
| ISSUE #54 | JUne 25, 1999 |
#1 Ivanov: Despite Damaged Relations No New Cold War Moscow, 23rd June, ITAR-TASS correspondents Irina Bazhenova and Sergey Rudchenko: "The war in the Balkans damaged Russia's relations with the NATO member-counties. This is a fact and we have to come to terms with it," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said today at a news conference on the results of talks with the Danish Foreign Minister Helveg Petersen. We have kept in permanent contact with most of the NATO member-countries in order to maintain dialogue and prevent more serious consequences in our relations with these countries. And it is through this dialogue that we have found a way out of the situation and we are satisfied that, thanks to joint efforts, we have succeeded in ending the war and beginning the process of a political settlement, Ivanov said. "Russia is not interested in a return to the period of "Cold War" and confrontation," the foreign minister said. "We are in favour of developing mutually advantageous and equal relations with the NATO member-countries. And now that the war is over we must use our joint efforts to rebuild all the positive aspects in our relations which have built up over recent years. Russia has an interest in this and will do everything expected of her." Igor Ivanov stressed the need to "draw lessons from this tragedy", and the main lesson, he said, is "to strengthen in every way the international and regional security structure system, and especially the UN". "We must continue to develop cooperation on the basis of strict respect for the norms of international law," Ivanov said, pointing to "a very important element - the development of mutual trust".
#2
From: "Fred Weir"(fweir@glas.apc.org)
Subject: Russia and the West
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 1999
David: this is for forthcoming issue of In These Times
BY FRED WEIR
MOSCOW
After a nasty Cold War-style scare over NATO's war in Yugoslavia,
relations between Russia and the West appeared to return quickly to a
cuddly post-communist partnership. Boris Yeltsin, arriving in Cologne,
Germany, on June 20 for a summit of the Group of Eight leading industrial
countries, greeted U.S. President Bill Clinton like a long lost brother,
bear-hugged German Chancellor Gerhard Shroeder, arm-wrestled playfully with
Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and declared it time "to put our
quarrels behind us."
The talk at the one-day meeting turned almost exclusively on restarting
nuclear arms control, rescheduling Russia's crippling debt and reviving its
economic reforms. "This entire difficulty in Kosovo has been a great test
for the U.S.-Russian relationship," Clinton told a Russian TV audience
after the summit. "But it's a test I believe both countries have passed."
Back in Russia, things don't look so simple. Just one day after the summit
ended, Russia's armed forces commenced the biggest military exercise of the
post-Soviet era, turning the western region of the country--and neighboring
Belarus--into a vast stage for air, land and sea maneuvers unambiguously
dubbed "West '99." For six days, Russia's long-neglected and underfunded
forces mobilized to repel a hypothetical NATO invasion from the Arctic to
the Black Sea. "The war in Yugoslavia has given our military leaders much
more clout," says Valery Fyodorov, an analyst at the independent Center for
Political Trends. "Before the crisis there was no consensus on who was
Russia's potential enemy or if we even had one. Now everyone agrees the
threat comes from NATO. There is already a decision at the highest level to
revise our strategic doctrine to take account of this, and we can look
forward to big increases in defense expenditures in the near future."
Though Moscow played a key role in brokering the deal that ended NATO's
11-week air war against Yugoslavia, Russians feel they were brusquely
shouldered aside when it came to framing the peace. "NATO entered Kosovo
like a victorious army, completely forgetting that it was a U.N. mandate
facilitated by Russia that saved them from having to actually fight a long
and bloody ground war," says Nikolai Zyubov, an independent political
analyst. "They figured that having Russians as partners in the peacekeeping
force would be a nuisance, so they planned to just keep us out."
Whatever the truth of that allegation, there is no doubt Western leaders
were deeply chagrined when a small contingent of Russian soldiers bolted
from their peacekeeping duties in nearby Bosnia and arrived in Pristina
ahead of NATO troops. It was a brilliant propaganda coup--engineered in
Moscow's defense ministry--though it remains disturbingly unclear whether
Yeltsin signed off on it before or after the fact.
The dash to Kosovo underscored Russia's continuing aspiration to be
treated as an equal player on the European stage, and the hazards of
ignoring it. Yeltsin demanded Russia be given its own occupation sector,
arguing that the troubled region's Serbian minority would not trust NATO
forces to protect them from the vengeance of returning Albanian refugees.
"There is strong logic in Moscow's position," says Zyubov. "If the Western
goal in Kosovo was to protect multi-ethnic democracy in that region and to
lay the
foundations for a new, inclusive European security system, then they should
give Russia a major role in the Kosovo peacekeeping force."
Instead, the outcome drove home post-Soviet Russia's vastly diminished
status. The tiny band of Russian paratroopers camped at Pristina airport
waited in vain for reinforcements from the motherland: NATO persuaded all
the surrounding countries to close their airspace to Russian planes. At the
Cologne summit, Russia quietly agreed to a deal in which about 3,500 of its
troops would patrol sectors of Kosovo firmly under control of leading NATO
members. "As a bottom line, Moscow can't afford the $150 million or so that
it would cost to maintain an independent force there anyway," says Viktor
Kremeniuk, a political expert at the Institute of Canada-U.S.A. Studies in
Moscow. "So we have to beg from NATO."
In Cologne, Yeltsin let his minions deal with the humiliating Kosovo
climbdown and spent his time talking with Clinton about the future of arms
control. The two decided to get stalled talks on START III, which aims to
cut the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States by half, back on
track by this fall. Yeltsin also broke a Russian vow never to re-open the
1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the keystone of Cold War arms control,
and told Clinton that Moscow is now willing to talk about it. "There is a
big effort on both sides to show everything is OK now. They both need that
for political reasons," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the liberal
Center for Strategic Studies. "Clinton's policy on Russia has been a
historic failure, so he needs some kind of results to stave off Republican
criticism in next year's U.S. elections. Yeltsin needs to pretend he's
still a big power player."
Behind the scenes, the Russian delegation pleaded for Western forgiveness
of $66 billion in Soviet-era sovereign debt. Moscow is faced with $17.5
billion in debt servicing charges this year alone, and cannot afford to pay
even a fraction of it. Default is imminent.
Beneath the revived symbolism of partnership, Russia's alienation from the
West continues. Without major initiatives to address the country's
crippling economic crisis, and a new European security deal that gives
Russia an equal place at the table, that trend will not be reversed. "The
summit was theatre meant to distract from the accumulating problems," says
Kremeniuk. "Arms control is good, but it's not the important issue it was
during the Cold War. As for debt relief, who cares whether they give it or
not? Everyone knows Russia is too far gone to pay anyway."
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#4 Prosecution Calls For 12-Year Sentence Against Russian Journalist MOSCOW, Jun 24, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) The prosecution called for 12 years' imprisonment against Grigory Pasko, a Russian naval captain and journalist being tried for high treason in the far eastern port of Vladivostok, ITAR-TASS quoted one of his lawyers as saying Thursday. The last phase of the trial, which resumed Monday, was being held behind closed doors, and Pasco on Wednesday was denied a request for the press to be present during closing arguments. Lawyer Oleg Kotlyarov said it had been announced that the trial was again suspended for one week as the courtroom was needed for another case. Pasko, an investigative journalist who worked for the Pacific Fleet's newspaper and was arrested in November 1997, is accused of revealing secrets about the make-up and financing of Russia's Pacific Fleet and details of accidents involving nuclear submarines. Russian prosecutors also believed Pasko handed video footage on the fleet's dumping of radioactive waste in the Sea of Japan to Japan's NHK television, which featured the material in a report about ecological crimes committed by the Russian military. Pasko's lawyers have repeatedly insisted the information their client handed over to the Japanese was already in the public domain. The journalist's case has received international attention, with Amnesty International declaring Pasko a prisoner of conscience. The trial, which opened on November 14, has already been suspended 10 times for various reasons.
#5 Chernomyrdin Urges Post-Kosovo U.N. Reforms STRASBOURG, Jun 24, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) The Russian envoy on the Balkans, Viktor Chernomyrdin, appealed Wednesday for a stronger Security Council to enable the United Nations to stand up to regional pressures. "We cannot allow the U.N. role to be weakened," he said in a speech to the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly which was debating the situation in Yugoslavia. If not strengthened by reforms, "the U.N. could follow the undesirable path taken by the League of Nations, which proved unable to deal with the rigid, egotistical stance of numerous European powers and collapsed under the weight of its inconsistencies," Chernomyrdin said. He called for the Security Council to be reformed with adoption of the principle of joint decision-making and joint responsibility. He said the war in Kosovo may be over, but justice and equality were required in order to ensure lasting peace and stability. In the U.N. Security Council vote on a Kosovo settlement earlier this month, China agreed to abstain rather than use its veto despite opposition to terms of the peace plan. Beijing feared NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia, bypassing U.N. authority, could be used to justify future intervention if, for example, tensions erupted in its autonomous region of Tibet or over Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province.
#6 Ivanov: START II Russia's Top Priority MOSCOW, June 22 (Itar-Tass) - Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said making the START-2 treaty take effect is very important, and Russia will spare no effort to achieve it. "The entering into force of the Russian-U.S. START-2 treaty is a top-priority task for us, and we will be striving to achieve it," Ivanov told the First World Congress of Russian Press. G8 leaders came to understand at a recent summit in Cologne that Russia and the U.S. will "help ratify this treaty." Meanwhile, Ivanov expressed concern over Washington's actions aimed at disrupting the ABM treaty. "The U.S. is putting into practice the deployment of the nation-wide ABM system. This is dangerous and can destroy the basis of strategic stability and the whole disarmament process," he said. Meanwhile, he expressed hope that "Russia and the U.S. will be factors of stability and security."
#7 Russian Military Exercises Consider Balkans Conflict MOSCOW, June 22 (Interfax) -- The just-ended Balkan military operations are being taken into consideration during the 'West '99' strategic command headquarters maneuvers, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the General Headquarters Yury Baluyevsky said at a briefing in Moscow Tuesday. However, this exercise was planned last year and it "is not a demonstration of muscle" in response to the NATO military campaign in Yugoslavia, Baluyevsky said. "Maneuvers of this scale have not been held in the USSR or Russia since 1985," he noted. The command structures of five military districts and three fleets are involved in the maneuvers, he added. Belarussian military officials will work in the unified command body for the maneuvers. Kazakh commanders are attending as observers. Belarussian anti-aircraft forces may also take part in the exercise, he said. The Russian Strategic Rocket Force is participating in the maneuvers, Bluyevsky went on. He did not say whether the delivery of a nuclear strike would be simulated. "The development of the exercise will tell," he said. Russian President and Commander in Chief Boris Yeltsin "is not directly participating in leading the maneuvers," he said. "The results of the West '99 maneuvers will be reported to Yeltsin as is standard procedure," he said.
#8 Costs of Russia's Peacekeeping Force in Abkhazia Assessed Moskovskiy Komsomolets 21 June 1999 [translation for personal use only] Article by Valeriy Batuyev: "Life Is Cheap: Berezovskiy Spurns Monument" Translated Text] Abkhazia presents a more frightening situation than Yugoslavia. The figures demonstrate this. Whereas we lost just four soldiers in Bosnia and Herzegovina over five years of Russian participation in the effort to achieve a settlement in the Yugoslav conflict, the number of lives lost over this same period in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict is 68! In addition, 153 military servicemen suffered serious wounds. And this is despite the fact that the war in Abkhazia officially ended back in 1993! Our lads are dying from bullets and mines emplaced by guerrillas. Were it not for our combat engineer personnel, the number of fatalities among our peacekeepers today would be several times higher. Over the five-year period, our combat engineers have disarmed an unbelievable number of explosive devices in Abkhazia--22,000! Some 1,500 of these were anti-personnel mines, 1,500 were anti-tank mines, and 18,000 were homemade devices. Our men constructed a monument this year. Right in Sukhumi. In honor of their fallen comrades. They did it with their own money--people contributed what they could. They requested financial assistance from Boris Berezovskiy, beck when he was secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council. But Berezovskiy said he had no money. To this day our men cannot forget this: "He was able to get computers for Raduyev. He always had enough money for him, but all he could do for us was send CIS flags!" Although it is well past time for our peacekeepers to return home (the mandate for peacekeeping operations has expired), the situation in the region remains adverse. Salvos ring out constantly from the Georgian and Abkhazian side. New mines have been emplaced. In addition, Shevardnadze points his finger at them, accusing them of doing nothing. It is shameful. Our men are risking their lives. A year ago they prevented a resumption of the war, putting an end to the armed clashes in Galskiy District. And what do they get for it? The lives of the peacekeepers here are not worth much. Neither Georgia nor Abkhazia has contributed a penny during the five-year period of Russia's peacekeeping operation. Funds are provided only by the Ministry of Defense. The Russian Ministry of Defense. In the first quarter of this year alone, some 23.458 million rubles [R] flowed from the accounts of Russia's main military department to the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. On a monthly basis, R250 goes to the soldier serving basic term of service and R1,050--to the contract serviceman. While the contract serviceman in Yugoslavia receives $1,000, and the officer--$1,300. But it is not for money that our lads are going to Abkhazia. "Here in the zone of conflict, in this so-called 'hot spot,' we feel like real soldiers..." The situation is the same for our peacekeepers in Tajikistan.
#9 Zhirinovskiy Predicts NATO Use of Force in Ukraine STRASBOURG, France, June 23 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Russian ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted on Wednesday that NATO will soon use armed force in Ukraine and the Transcaucasus. In Ukraine, the West would exploit a civil rights movement among the Crimean Tatars, who have returned to the autonomous Crimea region after the Stalin regime deported the indigenous Crimean ethnic group wholesale to the eastern Soviet Union during World War II, Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, told a news conference in Strasbourg. The West would then follow the Kosovo pattern, representing the Tatars as an oppressed ethnic minority and casting Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma in the role of his Yugoslav counterpart, Slobodan Milosevic, the Russian nationalist said. "The Tatars are already arming," and may form an army next year similar to the armed ethnic Albanian groups in Kosovo, he said. The West would then bomb Ukraine, Zhirinovsky said. NATO also would take any opportunity to make war in the Transcaucasus, he said. Fighting will soon resume between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis and between Georgia and its breakaway Abkhazia region, the ultranationalist predicts. He said that the economic interests of Western European countries and the United States were behind many regional conflicts and that "the West will be supporting uprisings by national minorities" in the coming 10 to 20 years, "because this weakens its economic rivals."
#10 NATO Said To Increase Intelligence in Russia MOSCOW, June 23 (Interfax) - Air Force Commander Anatoly Kornukov said that NATO member-countries stepped up their intelligence activity in Russia in connection with the current West '99 strategic command headquarters maneuvers. NATO espionage became particularly active in the Barents Sea area and from Polish territory, Kornukov told Interfax Wednesday. The current air force maneuvers involve units from the Moscow military district, Rostov, St Petersburg and the military transport aviation division deployed in the Urals, he said. Regarding the damage done to the Yugoslav army by NATO, Kornukov said that it "lost less then 30% of the anti-aircraft weapons and around 40% of its aviation." Kornukov emphasized the need for "rapidly modernizing Russian aviation by installing the latest weaponry and more efficient anti-aircraft systems," he said.
#11 Russia: Nuclear Weapons at US Bases During Kosovo War MOSCOW, June 18 (Interfax) -- Several dozen U.S. tactical nuclear bombs were brought to NATO bases in Italy, Germany and Turkey during the first weeks of the operation in the Balkans, prominent environmentalist and corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Yablokov told Interfax. He quoted reports by European anti-nuclear organizations. Speaking of the nuclear aspect of the war in Yugoslavia, he said, "NATO's irresponsible behavior may lead to Belgrade developing its own nuclear arms in a few months. Everything is available there now - uranium, plutonium, and experts." Also, Yugoslavia has not signed the 1993 Paris Convention banning the production and use of war chemicals, Yablokov said. He stressed that immediately after the beginning of the bombings Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic "urged all Serbs wherever they are to fight in any possible way the countries that attacked Yugoslavia, or virtually summoned them to terrorist actions." "Under these conditions leading NATO countries should think first before using crude force against Yugoslavia. The more they press Yugoslavia's spring, the worse the effect will be when it straightens out," Yablokov said.
#12 Financiers Upbeat on Outlook for Russia Moskovskiy Komsomolets 23 June 1999 [translation for personal use only] Report by Yuriy Zaynashev: "Stepashin Left Without Caviar. German Chancellor Schroeder for Moskovskiy Komsomolets on Soviet Debts" Frankfurt-am-Main -- ...No, if you think about it, we have a surprising country. Sergey Stepashin, the chairman of our Council of Ministers, demanded on arrival at the Cologne summit that Russia be fully included in the "big eight" as one of the world's richest powers. And his second point was to ask that two-thirds of Russia's debts be written off -- along with those of other poor countries such as Jordan or Guinea-Bissau. The Western leaders were unable to do both tasks at once. Keeping the Russians happy on the first point would be $100 billion cheaper than the second point. And the supreme council rapidly admitted Russia not only to the political (as had been the case hitherto) but also to the economic G-8. Chancellor Schroeder specially requested of press representatives: "You should now talk about the G-8, not the G-7 any more." But that does not mean very much -- the richest countries will still share out the money as before without their "poor relations" from the Russian Federation. For instance, the Westerners, the Americans, and the Japanese flew into Cologne days ahead of Stepashin and spent an entire evening dining without him -- on pike, sturgeon, and caviar, apparently. The West was unable to satisfy the second Russian request immediately. But the Germans cannot just forget about the $100 billion that they once lent Gorbachev. Answering a question from Moskovskiy Komsomolets at a press conference, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder stated: "In general the debts must be repaid. It is harder for me to say this than for the other leaders, because the bulk of these loans are owed to Germany. Under the Paris Club rules, Russia does not fit the definition of a poor country, for which debts are now being simply written off. But, given the difficult situation in Russia, we will be holding talks on restructuring the Soviet-era debts".... In principle Stepashin got what he was after -- we have already received a deferral on $16 billion of the Soviet $100 billion. And what a deferral -- for 25 years. And over the next two years it may be possible to repay nothing at all, with talks on payments to the West to resume only in 2001. For the time being nobody will be shouting at Yeltsin to "Hand over the money!" But this applies only to state debts. Gorbachev also borrowed from private German banks. In principle they could now institute legal proceedings and demand the seizure of our property abroad. A Moskovskiy Komsomolets staffer put that question to a representative of one of the largest lenders -- Dresdner Bank. The reply was that talks on a deferral would begin this year and would be held under the auspices of the German finance minister, since the German Government guarantees these loans. Clinton in general called for Moscow to be forgiven some of the Soviet loans. Thus, the West is already effectively starting to invest in the year-2000 Russian presidential campaign. But not just out of a fear that Yeltsin will be replaced by someone worse. There is also a more pleasant reason for us -- Europe's moneybags are once again starting to believe in Russia. Analysts at the Frankfurt exchange are saying that trading in Russian shares is now picking up. In the local stockmarket newsletter I even saw a separate advertisement about the Russian and other Asian markets. Investors are being encouraged to invest, since "following the crisis in Asia and Brazil these regional markets are facing strong new growth. The move has already started -- 'Asian tiger' shares are up 100-percent in the last six months. Russia has exploded by 200 percent!" One of our oil companies has boosted its rating on the Berlin exchange by 800 percent over the past five months! Breweries were up 200 percent last month alone. These fantastic rises are making even the most laid-back German brokers drool. First and foremost because oil and gas prices are rising. Second, because, at least outwardly, the situation at the top in Moscow remains stable. Admittedly, the financiers do not know what will happen if Yeltsin were suddenly to have a heart attack. The manager of a major U.S.-German investment company told our newspaper: "I believe that in 2001 Russian Eurobonds will be producing fantastic profits -- 29.9 percent. Their prices will rise that quickly. Russia will pick up...."
#13 Russia: Foreign Policy Provokes Contradictory Feelings By Floriana Fossato After NATO began air strikes against Yugoslavia in March, many observers noted the very angry Russian response and predicted a major and long-lasting chill in relations between Moscow and the West. But now that the bombing has ended, and particularly after a summit of the leaders of the G7 states and Russia over the weekend, the tone seems to have again shifted dramatically. Moscow correspondent Floriana Fossato analyzes the causes for the change in tone and also looks at domestic criticism of the country's foreign policy. Moscow, 23 June 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Western leaders attending a summit in Cologne last weekend sought to warm relations following a Cold War-like chill caused by the NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia. Yeltsin displayed his more pragmatic diplomatic skills at the gathering of leaders of the G-7 leading industrial nations plus Russia by choosing not to repeat previous derogatory statements he has made about NATO. Analysts in Moscow note Yeltsin's more conciliatory behavior came as he was seeking the help of the leading industrialized nations in restructuring Russia's huge foreign debt. They also say that, for Yeltsin, the thaw in relations between Russia and the West may have been triggered by other, more personal, concerns. The daily "Kommersant" wrote yesterday that "Boris Yeltsin obtained at the Cologne summit what he likes most -- universal attention and respect" by the leading industrialized nations. The article's headline reads: "Yeltsin Enjoyed Making Up After the Fight." But several commentators say the summit and the abrupt change in tone toward the West revealed Yeltsin as the main factor preventing the development of a coherent Russian foreign policy. One Moscow analysts sharing this opinion is Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies. He spoke yesterday with RFE/RL: "Despite the fact that it can display strong moves from time to time, Russia's foreign policy in general provokes contradictory feelings. First, there isn't one foreign policy as such. There are several centers of power, and each of them has its own policy. There is a foreign affairs ministry's policy, a policy of the presidential administration, that of the defense ministry, that of financial ministries, that of big corporations.... They all coordinate weakly and sometimes they even openly clash.... Another weakness of Russia's foreign policy is its lack of a strategic goal. Russian politicians have not decided which are the country's strategic interests and how to work to achieve them. Responsibility for this lies mainly with Boris Yeltsin. The third important failing, of which Yeltsin is also to be considered guilty, is that no decision-making mechanism is in place." Some in the Russian media agree with Markov. The head of the political desk at "Kommersant" publishing house, Veronika Kutzyllo, wrote in this week's "Kommersant Vlast" that Russia has "no center carrying out strategic planning, studying different scenarios for Russia and for the president in key situations." She added that Yeltsin's administration and "busy intriguing" cannot be considered as performing this role. According to another commentary in "Kommersant-Daily," the lavish praise given Yeltsin by Western leaders during the Cologne summit will actually strengthen Yeltsin's inclination for what the paper called "risky moves." Rushing troops to occupy the airport of Kosovo's capital, Pristina, ahead of the arrival of NATO peacekeepers was the latest and most daring example of what is considered Yeltsin's "risky" approach. Inside Russia, it was widely seen as a brilliant achievement. It is still uncertain whether Yeltsin ordered his generals to take the step, or whether once it took place he simply chose not to distance himself from it. However, it seems clear to most observers in Moscow that -- even if the original idea did not come from the Kremlin -- Yeltsin exploited it to achieve a goal considered paramount in Russian foreign policy: Making it clear that Russia's role as a major player cannot be neglected on the world stage. Another Russian political analyst, Dmitry Furman -- in a commentary published this week in "Obshaya Gazeta" -- expresses doubts about the widespread feeling in Russia that Moscow proved more far-sighted than NATO countries during the Yugoslav crisis. He wrote that the end result of the developments in the Balkans are not favorable for Moscow. He says relations with Europe and the United States have been harmed. He says other CIS countries now look to NATO "as a force that may help them resolve their own Kosovo-type conflicts, or, at the very least, protect them from Russia." He adds that "perhaps there would not have been such warm [Russian] relations with China, which has a Kosovo of its own [in Tibet] and is understandably worried by the NATO operation." But, Furman writes, this is all that Russia has to show for what he terms its "hysterical response to the Kosovo crisis". He concludes by calling that a "somewhat dubious achievement".
#14 Moscow Times June 24, 1999 DEFENSE DOSSIER: Pacts Don't Protect Russia By Pavel Felgenhauer After several months of acrimonious exchanges of insults between Moscow and the West, the sun is shining again. Last Sunday in Cologne, President Boris Yeltsin declared: "We need to make up after our fight. That is the main thing." Last Friday at talks in Helsinki, Finland, Russia submitted to NATO demands and agreed to stop insisting on a separate Russian zone of responsibility in NATO-occupied Kosovo. In Cologne, after a hourlong meeting with President Bill Clinton, Yeltsin agreed to begin a discussion soon with the United States on revising the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Yeltsin also assured Clinton that the long-stalled START II arms reduction treaty will soon be ratified. Clinton in return agreed to begin serious talks on a follow-up START III agreement, concurrent with the ABM talks. The new U.S.-Russian detente seems complete. But there is a snag: Yeltsin's concessions do not amount to much in real terms. According to the text of the ABM treaty, Russia is actually legally obliged to begin a discussion on amendments with the United States. This process was established decades ago - the Soviet Union and the United States seriously amended the ABM treaty in 1974. Of course, any future ABM amendment should be ratified to become law, and such a ratification is hardly possible in Russia today, or anytime in the future. Ratification of the beleaguered START II treaty is equally no more than a daydream. In Germany, Yeltsin did not offer any concessions as leader of a free state. He paid homage and pledged personal loyalty as a vassal of rich Western states, but these pledges do not bind Russia. Yeltsin badly needs Western money to prop up his regime and Western political support to fight a growing number of internal political foes that are demanding his resignation. Western observers are wrong when they say that Russia needs Western money and so is forced into humiliating concessions. Yeltsin and his proxies need the money - not Russia. Ordinary Russians will never see a cent of it - all will most likely be stolen, as before. The Russians will get involved only when the West demands that its "financial aid" be repaid with interest and imposes sanctions to ensure repayment. Most Russians have already set their minds on what they may expect from the West in the future. According to three recent polls, 73 percent of Russians consider the NATO military operation in Yugoslavia as a direct threat to Russia's security. The majority of those polled said that NATO wanted to demonstrate its strength. The second most popular answer was that NATO is trying to take over the Balkans in order to advance toward the Russian borders to attack Russia. Most Russian military officers, of course, agree with their countrymen that the West is a threat and a foe. The Defense Ministry has often officially announced that any alteration of the ABM treaty will lead to a breakdown of all other existing arms control treaties. One could assume that such a "breakdown" would mean a renewed nuclear arms race or even nuclear war. But in private, Russian officers are much more cool. A Russian general involved in ABM discussions with the United States once told me: "We cannot stop military-technical progress, though we try our best. We know that as soon as the United States will be capable of deploying a national ABM system to guard U.S. territory from enemy missiles, they will deploy. The ABM treaty in itself will not deter the Americans for a second." The bombing of Yugoslavia has proven that international agreements mean nothing in Washington today, since there is no second superpower to enforce compliance. But the Russian military also knows that the United States is technically unable to build a credible national ABM defense system in the coming decade. Maybe such a system cannot be built in 20 or even 30 years. So there is plenty of time to negotiate. While the Russian nuclear threat still exists and the U.S. ABM system is weak, Western aggression is not a real option, no matter what Russian public opinion polls say. When the Russian military says that the current network of arms control agreements will collapse because of a violation of the ABM treaty, they actually mean that a new network will have to be negotiated. Clinton will leave office in January 2001. The Yeltsin regime will most likely collapse much earlier. But the professional military establishments on both sides of the Atlantic will remain the same and arms negotiations will continue. Professional military people worldwide hate defense spending cuts, but they hate real war even more. Pavel Felgenhauer is chief defense correspondent for Segodnya.
#15 Wake Up To Y2K Bug, Duma Tells Russia June 24, 1999 [for personal use only] By Adam Tanner MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's parliament told the nation Thursday to wake up to the dangers of the 2000 computer glitch, but a new law provided no real remedy for a problem Moscow has been slow to recognize. The law, passed unanimously by the State Duma lower house, obliged government and private entities to work out plans for averting chaos at midnight on December 31. Computer experts in the West have been busy for months to make sure that older computer systems do not go haywire by mistaking the year 2000 for the year 1900. The new law marks a growing realization that Russia too is exposed to the risks, which could shut down public utilities and throw air traffic into confusion. Shortly before the Duma vote, the government's top official overseeing the so-called Y2K problem dismissed the dangers. ``Russia expects nothing terrible,'' Ilya Klebanov, deputy prime minister for the military industrial complex, told Ekho Moskvy radio. Although Russia has fewer computers than the West, experts have raised fears because of the country's vast nuclear arsenal, atomic power stations and other industrial facilities. Fears of a Y2K flaw confusing military radar systems have prompted the United States to propose joint staffing of missile early warning stations to prevent a mistaken warning of a missile attack. Cooperation on Y2K military issues has continued despite a halt in other military ties because of the war in Yugoslavia. Klebanov also said a government commission was set to be formed next month and members would travel the country to check on progress against the bug. Former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who was sacked in May, had set up a commission in January to combine efforts by central and local government. ``Work is proceeding fruitfully, but as always there is not enough financing,'' Klebanov said. He said some ministries, such as those for atomic energy and fuel and energy, were dipping into their reserves for funds to beat the bug. Russian government experts have said the country needs $2-$3 billion dollars to tackle the millennium bug. Military officials say they have just $4 million to spend on upgrading the nuclear arsenal's computer brains. By contrast, the U.S. state of Texas alone is spending $280 million to fight the millennium bug. The Duma legislation passed Thursday does not provide new funding but obliges those who own computer systems to bear Y2K- related costs. It also says entities with computer systems must warn users of possible failures in the system and work out crisis plans in case failures occur. Last week President Boris Yeltsin also issued a decree urging measures to deal with the problem.
#16 Russian-US Trade Levels Viewed MOSCOW, June 18 (Interfax) - The volume of mutual trade between Russia and the U.S. has grown by over 150% since 1992, department chief of the Russian Trade Ministry Viktor Spassky said on Friday. Spassky was speaking at the closing of a meeting of a Russian- American working group for business cooperation between the Russian Far East and the U.S. West Coast. As exports have been growing more rapidly since 1994, Russia for the first time in decades has a positive trade balance with the U.S., he said. Last year, the U.S. ranked second after Germany in Russia's foreign trade turnover, with 6.2%. For the U.S., trade with Russia is not that important, as its share barely reaches 0.5%. As usual, the bulk of Russian exports is made up of raw materials, making up around 90% of total deliveries, namely ferrous metals, aluminium, precious metals, chemical products and fertilizer, oil and petroleum products, titanium and products made from it. Machinery, equipment and means of transportation constitute an insignificant share of Russian exports. Russia imports from the U.S. mainly engineering goods, food and agricultural materials, mainly poultry and tobacco. Spassky said that the shares of different U.S. states in exports to Russia changed last year, and the role of Pacific coast states grew. Washington was the biggest exporter at $1.078 billion. The rise in exports can be attributed mainly to the sale of Boeing-made aircraft. Spassky said that an important condition for the expansion of the business cooperation between the two countries was the revision of many provisions of U.S. legislation concerning trade with Russia at the beginning of the decade. For instance, Russia received the opportunity to benefit from the U.S. general system of preferences, allowing it to export many of its goods to the U.S. tax-free.
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#17 RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 3, No. 123, Part I, 24 June 1999 STEPASHIN SAYS ECONOMIC RECOVERY ALREADY STARTED... During a discussion with Danish Foreign Minister Niels Holveg Petersen on 23 June, Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin said that Russia's economic recovery began earlier than forecasted. Stepashin pointed to a rise in industrial output of 1.5 percent during the first five months of the year, the stabilization of the ruble's exchange rate, and a monthly inflation rate of less than one percent. He also declared that the country's foreign investors were now returning. JAC ...AS TRUE STATE OF INDUSTRY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. The same day, "Trud" reported that industrial output in May jumped 6.1 percent compared with the same month last year, but retail trade turnover plummeted 14.3 percent over the same period. At the same time, the average wage in May amounted to 1,465 rubles ($60) a month, which in terms of real purchasing power represents a decline of more than one-third. Noting that industrial output declined last May compared with the previous month, Yevgenii Gavrilov, deputy director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told "The Moscow Times" that he is "more inclined to trust the May figure compared with April" because it is calculated on the basis of physical volume of output, which means that industrial production could have contracted. JAC DUMA MEMBERS PASS MORE IMF LEGISLATION... State Duma deputies passed more bills on 23 June that are part of the package of measures drafted by the government in accordance with its agreement with the IMF. The law on the restructuring of credit organizations, which passed on its second reading, sets out the procedure for restructuring banks as well as defining the status and property of the Agency for Restructuring Credit Organizations, according to Interfax- AFI. A second law allows the Central Bank to issue short-term bonds until next year, while a third allows it to purchase gold directly from producers. Both measures were approved on their third and final reading. Duma deputies also approved a bill that taxes luxury vehicles or cars with engines ranging from 2,500 to 3,000 cubic centimeters on its second reading. All bills must pass three readings before they are sent to the upper chamber and later to the president for approval. JAC