Johnson's Russia List
#7305
28 August 2003
davidjohnson@erols.com
A CDI Project
www.cdi.org
[Contents:
1. Izvestia: NIKOLAI ZLOBIN: BETWEEN ALLIANCE AND BANKRUPTCY.
How shall we draw up a new agenda for Russian-American relations?
2. Luba Schwartzman: TV1 Review.
3. Reuters: IMF sees Russian economy up about 5.9 pct in 2003.
4. Argumenty i Fakty: Vyacheslav Kostikov, THE ARREST: WHAT DOES THE
KREMLIN
WANT WITH GUSINSKY? What has Vladimir Gusinsky done to annoy the Kremlin?
5. International Herald Tribune: Philip Bowring, Bears, volcanoes, oil:
Russia's remote east.
6. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Russia begins to reconsider wide
use of abortion.
7. CNSNews.com: Sergei Blagov, Population Decline, Economic Realities See
Abortion Restricted in Russia.
8. RIA Novosti: "UNITED RUSSIA" LEADING IN ELECTORAL PREFERENCES.
9. RIA Novosti: COMMENTARY: HONEST ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA - MYTH OR REALITY?
10. RosBusinessConsulting: Election funds raised six-fold.
11. gazeta.ru: Dressing down for election chief.
12. Rossiiskaya Gazeta: THE BIG SELL-OFF. Privatization will earn the
treasury over $30 billion in the next three years. An interview with Mikhail
Delyagin of the Globalization Institute.
13. Financial Times (UK) letter: Wealth and power of Russia's business
elite
are undermining faith in capitalism.
14. Parlamentskaya Gazeta: ST. PETERSBURG MAY BECOME THE COUNTRY'S MODEL
CITY.
15. Dimitar Getov: RE:From: An American Educator/7304. (re visas)
16. William Mandel: Re: 7301-Soviet History. (re Walter Duranty)
17. Business Week: Jason Bush, A Renaissance in Retail Banking.
Local and foreign banks are courting Russia's middle class.
18. Reuters: Saudis to court Russia to stay on OPEC's side.
19. pravda.ru: Sovoks of the World, Unite!]
********
#1
Izvestia
August 28, 2003
NIKOLAI ZLOBIN: BETWEEN ALLIANCE AND BANKRUPTCY
How shall we draw up a new agenda for Russian-American relations?
Author: Georgy Bovt
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
IT WILL SOON BE TWO YEARS SINCE RUSSIA BECAME A MEMBER OF THE
INTERNATIONAL ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION "OSTENSIBLY LED" BY THE UNITED
STATES. WHAT ARE THE RESULTS? WHAT HAS BEEN THE OVERALL IMPACT OF
EVENTS IN IRAQ ON THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST?
It will soon be two years since Russia became a member of the
international anti-terrorist coalition "ostensibly led" by the United
States. What are the results? What has been the overall impact of
events in Iraq on the alliance between Russia and the West? Finally,
what will presidents Putin and Bush discuss at their meeting on
September 24 at Camp David? Nikolai Zlobin, Director of Russian and
Asian Programs at the Center for Defense Information in the United
States, discusses these issues.
Question: The anniversary of September 11 is also the anniversary
of a turnaround in Russia's foreign policy. Back then, the West said
it was wonderful that Putin had decided to join the anti-terrorist
coalition. This seems to be sounding rather less fresh these days. The
battle against terrorism has not become any less relevant, but it's
still necessary to think of something new, and a new agenda is proving
difficult to write. Or will anything change at the September meeting
between Putin and Bush?
Nikolai Zlobin: I agree that the situation in Russian-US
relations is highly alarming. In my view, our relationship is
completely bankrupt these days: intellectually, politically, and
economically. This is very alarming. The brief era of seeking a
partnership ended with Iraq. Russia didn't make it as a strategic
partner. There is no fundamental basis for Russian-American relations.
Cooperation is underway in certain specific areas, such as terrorism
and energy, but there is no overall concept of relations - what
they're for, or what they'll be like 20 years from now. The
relationship is empty.
Question: What if we replace the word "Russia" with "Germany" -
is there a fundamental basis for its relations with the US?
Nikolai Zlobin: There is a difference: the American elite had a
conflict over Iraq with the German government, but not with Germany.
America's relations with Germany remained as normal, and will continue
that way: vast trade turnover, unity on political, moral, ideological,
and cultural values - none of this has been disrupted by the tactical
disagreement over Iraq. And the same applies to France. But in Russia
the situation is quite the opposite. There are very good relations
between the presidents, and goodwill between the elites on both sides;
but the relationship between the countries is practically non-
existent. In Russia, relations between the two countries can only
function to the extent that that Bush and Putin like each other. But
if it suddenly turns out that the next presidents of the United States
and Russia can't work together, there is a great danger that Russian-
American relations will deteriorate again.
Question: I think it would be enough to have the Russian elite
maintain normal relations with the American elite. After all, the
general public in Russia plays no part in shaping the political
agenda. The gulf between the elite and the citizenry in Russia is far
greater than in Germany. Actually, although a friendship has developed
between Putin and Bush, anti-American attitudes have increased greatly
in Russia over the past few years. So in terms of public opinion, our
president would seem to be making a mistake in being friends with
Bush. But ordinary citizens aren't criticizing Putin for that.
Nikolai Zlobin: One shouldn't attach such significance to anti-
American attitudes in Russia. Paradoxically enough, Russia is a fairly
pro-American country, if you look at values, attitudes to personal
liberty, and so on. It's the most pro-American state in Asia. And it's
not only important for the elites of both countries to be positive
about each other; they need to be capable of cooperating as well.
Relations between them lack a healthy pragmatism. The Iraq events
showed that the Russian elite was sure the Americans would have huge
problems in Iraq without Russia's support, and sure that Russia could
offer great support. Among the American elite, on the other hand, the
prevailing opinion was that America is so strong that it doesn't need
any help from anyone. We are now seeing some backing down from such
extreme positions.
Iraq is also revealing for another reason. For the past decade or
so, during the so-called period of improvement in Russian-American
relations, we have postponed dealing with unresolved problems. We kept
postponing the problem of Iran, and now it has grown so large that
there's no escaping it. Or look at the problem of North Korea. The
Iraq problem could have been postponed as well. In any case, the
outcome will be worse. Russia has postponed the problem of the
"northern territories" dispute with Japan until the next generation.
The world's second-largest economy doesn't want to do business with
Russia, or even invest in Russia's energy sector; it is not among
Russia's allies in the Far East.
Question: There's a problem here. The Russian elite has a
"Kozyrev syndrome": the idea being that in the Kozyrev era of
diplomacy, in the early 1990s, we "gave up everything to the
Americans." And where is their gratitude? There's a sense of
grievance, of feeling short-changed. The same with Japan: if we had
given away the South Kuril Islands, it would have turned out later
that Russia still doesn't have a good enough investment climate for
Japan to invest in Russia. When dealing with the Americans, the
Russian elite is constantly thinking: what will we gain from this? And
the Russian elite refuses to understand that it won't gain anything in
specific terms. What will we gain if we give up nuclear cooperation
with Iran, thus losing $1 billion or more, taking future reactors at
the Bushehr power plant into account? It's hard to sumount the opinion
that we won't gain anything in particular.
There is an even simpler problem: visas. One thing may be said at
summits, whether with the EU or the US; but then a Russian citizen
goes to a Western consulate and sees something different. And feels
humliated. So friendship between the people isn't happening, unlike
the circumstances of America and Germany.
Nikolai Zlobin: The idea that Russia hasn't gained anything is
highly deceptive. Hasn't Russia's security improved as a result of
better relations with the United States? Aren't Russia's global
interests more secure?
Question: I'll call you on that. Many among the Russian elite
believe that relations with America and the West have shaped the
context of all the changes in our country over the past 15 years.
Well, in that context, many believe that Russia's security has
deteriorated: apartment buildings were never blown up in the USSR, and
suicide bombers didn't strike at rock concerts. And it's all because
we've let the country fall apart, they say. It's all that "damned
American" influence. Democracy wasn't established in Russia by a
"velvet" revolution. It was brought in from the West. It wasn't a
conscious act of liberation for either the elite or ordinary citizens.
The final impulse that led to bringing in liberalism and
weakening was the fear of the Soviet elite that it would lose the
military technology contest with the US. Horror gripped the Soviet
gerontocracy - not visions of the people's rage, or demands for
liberty and a market economy, but visions of Reagan's Star Wars. So
the gerontocracy decided all this had to be slowed down. We had to
become slightly more friendly towards the Americans.
The entire Russian elite - Soviet at its roots - hasn't generated
anything particularly democratic from itself. It has largely been
borrowing. In many respects, it continues to perceive the overall
context - not only relations with America - by looking backward. This
is a characteristic feature of Russian politics, including dialogue
with the US.
Nikolai Zlobin: I agree. But blaming everything on the US or
anybody else would be a childish stage of political development among
the elite and the citizenry. America cannot be held responsible for
the bankruptcy of the USSR. As for security, you have to look at the
basic issues. Putin has said repeatedly that the greatest danger to
Russia today is Islamic fundamentalism. Has this danger increased
since Russia started cooperating with America? The destruction of the
Taliban in Afghanistan, and the destruction of the Iraqi regime -
hasn't this undermined the positions of Islamic fundamentalism? And
take relations with Europe: any improvements in relations with the EU
over the past few years have taken place under the influence of the
US. Europe is in no hurry to draw Russia closer to itself; America is
trying to make the EU do this.
Visas are a very sensitive issues. However, the Russian elite and
especially the presidential administration have been caught in their
own trap. A year ago, during President Bush's visit, I took part in
many conversations about giving Russian citizens the right to travel
to America on the same terms as Eastern Europeans. However, Moscow
then started calling on the West to acknowledge that international
terrorism was active in Russia - primarily in Chechnya. How, then,
should the West open its borders? By acknowledging that international
terrorists are active in Russia (in Chechnya), Russia has placed
itself alongside such nations as Pakistan, Libya, Lebanon, and so on,
where international terrorism is also active.
Question: Should we have declared Maskhadov's supporters to be
freedom-fighters?
Nikolai Zlobin: No. But Russia shouldn't have placed itself in
the list of countries that can't handle international terrorism. While
Russia gained a tactical victory in reducing criticism of the war in
Chechnya, it lost more than that in strategic terms.
However, I would warn Russians against something else: efforts to
relax visa requirements could lead to only the elite being able to
travel. And at that point the issue would be closed.
Question: I also see this as a danger.
Nikolai Zlobin: And here's another interesting point. I've
noticed many in Russia speaking of being disappointed with the West
these days. But there is also disappointment with Russia, elsewhere in
the world. Many expectations regarding Russia have not been borne out,
just as many of Russia's expectations about the West have not been
borne out. It's also odd to hear discussions about which countries
Russia should choose as allies. China, India, in Asia overall, in the
CIS, or whom to support in Europe. But what's usually ignored is the
following question: who wants to form an alliance with Russia? It
seems to me that Russia doesn't have a single reliable friend these
days, or any friends at all. There's a vacuum... But for some reason
many in Moscow are sure the choice is up to Russia.
Question: It seems to me that the Russian elite would do well to
consider whether we need any foreign policy alliances at all these
days. At one time, isolationism served America well. Could
isolationism become a key foreign policy concept for Russia? Maybe
Russia should focus on itself for a while.
Nikolai Zlobin: I agree. But in order to do that, an
understanding of strategic development goals is required. And if you
decide that it's not worthwhile for Russia to deal with Africa at
present, there needs to be an agreement that someone else will deal
with Africa. America. America has a practical interest in
strengthening Russia's influence in places where American influence is
insufficient. Central Asia, primarily. Russia, as a regional great
power, can get a lot more done close to its borders than America
can... I agree that Russia's foreign policy ought to be self-centered.
Russia shouldn't be like a dog taking a walk - marking one tree here,
another tree there. Just for the sake of making its presence felt in
Asia, in the Islamic world, in the Far East, in China, in Europe, in
America, everywhere. Foreign policy will remain impulsive and
unpredictable until Russia gives an answer to the question of whether
it is prepared to resolve strategic security problems, in alliance
with America or not. Nobody likes a nation with impulsive and
unpredictable foreign policy - neither its friends nor its enemies.
(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)
********
#2
TV1 Review
www.1tv.ru
Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba_sch@hotmail.com)
Research Analyst, Center for Defense Information, Moscow office
HEADLINES,
Wednesday, August 27, 2003
- The first day of six-sided negotiations in Beijing on North
Korea’s nuclear programs ended with fervent discussion between
the American and North Korean delegations. North Korea’s Kim
Jong Il declared that Pyongyang “has no nuclear arms” and “does
not seek to develop them.” At the same time, he declared that, if
North Korea’s demands for a non-aggression treaty are not
satisfied, Pyongyang will “create an even more powerful system of
containment.” Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aleksandr
Losyukov, who heads the Russian delegation, said that, while it is
too early to label the negotiations as failed, there is little basis for
optimism.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the funeral of Sakhlin
Oblast Governor Igor Farkhutdinov and the other victims of the
Mi-8 helicopter crash. Thousands of local residents attended the
funeral as well. President Putin also chaired a meeting with
regional leaders to discuss the political situation.
- The Central Electoral Commission has allowed candidates in the
State Duma elections to spend six times as much money on their
campaigns as in the 1999 election -- 6 million rubles for single-
mandate districts and 40.25 million for party lists and blocs.
Candidates can pay up to half of the sum from their own pockets.
Private supporters -- Russian citizens who are at least 18 years old
-- can pay up to 175,000 rubles each to parties and blocs or 300,000
to single-mandate candidates. Anonymous contributions are not
permitted.
- Magomed-Salikh Gusaev, the Minister for National Policy,
Information and External Affairs of the Republic of Daghestan,
was killed in Makhachkala. His car was blown up 50 meters away
from his home at about 8:20 this morning.
- Moscow’s Vybory-2003 [Elections-2003] Forum is over. Over
100,000 people attended the forum over the six days.
- The Electoral Commission of the Republic of Chechnya held a
meeting to review the registrations of presidential candidates. 11
people have completed all of the requirements. Their documents
will now be examined for violations.
- An expanded meeting of the Security Council of the Krasnodar
Krai was held in Krasnodar. Vladimir Molchanov, the regional
head of the Federal Security Service, promised that the organizers
of the terrorist act will be found. Experts from other regions have
been engaged in the investigation.
- The trial of Taimuraz Gabachiev, Ruslan Gabachiev, Alikhana
Karatsaeva and Vladimir Kamyshov began in Pyatigorsk. They are
accused of extortion and illegal trade in weapons, explosives and
drugs.
- Today is the three-year anniversary of the fire on the Ostankino
television tower. Three people died in the tragedy.
- Large-scale training exercises are over in the Far East. Minister of
Defense Sergei Ivanov noted that the Armed Forces never held
exercises with so many various goals.
- The United Russia Party held a charity marathon in the Belgorod
Oblast to gather school supplies for orphanages.
********
#3
IMF sees Russian economy up about 5.9 pct in 2003
MOSCOW, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund believes
Russia's economy is likely to grow by around 5.9 percent in 2003 after
expanding 4.3 percent last year, an IMF resident representative said on
Thursday.
"We do not have any significant disagreement with official projections (for
economic growth) which is now 5.9 percent for this year and 5.2 percent for
2004," Goohoon Kwon told Reuters.
"We are revising our forecast upwards on the basis of a stronger outturn
for the first half of this year and because of much higher than projected
oil prices," he added.
Kwon said he expected the IMF to release precise growth estimates within a
week.
Previously the IMF had forecast 4.0 percent growth for 2003.
"We are finalising our numbers. It would be misleading if I give you
precise numbers...(but) it will be similar to official projections which
are 5.9 percent for this year and 5.2 percent for 2004," Kwon said.
Russia's economy powered ahead 7.2 percent in the first half of the year
thanks to high global crude and commodities prices, mounting investment and
robust domestic demand.
This followed sluggish growth in the first half of 2002 and government
officials have warned that the country's economic growth was likely to slow
down in the second half of the year.
Earlier this month the World Bank also upgraded its outlook on Russia's
economic growth saying that six percent growth was the most likely outcome
in 2003 if global prices for crude stay at current levels.
Some private economists are forecasting as much as seven percent annual
growth for the oil-exporting economy in 2003 but say Russia needs to step
up on structural reforms for sustainable growth in years to come.
********
#4
Argumenty i Fakty
August 27, 2003
THE ARREST: WHAT DOES THE KREMLIN WANT WITH GUSINSKY?
What has Vladimir Gusinsky done to annoy the Kremlin?
Author: Vyacheslav Kostikov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
VLADIMIR GUSINSKY'S BUSINESS INTERESTS THESE DAYS ARE RELATIVELY
SMALL. HE NO LONGER HAS ANY MAJOR ASSETS IN MOSCOW. THERE ARE VARIOUS
THEORIES ABOUT HIS ARREST IN GREECE: IT COULD BE DUE TO HIS OWN
CARELESSNESS, OR THE KREMLIN'S RESPONSE TO GUSINSKY'S ACTIVITIES
ABROAD, OR A MESSAGE TO OTHER OLIGARCHS.
Compared to the billions circulating among the oligarchs in
Russia, Vladimir Gusinsky's business interests these days are
relatively small. He no longer has any major assets in Moscow.
So what has he done to annoy the Kremlin enough to have our
friends the Greeks arrest him in Athens and place him on the verge of
deportation to Moscow?
FIRST THEORY
The Greek office of Interpol did not have documentation showing
that the warrant for Gusinsky's arrest had been rescinded. Interpol
headquarters in Lyons (France) rescinded the international warrant for
his arrest back in July 2001.
But the key point is that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office
still considers Gusinsky as charged with unlawfully taking a large sum
of money out of the country (the figure of $250 million is quoted).
Unfortunately for Gusinsky, the prosecutors of Greece and Russia have
an agreement on reciprocal extradition of wanted criminals. Perhaps
Gusinsky didn't know about that. Maybe his own carelessness let him
down. Gusinsky travels the world in his own jet; passengers using
private planes are permitted a simplified system of passport
inspection at many airports.
SECOND THEORY
Gusinsky isn't as harmless as he seems. Although he's lost his
television empire in Russia, he hasn't lost the taste for that
industry. In the United States and Europe he has created MRT
(International Russian Television), a Russian-language satellite
network. It has a large and growing Russian-speaking audience, and
constantly takes potshots at the Kremlin, in the spirit of the old NTV
and TV-6. Moscow doesn't like that.
THIRD THEORY
This is linked to the YUKOS affair. The Kremlin is alarmed by the
possibility that the assault on Mikhail Khodorkovsky could lead to
significant capital flight from Russia - or perhaps even make some of
the oligarchs flee abroad, fearing to meet the same fate as Platon
Lebedev.
Gusinsky's arrest (especially if he can be returned to Moscow in
handcuffs) is a message to the oligarchs: "If you don't abide by the
rules of the game, we will track you down even if you go abroad. So
you'd better sort out your affairs here."
(Translated by Sergei Kolosov)
********
#5
International Herald Tribune
August 28, 2003
Bears, volcanoes, oil: Russia's remote east
By Philip Bowring
HONG KONG It's a hazardous business being governor of a province in
Russia's east. Last week the governor of Sakhalin, Igor Farkhutdinov, was
killed when his helicopter went down in neighboring Kamchatka. Last year
the governor of Krasnoyarsk in eastern Siberia, the former presidential
contender Aleksandr Lebed, met a similar fate. This year the governor of
Magadan in the extreme northeast was assassinated over a fishery rights
dispute. A year ago the governor of Kamchatka barely survived a road accident.
Otherwise, however, things in the region looks as though they are picking
up. The general improvement of conditions in Russia has taken a long time
to reach the remote east but President Vladimir Putin's government has
awakened to the economic potential and strategic importance of regions that
suffered especially severely from the collapse of the Soviet system.
Russia's far east experienced depopulation as well as economic decline,
opening the gate for opportunistic Chinese merchants and migrants. Putin
himself has noted the need to reverse the drain of permanent Russian
settlers from the far east and their replacement, if at all, by migrants
from elsewhere. But that can only happen as the region's economy picks up.
That is just beginning.
Sakhalin has been a focus of foreign interest for some years but
Farkhutdinov was a major factor in turning interest into concrete results,
as well as altering attitudes to the Russian far east. He was instrumental
in attracting the oil majors, including Shell and Exxon Mobil, to invest in
Sakhalin's huge but remote oil and gas reserves. He was also forthright in
calling on the central government to make Russia more attractive to foreign
investment.
Farkhutdinov constantly emphasized the importance of good ties with the
United States. Energy for the United States from Russia's east was closer
than that from Middle East suppliers such as Saudi Arabia. Russia was also
a more stable supplier. He had a vision of the Russian east acting like
Australia, a thinly populated but advanced country that could be a stable
commodity supplier and partner for Japan, China and the United States.
Farkhutdinov died on a mission to increase cooperation in the region. He
was on his way from Kamchatka's capital, Petropavlovsk, a port city and
naval base that lies on a magnificent volcano-fringed bay, to
Severo-Kurilsk, one of the formerly Japanese islands that lie off the
southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula.
I flew part of this route last year in a similar Russian Mi-8 helicopter,
the noisy but sturdy machine that is the workhorse throughout the Russian
far east, where roads are few and topography, climate and sparse population
make use of light aircraft inappropriate. The 20-passenger helicopters are
reliable and crewed by experienced former military pilots. But the weather
can be atrocious. Helicopters can be grounded for days at a time because of
low cloud and the need for pilots to negotiate their way around, rather
than over, high mountains.
The journey south from Petropavlovsk takes one within sight of another sign
of the new Russia's progress and cooperation - a geo-thermal power station
built with loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The route toward Severo-Kurilsk then passes between two extinct volcanoes
before skirting the site of a foreign mining investment, and on across a
national park, home to hot springs, bears and fishing lodges that are
attracting increasing, if still small, numbers of hardy but well-heeled
tourists. Somewhere along the route Farkhutinov and his party lost their
lives, most likely due to an abrupt change in the weather conditions.
His death could slow the revival of the region, but it seems unlikely to
stop it. Russia's own recovery apart, events since Sept. 11, 2001, have
made China and Japan as well as the United States conscious of the
attractions of Russian energy and the need to put history and territorial
claims into the background, at least for now. And despite everything,
increasing numbers of tourists seem set to brave the Mi-8 machines to
experience Kamchatka's unique combination of natural attractions - active
volcanoes, unsurpassed fishing, bear and reindeer hunting, skiing - and
almost total absence of people.
********
#6
Christian Science Monitor
August 28, 2003
Russia begins to reconsider wide use of abortion
By Fred Weir
Special to The Christian Science Monitor
MOSCOW
Svetlana, now elderly, had three abortions; her friend had 17.
"Abortions were fatalistically seen in my time as an inevitable evil," the
retired scientist recalls. "Contraceptives were practically nonexistent,
life was hard, and most people simply could not afford to support more than
two kids."
For Soviet women like Svetlana and her friend, abortion was the chief birth
control method. Though the abortion rate has almost halved since the USSR
collapsed and other forms of birth control became available, Russia still
has one of the world's highest rates. For every baby born, two are aborted,
according to official statistics.
A new decree will limit access to late-term abortions. That in itself won't
dramatically lower the numbers. But it reflects a nascent public debate
over the morality of abortion - and emerging official concerns about
Russia's sharply declining birth rate and women's health.
"Artificial termination of pregnancy after week 12 is fraught with grave
consequences for a woman's health," says an official spokesman for Russia's
Health Ministry. "Abortions account for 30 percent of maternal mortality in
Russia. It has been decided to reduce these dangers." The dangers include
sterility; abortion is a leading cause of increasing diagnoses of
infertility in Russia.
Critics fear the new decree is the first salvo in a wider assault on
Russia's abortion laws, among the world's most liberal. The critics say the
government may be trying to compel women to have more children - a
demographic strategy that's been tried here before.
"They are not thinking about the welfare of individual people, but on some
grand scale of social engineering," says Tatiana Litvinenko, a leader of
the small, left-wing Russian Radical Party.
"I know that the Health Ministry was under political pressure and had to
make concessions to some politicians," says Sergei Zakharov, head of the
Russian Academy of Sciences Center for Demographic Forecasting.
Anti-abortion legislators
Among those urging the new restriction, signed Aug. 11, were religious
politicians. They say they'll continue trying to bring abortion to the
forefront of public discussion - and to win a ban that allows termination
only if the mother's life is in danger.
"Our initiative has the backing of the Orthodox Church, Russia's Muslims,
Catholics, in fact all denominations," says Dmitry Savin, adviser to the
small Christian Democratic Party, which has two Duma members.
"We know that public opinion is not ready to prohibit abortions," he says,
"but we see the Health Ministry's decree as an important step forward."
In Russia, which was for decades an officially atheist state, abortion
tends to be viewed as a common, if deeply unpleasant, medical procedure,
rather than a moral issue.
A 2003 poll of 1,600 people by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion
Research (VTsIOM) shows that 62 percent of the respondents would not
support banning abortion.
But there are initial signs that some Russians may be starting to question
the practice.
Gynecologist Natalya Boiko, director of the Zhizn (Life) Orthodox Christian
Medical-Educational Center says: "While only three to four years ago it was
impossible to say something against abortions among my colleagues - they
would simply dismiss the issue with a laugh - now increasingly more
gynecologists will at least warn their patients about possible
complications, and some will even go so far as to explain that the fetus is
not just a bit of mucus; it is already a human being and abortion will kill
an unborn baby."
Some observers fear, however, that an acrimonious US-style debate over the
rights and wrongs of abortion would distract Russians from learning more
about options that make abortions less likely.
"We need to tackle the problems from the opposite end, by creating
conditions where women plan their [reproductive] lives calmly and
rationally," says Mr. Zakharov.
But in 1998 the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, quit
funding the federal share of budgets for family- planning centers, which
dispense information on contraception, safe sex, and abortion.
Fewer babies, fewer Russians
Meanwhile, whether from contraception or from abortion or postabortion
sterility, Russia's birthrate continues to plunge.
"The trend among young women today is to get an education and a profession,
and to put off [having] children well into their 30s," says Lyudmila
Timofeyeva, head doctor at a private gynecological consulting clinic in
Moscow.
Russia's population now shrinks by an estimated 700,000 annually - a
statistic that causes deep chagrin in Russian nationalist circles. UN
experts have predicted that in a half-century, Russia will drop from the
current rank of the world's sixth most populous nation to 17th.
President Vladimir Putin has called the slide "a creeping catastrophe,"
while military hawks warn that Russia may not be able to defend itself or
hang onto its vast Siberian hinterland if the decline is not reversed
within a few decades.
Russia has tinkered with reproductive options before. At a Communist Party
congress in 1934, Joseph Stalin complained that the Soviet birthrate was
"lagging behind the pace of socialist construction" and needed to be
stimulated. Abortions were outlawed - the ban was lifted only in 1955 - and
family planning was eliminated from the public-health agenda.
Currently, official figures show that 60 percent of first pregnancies in
Russia are medically terminated.
The new restriction will curtail the virtual abortion-on-demand right that
Russian women have had for almost half a century by making it much harder
to end a pregnancy during the second trimester.
But, scoffs Mr. Zakharov, "if the goal of the Health Ministry's new
restrictions on abortion is to boost the birthrate, it is an entirely
useless measure."
The main reason abortion rates have dropped in recent years is that young
women are becoming savvier about contraceptives and family planning, says
Dr. Timofeyeva.
How young women see it
Yelena, an under-30 saleswoman in Moscow, says she learns everything she
needs to know from books, magazines, and TV. "The attitude among my friends
is to try and prevent pregnancy," she says.
But, like Natasha, a third-year student at the Moscow Linguistic
University, Yelena does not rule out having an abortion if preventive
measures fail.
"I would like to do everything to avoid an abortion," says Natasha, "but it
has never occurred to me or my friends that [abortion] is immoral."
If abortion were ultimately banned in Russia, it would simply go
underground, with resulting health risks, warns Timofeyeva."Once a woman
has made up her mind to have an abortion, she will find a way."
********
#7
Population Decline, Economic Realities See Abortion Restricted in Russia
By Sergei Blagov
CNSNews.com Correspondent
August 28, 2003
Moscow (CNSNews.com) - Citing economic reasons, the Russian government has
imposed restrictions on abortions in a country which has long had one of
the world's highest abortion rates.
Russia's health ministry has been spending some five percent of its annual
budget on funding free abortions, according to Lyudmila Pospelova, head of
the ministry's gynecology department, and so had to take measures to limit
the number.
The new regulations do not affect abortions in the first 12 weeks of
pregnancy, which remain unrestricted.
Also, abortions remain legal if the baby has severe physical deformities or
the pregnancy endangers the mother's life.
But until earlier this month, Russian women were also able obtain a
state-funded abortion between 12 and 22 weeks gestation by citing one of 13
special circumstances, or "social indicators," which included divorce,
poverty, unemployment or poor housing.
The government on Aug.11 reduced the number of indicators to four - rape,
imprisonment, the death or severe disability of the husband, or a court
ruling stripping a woman of her parental rights.
In the late 1930s, dictator Joseph Stalin, needing more soldiers for the
Red Army, imposed a ban on abortion in order to speed up population growth.
After his death in 1953, the ban was lifted and abortion became the primary
birth control method in the former Soviet Union.
Although the number of abortions has declined in recent years from more
than four million in the late 1980s to 1.94 million last year, there are
still more abortions than births in Russia.
In some regions, abortion rates are on the rise. For instance, in 2002 the
Sverdlovsk region in the Urals witnessed a 16 percent increase in the
number of abortions, according to the region's chief health official Boris
Nikonov. For every 100 births in the region, there are nearly 104
abortions, he said.
A low birth and high mortality rate has over the past decade fuelled a
steady population decline.
Last year, the State Statistics Committee's census department announced
that the country's population had fallen by 2.2 million people since a
census in 1989.
Russia now has some 145 million people, and there are roughly 1.6 deaths
for every birth.
As such, the health ministry's move is seen here as part of a campaign to
reverse the country's demographical decline, under pressure from
conservative lawmakers and the Orthodox Church.
The move has its critics, however.
Tatyana Phillipova, a chief gynecologist in Central Russia, was quoted as
saying the new policy could spark an increase in illegal abortions, and
that Russia's demographical problems should be solved in a different way.
*******
#8
RIA Novosti
August 28, 2003
"UNITED RUSSIA" LEADING IN ELECTORAL PREFERENCES
"Yedinaya Rossiya" political party is leading in voters' electoral
preferences. 22% of the voters are ready to support it party, according to
the data of sociological opinion poll, conducted by "Obshchestvennoye
Mneniye" (public opinion) fund, published Thursday.
20% are ready to vote for KPRF (the Communist Party of the Russian
Federation) whereas LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) may hope for
8% voters' support. Soyuz Pravykh Sil, or SPS (Alliance of the Rightists'
Forces), supported by 5% voters, and Yabloko (Apple) have a risk of not
getting into the Parliament: only 4% of those polled are willing to vote
for them.
The Fund observed the ratings of all parties were relatively stable in the
last months. In spite of the developing pre-election campaign, not one
political alliance is getting any new members, though they are not losing
any old ones.
The public opinion poll was performed on August 23 according to
representative choice. 1500 respondents were polled both in the cities and
in the country.
The State Duma (the lower Chamber of Russian Parliament) elections are
scheduled for December 7.
*******
#9
RIA Novosti
August 28, 2003
COMMENTARY: HONEST ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA - MYTH OR REALITY?
Marina SHAKINA, RIA Novosti political analyst
The next parliamentary elections in Russia are scheduled for December 2003
and their approach is felt ever more keenly with every passing day. The
Elections-2003 party forum was recently held in the Manege, Moscow's
central exhibition hall near the Kremlin.
The Elections-2003 forum was an unusual event in Russia's political history
and the press labelled it "a circus" and "a show". On the forum's opening
day the leaders of 27 Russian parties, representatives of media communities
and PR organisations signed a public agreement on honest elections. Each
party had its own publicity stand and staged a presentation in the hall,
while visitors were allowed in for free. For five days the Manege hosted
planned seminars, discussions and roundtables on vital issues.
Three parties -- the Communist Party, pro-presidential United Russia and
the little known Russia's Regions Party -- could afford the largest
expositions in the Manege, where a square metre of floor space cost 160
dollars to rent. The latter circumstance is quite explainable, as
well-known Russian politician Sergei Glazyev recently became head of the
latter party and he and his sponsors are making titanic efforts to form a
new left-wing bloc for the coming elections. The general opinion was that
the Agrarian Party had organised the most convincing and interesting
exposition. There were sacks of potatoes and onions on its stand and
visitors were invited to drink tea with honey.
The signing of an agreement to hold honest elections was the highlight of
the forum's programme. In putting pen to paper, the parties assumed the
obligation to observe ethical rules during the election campaign. This idea
belongs to the Central Election Commission and was put forward because over
the years of democracy elections as an institution have lost the public's
trust. This is largely down to opponents employing dirty PR tricks and
other unlawful methods to get ahead in the polls, i.e. paying people for
their signatures on deputy lists, releasing so-called "compromising
material" about rivals to the press, publishing false posters and leaflets,
open slander, etc. However, dirty PR in Russia helped to make a lot of real
discoveries.
One of discoveries is such a witty move as the nomination of "doubles." The
rivals of the favourite find his absolute namesake and nominate him for the
election, leaving voters confused and favourite in trouble. The nomination
of parties with similar titles amounts to the same thing. The television
and reporters are used to ruin rivals, as well.
The parties have agreed to observe eight rules in the election
campaign-2003. They are the following: the supremacy of the law over
personal and group interests; responsibility; a refusal to use privileges
linked with the authorities; equal opportunities to inform voters; open
discussion instead of polemics in absentia; a rejection of discrediting and
bribery of voters; and settlement of controversies by co-ordinating
procedures. All the rules are reasonable, however, neither the signatories
themselves nor the press, nor the voters for that matter believe the
declaration will be effective.
The democratic Yabloko is the only party which openly refused to sign the
declaration. However, this does not mean that the party rejects the idea of
honest elections. Yabloko members merely stated that the declaration is "an
imitation of honest elections." The party's stand did not cause a political
scandal, as Russians are used to the fact that Yabloko leader Grigory
Yavlinsky and his companions do not like to follow the political herd and
are never afraid to voice their own opinions. December will show voters'
response to Yabloko's move.
Another political scandal has erupted, though. Against the backdrop of the
declaration, two essentially like-minded democratic parties, the Union of
Right Forces (led by Boris Nemtsov) and Yabloko have exchanged accusations
of "attacks, lies and slander" and are threatening to take each other to
court. Provocative posters portraying Yabloko and Communist leaders Grigory
Yavlinsky and Gennady Zyuganov together recently appeared in the Moscow
underground. After that, a new movement "Yabloko without Yavlinsky,"
emerged in the provinces. Yavlinsky and his supporters are convinced that
right-wing forces are thus trying to rob them of votes by using notorious
and unethical dirty PR methods against them.
Nevertheless, one can say that Russian society has made the first move
against dirty PR. Participants in the political process have expressed
their attitude to this negative phenomenon and this, in itself, is
important. The monitoring council formed by the party-signatories will also
say its piece, as it will follow the election campaign and expose those who
break the ethical rules. Serious political forces and their representatives
will not want to find themselves among the ranks of this disreputable
company.
*******
#10
RosBusinessConsulting
August 28, 2003
Election funds raised six-fold
The Central Electoral Commission of the Russian Federation has issued an
instruction on the formation and use of money resources of election funds
of candidates, political parties and electoral blocs during elections to
the State Duma.
Alexander Veshnyakov, Chairman of the Central Electoral Commission, said
that the amount of money a candidate would be allowed to spend on his
election campaign in a single member constituency had been raised from RUR
1m (about $32,905) to RUR 6m (about $197,433). For electoral associations,
the sum of money was increased from RUR 40m (about $1.32m) to RUR 250m
(about $8.22m).
He said the size of the "electoral pledge" had been increased from RUR 2m
to RUR 37.5m, which is 15 percent of the amount that can be spent on the
election campaign. If a candidate gathers more than 5 percent of the vote
but doesn't get elected to the State Duma, he gets the money back. And
political parties should collect 3 percent, Mr. Veshnyakov noted.
He added that the size of donations to election funds that legal entities
and individuals can make had also been increased. According to Mr.
Veshnyakov, the participants in the elections should pay for paid TV and
radio air time in advance. Those political parties and blocs that fail to
gather 3 percent of the vote, will have to return money for free air time
that was provided to them to state-run TV and radio companies.
The Chairman of the Central Electoral Commission stressed that parties who
had not paid their debts since last elections, would be allowed to take
part in the elections, but they would not get free air time. He said the
Central Electoral Commission would request information about such debtors
from TV and radio campaigns right after the announcement of the elections.
In addition, it will request a copy of financial reports of political
parties.
Elections to the State Duma are scheduled for December 7, 2003. According
to Mr. Veshnyakov, costs of this year's parliamentary election campaign had
increased in connection with the necessity to finance the work of electoral
commissions of different levels, and additional requirements regarding the
protection of ballots.
********
#11
gazeta.ru
August 28, 2003
Dressing down for election chief
By Artyom Vernidoub
The campaign to clean up electioneering by Russia's top electoral official,
Alexander Veshnyakov, has got off to a bad start. As he closed a five-day
conference involving 27 political parties at the Manezh exhibition centre
in Moscow, the mud-slinging, or rather the mayonnaise-slinging, began.
A radical activist from the National Bolshevik Party was detained after
squirting a packet of salad dressing at the Electoral Commission's chief
and shouting: ''Maniac Veshnyakov! Stop enacting this farce!'' Veshnyako,
his suit splattered with mayonnaise, retorted by calling the young
activists ''Scumbags''.
Taking part in the closing ceremony of the Elections-2003 forum held at the
Manezh exhibition centre in Moscow were the Communist leader Gennady
Zyuganov, the LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and secretary of the
general council of United Russia among others. They were listening to a
keynote speech by Chairman of the Central Election Commission Alexander
Veshnaykov when the attack took place.
It was at his initiative that the party leaders had got together and signed
a joint declaration pledging to behave ethically during the election
campaign, to refrain from using false information to discredit opponents
and insulting each other. Ironically, as Veshnyakov was speaking of the
importance of honesty in the processing of results, he himself came under
attack.
''For no-one to doubt the outcome of the voting, and for the voters to
conceive a desire to take part in elections…'' the CEC chief was saying,
when a young man holding a small plastic bag ran up to him and squirted
mayonnaise over his suit jacket while his comrades began scattering
leaflets and reciting: ''There will be no honest elections!'' and ''Maniac
Veshnyakov, stop enacting this farce, this is no theatre.''
''Do not pay attention to that dirt,'' Mr. Veshnyakov responded
phlegmatically, ''Provocation exists everywhere, and this hall is no
exception.''
Some time later, when he emerged before the press – by that time he had
taken off his dirty jacket -- Veshnyakov vented his anger: ''There are
still scumbags in Russia, and one of them has revealed himself here, but
even that mission he has failed to do properly.''
The radical youths proved to be activists of Eduard Limonov's National
Bolshevik Party. Limonov's supporters tend to use similar tactics to those
used by western radicals, throwing dirty objects at politicians. However,
the party's activists and NBP headquarters disagreed with Veshnyakov's
assertion that their comrade had failed to produce an effect.
''Our comrade worked with mayonnaise. And though he did not get any on the
[official's] face, the lower part of his jacket was smeared, and when
people were coming up to Veshnyakov for a hug, they were afraid to dirty
themselves,'' the party activists told Gazeta.Ru.
They said the mayonnaise was in a soft 250g plastic bag. The young man who
carried out the attack was 19-year-old Nikolai Medvedev, a resident of
Ulyanovsk. Medvedev had never taken part in such actions before, the NBP
members said. The young man was detained by security officers seconds after
his mission was accomplished.
An official at the Moscow Main Police Directorate told Gazeta.Ru that
police authorities had learned about the incident from journalists. ''We
have just learnt from you about the attack on Veshnyakov,'' a police
official said. ''He [the attacker] was supposed to be detained and
transported to the nearest police station… Most likely, his action will
be qualified as petty hooliganism. The maximum punishment that he may face
is a 200 rouble fine.''
''Everything depends on whether Mr. Veshnyakov makes a complaint,'' our
interlocutor at the NBP headquarters said. ''In theory, even terrorism
charges can be involved, as happened in 2000 in Riga, when our comrades
climbed up a church belfry and began shouting anti-fascist slogans. We hope
he is generous. Take Gorbachev, for instance, he was generous, when we
threw flowers at him (then the hooligan Nadezha Voronova was fined 50
roubles).''
''Of course, Limonov knew nothing of the action that we were planning,'' a
member of the NBP's Central Committee Sergei Fomchenkov said. ''We are a
party of direct action -- the guys planned and carried out everything by
themselves, but we support them; such organizations as the CEC decide for
the voters how and who should win the vote. Veshnyakov is a Cerberus. That
is why they threw mayonnaise at him.''
It is noteworthy that the Russian Justice Ministry has rejected NBP's
request for an official party status three times, and as of July 1
Limonov's movement no longer has the right to call itself a party, and
hence, to stand for seats in the lower house. Not long ago the CEC chief
said that under no circumstances would he allow Limonov's party to take
part in the parliamentary elections.
The Khamovniki district prosecutor's office has launched criminal
proceedings against the NPB member Nikolai Medvedev under Article 213 of
the penal code, envisaging punishment for hooliganism.
********
#12
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
August 28, 2003
THE BIG SELL-OFF
Privatization will earn the treasury over $30 billion in the next three years
An interview with Mikhail Delyagin of the Globalization Institute
Author: Tatiana Panina
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
- THE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM FOR 2004-06 HAS BEEN ADOPTED. SPECIALISTS
AND POLITICIANS ARE ACTIVELY DEBATING THE PROGRAM. THEY ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE HASTE WITH WHICH THE STATE IS PREPARED TO ABANDON
ENTERPRISES AND COMPANIES THAT MAY YET BE PROFITABLE.
The privatization program for 2004-06 has been adopted. Its authors
are convinced that the sales will bring about structural changes in
the economy and bring a lot of money into the federal treasury.
First and foremost, the state intends to sell its shares in the
companies where the stakes it controls do not exceed 25%. That means
almost half of joint stock companies with federal participation. The
list does not include energy companies which will await completion of
reorganization of the Russian Joint Energy Systems and gas sphere.
State interest in major companies will be put up for sale in
accordance with the needs of the federal budget. the fate of LUKoil
has not been sealed yet. Privatization terms and number of shares will
depend on the market situation.
All federal stakes exceeding 50% will be offered for sale in 2005. A
year later, the state will withdraw from joint stock companies in
civil aviation, health care, chemical industry, cattle-breeding, and
the timber industry.
As for state unitary enterprises, they have three years to become
private. The process will begin in 2004 with enterprises of the oil
and gas sector, fuel industry, printing, and river and sea transport.
Privatization of state unitary enterprises in the nuclear energy
sphere is to be completed in 2006.
The government expects privatization to earn the federal budget at
least 40 billion rubles in 2004 and no less than 35 billion rubles
every year afterwards.
Specialists and politicians are actively debating the program of
privatization. They are concerned about the haste with which the state
is prepared to abandon enterprises and companies that may yet be
profitable.
Here is an interview with Mikhail Delyagin, chairman of the presidium
of the Globalization Institute.
Question: Are you worried too?
Mikhail Delyagin: Privatization is supposed to make the economy
more effective. General public already knows that speculations on how
state property automatically means thefts and ineffectiveness while
private property is automatically effective, are wrong. Effectiveness
of a venture depends the form of ownership only in long terms. In
short terms is depends on effective management alone. A state-
controlled company may set an example of effective management (we see
enough examples of that in the military-industrial complex), and a
private venture may be a den of bureaucracy.
Question: Did authors of the program of privatization take into
account mistakes of the past?
Mikhail Delyagin: Fallaciousness of privatization for the sake of
replenishment of federal treasury was officially admitted in 1997. The
budget crisis, however, makes this motive paramount in the work on
program of privatizations. Financial rewards to the budget became the
key parameter of success. Privatization was ascribed to the necessity
to abandon surplus functions of the state in economy only when the
state got the windfall of petrodollars. Surplus functions or not,
Atomenergoeksport is not something that should ever be privatized. We
are talking here the organizations and institutes that possess unique
nuclear technologies.
Special attention is being paid to privatization of major
enterprises, strategically important and as such attractive to
businesses, not the enterprises where the state cannot establish its
control. Take, for example, withdrawal of state structures from banks
and their capital. Attention was centered around profitable banks
abroad and unification of Vneshekonombank and Vneshtorgbank. Needless
to say, effectiveness of the latter went down. A great deal of small
state banks, the major source of inefficiency, have been left alone.
The problem is that inefficiency in Russia is the only protection from
a takeover, including takeover through privatization.
State unitary enterprises are the only exception. There are
almost 10,000 of them, established by ministries and even other state
unitary enterprises. This is where state control is extremely weak.
Most state unitary enterprises enrich state officials at the state's
expense.
Question: Shall we give a thought to deprivatization then?
Mikhail Delyagin: If we are after construction of a civilized
free market (and that's what we've been hearing these last fifteen
years or so), then the state should be empowered to sell and to buy.
To buy, not commandeer. Whenever the state wants to buy something,
first it should prove to taxpayers that it really needs this something
and taxpayers should give their consent.
Emergencies are the first exception. Whenever a private property
(a blasting cartridge or a factory) is used in defiance of the law and
interests of the country, it should be repossessed on the decision of
the court.
The second exception concerns violation of privatization terms.
The state should either demand that they be honored, or have an accord
made with the victims. Failure to honor the accord should lead to
nullification of the privatization treaty.
Private property is not threatened by hypothetical
nationalization half as much as it is threatened by its helplessness
in the face of takeover through enforced insolvency. Loopholes in
bankruptcy legislation are the major reason behind the nationwide wave
of redistribution that hit Russia. The public is deliberately misled
into seeing a threat where there is none and missing the actual
danger.
********
#13
Financial Times (UK)
August 28, 2003
letter
Wealth and power of Russia's business elite are undermining faith in
capitalism
From Charles Tannock MEP.
Sir, Andrew Jack's otherwise excellent article "In the reign of the new
tsars" (August 25) failed to explain fully the increasing popular
resentment of the power and wealth of the oligarchs.
When President Boris Yeltsin announced his privatisation programme 11 years
ago, it was not widely appreciated in the west that he intended only the
dud industries to be distributed via vouchers to the people while the most
valuable assets would be auctioned off to his friends. Thus Mikhail
Khodorkovsky, entirely legally and according to the rules of the day, was
granted the right via his now defunct bank Menatep to organise the auction
of 78 per cent of Yukos Oil.
Offering a bid of only Dollars 309.1m, he acquired 2 per cent of the
world's oil reserves. It is alleged that Menatep even threw out a higher
bid and still announced itself the winner. The company is now capitalised
at more than Dollars 20bn and it is hard to believe that the massive value
added is solely due to its good management since it was privatised. To his
credit, Mr Khodorkovsky admitted, in a recent interview, that the
privatisation rules were skewed.
Mr Jack also mentions in the oligarchs' favour their payment of "more
taxes" but omits to mention the current indictment of Platon Lebedev,
Yukos's billionaire co-owner, for tax evasion, accused of channelling
Yukos's national profits through the Lesnoi preferential tax regime,
designed by the federal government to encourage local investment in that
underdeveloped region of Russia and not as a tax shield for what will be
the world's fourth largest oil producer if its scheduled merger with
Sibneft is allowed to proceed.
Clearly, the revisiting of the privatisations of the early 1990s is a
delicate matter; but if capitalism is to regain the respect of the Russian
people, which is essential to the west if it is to remain as a stable
trading partner and if the Communist party is to be contained, perhaps one
solution would be for an expert commission, with international membership,
to be set up by President Vladimir Putin to look at the true valuation of
the state assets at the time of privatisation and then impose a one-off
capital levy based on the difference between this and the purchase price,
then declare the matter closed.
Charles Tannock, (Conservative, London Region), European Parliament
********
#14
Parlamentskaya Gazeta
No. 158
August 28, 2003
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
ST. PETERSBURG MAY BECOME THE COUNTRY'S MODEL CITY
By Viktor TERENTYEV
At a round-table discussion in St. Petersburg, the Project
Committee, a public organisation set up by well-known
scientists of the city, submitted a project called "A Federal
Dimension - to St. Petersburg." When the project is made
public, it will be sent to the commission chaired by the
president's aide Igor Shuvalov.
This commission is in fact a new centre to work out a programme
of the country's strategic development, which was set up under
the president's administration recently. It is quite possible
that a nationwide campaign to resolve three main problems of
Russia, i.e., poverty, modernisation of the army and the GDP
growth, will be launched in St. Petersburg.
According to Dmitry Cherneiko, coordinator of the project,
"the city will become a testing range for resolving nationwide
tasks. It has strength and possibilities for this. The main
thing here are people who understand this. Moreover,
negotiations with businessmen have shown that they are ready to
start the implementation of our project."
The election programme of Valentina Matviyenko, candidate
for the post of St. Petersburg's governor, is based on the
Project Committee's proposals. There is also a draft plan of
work for the future St. Petersburg administration which deals
with all spheres of the city's life - from the municipal
economy to international relations.
As regards concrete points of the draft plan, scientists
have gone here even further than the president's ambitious
plans.
They suggest that the GDP should be doubled within four years,
and not within 7-8 years.
In Dmitry Cherneiko's words, "St. Petersburg has been like
a besieged fortress until recently. It has been trying to
demonstrate its individuality in every possible way, but
instead has been turning into an ordinary provincial town of
the Russian Federation. Today, in the light of recent political
events in this country, St. Petersburg, as an intellectual
capital, should become a generator of ideas. Meanwhile, Moscow,
as the administrative centre, may extend these ideas and
technologies to the rest of Russia."
********
#15
From: "Dimitar Getov"
Subject: RE:From: An American Educator/7304
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2003
The difficulties in registering a foreign national in Russia, about which
the gentleman complains are non existent! I know from personal experience,
because I have had to register in Moscow. It is very simple - upon arrival
visit the local police department and get a stamp! Period.
When I lived in England it was the same. And when I lived in Germany it was
the same - only this time the people I was staying with had to - in written
form - state that they will host me for the period, after which a social
worker shows up at their home with a tape measure to make sure they have
enough space according to German law.
So yes, nonsense is everywhere, but let's get it straight - US visa
procedures are plain savage. I know, I've gotten a visa many times and all
of you can ask your foreign friends, especially those from Russia, CIS or
Eastern Europe. The people applying behave like slaves on a galley and are
treated that way too, while Americans are by default rude and pretentious
when dealing with foreign bureaucracy.
********
#16
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2003
From: William Mandel
Subject: Re: 7301-Soviet History
Re Item 15, Schlaes in the Financial Times.
Walter Duranty must have been an extraordinary figure for Columbia
University and, apparently, the New York Times, to wish to unperson him
(thank you, George Orwell) half a century after his death.
He was.
As to the allegation that he denied the Ukrainian famine, I quote
him: "Whatever Stalin's apologists may say, 1932 was a year of famine in
Russia..." Duranty, Stalin & Co., New York, Sloane, 1949, p.78.
I was his collaborator in the writing of that book.
In April 1948 I had returned to New York from a year as fellow at
Stanford's Hoover Institution, where I completed a one-man encyclopedia
of the USSR.
Quoting my Saying No To Power, 1999: "One day the phone rang and a
voice with a British university accent said: 'This is Walter Duranty.
Are you busy the next month or so?' I answered no. 'I'm writing a book
about Stalin and the men around him -- his possible successors, and I
wonder if you'd collaborate with me.'
"Here was a man who had won the O. Henry Prize for best short story
of the year and had won the Pulitzer Prize for journalism more than
fifteen years earlier for his coverage of the Soviet Union for the New
York Times from 1920 on. He was the author of a published novel, of a
best-seller on his years in Moscow, I Write As I Please, which went
through more than a dozen printings, and of three other books on the
USSR. I had read his dispatches from Moscow since I was ten, perhaps
earlier." My father, a civil engineer, had taken a job in Kuzbass,
Siberia, in 1925, leaving the family in New York for a year. "And this
man needed a collaborator? And he was asking me? I responded: 'Why me?'
"He said: 'I've read your books. You've come to the same
conclusions from your scholarship that I have from my on-the-spot
observations." My A Guide to the Soviet Union, 1946, was then required
reading at institutions like Yale and Stanford. "'In today's
atmosphere'" ["cold war" had become part of the daily vocabulary
precisely in 1948] "'I have to be dead certain that I am absolutely
accurate on matters of fact. And I need documentary support.'
"This was a truly great reporter -- he was as well-known in those
pre-television years as the most famous major network anchor today,
because Russia's attempt to build a non-capitalist society was THE story
of the years subsequent to World War I -- but understood that he was not
a scholar. (Albert Rhys Williams was also like that. Very few reporters
understand that about themselves.)
"So we worked together. It was delightful. Duranty had a suite in a
hotel just off Park Avenue. I would sit at the typewriter and he would
dictate, stomping around the room. Duranty was of middle height, quite
bald, with a mouthful of false teeth, and an impish smile. One of his
legs was shorter than the other because he had lost a foot jumping on a
railroad train in France" covering the French armies of World War I "and
wore an artificial replacement. He would order marvelous sandwiches for
us from room service, and, true to journalistic stereotype, always had a
drink in hand. I don't think I permitted myself alcohol when working,
although I was not a teetotaler.
"Every once in a while Duranty would ask for back-up information on
something, and I would provide it, either from memory or from my A Guide
to the Soviet Union, which had brought him to me. Despite the library of
books written on the USSR by then, he directly quoted only two, mine and
one by Prof. [Frederick L.] Schuman, mentioned previously," a political
scientist at Williams College, then having the national name recognition
as, say, Galbraith in recent decades, "another member of our very small
mutual admiration society.
"I would interrupt his dictation with a suggestion or an objection,
the latter usually on grounds of political interpretation. If he were
sober, he'd say, 'Bill, I'm no hero,' meaning that he agreed, but the
Cold War hysteria made it too dangerous to say what I wanted. If he were
drunk, he would accept my point, and retain it when he re-read it sober.
"My name did not appear in his book, Stalin @ Co., except as quoted
source. I had a good feeling of getting even when Newsweek, which had
listed me in its assault on Communists and fellow-travelers" June 2,
1947, "What Communists Are Up To Now," among whom it included the
president's son Elliott Roosevelt, Senator [later Representative] Claude
Pepper, patron saint of social security, etc., "gave Duranty's book a
favorable review, nearly a full page, in 1949 [Feb. 21]. Duranty,
incidentally, was neither a Communist nor a Marxist but, as an English
citizen, was not even a Laborite. He always voted the Liberal Party
ticket.
"But he never got another book contract, and lost his contract on
the lecture circuit, where he had been an absolute lion, and a
lady-killer. It was simply that he truly loved the female sex, and women
reciprocated. His experience proved the people at John Day right.
Non-hostile books on the USSR were simply not salable to the book-buying
public."
John Day, now Stein & Day, was the publisher that had contracted
with me in 1946 for that encyclopedia of the USSR, with a handsome
advance. Their letter saying they could not publish the book when
submitted in 1948 read in part: "One would think that when a nation is
worked up to hysteria about another nation, its public would want to
read and learn all it can about the possible 'enemy.' But not so
Americans, A year ago they were listening to lectures and buying books
about Russia. Now they turn a deaf ear and a blind eye."
Over forty-five years later, that letter was part of the
documentation which won me a substantial Hammett-Hellman award from
Human Rights Watch as an author who had suffered political persecution.
Some day Duranty's disappearance from the public eye will win similar
recognition.
*******
#17
Business Week
September 1, 2003
A Renaissance in Retail Banking
Local and foreign banks are courting Russia's middle class
By Jason Bush in Moscow, with Carol Matlack in Paris
Russia has done a lot to nurture a consumer-oriented, free-market economy
out of the ruins of communism. But one crucial gear of capitalism is still
missing -- a thriving network of private retail banks. A single,
Soviet-era, state-run institution, Sberbank, still dominates the retail
landscape, and post-Soviet inroads by private banks were wiped out in the
financial crisis of 1998 -- along with many Russians' savings.
Now that is finally changing. With Russia's economy clocking steady growth,
private banks, both local and foreign, are making a big push to expand
their retail business. "Closer than you think!" shout colorful posters at
metro stations in central Moscow, advertising new branches of Alfa Bank
Express nearby.
Dozens of outlets of Alfa Bank and other banks are opening around Moscow
and other cities, featuring services not offered by Sberbank, such as
24-hour banking and unsecured personal loans. "The country has reached the
point that we can develop a profitable business serving middle-class
clients," says Didier Alix of France's Société Générale, which plans to
open a retail branch in Moscow this fall and five more by yearend.
The expansion is timed to coincide with the expected passage in the next
few months of a law that extends bank deposit insurance to private
accounts. The pending legislation would guarantee 100% of deposits up to
$620 and 75% of deposits up to $3,720. Until now, only Sberbank accounts
have been protected, which has helped it keep a lock on 68% of all retail
deposits, or about $26 billion.
But even without the new law, deposits at private banks have been growing.
Total retail bank deposits in Russia have mushroomed to $40.1 billion, more
than double the amount in 2001. At the same time, Sberbank's market share
has dropped from 75% in 2000 to 68% today, and brokerage Troika Dialog
forecasts it falling to 63% by 2005. The most aggressive local player in
the retail market is Alfa, though rivals such as Rosbank and MDM Bank are
also expanding. "Corporate banking is showing signs of depressed margins
and high competition," says Maciej Lebkowski, head of retail at Alfa.
A growing number of foreign banks are also wading into the market. In
addition to SG, the U.S.'s Citibank and Austria's Raiffeisen Bank have big
plans for Russia. Apart from building branches, they're offering services
new to Russians, such as online banking and security alerts to prevent
unauthorized transactions. Raiffeisen boasts a six-branch network and has
three more in the works. Citibank, the world's largest retail bank, opened
its first branch in Moscow last December. "Only 33% of savings is estimated
to be in the banking sector, so there's a huge opportunity to bring new
customers to the industry," says Nandan Mer, head of Citibank's local
retail unit.
Private retail banks sprouted up across most of Eastern Europe soon after
the demise of communism more than a decade ago, but the industry has been
much slower to take hold in Russia. Many banks created after the collapse
of communism were designed to finance the dealmaking of the new oligarchs,
or to make a quick buck from speculation. Banks also have to overcome deep
distrust among ordinary Russians that was only exacerbated by the disaster
of 1998.
But credit-hungry consumers seem willing to forgive and forget. Russian
Standard, the first local bank to specialize in consumer loans, has
extended $410 million in loans since it was set up in 1999. Raiffeisen has
$90 million in retail loans. Rising incomes and consumer demand have led to
a surge in car loans and mortgages. Outstanding loans to retail clients hit
$6.45 billion in June 2003, up from just $1.02 billion in 2000, according
to Russia's central bank. "Russians are changing their mentality, and are
now quite happy to consider taking a loan," says Alexander Koloshenko,
Raiffeisen's head of retail operations.
Such loans are a high-profit business. Koloshenko notes the margin on a
retail loan in Russia is typically around double that on an equivalent loan
in Western Europe. Average interest rates on ruble deposits are little more
than 5%, while rates on retail loans average around 20%. But the big
challenge for newcomers is distribution, especially for foreign banks with
few brick-and-mortar outlets. Citibank, with only one branch (a second is
under construction), is relying on telephone and Internet banking, a
network of automated-teller machines at BP gas stations around the capital,
and alliances with local retailers. Still, "it will be extremely hard to
compete with us," says Alfa's Lebkowski.
That remains to be seen. But what's clear is that as Russia's economy
stabilizes and memories of 1998 fade, middle-class Russians are
increasingly turning to private banks to stash their cash.
*******
#18
ANALYSIS-Saudis to court Russia to stay on OPEC's side
By Peg Mackey
DUBAI, Aug 28 (Reuters) - In the murky world of oil, few know Russia, the
world's second biggest crude exporter, better than its top competitor Saudi
Arabia.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has managed to crack the ice with Moscow,
where he heads next week to sign an historic energy cooperation pact and
persuade this independent producer to side with the Organisation of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries.
"The only way you can use persuasion is to have contacts and
relationships," said Gary Ross, chief executive of consultancy PIRA Energy.
"This is a major accomplishment for the minister."
The oil price boom of the past four years has allowed Russia and other
independent producers to erode OPEC's market share.
Naimi has also convinced the royals of OPEC power Saudi Arabia, the world's
biggest oil exporter, of the importance of building bridges with Russia --
where output is rising steadily.
Crown Prince Abdullah, the kingdom's de facto ruler, will be the first
Saudi head of state to visit Russia when he and several key ministers
including Naimi travel on September 1-4.
"This smacks of an attempt to persuade Russia to become an associate member
of OPEC," said Julian Lee, senior energy analyst at the London-based Centre
for Global Energy Studies.
"But Russia doesn't really have any interest in limiting its production."
For their part, Russian officials may try to soothe Riyadh's concerns over
the country's surging output and pay lip service to maintaining price
stability.
"Russia is likely to say its output growth is unlikely to be dramatic...and
will also promise to keep monitoring the market very closely to have prices
at $20-$25 per barrel," said Valery Nesterov, oil analyst at leading Russia
brokerage Troika Dialog.
"But as usual it will take no real steps."
In concert with OPEC, Moscow agreed to cut supplies in the first half of
2002, but pumped full blast and boosted supplies further after the deal
ended in July 2002.
But even a hollow Russian pledge might be enough to boost oil prices if
OPEC needs to call upon Moscow to cut output.
"In this industry, what you say is sometimes even more important than what
you do," said PIRA's Ross.
CLOSING RANKS
Russia's oil output is soaring for the fifth straight year and the biggest
producer outside OPEC is fast closing in on Riyadh, now pumping some 8.7
million barrels daily versus Moscow's 8.3 million.
Naimi's relationship with Russia got off to a rocky start when prices fell
after the September 11, 2001, attacks. He refused then to back
price-supporting cuts until Moscow joined an alliance with OPEC to curb
exports.
With that experience still fresh in his mind, Naimi may take the
opportunity next week to warn Russia of the consequences of failing to
cooperate with OPEC.
Naimi has told non-OPEC states in the past that a lack of coordination with
the cartel and a large price drop could force high-cost producers to curb
output.
While Saudi Arabia boasts the cheapest production costs in the world of
$1-$2 a barrel, Russia, heavily dependent on oil revenues, has costs of up
to $7 a barrel.
"Russia does not want to find itself in a price war with OPEC," said a
senior Middle East oil industry official.
Investment opportunities in Saudi Arabia's massive natural gas sector are
also on the agenda.
Russia's gas giant Gazprom, the world's top gas producer, is keen to gain
access to new markets and Riyadh has re-launched a gas investment opening
after it cancelled projects with Western supermajors in July.
But some analysts say investing in the Saudi gas sector may be of little
interest to Moscow, which for now is focusing on Central Asia's upstream
and Europe's downstream.
Given the high-powered Saudi delegation, talks are likely to feature
politics -- mainly Russia's concerns that Muslim Chechen separatist rebels
may be linked with Saudi extremists.
"Saudi Arabia will make clear that it is very supportive of any position
against terrorism in Chechnya or anywhere else in the world," said a Saudi
source close to the delegation.
*******
#19
pravda.ru
August 28, 2003
Sovoks of the World, Unite!
PRAVDA.Ru's U.S. correspondent Robert Ford tells us about a new satirical
website devoted Russia's present and Soviet past. Russophiles will find
"Sovok of the Week" is a thoughtful and funny place to visit
Like pornography, the category of Sovok defies easy definition. Anyone who
has seen or talked to (or, more accurately, listened to) a Sovok will
immediately notice certain identifiable traits - an inherent laziness
bordering on indolence, an insatiable drive for striking bargains and
cutting deals, an envious disdain for the success of others, a penchant for
offering unsolicited and longwinded advice, and a propensity to pepper
one-s speech with proverbs and quotes, ranging from folk wisdom to
Pushkin-s verses to Brezhnev-s speech at the 25th Party Congress. One site
on the web has its sole purpose to educate the public about the concept of
"Sovok" and, introduce this elusive and endearing concept to worldwide
audiences who had not grown up singing the Internationale.
The founders and editors of the "Sovok of the Week" website Vadim Jigoulov,
Boris Zelyonyi, and Andrei Dyachenko, three Russian immigrants living in
southeastern Michigan, set out to do just that. Launched on May Day 2003,
the site has featured original content dedicated to providing Sovok-style
commentary on obscure and bizarre news stories from around the world and
pointing out, through entertaining stories, what Sovok is. The main feature
of the site is the sporadically-nominated Sovok of the Week v recent
nominees have included the president of China, the architects of the
Nigerian email scam, and an unfortunate Muscovite laid low by a sudden
thunderstorm ("Sovok Struck By Lightning!"). Additional stories chronicle
the founders' trials and tribulations as they adjust to life in the
capitalist West. The regularly updated Review Section highlights such
beloved Sovok cultural icons as Jerome K. Jerome's Three Men in a Boat,
John Galsworthy-s Forsythe Saga, and Alla Pugacheva. Heartsick Sovoks
longing for the love of an unattainable woman can consult the site-s
resident advice columnists - Aunt Klava and Uncle Igor, Boris' aged
relatives from Voronezh. Armed with nearly two centuries of Sovok wisdom
between them, Klava and Igor field questions on everything from how to fix
squeaky brakes to cures for the common cold, dispensing advice in the best
traditions of "strana sovetov" (land of advice). Other interactive features
include polls, a chatroom, and creative writing contests, all spruced up
with an unquestionably sovokish attitude that should be instantly familiar
to anyone who has spent time in the former Soviet Union or who longs for
the good old days.
Since it debut, the site has grown steadily in popularity and attracted
tens of thousands of hits from around the world. The site was featured in
a July 21, 2003 article in The Moscow Times (Matt Bivens, "Sovoks Just Keep
Talking"). Vadim, Boris, and Andrei plan to expand the scope of the site
to encompass a wider coverage, globalizing the concept of Sovok beyond the
borders of the former Soviet Union. Recent stories have featured
"international Sovoks" from the US, China, and the heart of darkest Africa.
So, "Sovok of the Week", an online homage to Sovok culture, is there to
take you down memory lane, help you relive the events and personalities of
the not-so-distant past, and walk you through the winding maze that is
Sovok mentality, a phenomenon that is certain to outlive the Soviet Union
and be with us for decades to come.
"Sovok of the Week" www.sovokoftheweek.com.
*******
Web page for CDI Russia Weekly:
http://www.cdi.org/russia
Archive for Johnson's Russia List:
http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson
With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and
the MacArthur Foundation
A project of the Center for Defense Information (CDI)
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