#19 - JRL 7282
Wall Street Journal
August 8, 2003
Cheek by Jowl in Kyrgyzstan
By VLADIMIR SOCOR
Mr. Socor is a senior fellow of the Washingon-based Institute of Advanced
Strategic & Political Studies.
This month, as the Journal notes in an editorial today, NATO is taking over the command of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. Allied and partner countries are increasing their contributions in troops and assets to the post-conflict phases of this operation. Its main goal is to provide durable security in Afghanistan in the wake of the U.S.-led victory over al Qaeda and Taliban forces, so as to preclude any reemergence of violent Islamist or terrorist sanctuaries there.
The U.S. air base in Kyrgyzstan played a major role in the final combat phase of the Afghanistan operation, and is now slated to support the stabilization effort as well. Located at Manas near the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, this is the largest American base operating in ex-Soviet Central Asia, and it also hosts allied planes and troops. The creation of this base -- along with the U.S. base at Khanabad in Uzbekistan and facilities in Tajikistan -- marks a historic breakthrough: Western forces are setting foot in Asia's heartland, the former exclusive preserve of land empires. It is a geopolitical revolution, but not only that. While reflecting current and foreseeable requirements of antiterrorist operations, the Western footprint in Central Asia highlights the broader process of Western enlargement, which was already under way before 2001, and accelerated after 9/11.
The U.S. opened its base in Kyrgyzstan in December 2001 as a result of a diplomatic achievement creditable to the Pentagon, and personally to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who flew to Central Asia and reached agreements with the host governments. The base is named Peter Ganci, in honor of the New York City Fire Department chief who died in the line of duty on September 11 in the World Trade Center. The base shares the runway of Kyrgyzstan's international airport, Manas, which is capable of handling strategic transport and bomber planes.
At the moment, the base accommodates more than 1,500 troops and some 30 planes, which include F-16 multipurpose fighters, C-130 Hercules transport planes, and KC-135 aerial tankers. Most troops and planes are American, with allied countries contributing. NATO members Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Spain and Italy, as well as Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, have since December 2001 taken turns in deploying troops and planes to Manas.
By all indications, the base is here to stay for the long haul. Under a recent U.S.-Kyrgyz agreement, the original one-year lease has been prolonged for another three years, with an option for further prolongations. The base area has just been increased from the original 12 hectares to 300 hectares. The U.S. has just budgeted $37 million for construction work and operations at the base. Water and sewage lines are being installed this year, and mobile homes (in place of tents) are planned for next year.
In deeply impoverished Kyrgyzstan, the American presence represents the single most important source of cash revenue. Besides the rent, the U.S. pays $7,000 per takeoff and landing of each plane (allied planes pay similar fees), as well as paying dollars to Kyrgyz suppliers of goods and services (here as in many non-Western countries, it is government protégés who secure the most lucrative contracts) and creating dollar-paying jobs for locals. The Americans have repaired and modernized the Soviet-era airport, runway and flight-safety equipment, with the result that Manas can now function as a modern international civilian airport while sharing the facilities with the U.S. base. Apart from this, U.S. economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan rose to $92 million in 2002 -- part of it represents an indirect compensation for the government's political decision to host American forces in the country.
Until very recently, Kyrgyzstan's own forces were considered the weakest of the weak in Central Asia. In 1999 and 2000 an Islamist armed group, based on both sides of the Afghan-Tajik border, carried out incursions into Kyrgyzstan, aiming to penetrate into densely-populated Uzbek areas, or at least to establish impregnable sanctuaries in Kyrgyzstan's mountains. Remarkably, the armed column had made its way past thousands of Russian army and border troops across Tajikistan to Kyrgyzstan. The attackers could only be stopped after the U.S., Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Russia rushed supplies and logistical support to the beleaguered Kyrgyz forces. The American and Turkish support proved by far the most timely and effective, leading to a steady expansion of security assistance to Kyrgyzstan since then.
Last year and this, the U.S. has provided millions of dollars worth of night vision equipment and communications systems for Kyrgyz border troops; is training noncommissioned officers for mountain troops, special antiterrorist forces, and peacekeeping units; and is holding military-medical trainings that focus on combat rescue operations. Plans for 2004 include joint exercises for special troops, rapid-reaction forces, and peacekeeping units. A draft treaty on U.S.-Kyrgyzstzan military relations envisages the provision of assistance in anti-terrorism training and military reform.
Under NATO aegis, the PIMS (Partnership for Peace Information Management
System) program will be expanded to provide e-mail and internet access to the
Kyrgyz Defense Ministry and its units. Turkey, for its part, is providing
training to Kyrgyz mountain troops for the third consecutive year. NATO's
Secretary-General, Lord Robertson, on an inspection visit to Kyrgyzstan last
month said that security assistance to this and other Central Asian countries is
slated to increase.
Apart from anti-terrorism uses in Afghanistan and Central Asia, this U.S. base might play a role in the future. Contingency planning was under way prior to 9/11 with a view to supporting the independence and security of China's neighbors, in the hypothetical event that Chinese policies take an expansionist turn in the years ahead. In that case, the location of Manas has the advantage of bringing the strategic missile bases in western China within range of U.S. tactical aviation.
The Kremlin sought unsuccessfully to stop Central Asian countries from hosting American forces after 9/11. A year later, it pressured Kyrgyzstan into consenting to the establishment of a Russian base in the country. The draft agreement is now due for signing, and President Vladimir Putin hopes to open the base personally in October in Kyrgyzstan. The current plans envisage only a few hundred Russian troops and a small number of obsolescent Su-25 and Su-27 planes to be stationed there, under the nominal aegis of the CIS Collective Security Organization.
The Russian base in Kyrgyzstan is largely a political gesture. Militarily, it is no match for the American one. Its location, however, says everything. It will be situated at Kant airport, only 30 kilometers from the Manas base. It will be well positioned to monitor U.S. and allied activities there, as well as to demand that flight plans and schedules of the Manas base be negotiated with the Russians for safety reasons. The Kremlin could have used the Osh base in southern Kyrgyzstan, close to Tajikistan and Afghanistan, hundreds of kilometers away from Manas. But it preferred Kant mainly because of its proximity to the U.S. base.
Officially, Moscow takes the position that the Manas base should exist only for the term of the Enduring Freedom operation in Afghanistan. The U.S. takes the position that its base in Kyrgyzstan is "not permanent," but will exist "as long as necessary." Now that Russia is creating its own base in Kyrgyzstan, any unilateral American closure becomes less likely. The Kyrgyz government will be more interested than ever in hosting American and allied troops to provide for the country's and the region's security.
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