Times

BY FRED WEIR
MOSCOW

After a nasty Cold War-style scare over NATO's war in Yugoslavia,
relations  between Russia and the West appeared to return quickly to a
cuddly  post-communist partnership. Boris Yeltsin, arriving in Cologne,
Germany, on  June 20 for a summit of the Group of Eight leading industrial
countries,  greeted U.S. President Bill Clinton like a long lost brother,
bear-hugged  German Chancellor Gerhard Shroeder, arm-wrestled playfully with
Canadian  Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and declared it time "to put our
quarrels  behind us."

The talk at the one-day meeting turned almost exclusively on restarting
nuclear arms control, rescheduling Russia's crippling debt and reviving its
economic reforms. "This entire difficulty in Kosovo has been a great test
for the U.S.-Russian relationship," Clinton told a Russian TV audience
after the summit. "But it's a test I believe both countries have passed."

Back in Russia, things don't look so simple. Just one day after the summit
ended, Russia's armed forces commenced the biggest military exercise of the
post-Soviet era, turning the western region of the country--and neighboring
Belarus--into a vast stage for air, land and sea maneuvers unambiguously
dubbed "West '99." For six days, Russia's long-neglected and underfunded
forces mobilized to repel a hypothetical NATO invasion from the Arctic to
the Black Sea. "The war in Yugoslavia has given our military leaders much
more clout," says Valery Fyodorov, an analyst at the independent Center for
Political Trends. "Before the crisis there was no consensus on who was
Russia's potential enemy or if we even had one. Now everyone agrees the
threat comes from NATO. There is already a decision at the highest level to
revise our strategic doctrine to take account of this, and we can look
forward to big increases in defense expenditures in the near future."

Though Moscow played a key role in brokering the deal that ended NATO's
11-week air war against Yugoslavia, Russians feel they were brusquely
shouldered aside when it came to framing the peace. "NATO entered Kosovo
like a victorious army, completely forgetting that it was a U.N. mandate
facilitated by Russia that saved them from having to actually fight a long
and bloody ground war," says Nikolai Zyubov, an independent political
analyst. "They figured that having Russians as partners in the peacekeeping
force would be a nuisance, so they planned to just keep us out."

Whatever the truth of that allegation, there is no doubt Western leaders
were deeply chagrined when a small contingent of Russian soldiers bolted
from their peacekeeping duties in nearby Bosnia and arrived in Pristina
ahead of NATO troops. It was a brilliant propaganda coup--engineered in
Moscow's defense ministry--though it remains disturbingly unclear whether
Yeltsin signed off on it before or after the fact.

The dash to Kosovo underscored Russia's continuing aspiration to be
treated  as an equal player on the European stage, and the hazards of
ignoring it.  Yeltsin demanded Russia be given its own occupation sector,
arguing that  the troubled region's Serbian minority would not trust NATO
forces to  protect them from the vengeance of returning Albanian refugees.
"There is  strong logic in Moscow's position," says Zyubov. "If the Western
goal in  Kosovo was to protect multi-ethnic democracy in that region and to
lay the
foundations for a new, inclusive European security system, then they should
give Russia a major role in the Kosovo peacekeeping force."

Instead, the outcome drove home post-Soviet Russia's vastly diminished
status. The tiny band of Russian paratroopers camped at Pristina airport
waited in vain for reinforcements from the motherland: NATO persuaded all
the surrounding countries to close their airspace to Russian planes. At the
Cologne summit, Russia quietly agreed to a deal in which about 3,500 of its
troops would patrol sectors of Kosovo firmly under control of leading NATO
members. "As a bottom line, Moscow can't afford the $150 million or so that
it would cost to maintain an independent force there anyway," says Viktor
Kremeniuk, a political expert at the Institute of Canada-U.S.A. Studies in
Moscow. "So we have to beg from NATO."

In Cologne, Yeltsin let his minions deal with the humiliating Kosovo
climbdown and spent his time talking with Clinton about the future of arms
control. The two decided to get stalled talks on START III, which aims to
cut the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States by half, back on
track by this fall. Yeltsin also broke a Russian vow never to re-open the
1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the keystone of Cold War arms control,
and told Clinton that Moscow is now willing to talk about it. "There is a
big effort on both sides to show everything is OK now. They both need that
for political reasons," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the liberal
Center for Strategic Studies. "Clinton's policy on Russia has been a
historic failure, so he needs some kind of results to stave off Republican
criticism in next year's U.S. elections. Yeltsin needs to pretend he's
still a big power player."

Behind the scenes, the Russian delegation pleaded for Western forgiveness
of $66 billion in Soviet-era sovereign debt. Moscow is faced with $17.5
billion in debt servicing charges this year alone, and cannot afford to pay
even a fraction of it. Default is imminent.

Beneath the revived symbolism of partnership, Russia's alienation from the
West continues. Without major initiatives to address the country's
crippling economic crisis, and a new European security deal that gives
Russia an equal place at the table, that trend will not be reversed. "The
summit was theatre meant to distract from the accumulating problems," says
Kremeniuk. "Arms control is good, but it's not the important issue it was
during the Cold War. As for debt relief, who cares whether they give it or
not? Everyone knows Russia is too far gone to pay anyway."

In These Times
2040 N. Milwaukee Ave.
Chicago, IL 60647
(773) 772-0100
(773) 772-4180 (fax)
Itt@inthesetimes.com

http://www.inthesetimes.com
To subscribe call 1-800-827-0270

Back to the top

#3
Moscow Times
June 25, 1999 
JFK Files May Yield Clues Into ... Yeltsin? 
By Sarah Karush and Brian Whitmore
Staff Writers 

President Boris Yeltsin does not believe that Oswald acted alone.  

This week, during a meeting in Cologne, Germany, Yeltsin handed U.S.
President Bill Clinton some 80 documents from the Kremlin archives about
the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy and about the man
fingered as the murderer, Lee Harvey Oswald.  

The thought of secret KGB files surfacing on Oswald and the Kennedy murder
may set a history buff's heart aflutter. But Russian scholars who assembled
these latest documents say they will not reveal anything new about the
assassination.  

"They don't contain any new revelations. There's nothing new or
sensational there," Vladimir Sokolov, a Foreign Ministry archivist who
helped gather the material, said in a telephone interview Wednesday.  

Sokolov said the package given to Clinton on Sunday contained documents
relating to Oswald's stay in the Soviet Union from 1959 to 1962, and about
the Soviet reaction to the 1963 assassination.  

Among the documents is Oswald's 1959 handwritten letter to "the Suprem
[sic] Soviet of the USSR" requesting Soviet citizenship. A copy was
published this week in the Kommersant newspaper.  

"I want citizenship because I am a communist and a worker. I have lived in
a decadent capitalist society where the workers are slaves," Oswald wrote.  

This is not the first time Yeltsin has opened the archives to reveal
material on the Kennedy assassination, however. His 1994 memoirs include an
appendix of KGB documents discussing Kennedy's murder. Yeltsin frankly
admits the appendix contains no historic revelations - mostly they are a
grab bag of KGB-collected rumor and speculation as to who killed the
American president.  

What is more interesting is Yeltsin's treatment of these materials. He
cites with approval one KGB officer's report to the Soviet Central
Committee that theorizes Kennedy was murdered by a conspiracy of Texas oil
magnates. The KGB officer, citing what amounts to gossip, says the Texans
contracted with Jack Ruby - the man who killed Oswald soon after he was
charged with Kennedy's murder - to arrange the assassination, with Oswald
as participant and patsy.  

That Big Texan business killed Kennedy is one of the many conspiracy
theories with currency. Lyndon Johnson, Kennedy's vice president, was a
Texas politician with Oval Office ambitions. Kennedy, meanwhile, had
infuriated big oil with the Kennedy Act of 1962, which slapped new taxes on
U.S. oil companies that would have cost them hundreds of millions of
dollars a year.  

Opinions as to who killed Kennedy vary wildly, of course. But Yeltsin
seems to see the hand of Texas oil on the trigger. After quoting the KGB
report, Yeltsin, apparently agreeing, continues in his own words:  

"Oswald was the most suitable figure for executing a terrorist act against
Kennedy because his past allowed for the organization of a widespread
propaganda campaign accusing the Soviet Union. ... Ruby and the instigators
of Kennedy's murder did not take into account the fact that Oswald
suffered  from psychiatric illness. When Ruby realized that after a
prolonged  interrogation, Oswald was capable of confessing everything, Ruby
immediately liquidated Oswald."  

But if Yeltsin finds the Kennedy murder intriguing, his motivations in
presenting Clinton new documentation on it are probably mixed.  

This gift to Clinton - who is an open admirer of Kennedy - comes as the
two countries are patching a relationship damaged by NATO's bombing of
Yugoslavia. Sokolov said Yeltsin initially ordered the documents to be
prepared for transfer to the Americans in October, a date that was then
postponed because of the Kosovo crisis.  

Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute,
called the documents "a symbol."  

"Yeltsin held on to them until he needed to show his close relationship
with Clinton," he said.  

"I wouldn't be surprised if the latest move is a play to Clinton's ego,"
agreed J. Michael Waller, vice president of the American Foreign Policy
Council, a Washington-based think tank highly critical of Clinton's
policies on Russia. "Clinton has always considered himself a latter-day
JFK. I think [the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service's] excellent
psychological profiling has assessed Clinton at this point in time to be
vulnerable to an approach that will play to his ego - and maybe persuade
him to make concessions to Russia."  

U.S. officials, taken aback at the unusual gift, have said the documents
will be made public only after they have been studied by intelligence and
defense agencies. The National Security Council said Wednesday that there
was no estimate as to when that might be, The Associated Press reported.  

Oswald, a former marine, arrived in Moscow on a tourist visa in October
1959, then applied for political asylum. He lived in Minsk until June 1962,
working at the Gorizont Radio Factory. In November 1963, President Kennedy
was killed in Dallas and Oswald was charged with his murder. Oswald was in
turn killed by Ruby before his guilt could be assessed by the courts.  

In 1991, 28 years after the murder, Mikhail Gorbachev ordered a KGB expert
commission to complete a study of the Soviet Union's files on Oswald and
the Kennedy assassination.  

The study was never published, and it is not clear if it is among the 80
documents given to Clinton. But in 1992 and 1993, Izvestia published a
series of articles based on interviews with KGB officers familiar with it.  

Izvestia quoted these sources as saying that Soviet authorities in the
early 1960s, after extensive surveillance, decided that Oswald would be of
no use as an intelligence asset. They also noted that Oswald had joined a
hunting club and bought a single-barrel shotgun, but was a rather poor
marksman.  

In its 1991 rehash of events, the KGB concluded that Oswald could not have
pulled the murder off alone. KGB officers Izvestia interviewed concluded
that "Oswald was incapable of preparing and executing an operation such as
the Kennedy assassination all by himself." They also denied that Marina
Prusakova, the drugstore employee Oswald met in Minsk and later married,
was a KGB agent.  

The files report that Oswald spoke Russian poorly, didn't get along with
many of his co-workers, complained about his wages and threw a temper
tantrum when his upstairs neighbor accidentally flooded his apartment.  

In June 1962, prior to leaving for the United States, Oswald reportedly
said to a neighbor: "You go on building your communism by yourselves. You
can't even smile like human beings here." 

Back to the top

#4
Prosecution Calls For 12-Year Sentence Against Russian Journalist 

MOSCOW, Jun 24, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) The prosecution called for
12 years' imprisonment against Grigory Pasko, a Russian naval captain and
journalist being tried for high treason in the far eastern port of
Vladivostok, ITAR-TASS quoted one of his lawyers as saying Thursday. 

The last phase of the trial, which resumed Monday, was being held behind
closed doors, and Pasco on Wednesday was denied a request for the press to
be present during closing arguments. 

Lawyer Oleg Kotlyarov said it had been announced that the trial was again
suspended for one week as the courtroom was needed for another case. 

Pasko, an investigative journalist who worked for the Pacific Fleet's
newspaper and was arrested in November 1997, is accused of revealing
secrets about the make-up and financing of Russia's Pacific Fleet and
details of accidents involving nuclear submarines. 

Russian prosecutors also believed Pasko handed video footage on the fleet's
dumping of radioactive waste in the Sea of Japan to Japan's NHK television,
which featured the material in a report about ecological crimes committed
by the Russian military. 

Pasko's lawyers have repeatedly insisted the information their client
handed over to the Japanese was already in the public domain. 

The journalist's case has received international attention, with Amnesty
International declaring Pasko a prisoner of conscience. 

The trial, which opened on November 14, has already been suspended 10 times
for various reasons. 
Back to the top

#5
Chernomyrdin Urges Post-Kosovo U.N. Reforms 

STRASBOURG, Jun 24, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) The Russian envoy on the
Balkans, Viktor Chernomyrdin, appealed Wednesday for a stronger Security
Council to enable the United Nations to stand up to regional pressures. 

"We cannot allow the U.N. role to be weakened," he said in a speech to the
Council of Europe parliamentary assembly which was debating the situation
in Yugoslavia. 

If not strengthened by reforms, "the U.N. could follow the undesirable path
taken by the League of Nations, which proved unable to deal with the rigid,
egotistical stance of numerous European powers and collapsed under the

weight of its inconsistencies," Chernomyrdin said. 

He called for the Security Council to be reformed with adoption of the
principle of joint decision-making and joint responsibility. 

He said the war in Kosovo may be over, but justice and equality were
required in order to ensure lasting peace and stability. 

In the U.N. Security Council vote on a Kosovo settlement earlier this
month, China agreed to abstain rather than use its veto despite opposition
to terms of the peace plan. 

Beijing feared NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia, bypassing U.N. authority,
could be used to justify future intervention if, for example, tensions
erupted in its autonomous region of Tibet or over Taiwan, which China
regards as a renegade province.

Back to the top

#6
Ivanov: START II Russia's Top Priority  

MOSCOW, June 22 (Itar-Tass) - Foreign Minister 
Igor Ivanov said making the START-2 treaty take effect is very important, 
and Russia will spare no effort to achieve it. 

"The entering into force of the Russian-U.S. START-2 treaty is a 
top-priority task for us, and we will be striving to achieve it," Ivanov 
told the First World Congress of Russian Press. 

G8 leaders came to understand at a recent summit in Cologne that Russia 
and the U.S. will "help ratify this treaty." 

Meanwhile, Ivanov expressed concern over Washington's actions aimed at 
disrupting the ABM treaty. 

"The U.S. is putting into practice the deployment of the nation-wide ABM 
system. This is dangerous and can destroy the basis of strategic 
stability and the whole disarmament process," he said. 

Meanwhile, he expressed hope that "Russia and the U.S. will be factors of 
stability and security." 
Back to the top

#7
Russian Military Exercises Consider Balkans Conflict  

MOSCOW, June 22 (Interfax) -- The just-ended 
Balkan military operations are being taken into consideration during the 
'West '99' strategic command headquarters maneuvers, First Deputy Chief 
of Staff of the General Headquarters Yury Baluyevsky said at a briefing 
in Moscow Tuesday. However, this exercise was planned last year and it 
"is not a demonstration of muscle" in response to the NATO military 
campaign in Yugoslavia, Baluyevsky said. "Maneuvers of this scale have 
not been held in the USSR or Russia since 1985," he noted. The command 
structures of five military districts and three fleets are involved in 
the maneuvers, he added. Belarussian military officials will work in the 
unified command body for the maneuvers. Kazakh commanders are attending 
as observers. Belarussian anti-aircraft forces may also take part in the 
exercise, he said. The Russian Strategic Rocket Force is participating in 
the maneuvers, Bluyevsky went on. He did not say whether the delivery of 
a nuclear strike would be simulated. "The development of the exercise 
will tell," he said. Russian President and Commander in Chief Boris 
Yeltsin "is not directly participating in leading the maneuvers," he 
said. "The results of the West '99 maneuvers will be reported to Yeltsin 
as is standard procedure," he said.

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#8
Costs of Russia's Peacekeeping Force in Abkhazia Assessed  

Moskovskiy Komsomolets
21 June 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Valeriy Batuyev: "Life Is Cheap: Berezovskiy Spurns Monument" 

Translated Text] Abkhazia presents a more frightening situation than 
Yugoslavia. The figures demonstrate this. Whereas we lost just 
four soldiers in Bosnia and Herzegovina over five years of Russian 
participation in the effort to achieve a settlement in the Yugoslav 
conflict, the number of lives lost over this same period in the zone 
of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict is 68! In addition, 153 military 
servicemen suffered serious wounds. And this is despite the fact 
that the war in Abkhazia officially ended back in 1993! 

Our lads are dying from bullets and mines emplaced by 
guerrillas. Were it not for our combat engineer personnel, the 
number of fatalities among our peacekeepers today would be several 
times higher. 

Over the five-year period, our combat engineers have disarmed 
an unbelievable number of explosive devices in Abkhazia--22,000! 
Some 1,500 of these were anti-personnel mines, 1,500 were anti-tank 
mines, and 18,000 were homemade devices. Our men constructed a 
monument this year. Right in Sukhumi. In honor of their fallen 
comrades. They did it with their own money--people contributed what 
they could. They requested financial assistance from Boris 
Berezovskiy, beck when he was secretary of the Russian Federation 
Security Council. But Berezovskiy said he had no money. To this 
day our men cannot forget this: "He was able to get computers for 
Raduyev. He always had enough money for him, but all he could do 
for us was send CIS flags!" 

Although it is well past time for our peacekeepers to return 
home (the mandate for peacekeeping operations has expired), the 
situation in the region remains adverse. Salvos ring out constantly 
from the Georgian and Abkhazian side. New mines have been emplaced. 

In addition, Shevardnadze points his finger at them, accusing them 
of doing nothing. It is shameful. Our men are risking their lives. 
A year ago they prevented a resumption of the war, putting an end to 
the armed clashes in Galskiy District. And what do they get for 
it? 

The lives of the peacekeepers here are not worth much. 

Neither Georgia nor Abkhazia has contributed a penny during the 
five-year period of Russia's peacekeeping operation. Funds are 
provided only by the Ministry of Defense. The Russian Ministry of 
Defense. In the first quarter of this year alone, some 23.458 
million rubles [R] flowed from the accounts of Russia's main 
military department to the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. 
On a monthly basis, R250 goes to the soldier serving basic term of 
service and R1,050--to the contract serviceman. While the contract 
serviceman in Yugoslavia receives $1,000, and the officer--$1,300. 

But it is not for money that our lads are going to Abkhazia. "Here 
in the zone of conflict, in this so-called 'hot spot,' we feel like 
real soldiers..." 

The situation is the same for our peacekeepers in 
Tajikistan.
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#9
Zhirinovskiy Predicts NATO Use of Force in Ukraine  

STRASBOURG, France, June 23 (Interfax-Ukraine) - 
Russian ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted on Wednesday that 
NATO will soon use armed force in Ukraine and the Transcaucasus. In 
Ukraine, the West would exploit a civil rights movement among the Crimean 
Tatars, who have returned to the autonomous Crimea region after the 
Stalin regime deported the indigenous Crimean ethnic group wholesale to 
the eastern Soviet Union during World War II, Zhirinovsky, leader of the 
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, told a news conference in Strasbourg. 

The West would then follow the Kosovo pattern, representing the Tatars as 
an oppressed ethnic minority and casting Ukrainian President Leonid 
Kuchma in the role of his Yugoslav counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic, the 
Russian nationalist said. "The Tatars are already arming," and may form 
an army next year similar to the armed ethnic Albanian groups in Kosovo, 
he said. The West would then bomb Ukraine, Zhirinovsky said. NATO also 
would take any opportunity to make war in the Transcaucasus, he said. 

Fighting will soon resume between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis and 
between Georgia and its breakaway Abkhazia region, the ultranationalist 
predicts. He said that the economic interests of Western European 
countries and the United States were behind many regional conflicts and 
that "the West will be supporting uprisings by national minorities" in 
the coming 10 to 20 years, "because this weakens its economic rivals." 
Back to the top

#10
NATO Said To Increase Intelligence in Russia  

MOSCOW, June 23 (Interfax) - Air Force Commander 
Anatoly Kornukov said that NATO member-countries stepped up their 
intelligence activity in Russia in connection with the current West '99 
strategic command headquarters maneuvers. NATO espionage became 
particularly active in the Barents Sea area and from Polish territory, 
Kornukov told Interfax Wednesday. The current air force maneuvers involve 
units from the Moscow military district, Rostov, St Petersburg and the 
military transport aviation division deployed in the Urals, he said. 
Regarding the damage done to the Yugoslav army by NATO, Kornukov said 
that it "lost less then 30% of the anti-aircraft weapons and around 40% 
of its aviation." Kornukov emphasized the need for "rapidly modernizing 
Russian aviation by installing the latest weaponry and more efficient 
anti-aircraft systems," he said.
Back to the top

#11
Russia: Nuclear Weapons at US Bases During Kosovo War  

MOSCOW, June 18 (Interfax) -- Several dozen U.S. 
tactical nuclear bombs were brought to NATO bases in Italy, Germany and 
Turkey during the first weeks of the operation in the Balkans, prominent 
environmentalist and corresponding member of the Russian Academy of 
Sciences Alexei Yablokov told Interfax. He quoted reports by European 
anti-nuclear organizations. 

Speaking of the nuclear aspect of the war in Yugoslavia, he said, "NATO's 
irresponsible behavior may lead to Belgrade developing its own nuclear 
arms in a few months. Everything is available there now - uranium, 
plutonium, and experts." Also, Yugoslavia has not signed the 1993 Paris 
Convention banning the production and use of war chemicals, Yablokov 
said. He stressed that immediately after the beginning of the bombings 
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic "urged all Serbs wherever they are 
to fight in any possible way the countries that attacked Yugoslavia, or 
virtually summoned them to terrorist actions." 

"Under these conditions leading NATO countries should think first before 
using crude force against Yugoslavia. The more they press Yugoslavia's 
spring, the worse the effect will be when it straightens out," Yablokov 
said.  
Back to the top

#12
Financiers Upbeat on Outlook for Russia  

Moskovskiy Komsomolets
23 June 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Report by Yuriy Zaynashev: "Stepashin Left Without Caviar. German 
Chancellor Schroeder for Moskovskiy Komsomolets on Soviet Debts" 

Frankfurt-am-Main -- ...No, if you think about it, 
we have a surprising country. Sergey Stepashin, the chairman of our 
Council of Ministers, demanded on arrival at the Cologne summit that 
Russia be fully included in the "big eight" as one of the world's richest 
powers. And his second point was to ask that two-thirds of Russia's debts 
be written off -- along with those of other poor countries such as Jordan 
or Guinea-Bissau. 

The Western leaders were unable to do both tasks at once. Keeping the 
Russians happy on the first point would be $100 billion cheaper than the 
second point. And the supreme council rapidly admitted Russia not only to 
the political (as had been the case hitherto) but also to the economic 
G-8. Chancellor Schroeder specially requested of press representatives: 
"You should now talk about the G-8, not the G-7 any more." 

But that does not mean very much -- the richest countries will still 
share out the money as before without their "poor relations" from the 
Russian Federation. For instance, the Westerners, the Americans, and the 
Japanese flew into Cologne days ahead of Stepashin and spent an entire 
evening dining without him -- on pike, sturgeon, and caviar, apparently. 

The West was unable to satisfy the second Russian request immediately. 
But the Germans cannot just forget about the $100 billion that they once 
lent Gorbachev. Answering a question from Moskovskiy Komsomolets at a 
press conference, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder stated: "In general the 
debts must be repaid. It is harder for me to say this than for the other 
leaders, because the bulk of these loans are owed to Germany. Under the 
Paris Club rules, Russia does not fit the definition of a poor country, 
for which debts are now being simply written off. But, given the 
difficult situation in Russia, we will be holding talks on restructuring 
the Soviet-era debts".... 

In principle Stepashin got what he was after -- we have already 
received a deferral on $16 billion of the Soviet $100 billion. And what a 
deferral -- for 25 years. 

And over the next two years it may be possible to repay nothing at all, 
with talks on payments to the West to resume only in 2001. For the time 
being nobody will be shouting at Yeltsin to "Hand over the money!" 

But this applies only to state debts. Gorbachev also borrowed from 
private German banks. In principle they could now institute legal 
proceedings and demand the seizure of our property abroad. A Moskovskiy 
Komsomolets staffer put that question to a representative of one of the 
largest lenders -- Dresdner Bank. The reply was that talks on a deferral 
would begin this year and would be held under the auspices of the German 
finance minister, since the German Government guarantees these loans. 

Clinton in general called for Moscow to be forgiven some of the Soviet 
loans. Thus, the West is already effectively starting to invest in the 
year-2000 Russian presidential campaign. But not just out of a fear that 
Yeltsin will be replaced by someone worse. There is also a more pleasant 
reason for us -- Europe's moneybags are once again starting to believe in 
Russia. Analysts at the Frankfurt exchange are saying that trading in 
Russian shares is now picking up. In the local stockmarket newsletter I 
even saw a separate advertisement about the Russian and other Asian 
markets. Investors are being encouraged to invest, since "following the 
crisis in Asia and Brazil these regional markets are facing strong new 
growth. The move has already started -- 'Asian tiger' shares are up 
100-percent in the last six months. Russia has exploded by 200 percent!" 

One of our oil companies has boosted its rating on the Berlin exchange by 
800 percent over the past five months! Breweries were up 200 percent last 
month alone. These fantastic rises are making even the most laid-back 
German brokers drool. First and foremost because oil and gas prices are 
rising. Second, because, at least outwardly, the situation at the top in 
Moscow remains stable. Admittedly, the financiers do not know what will 
happen if Yeltsin were suddenly to have a heart attack. The manager of a 
major U.S.-German investment company told our newspaper: "I believe that 
in 2001 Russian Eurobonds will be producing fantastic profits -- 29.9 
percent. Their prices will rise that quickly. Russia will pick up...." 
  
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#13
Russia: Foreign Policy Provokes Contradictory Feelings
By Floriana Fossato

After NATO began air strikes against Yugoslavia in March, many observers
noted the very angry Russian response and predicted a major and
long-lasting chill in relations between Moscow and the West. But now that
the bombing has ended, and particularly after a summit of the leaders of
the G7 states and Russia over the weekend, the tone seems to have again
shifted dramatically. Moscow correspondent Floriana Fossato analyzes the
causes for the change in tone and also looks at domestic criticism of the
country's foreign policy.

Moscow, 23 June 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Russian President Boris Yeltsin and
Western leaders attending a summit in Cologne last weekend sought to warm
relations following a Cold War-like chill caused by the NATO air campaign
against Yugoslavia.

Yeltsin displayed his more pragmatic diplomatic skills at the gathering of
leaders of the G-7 leading industrial nations plus Russia by choosing not
to repeat previous derogatory statements he has made about NATO. Analysts
in Moscow note Yeltsin's more conciliatory behavior came as he was seeking
the help of the leading industrialized nations in restructuring Russia's
huge foreign debt.

They also say that, for Yeltsin, the thaw in relations between Russia and
the West may have been triggered by other, more personal, concerns.

The daily "Kommersant" wrote yesterday that "Boris Yeltsin obtained at the
Cologne summit what he likes most -- universal attention and respect" by
the leading industrialized nations. The article's headline reads: "Yeltsin
Enjoyed Making Up After the Fight."

But several commentators say the summit and the abrupt change in tone
toward the West revealed Yeltsin as the main factor preventing the
development of a coherent Russian foreign policy.

One Moscow analysts sharing this opinion is Sergei Markov, director of the
Institute of Political Studies. He spoke yesterday with RFE/RL:

"Despite the fact that it can display strong moves from time to time,
Russia's foreign policy in general provokes contradictory feelings. First,
there isn't one foreign policy as such. There are several centers of power,
and each of them has its own policy. There is a foreign affairs ministry's
policy, a policy of the presidential administration, that of the defense
ministry, that of financial ministries, that of big corporations.... They
all coordinate weakly and sometimes they even openly clash.... Another
weakness of Russia's foreign policy is its lack of a strategic goal.
Russian politicians have not decided which are the country's strategic
interests and how to work to achieve them. Responsibility for this lies
mainly with Boris Yeltsin. The third important failing, of which Yeltsin is
also to be considered guilty, is that no decision-making mechanism is in
place."

Some in the Russian media agree with Markov.

The head of the political desk at "Kommersant" publishing house, Veronika
Kutzyllo, wrote in this week's "Kommersant Vlast" that Russia has "no
center carrying out strategic planning, studying different scenarios for
Russia and for the president in key situations." She added that Yeltsin's
administration and "busy intriguing" cannot be considered as performing
this role.

According to another commentary in "Kommersant-Daily," the lavish praise
given Yeltsin by Western leaders during the Cologne summit will actually
strengthen Yeltsin's inclination for what the paper called "risky moves."

Rushing troops to occupy the airport of Kosovo's capital, Pristina, ahead
of the arrival of NATO peacekeepers was the latest and most daring example
of what is considered Yeltsin's "risky" approach. Inside Russia, it was
widely seen as a brilliant achievement. It is still uncertain whether
Yeltsin ordered his generals to take the step, or whether once it took
place he simply chose not to distance himself from it.

However, it seems clear to most observers in Moscow that -- even if the
original idea did not come from the Kremlin -- Yeltsin exploited it to
achieve a goal considered paramount in Russian foreign policy: Making it
clear that Russia's role as a major player cannot be neglected on the world
stage.

Another Russian political analyst, Dmitry Furman -- in a commentary
published this week in "Obshaya Gazeta" -- expresses doubts about the
widespread feeling in Russia that Moscow proved more far-sighted than NATO
countries during the Yugoslav crisis.

He wrote that the end result of the developments in the Balkans are not
favorable for Moscow. He says relations with Europe and the United States
have been harmed. He says other CIS countries now look to NATO "as a force
that may help them resolve their own Kosovo-type conflicts, or, at the very
least, protect them from Russia." He adds that "perhaps there would not
have been such warm [Russian] relations with China, which has a Kosovo of
its own [in Tibet] and is understandably worried by the NATO operation."
But, Furman writes, this is all that Russia has to show for what he terms
its "hysterical response to the Kosovo crisis". He concludes by calling
that a "somewhat dubious achievement". 
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#14
Moscow Times
June 24, 1999 
DEFENSE DOSSIER: Pacts Don't Protect Russia 
By Pavel Felgenhauer 

After several months of acrimonious exchanges of insults between Moscow
and the West, the sun is shining again. Last Sunday in Cologne, President
Boris Yeltsin declared: "We need to make up after our fight. That is the
main thing."  

Last Friday at talks in Helsinki, Finland, Russia submitted to NATO
demands and agreed to stop insisting on a separate Russian zone of
responsibility in NATO-occupied Kosovo. In Cologne, after a hourlong
meeting with President Bill Clinton, Yeltsin agreed to begin a discussion
soon with the United States on revising the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty. Yeltsin also assured Clinton that the long-stalled START II arms
reduction treaty will soon be ratified. Clinton in return agreed to begin
serious talks on a follow-up START III agreement, concurrent with the ABM
talks.  

The new U.S.-Russian detente seems complete. But there is a snag:
Yeltsin's concessions do not amount to much in real terms.  

According to the text of the ABM treaty, Russia is actually legally
obliged to begin a discussion on amendments with the United States. This
process was established decades ago - the Soviet Union and the United
States seriously amended the ABM treaty in 1974.  

Of course, any future ABM amendment should be ratified to become law, and
such a ratification is hardly possible in Russia today, or anytime in the
future. Ratification of the beleaguered START II treaty is equally no more
than a daydream. In Germany, Yeltsin did not offer any concessions as
leader of a free state. He paid homage and pledged personal loyalty as a
vassal of rich Western states, but these pledges do not bind Russia.  

Yeltsin badly needs Western money to prop up his regime and Western
political support to fight a growing number of internal political foes that
are demanding his resignation. Western observers are wrong when they say
that Russia needs Western money and so is forced into humiliating
concessions. Yeltsin and his proxies need the money - not Russia. Ordinary
Russians will never see a cent of it - all will most likely be stolen, as
before. The Russians will get involved only when the West demands that its
"financial aid" be repaid with interest and imposes sanctions to ensure
repayment.  

Most Russians have already set their minds on what they may expect from
the West in the future. According to three recent polls, 73 percent of
Russians consider the NATO military operation in Yugoslavia as a direct
threat to Russia's security. The majority of those polled said that NATO
wanted to demonstrate its strength. The second most popular answer was that
NATO is trying to take over the Balkans in order to advance toward the
Russian borders to attack Russia. Most Russian military officers, of
course, agree with their countrymen that the West is a threat and a foe.
The Defense Ministry has often officially announced that any alteration of
the ABM treaty will lead to a breakdown of all other existing arms control
treaties.  

One could assume that such a "breakdown" would mean a renewed nuclear arms
race or even nuclear war. But in private, Russian officers are much more
cool. A Russian general involved in ABM discussions with the United States
once told me: "We cannot stop military-technical progress, though we try
our best. We know that as soon as the United States will be capable of
deploying a national ABM system to guard U.S. territory from enemy
missiles, they will deploy. The ABM treaty in itself will not deter the
Americans for a second."  

The bombing of Yugoslavia has proven that international agreements mean
nothing in Washington today, since there is no second superpower to enforce
compliance. But the Russian military also knows that the United States is
technically unable to build a credible national ABM defense system in the
coming decade. Maybe such a system cannot be built in 20 or even 30 years.
So there is plenty of time to negotiate. While the Russian nuclear threat
still exists and the U.S. ABM system is weak, Western aggression is not a
real option, no matter what Russian public opinion polls say.  

When the Russian military says that the current network of arms control
agreements will collapse because of a violation of the ABM treaty, they
actually mean that a new network will have to be negotiated. Clinton will
leave office in January 2001. The Yeltsin regime will most likely collapse
much earlier. But the professional military establishments on both sides of
the Atlantic will remain the same and arms negotiations will continue.
Professional military people worldwide hate defense spending cuts, but they
hate real war even more.  

Pavel Felgenhauer is chief defense correspondent for Segodnya.
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#15
Wake Up To Y2K Bug, Duma Tells Russia
June 24, 1999
[for personal use only]
By Adam Tanner

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's parliament told the nation Thursday to wake up
to the dangers of the 2000 computer glitch, but a new law provided no real
remedy for a problem Moscow has been slow to recognize.

The law, passed unanimously by the State Duma lower house, obliged
government and private entities to work out plans for averting chaos at
midnight on December 31.

Computer experts in the West have been busy for months to make sure that
older computer systems do not go haywire by mistaking the year 2000 for the
year 1900.

The new law marks a growing realization that Russia too is exposed to the
risks, which could shut down public utilities and throw air traffic into
confusion.

Shortly before the Duma vote, the government's top official overseeing the
so-called Y2K problem dismissed the dangers.

``Russia expects nothing terrible,'' Ilya Klebanov, deputy prime minister
for the military industrial complex, told Ekho Moskvy radio.

Although Russia has fewer computers than the West, experts have raised
fears because of the country's vast nuclear arsenal, atomic power stations
and other industrial facilities.

Fears of a Y2K flaw confusing military radar systems have prompted the
United States to propose joint staffing of missile early warning stations
to prevent a mistaken warning of a missile attack.

Cooperation on Y2K military issues has continued despite a halt in other
military ties because of the war in Yugoslavia.

Klebanov also said a government commission was set to be formed next month
and members would travel the country to check on progress against the bug.

Former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who was sacked in May, had set up a
commission in January to combine efforts by central and local government.

``Work is proceeding fruitfully, but as always there is not enough
financing,'' Klebanov said.

He said some ministries, such as those for atomic energy and fuel and
energy, were dipping into their reserves for funds to beat the bug.

Russian government experts have said the country needs $2-$3 billion
dollars to tackle the millennium bug. Military officials say they have just
$4 million to spend on upgrading the nuclear arsenal's computer brains.

By contrast, the U.S. state of Texas alone is spending $280 million to
fight the millennium bug.

The Duma legislation passed Thursday does not provide new funding but
obliges those who own computer systems to bear Y2K- related costs. It also
says entities with computer systems must warn users of possible failures in
the system and work out crisis plans in case failures occur.

Last week President Boris Yeltsin also issued a decree urging measures to
deal with the problem. 
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#16 Russian-US Trade Levels Viewed MOSCOW, June 18 (Interfax) - The volume of mutual trade between Russia and the U.S. has grown by over 150% since 1992, department chief of the Russian Trade Ministry Viktor Spassky said on Friday. Spassky was speaking at the closing of a meeting of a Russian- American working group for business cooperation between the Russian Far East and the U.S. West Coast. As exports have been growing more rapidly since 1994, Russia for the first time in decades has a positive trade balance with the U.S., he said. Last year, the U.S. ranked second after Germany in Russia's foreign trade turnover, with 6.2%. For the U.S., trade with Russia is not that important, as its share barely reaches 0.5%. As usual, the bulk of Russian exports is made up of raw materials, making up around 90% of total deliveries, namely ferrous metals, aluminium, precious metals, chemical products and fertilizer, oil and petroleum products, titanium and products made from it. Machinery, equipment and means of transportation constitute an insignificant share of Russian exports. Russia imports from the U.S. mainly engineering goods, food and agricultural materials, mainly poultry and tobacco. Spassky said that the shares of different U.S. states in exports to Russia changed last year, and the role of Pacific coast states grew. Washington was the biggest exporter at $1.078 billion. The rise in exports can be attributed mainly to the sale of Boeing-made aircraft. Spassky said that an important condition for the expansion of the business cooperation between the two countries was the revision of many provisions of U.S. legislation concerning trade with Russia at the beginning of the decade. For instance, Russia received the opportunity to benefit from the U.S. general system of preferences, allowing it to export many of its goods to the U.S. tax-free.

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#17
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 123, Part I, 24 June 1999

STEPASHIN SAYS ECONOMIC RECOVERY ALREADY STARTED... During a
discussion with Danish Foreign Minister Niels Holveg Petersen
on 23 June, Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin said that
Russia's economic recovery began earlier than forecasted.
Stepashin pointed to a rise in industrial output of 1.5
percent during the first five months of the year, the
stabilization of the ruble's exchange rate, and a monthly
inflation rate of less than one percent. He also declared
that the country's foreign investors were now returning. JAC

...AS TRUE STATE OF INDUSTRY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. The same day,
"Trud" reported that industrial output in May jumped 6.1
percent compared with the same month last year, but retail
trade turnover plummeted 14.3 percent over the same period.
At the same time, the average wage in May amounted to 1,465
rubles ($60) a month, which in terms of real purchasing power
represents a decline of more than one-third. Noting that
industrial output declined last May compared with the
previous month, Yevgenii Gavrilov, deputy director of the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, told "The Moscow Times" that he
is "more inclined to trust the May figure compared with
April" because it is calculated on the basis of physical
volume of output, which means that industrial production
could have contracted. JAC

DUMA MEMBERS PASS MORE IMF LEGISLATION... State Duma deputies
passed more bills on 23 June that are part of the package of
measures drafted by the government in accordance with its
agreement with the IMF. The law on the restructuring of
credit organizations, which passed on its second reading,
sets out the procedure for restructuring banks as well as
defining the status and property of the Agency for
Restructuring Credit Organizations, according to Interfax-
AFI. A second law allows the Central Bank to issue short-term
bonds until next year, while a third allows it to purchase
gold directly from producers. Both measures were approved on
their third and final reading. Duma deputies also approved a
bill that taxes luxury vehicles or cars with engines ranging
from 2,500 to 3,000 cubic centimeters on its second reading.
All bills must pass three readings before they are sent to
the upper chamber and later to the president for approval.
JAC 
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