Washington Profile
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One Step Away from Catastrophe
By Dmitry Sidorov, Washington correspondent for the Kommersant daily
Against the backdrop of rapidly deteriorating U.S.-Russian relations - prompted by revelations of Moscow’s missiles sale to Iran and the State Duma’s passage of dubious legislation restricting nongovernmental Organizations - (NGO) activities - Aleksandr Voloshin’s surprise trip to Washington last week seemed more than mere coincidence.
Aleksandr Voloshin, former head of the Yeltsin and Putin administrations, spent almost three days on a private visit in Washington and New York. In the U.S. capital, he clarified the Kremlin’s grievances vis-à-vis the White House to a small group of nonplussed Russia experts, who sought to understand the country’s latest erratic behavior. He also promised that the final version of the law governing NGOs would be more civilized.
Accompanying Voloshin was Russia’s wealthiest oligarch still residing in the country, Oleg Deripaska, whose requests for a visa to enter the U.S. had been turned down for almost ten years.
Deripaska’s visit and attendant speculation about how he managed to pull it off, thus, effectively eclipsed Voloshin’s presence in the U.S.
On 6 December, they appeared at separate venues in Washington. While Deripaska spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Voloshin, several hours later, accepted an invitation by a prominent DC law firm to discuss the Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policies with 10 experts.
The rules of the game were followed to a tee: Deripaska, the quintessential capitalist, appeared before an audience of old “New Russian” businessmen, who are loath to getting entangled in politics, while Voloshin, a trusted man in Washington, outlined the views of the Kremlin’s moderate wing.
Voloshin’s Revelations
On one hand, Voloshin’s arrival in the U.S. was a courageous act, especially when you consider the serious allegations Congress has made about his role in the scandal-ridden United Nations Oil-for-Food program in Iraq.
On the other, Moscow insiders, like Voloshin himself, would hardly be willing to take chances if they suspected that the Kremlin’s former “Grey Cardinal” was putting himself in danger by visiting the U.S.
His meeting in Washington was organized by one of the largest Washington-based lobbying firms doing business with Russians. I gave my word to the organizer of the meeting that I would not mention his name or the name of the organization where Voloshin spoke. I made the same promise to the person with whom I spoke for this article, and on the basis of whose conversation I am writing about Voloshin’s views expressed during his trip.
His presentation consisted of two parts, covering, first, the Kremlin’s foreign policies and, second, its domestic ones.
The situation surrounding Russia’s NGO legislation - which Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Patrushev had pledged to address last year - evoked harsh criticism from Voloshin, similar to that of several U.S. lawmakers and members of the press, not to speak of American NGO representatives.
He used words like “idiotic” and “stupid” to explain his position on the bill being debated in the Duma. And he promised his audience, which included members of the U.S. intelligence community, that the legislation would pass through parliament only after being heavily revised.
Indeed, his words were confirmed just days later, after Putin on 9 December made it clear that he planned to submit amendments to the bill and, on 12 December, sent a letter to the Duma recommending that certain parts of the proposed legislation be toned down.
The second part of his presentation, dedicated to Russia’s domestic affairs, addressed the 2008 presidential election. The former administration head called Putin�s recent reshuffling a move to prepare for that election.
Voloshin apparently had in mind the senior level changes implemented in November, when Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov was made deputy prime minister, head of administration Dmitry Medvedev became first deputy chair of the National Soviet, and Tomsk regional Governor Sergei Sobyanin took Medvedev’s place.
His assessment of the reorganization corresponds closely with that of John Williams, head of the State Department’s analytical division in charge of Russian and Eurasian affairs, who said just as much at an event at the Woodrow Wilson Center a few days before Voloshin arrived in Washington.
The difference in their analysis was that while Voloshin characterized the changes as Putin’s desire to see what the reshuffled men were capable of in positions outside of his direct service, Williams described it as “successor plan” preparations.
Voloshin’s words, more specifically, seemed to suggest that Putin sees Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev as most likely candidates to succeed him.
Likewise, Williams, just days before Voloshin’s visit to Washington, mentioned Medvedev and Ivanov among possible successors to President Putin.
The State Department official also included Sergei Mironov and Boris Gryzlov as possible candidates, saying that Putin might place his bets on a “weak successor.”
Offer of Cooperation Despite Disappointment
While Russia’s weapons sale to Iran sparked serious concern among official circles in Washington, those less encumbered by political responsibility have begun to speak of a looming catastrophe.
Going by Voloshin’s words, the Kremlin is deeply disappointed in the way the White House has been treating Russia.
The former administration head said that in response to the pullout of Russian troops and Moscow’s closure of bases in Vietnam and Cuba, the U.S. abandoned the ABM treaty, expanded NATO and complicated the state of affairs in Central Asia.
To Moscow’s list of complaints may also be added Georgia and Ukraine, which, along with the Central Asian countries, constitute a large part of Russia’s “near abroad.”
While I don’t know if Voloshin explicitly referred to these countries as he aired Moscow’s grievances, he was very clear about the Kremlin’s displeasure at America’s involvement in the region.
In summary, the current state of U.S.-Russian relations amounts to disappointment just shy of catastrophe.
Despite his criticism of the White House, Voloshin’s presentation also included what seems to me a proposition, apparently sent by the Kremlin, to Washington.
Voloshin spoke of a lack of strategic cooperation with respect to both the Islamic world and the war against terror, which, he said, has thus far been restricted to combating terrorism’s symptoms and not its causes.
Though this apparent offer of cooperation is not new, the fact that it was delivered by someone who has until now been close to the Kremlin and, at the same time, is respected in Washington, attests to its importance.
Enter Oleg Deripaska
I received several tips from unnamed sources on how Deripaska managed to get into the country, despite the U.S.’s longtime suspicion that the owner of Russian Aluminum (RusAl) has been involved in money laundering operations, among other illegal activities.
One source, who wished to remain anonymous, said that Deripaska’s visa problems were resolved during President Putin’s 16 October meeting with President Bush. In a 55-minute-long conversation at the White House, the two leaders spent about 10 minutes discussing the oligarch.
Mr. Deripaska declined to comment on his efforts to obtain the visa.
State Department Bureau of European Affairs press officer Jerry Keener also declined to answer my questions concerning the U.S. government’s decision to issue Deripaska an entry visa, citing privacy laws.
Sources close to the State Department believe that the decision might be linked to the U.S. government’s alleged aspiration to dissuade Deripaska from actively opposing Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization. However, this hypothesis seems less convincing, as Deripaska is said to have reiterated his displeasure at Russia’s membership during his visit.
If it were Putin and Bush who decided his fate, as my source (a member of the U.S.-Russian business community) stated, then the reason for the U.S.’s change of heart becomes a bit clearer. Namely, the source thinks that the oligarch’s sale of two Russian factories to America’s aluminum giant Alcoa for $257 million could have served as a good bet placed against his visa issue discussion.
This last observation is in complete harmony with an assessment made by a Washington expert who said that after building good relations with Moscow and Washington, Deripaska was able to get the visa and fly to Washington to promote a new image of Russian businessmen not involved in politics.
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