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RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST ON POSSIBLE CHECHEN SCENARIOS

MOSCOW, May 12 (RIA Novosti's commentator Arseny Oganesyan) - Today there are several possible scenarios of Chechen developments following the death of Akhmad Kadyrov in a terrorist act. The most likely option is the one based on the Constitution.

This is the opinion Director of the Russian Centre of Political Studies Sergei Markov expressed in a televised interview.

He specified he meant the fresh presidential election in Chechnya within the timeframe envisaged in the Constitution.

Markov said the son of the slain Akhmad-hadji, Ramzan Kadyrov, was one of the main candidates for the presidential post. However, the political scientist notes that Ramzan Kadyrov cannot be seriously considered as a presidential candidate because he is very young and therefore cannot be elected, according to the current Constitution. Ramzan Kadyrov is 27 years old, and the Chechen Constitution allows electing a president who is at least 30 years old.

Nonetheless, Markov added, it was the son of the former Chechen president who led nearly all the power structures of the republic, which are playing a more crucial role in Chechnya than in any other part of Russia, due to the current circumstances.

"Who will oversee these structures if the republic is headed by another person?" Markov asked a rhetoric question.

Besides, Sergei Markov is sure that such a political figure as Beslan Gantemirov should not be disregarded. During the second Chechen campaign (1999-2001), he fought side by side with the federal troops, at the head of those forces, which now make the backbone of the power structures in the republic.

According to Markov, another possible scenario in Chechnya is the introduction of direct presidential management in the republic - from Moscow.

However, he stressed that Moscow would hardly opt for establishing "general governorship" in Chechnya, which would not agree with the Chechens either.

There is another, third option - the introduction of parliamentary rule in the republic, Markov believes.

"It does not mean Chechnya will have a multi-party system, untypical for it, following the British and German example. Apparently, Chechnya is not a multiparty republic. It can rather be described as multi-clan and multi-teip (a teip is a branchy Chechen clan).

"However, at the political level, in parliament in particular, these clans and teips will operate as political parties. They will also form coalitions and blocs," said Markov.

The latter option is also interesting because it makes it possible to unite all non-extremist political forces of the republic in the common cause of its restoration, the political scientist said.