#4 - JRL 8190 - JRL Home
Date: Thu, 29 Apr 2004
From: George Kolt (kolt@erols.com)
Subject: allegations re CIA

Dear David

I am now retired and thus speak on a personal basis. But I can tell you those stories are just demonstrations of journalistic irresponsibility. There is no, repeat no, CIA analysis that forecasts the disintegration of Russia in six to eight years, nor, I can add, in the more distant future. And naturally there can be no such reference to a non-existent CIA analysis on the CIA website. The NIC's 2015 study also did not make any such forecast. As for the NIC's planned 2020 study, there is not even a draft of it yet.

What there might be is such a speculative scenario (not a forecast) in a study commissioned by an intelligence organization, possibly by the NIC to stimulate discussion in conjunction with the preparation of its forthcoming 2020 study. Beyond telling you this, I don't have time right now to trace down this canard produced by some Russian outfit that passes itself of as journalistic.

George

[DJ: former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council].