#15 - JRL 8377 - JRL Home
RFE/RL Newsline
September 20, 2004
A STABILITY PACT FOR THE CAUCASUS?
By Ulrich Buechsenschuetz
Copyright (c) 2004. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

In the wake of the Beslan hostage crisis, many politicians outside Russia have publicly wondered how to support Moscow in its fight against terrorism and how to resolve the ongoing tensions in the North Caucasus.

One of these politicians was Gernot Erler, the foreign-policy spokesman for the governing Social Democratic Party of Germany's parliamentary group, and also the government's coordinator for German-Russian relations. Erler also holds the chairmanship of Germany's largest association for Balkan studies, the Suedosteuropa-Gesellschaft. As chairman of this organization, he is familiar with conflict-resolution efforts in the Balkans.

One of those efforts was the EU-led Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe, which brought together more than 40 countries, organizations (including the United Nations, the Council of Europe, and the OSCE), and institutions (such as the World Bank and the IMF). The members of the pact "undertook [in 1999] to strengthen the countries of South Eastern Europe 'in their efforts to foster peace, democracy, respect for human rights and economic prosperity in order to achieve stability in the whole region,'" according to the pact's website (http://www.stabilitypact.org). In practice, the pact does not hand out money or have a military/security component, but serves as a clearing house, coordinating foreign investment and infrastructure projects.

With the Stability Pact in mind, Erler, in a 9 September interview with the German Internet publication netzeitung.de, proposed establishing a similar pact for the Caucasus. In Erler's opinion, a peace plan for the Caucasus should have a three-step strategy. He said that the first thing to do is to make a "sober and honest assessment" of the present Russian policy toward Chechnya. In this regard, the Russian government must provide its citizens with a realistic assessment of the situation in Chechnya and the northern Caucasus, because the government's policy of reiterating that the security situation is constantly improving has proved to be "less than convincing," as Erler put it.

Second, Erler said, it would be a decisive step forward if the Russian government took steps to stop illegal victimization of Chechen civilians by Russian security forces and the private army commanded by Chechen Deputy Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov, the son of slain pro-Moscow Chechen leader Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov. This could help undercut the radical Chechen fighters' ability to recruit young men intent on avenging the murder or disappearance of their relatives.

As the third part of the Caucasus peace plan, Erler said that there must be improvement in the Chechen population's catastrophic economic situation, which he regards as a breeding ground for terrorists.

As for his idea of adopting a stability pact for the Caucasus, Erler noted in his interview with netzeitung.de only that it should be modeled after the Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe, which, he said, has successfully provided the Balkans with a perspective for prosperity and stability. This new pact should be led by Russia, but also include the EU and Russia's neighbors such as Georgia, as well as international financial institutions.

Several other German politicians, including Winfried Nachtwei, who is the Green Party's spokesman for security policy, and Elmar Brok of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, who is the chairman of the European Parliament's foreign policy committee, welcomed Erler's proposal of a Caucasus stability pact. But Brok warned in a 10 September interview with netzeitung.de that Russia's neighbors are unlikely to accept any Russian-led international initiative, and for that reason such a pact would be a "stillborn child." For Brok, the initiative for any such pact should come from Europe, and it should include a role for the United States and also for Turkey as a representative of the Islamic countries.

Asked about Brok's concerns about the negative Russian role in the Caucasus, Erler told RFE/RL on 13 September that this may have been true before the Beslan hostage tragedy. But Erler argued that in the aftermath of Beslan, Russia will have to reconsider its position that Chechen terrorism is an offshoot of international terrorism, and at the same time an internal problem of Russia.

Therefore, Erler reasoned, there is a good chance that Beslan may herald the beginning of a new Russian approach to the Chechen problem. At the time of Erler's interview with RFE/RL, few details were available of the Federal Commission on the North Caucasus, which the Russian government has recently created. This new body, which is to be headed by new presidential envoy to the Southern Federal District Dmitrii Kozak, will deal with what Putin called the "miserable socioeconomic situation" in the region, which Putin said constitutes a breeding ground for "ideologues for international terrorism" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 September 2004 and End Note, "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 September 2004). Erler said it is a positive sign that Putin chose Kozak for that position, and indicates that he takes the situation very seriously.

Asked how realistic it is to expect Russia and Georgia to cooperate within the framework of any stability pact -- given that Russian officials recently hinted at Georgia's complicity in the Beslan tragedy -- Erler said that the recent Russian threat to attack terrorist camps "outside Russia" is a clear allusion to the Pankisi Gorge in Georgia. Erler also noted that the international community should seek to convince Russia that it is better to cooperate with the new Georgian leadership rather than attack it.

As for which northern Caucasian republics should be included in the stability pact, Erler responded that this remains to be seen. With the creation of the Federal Commission on the North Caucasus, Putin has provided part of the answer to that question. For Erler, it is important that international organizations and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development participate in the pact. But he also acknowledged that given Russia's antipathy to organizations such as the OSCE, they should not be included in the pact from the very beginning.

It remains to be seen whether proposals such as Erler's will fall on fertile ground in the relevant international institutions or, especially, in Russia. While international awareness of the magnitude of Russia's problems in the Caucasus has risen in the aftermath of the Beslan hostage drama, some international reactions -- including those of U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw -- have cast doubt on whether Putin's proposed new approach can resolve those problems. Therefore, now might be the right moment for new constructive proposals.