#6 - JRL 8345 - JRL Home
Mosnews.com/Gazeta.ru
www.mosnews.com
August 27, 2004
Peace, Stability on Chechens’ Minds Before Election
Alia Samigullina

The turnout at polling stations on 29 August to vote for the new president of Chechnya will be 64 per cent of the electorate. Such was the result of a survey conducted in Chechnya over the past weekend by the Institute for Social Marketing. Sergei Khaikin, director of the think-tank, has spoken to Gazeta.Ru about the pre-election sentiments of the Chechens in the run-up to the poll.

What is the situation like in Chechnya in the run-up to the preterm presidential elections?

To begin with, people have been looking forward to the election. It just so happened that we had an opinion poll scheduled for 12 May, and [Chechen President Akhmad] Kadyrov was killed on 9 May. People said at once, we need no appointed official ­ such proposals were being made then ­ we need a president.

They perceived the presidency as being important, since the president not only tackles internal problems but also represents the Chechens in Russia and around the world. After all, one of the most serious problems is the president’s ability to represent the people because they realize that the people have been insulted.

For instance, we asked them if they thought the authorities treated them in the same manner as they treat other ethnic groups or worse. Naturally, most Chechens ­ 81 per cent of the respondents ­ believe that they are treated worse than others. Only 13 per cent are convinced that they are treated in the same way as others.

The Chechens need a president to represent them in Russia and in the world; it is vital for them not to be drawn into a new confrontation with the Kremlin. And who is most capable of avoiding such a confrontation? The one who has the Kremlin’s favor, who has access to the Kremlin.

In other words, the potential president-elect must have the support of the Russian authorities?

Practically all the candidates share the same views. There is not one among them with a propensity for confrontation. All the people who have remained on the list [of officially registered presidential candidates] say, in public at least, that Chechnya ought to develop within the political and legal space of Russia.

None of the candidates provides any alterative, that is why the voters can either ignore the vote altogether or cast their ballot for any of the candidates.

On the whole, this is the key issue: whether [Chechnya is] with Russia or not. We have been posing that question to our respondents in Chechnya each month for two years now. And when we first asked them in February ­ March 2003, it transpired that 67 per cent of respondents said they wanted Chechnya to stay within Russia.

When I published the results of that survey everyone was very surprised because everyone had assumed that separatist sentiments prevailed in Chechnya. I am afraid that in its policy toward Chechnya Russia proceeded from the assumption that separatist sentiments prevailed there.

Suddenly it turned out that there were not so many separatists. And with the policy beginning to change it turned out that most Chechens were sensible people. Our latest survey revealed that 82 per cent of Chechens want to see their republic as part of Russia and only 14 per cent said that Chechnya ought to develop as an independent nation.

That means that regardless of what we think of concrete individuals, I mean Aslan Maskhadov or Akhmad Kadyrov, the people know the answer to the main question. They believe it would be easier for them to solve their problems and safeguard their interests within the political and legal space of Russia.

Have any striking changes occurred in general in public opinion compared to eve of last year’s presidential election? Have Chechens revised their attitude towards the election on the whole after the killing of President Kadyrov?

It is hard to say. Last year saw something similar. They wanted to elect a president. They thought, we will elect the president, endorse the constitution, elect the parliament, local authorities and will at long last become normal. Things will go well then. Last year signs of war were being removed, this year signs of peace are being built up. Last year checkpoints were removed, Budanov imprisoned, compensation was promised. This year people said they want to turn a page.

We ask them who holds power in the republic. Last year [respondents said], before the presidential elections that power was held by the Russian military. And after the election all of a sudden one-third of the population said the power belonged to Kadyrov.

Today 48 per cent again believe that the federal center holds full control: 30 per cent of them say that power is fully in the hands of Putin himself, 18 per cent say it lies with the military. Last year the attitude towards the elections was different, there was hope.

Then candidates began to withdraw from the political arena. Honestly speaking, it was only [Malik] Saidullayev, who was disqualified; Dzhabrailov and Aslakhanov backed out at their own initiative. And then Akhmad Kadyrov remained the only realistic candidate.

And with just one candidate left the people still understood that there was nothing terrible about it because what is more important is that that person is favored by Moscow. Moreover, his course conforms to our expectations on the whole. Yet, emotionally they feel distrust. We are a large, intelligent, talented people, why do you not trust us? Aren’t we able to make the correct choice on our own?

And still, is there any interest in the elections?

According to the latest surveys, as many as 64 per cent of the voters intend to cast their ballots on Sunday.

Whose opinion matters for the Chechen voters? What influence can the teips (clans) have on the vote?

When speaking of Chechnya, everyone remembers the teips and wants to find out who belongs to which teip, and every Chechen knows where his mountain is. You may be certain he will lead you to it even if his family has been living on a plain over the past two generations.

Teips do have influence, but only as a secondary factor. This is very easy to verify: we asked people to which teip they belong and for whom they vote. Results show that there are no inner-teip agreements on the issue. For instance, Malik Saidullayev and Akhmad Kadyrov belong to the same teip, but each has his supporters.

Do men influence their wives’ choice? They do, although you won’t find more independent women in the entire Northern Caucasus than Chechen women. They calmly make independent decisions. Chechens also heed the public opinion, which depends rather on what the alim would say. Alims are more influential than imams. And of course, 100 per cent of the children in Islamic families heed the opinion of their elders.