#7 - JRL 7304
Novye Izvestia
August 27, 2003
CHECHNYA: CLEANED-UP ELECTIONS
The president of Chechnya: myths and reality
Author: Sergei Kovalev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
IN A STATE OF EMERGENCY, VOTING CANNOT BE ANYTHING LIKE AN EXPRESSION OF FREE WILL. BOTH RUSSIAN LAW AND INTERNATIONAL LAW PROHIBIT HOLDING ELECTIONS UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES - WHEN A NATION OR A REGION IS AT WAR. THE UPCOMING CHECHEN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE AS ILLEGITIMATE AS THE REFERENDUM.
A very severe, though not officially declared, state of emergency is in force in Chechnya now. Curfew begins in villages when darkness sets in, and checkpoints are still on the roads. In a state of emergency, voting cannot be anything like an expression of free will. Both Russian law and international law prohibit holding elections under such circumstances.
How can candidates campaign freely, as the law requires, if there is no freedom of movement? Neither does Chechnya have free media these days. The public is offered only one viewpoint - that of Akhmad Kadyrov's supporters.
Therefore, the upcoming Chechen presidential election will be as illegitimate as the referendum held on March 23. Chechen residents will once again take vote fearing of clean-ups, as well as during the referendum.
Any candidates the Kremlin doesn't like are out of the election race. They are not on the list and it is impossible to vote in their favor. As a matter of fact, the federal authorities are free to withdraw and let everything flow. Any outcome will be favorable for them. Meanwhile, in my opinion, the circle of real contenders for Chechen presidency doesn't include Akhmad Kadyrov alone. Kadyrov is far from being the most suitable figure for the Kremlin. His guards are actually eliminating the remains of the Chechen resistance. As far as I know him, Kadyrov doesn't like being harnessed. It won't be a surprise to me if anybody more appeasable wins the elections.
Moreover, Kadyrov's real popularity rating among the Chechens is not high. Aslan Maskhadov enjoys support of more people in Chechnya than Akhmad Kadyrov, but he has few supporters as well. He could only gain serious support if he'd begin the talks.
Chechen residents have many grievances against Maskhadov, but many also understand his difficulties, understand the tragedy of this person. During the lull between the two wars, the Kremlin was undermining the reputation of Maskhadov as president by all available means, including funding Basayev. Step by step, Maskhadov had been deprived of all opportunities for controlling the situation in Chechnya. This hadn't been hard, since being a novice in politics he behaved naively and credulously. His tragedy is that he was doing his best to avoid a civil war in Chechnya - and he averted it, at a cost which everybody knows now.
The upcoming elections in Chechnya are started with a sole purpose of have a say before the federal Duma elections: "The situation in Chechnya is finally getting settled - here come the elections. Therefore, vote for us, the ruling party."
(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)
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