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RFE/RL Russian Political Weekly
Vol. 4, No. 28, 22 July 2004
TAKE YOUR SPIN DOCTORS, PLEASE
By Julie A. Corwin
Copyright (c) 2004. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

Russia and Ukraine have generally maintained a healthy cross-border trade, but in the run-up to the 31 October Ukrainian presidential elections, some Ukrainians are questioning whether they really want Russia's latest export: political consultants. On 19 July, youth activists rallied in Kyiv outside a building where Effective Politics Foundation head Gleb Pavlovskii was holding a press conference, TV 5 in Kyiv reported. A week earlier, almost two dozen activists from the Youth -- The Hope of Ukraine organization picketed the Russian Embassy in Kyiv to demand that Moscow not interfere in the presidential race, bearing signs saying "Russian Political Consultants: Suitcase, Train Station, Russia!," utro.ru reported on 12 July.

The picketers also demanded that the Ukrainian authorities expel Russian consultants -- particularly Marat Gelman. Gelman, a former deputy general director at ORT, most recently organized the surprisingly successful election effort of the Motherland party in Russia's 2003 State Duma race. Pavlovskii is perhaps best known for his role in shaping Unity's message during the State Duma elections in 1999. He has also taken credit for creating Vladimir Putin's image. Another Russian political consultant who is sparking interest in Ukraine is Igor Shuvalov (not to be confused with Russian presidential aide Igor Shuvalov). Consultant Shuvalov is better known in Ukraine than in Russia and works for the Ukrainian presidential administration. Shuvalov has reportedly authored many of the "temnyky," or secret written instructions, issued by the presidential administration to media outlets regarding their coverage -- or noncoverage -- of certain news events. In addition, according to opposition website "Ukrayinska pravda" on 16 June (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 October 2002). A Ukrainian branch of Pavlovskii's Effective Politics Foundation has also reportedly played a key role in the invention and distribution of temnyky.

The October ballot is not the first Ukrainian election in which Russian spin doctors have taken part. They had a relatively high profile during the 2002 campaign for the Verkhovna Rada, although some Ukrainian political activists have questioned their effectiveness in that race. In an interview with "Kommersant-Daily" on 5 July, Our Ukraine lawmaker Mykola Tomenko said that Gelman worked for the pro-government Social Democratic Party-united (SPDU-o) during the 2002 race. Gelman and Pavlovskii, according to Tomenko, promised that they would secure 10 percent of the total votes for SDPU-o but managed to get only 6.3 percent. Shuvalov, together with Petr Shchedrovitskii, worked on the campaign for Winter Crop Generation, which finished with even just 2.02 percent of the vote, according to "Ukrayinska pravda" on 16 June. Shchedrovitskii is perhaps best known for his work consulting presidential envoy to the Volga Federal District and former co-leader of the Union of Rightist Forces (SPS) Sergei Kirienko.

In this year's presidential election, the top contenders are Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and Our Ukraine leader Viktor Yushchenko. Gelman, Pavlovskii, and Shuvalov are all reportedly working for Yanukovych. In a press conference in Moscow on 1 July, Pavlovskii denied that he is working for any candidate in Ukraine. However, he severely criticized Yushchenko in remarks that were picked up by a variety of Russian and Ukrainian media outlets. He said that a "victory for Yushchenko could be seen as a victory for Western Ukraine over Eastern Ukraine, something that is dangerous for the country itself," "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 2 July. Pavlovskii added that if Russia wants to see chaos in the former Soviet Union, then it should back Yushchenko, "a weak man and a politician who is being controlled, who is lacking in independence and who will take society toward disintegration, first politically, and then perhaps, territorially."

In an interview with Hromadske Radio in Kyiv on 19 May, Gelman too denied that he is working as anything other than an art-gallery owner during his stay in the Ukrainian capital. However he, like Pavlovskii, has an opinion about the race. He said that "my personal position is that if Yushchenko becomes president, I will consider it a personal defeat. But I have no clients here." Later in the same interview, when queried about the poor performance of his clients in the 2002 elections, Gelman insisted that "the customer-contractor relationship is very intimate one, and conclusions about whether a political consultant has fulfilled his task can be drawn based on whether he continues his relationship with his clients. I can state in this respect that I have not lost any major clients either in Russia or here in Ukraine." Therefore, if Viktor Medvedchuk, SPDU-o leader and presidential-administration chief, can be considered "major," then apparently Gelman still works for him.

Despite their denials, the perception that Gelman and Pavlovskii are involved in the election persists. In an interview with RBK on 5 July, Kirill Frolov, director of the Ukraine department at the Institute for CIS Countries, went so far as to characterize Gelman's strategy for Yanukovych. He said that Gelman is rejecting the use of the resources of the Russian Orthodox Church in the campaign and is instead trying to create a "carnival-like" atmosphere.

Yushchenko's supporters have accused Gelman and Pavlovskii of using "black public relations" against Yushchenko. In comments published by Ekspert-tsentr on 5 July, Tomenko implied that Yanukovych's campaign is using "unprincipled methods" against Yushchenko. He noted the broken windows at the Russian Cultural Center in Lviv and the meetings of Ukrainian National Assembly-Ukrainian National Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO) where fascist symbols were used in support of Yushchenko. An article in "Moskovskii komsomolets" on 16 July linked a public rally held by the ultranationalist Ukrainian National Assembly in Kyiv's central square with Yanukovych's headquarters and with Pavlovskii and Gelman in particular, calling the gathering "Gelmanjudend." The daily, which cited no sources, commented: "The question is: Why should a democratically minded, pan-national candidate initiate such a threat, when only a silovik no one currently knows can benefit? There is absolutely no sense in it."

It should perhaps be noted that consultants sometimes will not only orchestrate an public event, but will also arrange to have articles published about it, and they will sometimes arrange for a trick against their own candidate that can be blamed on the campaign of the opposition or be used to generate voter sympathy.

It could be argued that the protests against the Russian spin doctors help rather than hurt their cause, since presumably no one would object to their presence if they were completely ineffectual. In comments to "Politicheskii zhurnal," No. 24, Andrei Konovalov, president of the Institute for Strategic Evaluations and Analysis, joined his Ukrainian counterparts in criticizing the presence of Gelman, Pavlovskii, and others, saying that all they can create are "provocations."

Konovalov concluded that regardless of whether Yanukovych or Yushchenko is elected president, the general direction of Ukraine will be the same: toward the West. "The basic tendency of foreign policy in Ukraine is a movement toward the West, a striving for integration into European structures and NATO," he said. "Whoever wins the election, this situation will not change." Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute for CIS Countries, agreed, noting that the fundamental relationship between Russia and Ukraine will not change "cardinally" under either candidate. "In the end, the Donetsk group, to which Yanukovych belongs, has its own interests which frequently diverge from those of Russian businesses," he added.

To combat Ukraine's drift toward the West, Konovalov suggests that rather than importing Russian "political technologies," Russian enterprises should engage in a gradual but relentless penetration of Ukraine's energy complex, so that "Russian businesses control the Ukrainian economy." It is possible that Konovalov's suggested strategy is already being implemented, and the push to elect Yanukovych is simply a supplementary effort rather than a competing one.