#8 - JRL 7286
Izvestia
August 12, 2003
SUMMER WAR OF SPECIES
Rumors on resignations of Alexander Voloshin and Mikhail Kasianov
circulate in Moscow
Author: Svetlana Babayeva, Alexander Sadchikov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
SOME TV CHANNELS REPORTED LAST FRIDAY THAT PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN
BOOTED PREMIER MIKHAIL KASIANOV AND DIRECTOR OF THE PRESIDENTIAL
ADMINISTRATION ALEXANDER VOLOSHIN. THE SENSATIONAL PIECE OF NEWS WAS
IMMEDIATELY CORRECTED AND REPORTED AS THE RUMOR CIRCULATING IN MOSCOW.
BORED POLITICAL CIRCLES GENERATE THRILLING RUMORS AND SPECULATIONS.
WHO MAY HOPE TO BENEFIT?
RESIGNATIONS IN THE UPPER ECHELONS OF THE STATE RUMORED AGAIN
the presidential administration did not confirm the resignations.
As a matter of fact, it denounced the reports officially even before
they were made.
RIA-Novosti news agency reported on August 7, "The Kremlin
denounces the rumors on resignation of Director of the Presidential
Administration Alexander Voloshin reported by foreign media. "It does
not have anything to do with the true state of affairs," a high
ranking Kremlin official said. Actually, rumors on Voloshin's
resignation appear regularly. The chain of his "resignations" began in
March 2000 when Vladimir Putin was elected the president. The logic of
the rumors is simple: sooner or later the president has to begin
ousting his predecessor's team. Rumors on Mikhail Kasianov's
resignation appear less frequently, but the war on him is harsher.
Suffice it to recall the attempt to nominate Kasianov for president or
leaks to the media that some business tycoons allegedly conspired to
make him the successor.
Dismissing high ranking officials when they are on the leave of
absence has been a tradition in Russia. These last several years,
however, it was broken.
As a matter of fact, Kasianov's resignation would have looked odd
at this point. Firstly, steps like that are better taken after the
election when staff purges, complete or partial, are logical and
expected by society. Dismissing the premier at this point will only be
logical for promotion of somebody who will retain his post after the
presidential election when the Cabinet is supposed to be reconfirmed.
Such rumors are circulating too: allegedly, Kasianov has alienated the
majority of clans and has best be replaced with somebody.
It should be noted, however, that the situation is not the best
for replacement of the premier. "The war of species" as one of the
involved persons called the confrontation of clans and teams close to
Putin has reached its peak. It follows that choosing a new premier
will be difficult because every clan will promote its own candidate.
Putin is not a man who will jeopardize relations with his own team or
even a part of it. Besides, lawmakers are away. If the president
booted the premier now, it will be necessary to call Duma deputies
back to Moscow and arrange emergency meetings.
Replacement of director of the presidential administration will
not be logical either. Sure, Voloshin has been in the Kremlin for a
long time already, but who will replace a key member of the team on
the eve of the election? Besides, he may decide to resign of his own
volition...
So, who is spreading the rumors and why? Specialists do not rule
out the possibility that the rumors originate in the Kremlin itself or
somewhere close to it. Foreign journalists (the ones who were the
first to report the resignations) added the situation with YUKOS to
the war of teams and clans, multiplied the result by the president's
silence, recalled Russian traditions, and ended up with two
resignations.
How real the scenario is? A lot of political decisions in Russia
are illogical and unexplainable by ordinary logic, and that is why
everything is possible. Including the offer of premiership to Boris
Gryzlov (there are such rumors in Moscow), transfer of Nikolai
Patrushev from the post of director of the Federal Security Service to
Voloshin's post, the president's idea of making Mikhail Khodorkovsky
or at least Oleg Deripaska the premier. On the other hand, nothing at
this point warrants such radical dismissals and promotions. (Translated by A.
Ignatkin)
Aug. 12, 2003:
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