#26 - JRL 9117 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
April 11, 2005
RUSSIAN POLITICAL ELITE DISCUSS POLICY TOWARD CIS

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Arseny Oganesyan) - A series of dramatic political upheavals in CIS countries has provoked a wide-ranging debate among the Russian political class. Everyone agrees that Russian policy toward the CIS must be radically changed. However, beyond that there is little consensus and some politicians are even at loggerheads over the issue.

Konstantin Zatulin and Alexander Lebedev, Russian State Duma deputies, are at the opposite poles of the debate. Both men are on the State Duma's committee for CIS and Russian Diaspora Relations and are members of the pro-presidential party United Russia.

Zatulin, the director of the Institute of CIS Countries, proactively supported Viktor Yanukovych in the Ukrainian presidential election. He is convinced that transforming the Ukrainian system by "democratization through decentralization and federalization", and also making Russian a state language along with Ukrainian, can lay the foundations for a special Russian-Ukrainian relationship.

He is convinced that as there can be no common ground with the new pro-Western Ukrainian president, and that Russia should support the opposition in the forthcoming Ukrainian parliamentary elections. In addition, Zatulin wants the legal rights of Russian investors in Ukraine to be upheld and Russia to condemn "the mass repression of dissenters."

Ex-banker Lebedev, who has commercial interests in Ukraine, strongly disagrees. When asked for his views on the subject, he stressed that he "disagrees with the statements that mass repression has been unleashed against dissenters in Ukraine. On the whole, what is actually happening is that the Ukrainian leadership is trying to combat corruption."

Accordingly, he is adamant that, "We (in Russia) must stop making official statements about the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This should not be a subject of official debate. It is unacceptable in modern international politics." He believes that unless Russia desists, "We will cause such a deterioration in our relations that it will be as if the Cold War had never ended."

Lebedev wants Russia to "stop interfering in Ukraine's internal affairs," and, therefore, does not agree that Russia should help the Ukrainian opposition. Instead, he proposes to "give the green light to reciprocal investment and economic projects and generally promote private Russian investment in the Ukrainian economy." He argues, "If we succeed in establishing integration mechanisms, Ukraine will become less intent on joining NATO and the problem of NATO enlargement will recede."

For all the ambiguity of the positions of the two State Duma deputies, they are still highly illustrative of the mood of the Russian political elite. The emotional debate surrounding the thorny issue of Ukraine exemplifies the two diametrically opposed views on the form that Russian policy toward the CIS should take.

Despite the complexity of the task, Russia must urgently revise its CIS policy, as geopolitical competition in the region has become very real. Unless Russia "focuses" its influence in the CIS is likely to further diminish, possibly even faster than analysts are predicting.

The debate between Lebedev and Zatulin is very enlightening, because unlike the arguments being put forward by many Russian political commentators, their positions are well thought out and clearly articulated.

Moreover, the positions of the two men are not as irreconcilable as they themselves might think. For example, Russia should establish relations with the Ukrainian opposition (and also that of other countries) so that when the political leadership changes, as it undoubtedly will if Ukraine becomes more democratic, Russia will not have to build relations with the new political elite from scratch. However, this does not mean that Russians cannot increase investment in the Ukrainian economy and develop a variety of integration projects. On the contrary, it will reduce the investment risk.

Furthermore, it is very important that Russia broaden the range of foreign policy instruments at our disposal by setting up foundations and non-governmental organizations to promote the Russian language and culture, which will play a key role in the cultivation of a pro-Russian elite in the CIS states. This will give the Kremlin extra room for maneuver in the event of further political upheavals in the region.